Archive for madison bumgarner

Continuing our analysis of the RotoGraphs Reader Mock Draft, here’s a look at Rounds 5 through 8… Read the rest of this entry »

Madison Bumgarner | Giants
Despite some poor looking fantasy numbers, Bumgarner has been damn good lately in both fantasy and reality. His roto numbers over the past thirty days are skewed by his disastrous outing against the Twins in which he faced ten batters and gave up nine hits (his one out was via the strikeout). But even in that outing, Bumgarner threw twenty-two of his twenty-five pitches for strikes and refused to yield a homer. Bumgarner also had a poor fantasy outing against the Padres before the All-Star break, but once again, he did not allow a dinger.

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Back on April 21st, I wrote a Kicking Rocks piece entitled, “Don’t Chase the Ace” in which I lamented going pitching heavy in my draft.  I was disgruntled with the fact that my offense was anemic while I continued to watch my ratios explode with each and every start from my supposed stable of high quality aces.  While there were several of you that felt my pain, there were also many of you that criticized me for my concerns so early on in the season.  I was then asked to re-visit this 3 months into the season, so as we get ready to head into the All Star Break, here we go… Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 9.

Erik Bedard – After losing his first four decisions, Bedard has quietly put up some monster numbers in his last five starts. In that span, he’s 3-0 with a 1.09 ERA with 28 Ks and 7 BB in 33 IP. While his curveball may not be the unhittable pitch it was back in his pre-injured heyday, he still has an impressive 30.1 O-Swing%. Bedard has a deep repertoire and throws all of his pitches for strikes. He has two home starts this week against East Coast teams. It all adds up to a must-start week.

Madison Bumgarner – Each pitching staff has the guy that seemingly gets no run support and Bumgarner fills that role on the Giants. The offense has provided him with an average run support of 2.27 in his 10 starts, which explains how in his last six games, all Quality Starts, Bumgarner is 1-3. If he can’t get wins when he’s pitching well, what happens if he falters? This week he goes up against two pitchers with a combined 11-4 record this year. And with the Giants now without their cleanup hitter, it seems like a good time to sit the unlucky youngster.

Fausto Carmona – If you look at the WHIP leaders, you’ll see a nice collection of the game’s top pitchers and this year’s success stories. You’ll also find Carmona. So far this season, Carmona is 3-5 with a 4.73 ERA. And this is with a 1.18 WHIP. The last three starts have not been kind, as he has allowed 16 ER in 20.2 IP, thanks in part to 4 HR allowed. This week he goes up against Toronto and Texas, two of the better HR-hitting clubs in the AL. And his start against the Blue Jays is in Toronto, where the Jays have hit 30 HR in 23 games. Keep Carmona on your bench this week.

Charlie Morton – If you haven’t already read it, check out Cameron’s piece on Morton. Basically, Morton has revamped his approach and is now death on RHB. Some in the comments section even compared him to Doc Halladay. I don’t trust pitchers with BB/9 over 4 and Morton’s currently sits at 4.21 BB/9 after nine starts. This week he goes up against the Mets and Phillies, two teams that can easily put five LHB into their lineups. This seems like a week for the wheels to come off the Morton bandwagon so give him a spot on the bench if you can.

Ervin Santana – Everyone seems to be down on Santana because he’s not the pitcher he was in 2008. But the reality is he’s still a pretty good pitcher. The stat that jumps off the page is his 3.59 K/BB ratio, which goes a long way in explaining how both his FIP (3.41) and xFIP (3.52) are lower than his ERA (3.95). In his last two starts, Santana is 2-0 and in 15 IP he’s allowed just 1 ER with 2 BB and 13 Ks. This week he goes up against the Royals and Yankees, two teams struggling after hot starts. Get Santana active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 9 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Lester, Cahill, Billingsley, Kennedy, Wilson, Carpenter, Colon, McClellan, Latos, Arrieta, Vogelsong, T. Hudson, Harang, Davis, Wood, Narveson, Marquis, Holland, McDonald, Penny, Blackburn, Happ, Hochevar, Dickey, Fister, Gee, Francis, L. Hernandez, Saunders, Volstad, Talbot, Sonnanstine, A. Rodriguez, J. Reyes.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 7 pitchers and how they fared.

