Archive for Manny Parra

On Saturday, Milwaukee Brewers manager Ken Macha announced that David Bush will slot into the fourth spot in the rotation behind Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf and Doug Davis. The 30 year-old Bush is coming off of a grisly 2009 campaign in which he had a Boeing-level ERA and missed time in June and July with a right triceps tear after Hanley Ramirez scorched him with a comebacker. Is there any fantasy value to be had here?

In 114.1 innings pitched, the Wake Forest product had a 6.38 ERA. As you might expect, he wasn’t that bad: Bush’s expected FIP (xFIP), based on K’s, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, was a not-terrible-but still-mediocre 4.79. He managed to punch out 7.01 batters per nine frames, while issuing 2.91 BB/9. Those are quality numbers. But, as has often been the case in his career, Bush was battered by the long ball: he surrendered 1.5 HR/9.

Bush wasn’t particularly unlucky in terms of his fly balls becoming fan mementos. His HR/FB rate was 12 percent, close to his 11.7 percent career average and within the typical 10-12% rate for pitchers. It’s just that hitters are lofting the ball far more often against Bush:

Since his halcyon 2006 season (3.8 Wins Above Replacement), Bush has seen his groundball rate dip every year. He had a 46.6 GB% in ’06, 43.4% in 2007, 41.1% in 2008 and just a 34.4% rate of grounders this past season. Consequently, his HR/9 figures have climbed from 1.11 in 2006, 1.3 in 2007, 1.41 in 2008 and the aforementioned 1.5 mark in 2009. Bush’s xFIP last year was over a full run higher than his work in ’06.

With a kitchen sink approach to pitching, Bush tosses at least five different pitches (his Pitch F/X data identifies an occasional two-seamer as well). His fastball has never been known for its zip, but it averaged a career-low 87.9 MPH last year and was bushwhacked for a -1.36 runs/100 pitches value. That was the 11th-worst mark among starters with at least 110 innings pitched.

Perhaps feeling that his fastball had abandoned him, Bush threw the pitch a career-low 49 percent of the time. Whether you consider them separate pitches or not (the Baseball Info Solutions pitch data does), his slider (+0.20 runs/100) and cutter (+1.06) were effective. However, Bush’s slow curve (-0.15) and changeup (-4.46) rated poorly.

With fewer fastballs thrown (Bush’s fastball percentage has gradually dropped from 57 percent in ’06 to last year’s 49 percent mark), he has placed fewer pitches over the plate:

Bush’s percentage of pitches in the strike zone, 2006-2009 (MLB average that year in parentheses)

2006: 56.5% (52.6%), +7% above the MLB average
2007: 53.9% (50.3%), +7%
2008: 51.8% (51.1%), +1%
2009: 50.5% (49.3%), +2%

His first-pitch strike percentage has fallen from the 62 percentage range in ’06 and ’07 to a major league average 58 percent last year. Not coincidentally, Bush’s walk rate has gone from immaculate to merely good.

Bush’s BABIP (.324 last year) will likely fall, and he should do a better job of stranding runners on base (63.3 LOB% in 2009, compared to a 68.6% career rate). But to be a fantasy option, Bush must prove he’s healthy and regain his once-average fastball (career -0.19 runs/100), rather than continuing to chuck a pitch that looks like a beach ball to major league hitters.

It’s hard to recommend him, given his evaporating groundball rate and increasing rate of free passes handed out. CHONE calls for a 4.79 FIP, while ZiPS shows a 4.57 FIP forecast. It’s possible that Bush could have some value in NL-only leagues, but I can’t see him becoming a good mixed league pick.

Now that Bush is in the rotation, there’s a three-way ruckus for the fifth spot between Manny Parra (chronicled here), Jeff Suppan and Chris Narveson. Given that Soup’s French Onion is better than his fastball, Parra looks like the best option.

Catch Brewers southpaw Manny Parra on a good day, and you’ll come away highly impressed. Low-90’s velocity, a quality curve and a sweet changeup/splitter? Maybe, you think, the Brewers’ rotation can amount to more than Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf and “staff.”

