Archive for Leo Nunez

The closer battle in Florida might seem like just another notch in the ‘relievers are just failed starters’ way of thinking. Both the incumbent, Leo Nunez, and the challenger, Clay Hensley, have started games at different points in their careers. Given the fact that manager Edwin Rodriguez has already said that Nunez will probably get his job back, it’s not a great idea to drop Nunez wholesale. How much of a threat does Hensley actually represent, though?

His present rates look nice – he has a 9.47 K/9 and 3.25 BB/9 that are both above-average even for relievers – and his luck stats don’t seem to suggest a major regression coming (.286 BABIP, 77.7% LOB, 2.88 FIP). Counting on them to continue in the face of his career rates (6.34 K/9, 4.02 BB/9), however, seems dicey at best. The nice groundball rate (51.9% this year, 52.7% career) looks steady and repeatable, and should always give him a stable level of effectiveness to fall back on.

But it’s the major jump in strikeout rate that has made him a closer option. This is the first year he’s spent the entire year in the bullpen, so a jump could be expected. Jeremy Greenhouse found that moving to the bullpen can give you about 0.7 MPH of fastball velocity, and cited research from Tom Tango that you’d expect a reliever to gain about 17% K/PA in the switch. We haven’t seen the velocity jump for Hensley – he has been showing an 88.7 MPH fastball this year, 88.7 MPH career. Hensley has also seen his strikeout rate jump almost 50% over his career rate, so he’s obviously changed something other than his throwing schedule.

Looking at his pitching mix, one thing jumps out immediately. Hensley has gone from featuring his slider as his best second pitch (8.8% this year, 19.8% career) to focusing more on his curveball (22.4% this year, 9.9% career). In general, he’s throwing his secondary pitches more often, as he’s also upped his changeup usage (21.2% this year, 12.5% career). While the changeup and slider are close enough in velocity that the two pitch f/x systems on our site see them differently, the reduced use of the fastball looks legitimate. Given the linear weights on his slider (+16.7 runs career) and curveball (+10.1 runs career) compared to his fastball (+5.3 runs career, -10.7 runs 2008-2009), this seems like a legitimate change in pitching approach – to his benefit.

Still, as strong as his work has been this year, Hensley has only put together 63 innings at this level of play. It’s the first time since his rookie year in 2005 – another year in which he primarily relieved at the major league level – that he’s put up an FIP under four. To compare, Nunez has put up sub-four FIPs in two of the last three years, and he’s had almost a strikeout per inning over his last 120 innings. Still, given the fact that Nunez has a career strikeout rate (7.04 K/9) that is comparable to Hensley’s (especially once you take out this year’s 9.64 K/9, a career high for Nunez), and owns a similar history of moving from the rotation to the pen, it’s possible that Hensley is next year’s Leo Nunez.

This year, though, you have to give some credence to what the manager says. It also makes sense to take the reliever with the larger sample size of success if you are looking for saves in Florida.

According to Peter Gammons of ESPN, the Houston Astros have acquired reliever Matt Lindstrom from the Florida Marlins.

After Kevin Gregg was dealt to the Cubs last year, Lindstrom started the 2009 season as the Marlins closer. In 54 games with the Marlins last season, Lindstrom recorded 15 saves in 17 chances. He posted a 5.89 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts in 47.1 innings. Lindstrom missed 38 days from late June to early August after suffering a right elbow strain.

After going on the disabled list, Lindstrom returned to the Marlins only to find Leo Nunez occupying the closers role. Lindstrom only had one save opportunity in August and September, and he converted it. Seeing that Nunez was good enough to close for them and Lindstrom was eligible for arbitration, the Marlins made the decision to deal him to save some money.

Lindstrom is one of those guys I have always liked, even though the numbers tell me I shouldn’t. It must be his sexy fastball, which clocks in at an average 96.6 MPH. Lindstrom also throws a slider, and a rare splitter.

In Houston, Lindstrom looks to be the closer, as of now. The Astros have expressed interest in bringing back Jose Valverde, but if they have another closer option that scenario looks less likely. If Lindstrom gets the first shot at closing and runs with it, expect 25+ saves with an ERA over 4.30. and a WHIP close to 1.50. These numbers aren’t spectacular, but Lindstrom provides solid strikeouts (7.42 K/9 last year), so he is ownable as a lower tier closer.

In Florida, Nunez seems to have the hold on the closers job going into next season. He saved 26 games in 33 chances, striking out 60 batters in 68.2 innings in 2009. He is a lower tier closer like Lindstrom, but I would rather have Nunez on my fantasy squad than Lindstrom.

There are two baseball games already underway and another 10 on tap for tonight. Let’s hit some fantasy links as the season rolls on…

Getting amped for September call-up season? So are we, and so are others. Charlie Saponara of FantasyBaseball365.com thinks Cameron Maybin’s defense could earn him some playing time in Florida’s crowded outfield down the stretch. Maybin has been a disappointment on the major league level thus far, but, as Saponara notes, there’s reason to think he could steal a few bases in September.

Knox Bardeen of AOL Fanhouse thinks the Diamondbacks may roll with a closer-by-committee in the wake of Chad Qualls‘ knee injury, with Juan Gutierrez getting most of the chances and a combination of Clay Zavada and Esmerling Vasquez filling in the gaps. “You may want to avoid the Diamondbacks closer situation all together,” Bardeen writes, “and grab either Mike MacDougal or Leo Nunez from the waiver wire.” Andy Behrens of Yahoo! Sports calls Gutierrez “the add,” noting that he averages a closer-like 94.9 MPH average velocity on his fastball.