Garland – Advised to start. 3 Ks, 8.38 ERA, 2.379 WHIP, 9.2 IP, 9 ER
Garza – Advised to start. 3 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 6 IP, 0 ER
Jimenez – Advised to sit. 11 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, 15 IP, 5 ER
Porcello – Advised to start. W, 3 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.375 WHIP, 8 IP, 0 ER
Volquez – Advised to sit. 12 Ks, 9.35 ERA, 1.731 WHIP, 8.2 IP, 9 ER

For years I have preached about the immense depth at starting pitching.  You can find plenty of quality starters for cheap in your draft and, with the help of the waiver wire, can build a successful fantasy rotation without having to invest heavily in an ace or two.  With a nice complement of some quality relievers, you can go cheap on starters and, in turn, bulk up on better hitters.  In the end, your team dominates in the offensive categories, puts up a solid showing in almost all of the pitching categories, and leaves you at the top of your standings by season’s end. Read the rest of this entry »

Both Jonathon Niese and Madison Bumgarner are young lefties having solid seasons, and are going to be kept in a number of leagues. But, what if you have both and have to pick one over the other? We need to examine both Niese and Bumgarner and decide who will be a better player next year, and a couple of years down the road.

Numbers
Niese and Bumgarner’s numbers are nothing spectacular, but when you combine all of their peripherals together, you get a solid pitcher. Niese has a strikeout rate north of 7.5 K/9, with Bumgarner unable to reach the 6.5 mark. Since his strikeout rate is lower, Bumgarner’s walk rate needs to be lower, which it is. Bumgarner walks about two batter every nine innings, while Niese walks about three. This means that Bumgarner’s K/BB is significantly better, coming in around three, while Niese isn’t even at 2.5. That’s Bumgarner’s biggest, and possibly only advantage. Both get enough ground balls to keep me off their case, and Niese’s 47% isn’t leaps and bounds better than Bumgarner’s 45%. Both have FIP’s and xFIP’s close to 4.00, so it’s hard to get a read on who could be better based on the pure numbers. This is where a tool like pitch f/x comes in handy.

Arsenal
Guess what? Their arsenal’s are pretty similar, too. Even with all of the talk about Bumgarner’s velocity, his fastball is hovering around 91 mph this year, and that includes his two-seamer. Niese sits in the 89-90 range, and doesn’t throw his fastball for strikes as often as Bumgarner. Niese also throws a nice slutter, and that is his only pitch with a positive run value. He does a great job of controlling it and getting whiffs, so that shouldn’t be a shock. None of Bumgarner’s secondary offerings are anything special, but he does a good job of throwing them all for strikes. However, Niese has great movement on his curveball, and while it’s whiff% is nothing to write home about (although maybe I just did?), it could be special if he can do a better job of controlling it.

Conclusion
Bumgarner is only 20, while Niese is already the ripe old age of 23. They both have the same physical build, but they use it in different ways. Since I have to pick one, I’d take Niese over Bumgarner because I think he can learn to control himself and lower his walks while upping his K’s, and I don’t know if Bumgarner will ever become more of a strikeout pitcher. If you can, grab both, but I’d rather have Niese.

Chris Sale, White Sox (Owned in 8% of Yahoo leagues)

Bobby Jenks‘ return from a right forearm injury has slowed, opening the door for Sale to snag saves in September. The 6-5, 170 pound beanpole with a low three-quarters delivery threw all of 10.1 innings in the minors after Chicago took him in the first round this past summer, but he’s impressing in the show with premium velocity from the left side.

Sale, slinging his fastball at an average of 96.2 MPH while mixing in low-80’s sliders and upper-80’s changeups, has struck out 23 batters in 17.2 IP. While he has issued 10 walks to go with all those K’s, the Florida Gulf Coast product has a 3.19 xFIP in a tiny sample. White Sox GM Kenny Williams has said that Sale will enter 2011 as a starter, but he’s certainly worth a roster spot closing out games for the South Siders in the meantime.

Madison Bumgarner, Giants (29%)

Bumgarner became a prospect darling on the basis of a mid-90’s fastball that singed batters in the low minors, but panic ensued last season when the 6-4 lefty’s velocity dropped into the upper-80’s. In 2010, Bumgarner has assuaged concerns that he was hurt or destined to fall well short of the expectations that helped him rank as a top-15 farm talent (according to Baseball America) over the past two years.