But take in a Parra start when he’s having an off day, and you’ll be convinced that he’s taking pitching lessons from Charlie Brown. Walks and hits pile up with such rapidity that the official scorer gets carpal tunnel.

Parra was Milwaukee’s 26th round pick in the 2001 amateur draft, but don’t let that fool you. He was a draft-and-follow selection who pitched for American River Junior College in 2002, eventually inking with the Brewers for a cool $1.55 million bonus. Parra cobbled together a superb minor league track record, punching out 8.6 batters per nine frames with 2.5 BB/9.

Injuries, however, threatened to put the skids on his burgeoning career. Parra strained a pectoral muscle in 2003, missed a big chunk of the 2004 campaign with shoulder weakness and was shelved in July of 2005 with more shoulder troubles. Baseball America noted that Parra would “over-rotate in his delivery, slowing his arm down,” which led to “nagging injuries.” The 6-3 lefty went under the knife to repair a damaged rotator cuff in August of 2005.

Though all of those ailments put him behind the development curve, Parra’s stuff remained tantalizing. BA ranked him the second-best prospect in Milwaukee’s system prior to 2008, following a 2007 season in which he aced AA and AAA (a combined 8.9 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 106.2 IP, with a perfect game in AAA for good measure) while making his big league debut. Parra did suffer a broken thumb on a bunt attempt with the Brewers, but there weren’t any long-term consequences.

Given a chance to make 29 starts and three relief appearances for the Brewers in 2008, Parra whiffed 7.97 batters per nine innings while issuing 4.07 BB/9. He posted a 4.39 ERA, but his xFIP (3.85) was even more encouraging. Parra’s 78.2% contact rate was below the 80.8% MLB average, and he burned worms with a 51.6 GB%.

Manny needed to do a better job of not falling prey to hitter’s counts, as his 55.1 first-pitch strike percentage fell well short of the 58.6% big league average. But with better luck (his BABIP was .337, and his HR/FB% was 13.5), it was easy to envision Parra emerging as a strong sidekick to Gallardo.

Last offseason, former Rotographs contributor Peter Bendix wrote a glowing assessment of Parra’s talents. Here’s the money quote:

Parra is exactly the type of pitcher you should be targeting for 2009. He is a good bet for improvement for two reasons: he suffered from bad luck in 2008 – a high HR/FB and a very-high BABIP – so he figures to improve upon his ERA simply due to regression to the mean; and he is also a good bet to improve in his actual skill, due to his track record and age.

A combination of improvement and regression should lead to Manny Parra being a steal in 2009.

Instead of improving in 2009, Parra compiled an ERA (6.36) that made Jeff Suppan Braden Looper blush. Parra was demoted to AAA Nashville from late June to early July. What in the name of Bernie Brewer happened?

In 140 frames, Parra whiffed 7.46 hitters per nine innings. His contact rate (79.6%) was a bit higher than in 2008. Plus, his swinging strike rate fell from an excellent 9.3% in ’08 to a still-solid 8.6% in 2009 (the MLB average for starters is 7.8%). Those figures help to explain the modest dip in his K rate.

Despite throwing more first pitch strikes (57.4 percent) and locating more of his pitches within the strike zone (49.5% in ’09, compared to 48.9% in ’08), Parra handed out 4.95 free passes per nine frames. Perhaps his outside swing percentage explains part of the increase, as it fell from 23.4 percent in 2008 to 22.2 percent this past year (25% MLB average). Though he didn’t get quite as many grounders, Parra still managed an above-average 48.1 GB%.

While clearly not pitching as well as he did in 2008, Parra’s xFIP (4.64) suggests that he also wasn’t the total pitching pinata that his ERA would suggest. His BABIP was obscenely high at .365, and his rate of stranding runners on base (64.7 percent) was below his career 68.3 percent mark.

What are we to make of Parra at this point? In 332.1 major league innings, his BABIP is a whopping .349. His xFIP (4.23) is nearly a full run lower than his actual 5.17 ERA.

There’s nothing in Parra’ batted ball profile that immediately jumps out. His career line drive rate is 20.3 percent. He is a groundball-slanted pitcher. Grounders do have a higher BABIP than fly balls.