Bardeen also takes a quick look at the fantastic (and vastly underrated) season that Angels first baseman Kendry Morales is piecing together. The Halos deserve a pat on the back for pulling out of the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes last winter and going with the 26-year-old Morales. A .283/.331/.509 career hitter, he is batting .311/.355/.593 this season.

Rotoworld’s Aaron Gleeman believes Zack Greinke is headed for his first Cy Young Award. As Gleeman notes, “He leads the AL with a 2.32 ERA, six complete games, three shutouts, and a 1.08 WHIP while ranking behind only Justin Verlander with 202 strikeouts and second to only CC Sabathia with 190.1 innings.” Even with his lack of win potential, Greinke remains a top fantasy arm down the stretch.

Grey over at Razzball ranks MLB’s closers in tier format. His top dogs for the home stretch? The Twins’ Joe Nathan, the Yankees’ Mariano Rivera, Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon, the Mets’ Francisco Rodriguez and the Dodgers’ Jonathan Broxton. The Cardinals’ Ryan Franklin heads his second group of ninth-inning stoppers.

Have a link, question or comment you’d like to share? Shoot me an e-mail or find me on Twitter.

Now that the trade deadline has passed for most leagues, the focus for fantasy players turns exclusively to the waiver wire for new players to add to your team. Here are five players available under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your team for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Leo Nunez (35%) – Most leagues are very effective at combing the waiver wire for saves but Nunez seems to have fallen through the cracks. He has four saves this month for the Marlins and has the added advantage of being a big strikeout guy. Nunez has a mid-90s fastball and an effective change-up, which has led to an 8.25 K/9 ratio this season.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Carlos Gonzalez (22%) – It may be crowded in the Rockies’ outfield, but Gonzalez has forced his way into regular playing time. In his last 15 games, Gonzalez has a .417-5-11-10-1 line. The lefty batter gets the larger half of any platoon role and Gonzalez’ ability to play anywhere in the outfield makes it easier to keep him in the lineup for Colorado.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Dustin Nippert (15%) – The later the season, the more important the counting categories become compared to the ratio ones. Nippert offers owners chances for both Ws and Ks. In his first 10 games for the Rangers, covering six starts, Nippert is 4-1 with a 7.75 K/9 mark. His fastball averages just under 93 mph and Pitch Type Values show his curve ball as a plus pitch.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Angel Pagan (8%) – He is not an impact player in any fantasy category but he can contribute in all of them. In 45 games, and 40 starts, Pagan has 9 SB. This month alone, he has 10 R scored. Pagan has even more value in leagues with daily transactions, as he has a .951 OPS with all 3 HR in his home ball park.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Elvis Andrus (41%) – The soon to be 21-year-old SS is one of the top prospects in the game and he has settled in as an everyday player. In his last 10 games, Andrus is batting .371-1-3-6-3. It would be nice if he was at the top of the order but the SB potential alone is enough to make him a worthwhile add down the stretch.

All 30 teams are in action this evening as interleague play wraps up. How about some links?

MVN’s MLBOutsider takes a closer look at the Nationals’ Jordan Zimmermann, who has a 1.99 ERA and 22/6 K/BB ratio over his past four starts. He obviously doesn’t carry much win potential, but he’s been missing a lot of bats (8.9 K/9) without a great dip in control (2.6 BB/9). Mixed leaguers starving for strikeouts might as well give him a try. He is owned in just 13 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Alex Geshwind of FantasyBullpen.com lists his “second half starting pitching targets,” calling Francisco Liriano the “ultimate risk reward” and Randy Johnson a “decent buy low candidate.” Geshwind also takes note of Jorge De La Rosa’s 9.8 K/9 and 3.46 BABIP.

RotoRob’s “Daily Dump” is the Orioles’ Luke Scott, who is stuck in a 3-for-22 rut and has a .699 OPS in the month of June. He’s shown a good display of power this season (14 home runs in 184 at-bats) and has at times murdered left-handed pitching, but he’s not helping mixed leaguers.

Knox Bardeen of AOL Fanhouse advises us to stay away from the “Homer Train.” He, of course, is referring to the Reds’ Homer Bailey, who will be called on to start Saturday against the Indians. The 23-year-old is 4-0 with a 0.47 ERA and 38/7 K/BB ratio in his last five starts for Triple-A Louisville, but he’s had trouble parlaying any kind of success into the major leagues during the course of his career. There’s some hope that this time will be different, due in large part to a new split-finger fastball.

Brad Berreman of MVN’s MLBOutsider has a look at the Marlins’ bullpen situation. With Matt Lindstrom hitting the disabled list, the Fish have said they intend to use a closer-by-committee strategy. That doesn’t always last. Perhaps Leo Nunez or Dan Meyer will emerge as the club’s official ninth-inning hurler.

Rotoworld’s Mark St. Amant presents his “Risers” and “Fallers.” He even gives a little credit to David Ortiz, who is putting together a nice June after opening the season in a massive slump.

Have a link, question or comment? I’m all ears. Shoot me an e-mail or come join me on Twitter.