Still just 21, Bumgarner pitched decently at Triple-A Fresno (82.2 IP, 6.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 4.31 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP, per Minor League Splits). Since being recalled to the majors in late June, he has whiffed 6.36 batters per nine innings, handed out 2.18 BB/9 and has a 4.22 xFIP. Bumgarner hasn’t blown hitters away, with an 84.1% contact rate that’s four percentage points above the big league average, but he is getting hitting his spots. He’s getting a first pitch strike 60% of the time (58.9% MLB average), and has placed 48.4% of his pitches over the plate (46.6% MLB average).

Though Bumgarner was once seen as an unrefined arm with heat and rudimentary secondary stuff, he has made use of all four of his pitches. He’s throwing his fastball about 57%, a mid-80’s slider 20%, a mid-70’s curve 12% and a low-80’s change 11%. Bumgarner’s not getting a ton of whiffs — his fastball has been whiffed at 6% of the time that it has been tossed (about average). His slider has an 8.6% whiff rate (13% MLB average) and his changeup comes in at 10.2% (12.1% MLB average). That leaves his curve (11.9 whiff%, 10.5% MLB average) as the only pitch with an above-average whiff rate.

However, he’s showing sharp control of all his offerings. Bumgarner has thrown his fastball for a strike 67% of the time (60-64% MLB average), 65.1% for his slider (62.7% MLB average), 61.9% for his curve (58% MLB average) and 67.5% for the change of pace (60.9% MLB average).

It’s also worth noting that Bumgarner’s fastball velocity has been on the rise. He sat 89.7 MPH in June, 90.5 MPH in July, 91.6 MPH in August and is averaging 92.8 MPH so far in September. Bumgarner is pretty good right now, but there’s more upside here if he starts flirting with those 2008 radar gun readings.

Chris Davis, Rangers (Owned in seven percent of Yahoo leagues)

Justin Smoak’s Seattle-bound, as the 2008 first-round pick is the prime player acquired by the M’s in the six-player deal sending Cliff Lee to Arlington. That clears the path to big league playing time for Davis, who’ll take over first base duties for the first-place Rangers. Is the third time a charm for Davis, or will his bat fall flat again?

Texas’ fifth-round pick in the ’06 draft has bounced back and forth between the majors and Triple-A Oklahoma City over the past two seasons. The Rangers handed him an everyday spot both years, but Davis’ hacking and contact issues led to demotions in July of ’09 and April of 2010. In the majors, the 6-4, 235 pound lefty batter has crushed the ball when he has gotten a hold of it — he’s got a .221 ISO in 792 career plate appearances, with 18.6% of his fly balls ending up in the cheap seats. His plate discipline, by contrast, has been putrid.

Davis has walked in just 6.2% of his PA, while whiffing 34.6%. His strike zone is huge — here are Davis’ outside swing percentages over the 2008-2010 seasons, divided by the MLB average that season:

2008: 1.47
2009: 1.35
2010: 1.15

Keep in mind that the 2010 figure is based on just 56 PA. Chasing so many pitches off the plate, Davis has often gotten behind in the count. His career first pitch strike percentage is 62.9, while the MLB average is 58-59%.

Contact has also been a big issue — Davis has connected 65.5% of the time that he pulls the trigger overall (81% MLB average), including 74.7% of the time he swings at an in-zone offering (88% MLB average). Over the past three calendar years, he’s got the third-lowest total contact rate and the second-lowest Z-contact rate in the majors (minimum 500 PA).

With plus pop but also a tendency to swing at anything from Lubbock to Houston, Davis has been a Mike Jacobs doppelganger to this point — his big league career triple-slash is .253/.301/.474, with a .330 wOBA and a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA that’s two percent below average (98 wRC+). Happily, the 24-year-old has thumped pitchers with the RedHawks. In 293 PCL PA, Davis batted .354/.403/.555 (his career line in Triple-A is .341/.407/.571 in 614 PA). On the positive side, he hit for power (.201 ISO with Oklahoma City in 2010) and whiffed less than a quarter of the time (24.3 K%). However, that line was boosted by .434 BABIP, and he still wasn’t working many walks (7.8 BB%).

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects Davis to bat .244/.297/.461. CHONE anticipates a .269/.319/.470 line. Davis’ ability to drive the ball makes him an intriguing add in AL-only leagues, but he’s going to have to tighten his strike zone to finally stick at the highest level.

Madison Bumgarner, Giants (16%)

The 20-year-old lefty might not garner quite the same prospect praise these days — where once he cracked the mid-90’s with his fastball, Bumgarner now sits around 90 MPH. His secondary stuff (a low-80’s slider and changeup, as well as a low-70’s curve) remains a work in progress, too. That being said, he’s still worthy of consideration in NL-only formats.