But Parra’s career numbers on grounders are incredibly poor:

Parra’s career BAVG on groundballs: .290
Parra’s career SLG% on groundballs: .323

NL BAVG on groundballs, 2007-2009: .237
NL SLG% on groundballs, 2007-2009: .258

Parra’s batting average on grounders is 22 percent higher than the NL average, and his slugging percentage is 25 percent higher than the NL norm.

To be honest, I’m not sure what’s going on here. In its 2006 prospect handbook, Baseball America mentioned that Parra had a proclivity to throw “fat strikes,” leaving him “far more hittable than his stuff should allow.” Manny’s career BABIP in the minors was .321. BABIP figures tend to be higher in the minors, due to a lower level of defensive skill. But that’s still pretty high.

Despite all of the struggles, Parra’s curveball (+0.37 runs per 100 pitches), changeup (+0.39) and splitter (+1.48) actually rate as above-average pitches to this point. His fastball, though? Let’s just say Charlie Brown’s heat gets scorched less often.

Parra’s career run value with his fastball is -1.58 per 100 tosses. That’s fourth-worst among pitchers with 200+ IP over the past three years. When your heater’s effectiveness rates between that of Brandon Backe and Matt Morris, you have a problem.

Batters just don’t swing and miss much against the pitch. According to Joe Lefkwitz’s Pitch F/X Tool, Parra’s whiff rate with his four-seam fastball was 4.6 percent in 2009. The MLB average whiff rate for lefty four-seamers, by contrast, was 6.1 percent.

Does Parra throw “fat” strikes? I’m no Pitch F/X maestro, but I did my best to try and quantify what might constitute a fat pitch. Pitch F/X keeps track of a number called “px.” Here’s Mike Fast’s definition:

px: the left/right distance, in feet, of the pitch from the middle of the plate as it crossed home plate. The PITCHf/x coordinate system is oriented to the catcher’s/umpire’s perspective, with distances to the right being positive and to the left being negative.

Home plate is about two feet across. I classified pitches that were five inches to either side of the middle of the plate as “fat” pitches (I got the idea from Pitch F/X guru Harry Pavlidis , who does something similar). Here’s what I got:

MLB average “fat” percentage for lefty four-seam fastballs: 35.1%
Parra’s “fat” percentage for four-seam fastballs: 38.5%

Manny does seem to leave his heater down the middle more often than most. Parra is a good example of simple velocity not being everything for a pitcher: he sits at 92 MPH with his fastball, but gets few whiffs and tends to catch too much of the plate.

At this point, Manny Parra is a mystery wrapped in an enigma stuffed in a Chorizo. Here are his projections for the 2010 season (Parra, not the Chorizo):

CHONE: 159 IP, 7.3 K/9, 4.19 BB/9, 0.96 HR/9, 4.81 ERA
Bill James: 147 IP, 7.96 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.59 ERA

Now 27, Parra has the skill set to be a mid-rotation starter, perhaps with a little upside. But he’s going to have to do a better job of locating his fastball in order to succeed. His surface numbers in 2009 are abysmal, but don’t totally write him off. With better location and a little luck, he could be a decent bargain in 2010.

Here on Wednesday in the final week of the season most leagues have already passed their deadline for waivers. But for those of you in daily transaction leagues with moves still available and innings left to play with, there are no shortage of pitchers to consider. Here are the pitchers going Thursday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Kip Wells (1%) – Has a home start against Carpenter and St. Louis. After being designated for assignment earlier this year by the Nationals, Wells hooked up with the Reds. He pitched three games out of the bullpen and then moved into the rotation for his last six outings. Wells is 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.178 WHIP in that span. He’s appeared in four games this year in Great American Ball Park, where he is 1-0 with a 3.80 ERA. Wells has made two relief appearances versus the Cardinals and has allowed 1 ER in 3.2 IP.

Nate Robertson (4%) – Has a home start against Baker and the Twins. After spending most of the season in the bullpen, Robertson has made three straight starts for the Tigers. He is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA in that span, with 11 BB and 8 Ks in 12 IP. Robertson has a 3.70 home ERA this season and has 6 IP and 2 ER against the Twins with one win this year.

Manny Parra (28%) – Has a road start in Colorado versus Cook. After starting the season 3-8, Parra is 8-2 with a 4.95 ERA in his last 13 starts. This year he is 6-7 with a 6.87 ERA in road starts. Parra has yet to pitch this season in Coors Field.

Garrett Mock (5%) – Has a road start in Atlanta versus Hanson. Mock has dropped his last five decisions and has a 7.03 ERA and has a 1.656 WHIP in his last six games. He gave up 4 ER in 5 IP 9/26 versus the Braves and is 0-2 with a 6.31 ERA versus them this season. Overall, Mock is 2-3 with a 4.87 ERA in road games this season.

Felipe Paulino (3%) – Has a road start in Philadelphia versus Lee. Paulino has lost seven consecutive decisions and has a 7.71 ERA in his last 10 games. He is 1-6 with an 8.37 ERA in road games this year and has yet to face the Phillies this season.

Chris Waters (0%) – Has a road start in Tampa versus Garza. Waters was 9-7 in Triple-A this season before getting the call to Baltimore. He has made four relief appearances for the Orioles and this will be the 28-year old’s first start of the season after making 11 in 2008. The lefty is a fastball/slider pitcher.

Carlos Carrasco (11%) – Has a road start in Boston versus Lester. Carrasco was part of the package received from Philadelphia in the Lee trade. He was 5-1 in Triple-A for Columbus after the deal with a 3.19 ERA. Carrasco has made four starts for Cleveland and has given up four or more earned runs in each of them. On the plus side, Carrasco has a 2.19 GB/FB mark. However, when batters get the ball in the air, they hit it out of the park 37.5 percent of the time.

Paul Maholm (43%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Samardzija. In his last seven starts, Maholm is 2-2 with a 2.89 ERA and he has allowed just 2 HR in 46.2 IP. Maholm is 4-6 with a 5.54 ERA in road games this season. In his only game against the Cubs, he allowed 7 ER in 4 IP but came away with a no-decision.

Jeff Samardzija (6%) – Has a home start against Maholm and the Pirates. A candidate for the rotation in Spring Training, Samardzija made his second start of the season in his last outing, in which he gave up 3 ER (on 2 HR) in 5 IP and took the loss. The gopher ball has been a problem for Samardzija this season but it has been more pronounced on the road. He has allowed 2 HR in 15.2 IP at Wrigley but 5 HR in 19 IP on the road.

Doug Fister (10%) – Has a home start against Anderson and the A’s. After a strong showing at the start of his major league career, Fister is 0-3 with an 8.80 ERA in his last three starts. He is 2-2 with a 4.31 ERA in home starts this season. Fister has faced Oakland once this season and allowed 1 ER in 5 IP and got a no-decision.

It is a three Hernandez and two Martinez week! Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 20

Fausto Carmona – Since returning from the minors, Carmona has pitched well, with a 2.65 ERA in three starts. But he has allowed more walks (10) than strikeouts (7), his WHIP checks in at 1.588 and his record is 0-1. If those are the numbers he puts up when he is pitching well, what happens with a bad outing or two? Leave him on the bench for his two starts this week.

Manny Parra – It is tough to win games with a 1.84 WHIP yet that is exactly what Parra is doing. He has won his last four starts despite a 6.48 ERA. Unless you are desperate for wins, they are simply not worth the ratios. And with those ratios there is little chance that the wins will continue to follow.

Oliver Perez – Before being sent to the minors, Perez had a 9.97 ERA in five games. Since returning he has posted a 3.72 ERA in seven games. With Perez you are sure of two things: his WHIP is going to be terrible and he is going to pile up strikeouts (38 in 38.2 IP in his last seven games). His ERA has been acceptable since returning so the wild card is his wins total. In his last three starts he left the game with the lead only to see the bullpen blow wins for him. Perez does well against lefty-heavy lineups and this week he faces the Braves and the Phillies. He has won six of 10 career decisions versus Atlanta and Philadelphia features lefty swingers Utley, Howard and Ibanez. Put him in your lineup this week if you can take the WHIP damage.