Bumgarner burst on to the scene in 2008, using his high-octane heat to post rates of 10.4 K/9, 1.3 BB/9 and a 1.71 FIP in 141.2 IP. According to Minor League Splits, Bumgarner’s park-and-lucked adjusted FIP in the Low-A South Atlantic League was 2.99. With his velocity on the wane in 2009, the North Carolina prep product’s K rate took a tumble — in 131.1 innings spent mostly in the Double-A Eastern League (he opened the year in the High-A Cal League), Bumgarner had 6.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a park-and-luck-adjusted 4.42 FIP.

He got a late-season cameo with the Giants, but Bumgarner opened 2010 in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. Logging 82.2 innings, the 6-4, 215 pound southpaw punched out 6.4 batters per nine innings, walked 2.4 per nine and had a 4.31 park-and-luck adjusted FIP. Madison has made three starts for San Fran so far, with a 15/5 K/BB ratio and a 4.19 xFIP in 22 IP.

Any owner considering a Bumgarner pick up will need to keep his workload in mind — he has thrown 104.2 innings between Triple-A and the majors in 2010, just 37 frames away from his previous career high established in the Sally League in ’08. The Giants could occasionally skip him or push his starts back. ZiPS thinks he’ll be useful when he does take the mound (5.94 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 4.01 FIP). CHONE is less sanguine — a 4.98 neutralized ERA, with 6.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9. Perhaps Bumgarner isn’t, at least at the moment, the power pitcher we anticipated. But he still could be an above-average MLB starter.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Madison Bumgarner – San Francisco Giants (owned in 9% of Yahoo! leagues)

Last year Bumgarner had velocity issues, with reports of his fastball topping out in the mid-80s. In his two starts in the majors this year, he has averaged 90.3, which is still not the mid-90s he was alleged to have thrown 2-3 years ago, but still a step in the right direction. Bumgarner was 7-1 at Triple-A Fresno, boosted in large part by allowing just 5 HR in 82.2 IP. He has not been so lucky with the gopher ball in the majors, as he has a 16.7 HR/FB ratio in his two starts with the Giants. But Bumgarner survived a rough debut, having to face the Red Sox and a road start in Colorado. He gave the club innings and fantasy owners a nice WHIP (1.14) and a decent K/9 of 6.43. Bumgarner’s xFIP is 3.89 and if he can give fantasy players that ERA the rest of the way, he will be a nice pickup.

Melky Cabrera – Atlanta Braves (owned in 4% of Yahoo! leagues)

The overall numbers are nothing to get excited about but Cabrera has done quite well since Nate McLouth went on the disabled list. Since June 10th, a stretch of 22 games, Cabrera is batting .284 with 7 R and 9 RBIs. While those are still not eye-popping numbers, they represent a huge improvement over what McLouth gave Atlanta, perhaps an indication Cabrera will keep playing even after McLouth gets activated. Also, for a guy available in most leagues, those are numbers that could help, especially in NL-only formats.

Vicente Padilla – Los Angeles Dodgers (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

Since coming off the DL, Padilla has made three starts and the last two have been very good. After giving up 4 ER in 5.1 IP against the Red Sox in his first action in nearly two months, Padilla has tossed 7 IP in back-to-back outings. In those 14 IP, he has allowed 3 ER and has 12 Ks and 2 BB in starts against the Yankees and Giants. Padilla hit 95.5 with his fastball in his last outing and he has a full repertoire of pitches to use against batters, including a sinker, slider and curve.

This spring, Madison Bumgarner will compete with the likes of Todd Wellemeyer, Kevin Pucetas and Joe Martinez for the right to open the 2010 season in San Francisco’s starting rotation. Truth be told, it wouldn’t be much of a contest if ability were the sole consideration. But because workload and service time concerns also play a part in the decision, Bumgarner could end up back in the minors when the Giants head north.

Regardless of whether he cracks the roster from the get go, the 6-4, 215 pound lefty figures to see significant time in the big leagues this season. Is Bumgarner worth targeting on draft day? And, given the disagreement over his ceiling, is he an upper-echelon keeper league target, or merely a good one?

Plucked out of a North Carolina prep school with the 10th pick in the 2007 draft, Bumgarner was a prototypical projection pick: tall and lanky, able to pump premium gas in the low-90’s, and in the early stages of developing breaking and off-speed stuff.

In its draft coverage, Baseball America noted Bumgarner’s 92-94 MPH fastball (occasionally popping the mitt at 97 MPH). But BA also noted that he “tried multiple grips and shapes with his breaking ball, and at times has flashed a fringe-average pitch that has tilt and late snap at 81 mph,” and that his changeup was “a below-average pitch that should improve when and if he throws it more often.”

In 2008, Bumgarner made his pro debut in the Low-A South Atlantic League. He went all Randy Johnson on those poor Sally League hitters. Logging 141.2 innings, Bumgarner whiffed 10.42 batters per nine frames, while looking anything but raw in issuing just 1.33 BB/9. A very low homer rate (0.19 HR/9) contributed to the figure, but his FIP (1.71) looked like a typo.

Bumgarner shot to the top of prospect lists. Baseball America claimed that “there may not be a lefthander with a better fastball than Bumgarner’s.” He sat 93-94 MPH, again touching the upper nineties. BA said that his secondary pitches remained “a work in progress,” but they rated him as the ninth-best talent in the minors.

Bumgarner earned gushing reports from all of the prospect gurus:

Baseball America

“Bumgarner has all the gifts to be a No. 1 starter.”

Kevin Goldstein: #3 overall

“A tall, power left-hander with mid-90’s heat, a plus breaking ball, and impeccable command, Bumgarner was the best pitcher in the minors last year…”

Keith Law: #6 overall

The rudimentary secondary stuff plus his low arm slot had scouts — including me — assuming he was a long way away from the majors. His slider made enormous strides in his first full year in pro ball, and his changeup is now solid-average, no small feat for a pitcher who throws from a low 3/4 slot.

John Sickels: #14 overall (A Grade)

“Health is a risk as with any young pitcher, but incredible performance at a young age and improved secondary stuff stands out.”

This past year, Bumgarner began the year in the High-A California League, where he again made quick work of the opposition (24.1 IP, 23/4 K/BB, 2.05 FIP). Bumped up to the Double-A Eastern League, he posted a minuscule ERA (1.93). For the first time, though, his peripherals weren’t otherworldly.

In 107 innings, Bumgarner struck out a tame 5.8 hitters per nine innings, with 2.52 BB/9 and a 3.56 FIP. His searing fastball lost its second gear, sitting in the high-80’s during the second half of the season (some attribute the drop to too much throwing on the side). Called up to the majors in September to make one start and three relief appearances, Bumgarner tossed his heater at an average of 89.2 MPH.

Over the off-season, Bumgarner seemed to lose some of his luster with prospect evaluators:

Baseball America: #14 overall

“At his best, Bumgarner has shown a mid-90s fastball, a slider with good tilt and an average changeup…Bumgarner pitched at 88-90 mph for most of the second half of last season…His slider still isn’t a finished product and his changeup isn’t entirely trustworthy.”

Kevin Goldstein: #21 overall

“Scouts noted a consistent velocity drop that by the end of the year amounted to a full 5 mph.”

Keith Law: #28 overall

“Bumgarner took a big tumble this year when his velocity gradually declined the deeper he went into the season.”

John Sickels: A- Grade (no top 100 ranking yet)

“Almost went with B+, but strikeout rates aren’t everything. More concerned about dropping velocity.”

As Harry Pavlidis showed recently, concerns over Bumgarner’s lack of zip persist. It doesn’t seem unusual for a pitcher to show less-than-optimum velocity at the beginning of spring training. But given his sapped fastball speed last year, Bumgarner’s radar readings bear watching.

I wouldn’t recommend going out of your way to grab Bumgarner for 2010. CHONE is circumspect, projecting 5.93 K/9, 3.76 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 4.99 FIP. Given his good-not-great slider and changeup, Bumgarner would need to rediscover his ’08 heat in order to make waves in the majors.

For all of “the sky is falling” rhetoric surrounding Bumgarner, it is important to remember that A.) he’s just 20 and B.) he still ranked highly on all prospect lists. True, it is troubling that a pitcher known primarily for his lively fastball is having a hard time hitting 90. However, this could be a good time to nab the southpaw in a keeper league from an owner fretting over the curious case of Bumgarner’s velocity.

Keep an eye on the radar gun when Bumgarner pitches, but don’t abandon ship in keeper leagues while getting 70 cents on the dollar in return.