David Price – The HR rate has really hurt Price this season, especially on the road. He has allowed 13 HR this year and nine of those have come away from Tropicana Field. In home games, Price is 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.286 WHIP. Make sure he is active this week with home starts against Baltimore and Texas.

Scott Richmond – Before going to the disabled list with shoulder tendinitis, Richmond was pitching his best ball of the season, going seven or more innings in his last three starts before hitting the DL. His first start back was rough and then he allowed 3 ER in 6 IP his last outing in Yankee Stadium. Richmond has a tough start versus Josh Beckett this week, but I still like him as a two-start pitcher this week with his two home games.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 20 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lincecum, Beckett, F. Hernandez, Burnett, Verlander, Carpenter, Jimenez, Nolasco, Lowe, Hanson, Buehrle, Dempster, Scherzer, Billingsley, E. Santana, Feldman, Hunter, Norris, Liriano, Pavano, Garland, P. Martinez, Lilly, Bannister, Correia, L. Hernandez, Villanueva, Hart, Bailey, Mazzaro, D. Hernandez, Bell, Jef Weaver, Boggs, J. Martinez, Stammen, Carrillo, Berken.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 18 and how they did.

Baker – Advised to start. W, 4.76 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.15 WHIP (2 starts)
Latos – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.08 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.15 WHIP (2)
Morton – Advised to start. 4.09 ERA, 5 Ks, 1.55 WHIP (2)
Penny – Advised to sit. 7.50 ERA, 5 Ks, 1.33 WHIP (1)
Wells – Advised to sit. W, 4.26 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.42 WHIP (2)

On the surface, Manny Parra had a decent season for the Brewers in 2008. He posted an okay-but-below-average 4.39 ERA. He racked up 147 strikeouts in 165 innings, but only managed 10 wins and posted a 1.54 WHIP. However, beneath the surface we can see that Parra actually pitched pretty well, and is a good bet to improve in 2009.

First of all, Parra was hindered by some bad luck in 2008. His .337 BABIP was sixth highest among starting pitchers, and his 13.5% HR/FB was higher than league average as well. Both of these numbers figure to regress to the mean in 2009.

Furthermore, Parra showed an above-average ability to induce swinging strikes, an excellent sign for the young southpaw. Batters swung and missed at 9.3% of Parra’s pitches – above league average of 7.8% for starters.

He also induced ground balls on 51.6% of his balls in play, and limited fly balls to only 26.6% of his balls in play. This bodes quite well for him, as ground balls rarely become extra base hits and cannot become homers (plus, they can become double plays). Generally, lots of grounders + lots of strikeouts = lots of success.

Additionally, Parra has a track record of success in the minors. In 2007 he was excellent, accumulating 106 strikeouts and only 33 walks in 106 innings across double- and triple-A. Furthermore, he allowed only three homers in that time.

On the downside, Parra walked far too many hitters – 75, to be precise. He threw 39.3% of his pitches for balls – well above league average of 36.5%. However, given his track record, there is reason to believe that Parra will be able to improve upon this. While he was always somewhat wild in the minors, his career minor league walk rate is “only” 2.45 batters per nine. Furthermore, if Parra is able to throw fewer balls next year, it will also allow him to pitch deeper into games, allowing him more opportunities to strike batters out and pick up wins.

Even if Parra throws fewer balls next year, his relatively high walk total may prevent him from being much of an asset in WHIP. However, he will strike a lot of batters out, and the Brewers figure to give him a decent amount of run support, allowing him to pick up a fair amount of wins.

Parra is exactly the type of pitcher you should be targeting for 2009. He is a good bet for improvement for two reasons: he suffered from bad luck in 2008 – a high HR/FB and a very-high BABIP – so he figures to improve upon his ERA simply due to regression to the mean; and he is also a good bet to improve in his actual skill, due to his track record and age.

A combination of improvement and regression should lead to Manny Parra being a steal in 2009.