Archive for Kyle Drabek

Whether we like to admit it or not, exposure can play a key role in the perception of baseball prospects. Baseball’s player universe is so wide, and there’s so much going on during the season, that it’s impossible to get a good firsthand read on every notable minor leaguer out there–invariably, we have to turn to outside sources (like this very website!) to fill in the gaps and lend some measure of authority. The more sources unite at a given point in their praise or condemnation for a particular prospect, the more likely we are to take that praise or condemnation as gospel.

One surefire way for a prospect to get some helium in this fashion is to be traded, especially if the trade involves a somewhat protracted negotiation period where the prospect’s name comes up again–you know, when we hear “This is the guy System A would hate to lose and System B has to have” and so on. This sort of publicity can’t help but have an effect on the general notability of a prospect–suddenly, an A-ball guy with good numbers goes from somebody discussed on a few MiLB-centric websites and discussion threads to a topic on Baseball Tonight. For those who don’t keep extensive track of the minor leagues, suddenly the player is on their radar.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 10.

Kyle Drabek – In his first three starts, Drabek allowed just 4 ER in 18.2 IP for a 1.93 ERA. Since then, he’s allowed 29 ER in 44.2 IP for a 5.84 ERA. In that span, he’s allowed more walks (34) than strikeouts (26) and sports an ugly 1.858 WHIP. Walks are just killing him, as Drabek has a 6.39 BB/9, the worst mark among 115 qualified pitchers and over a full walk worse than the next worst pitcher (Jonathan Sanchez 5.19). Give him a spot on the bench until he gets his walk rate under control.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Three weeks ago, I had Jimenez as a sit and told you to wait until he showed something more. In his last outing he had a four-hit shutout with no walks and seven strikeouts – I think that counts. In his last four starts, covering 30 IP, he’s allowed just eight walks. In the four previous starts, he allowed 19 BB in 18.2 IP. Jimenez faces the Padres and Dodgers this week, the bottom two teams in the National League in runs per game. If you were holding him out, now is definitely the time to get him back in your lineup.

Felipe Paulino – Liberated from the Rockies bullpen, Paulino is back to starting with the Royals. In two starts with Kansas City, he’s pitched 9.1 scoreless innings with 0 BB and 7 Ks. Paulino is a strikeout pitcher who gets lots of groundballs. But the few fly balls he allowed seemingly all left the park in Colorado. He had a 7.36 ERA with the Rockies but a 3.41 xFIP. Available on the waiver wire in most leagues, Paulino is an excellent streaming option this week with his two starts and potentially much more than that.

Joel Pineiro – The switch to more two-seamers back in 2009 turned Pineiro into a pitcher who gets lots of ground balls but few strikeouts. So, he’s really a three-category pitcher at best. But when he’s right, he should deliver numbers in all three remaining categories. Pineiro has scuffled recently but he does have two home starts this week, including one against the Rays, who struggle versus lefties. Against LH starters this year, Tampa has a .652 OPS, the third-worst mark in the American League. Owners have not embraced Pineiro since he came off the DL but this looks like a week where he could contribute.

Josh Tomlin – He is tied for the American League lead with 7 wins and is fifth with a 0.949 WHIP, meaning Tomlin has made owners who picked him up off the waiver wire very happy. But in his past two starts, Tomlin has allowed 10 ER in 12 IP and allowed 3 HR. This week he squares off against the Yankees who lead the AL in both runs per game (5.24) and HR (83 in 54 games) by a wide margin. Tomlin’s start is in the Bronx, where the Yankees have hit 47 HR in 30 games. His other start is against the Twins, who have had trouble scoring runs overall this year but have tallied five or more runs in five of their past seven games. Give Tomlin the week off.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 10 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Lee, Price, Hanson, Lester, Marcum, Greinke, Oswalt, Scherzer, Gonzalez, J. Sanchez, D. Hudson, C. Lewis, Morrow, Zimmermann, Lilly, Correia, Stauffer, Baker, Matusz, Myers, Porcello, Danks, Harrison, Garcia, Westbrook, Richard, Vazquez, Capuano, Leake, Garland, Lannan, Mortensen, Moscoso, Swarzak, Davis, O’Sullivan, Lopez, Reineke.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 8 pitchers and how they fared.

Arroyo – Advised to sit. 2 Ks, 22.24 ERA, 3.706 WHIP, 5.2 IP, 14 ER
Chacin – Advised to start. 11 Ks, 6.23 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 13 IP, 9 ER
de la Rosa – Advised to start. 3 Ks, 7.71 ERA, 2.143 WHIP, 2.1 IP, 2 ER
Hellickson – Advised to start. W, 10 Ks, 1.35 ERA, 0.975 WHIP, 13 IP, 2 ER
Niese – Advised to start. W, 11 Ks, 1.59 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 11.3 IP, 2 ER

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 4.

A.J. Burnett – Despite being in the majors since 1999, Burnett has not thrown more than 39 games to any one catcher. He has 12 catchers who have caught at least 10 games of his in the majors. By far the worst of those was Jorge Posada, with whom Burnett had a 5.61 ERA. Russell Martin has caught all four starts by Burnett this year and he has a 3-0 record. Burnett’s ERA this year is an unimpressive 4.37 but he’s had some trouble with the gopher ball, as his xFIP checks in at 3.89. With two home starts this week, make sure Burnett is active.

Kyle Drabek – After opening the season with three straight strong starts, Drabek was knocked around (5.1 IP, 4 ER) in his last outing. This week he has road starts in Texas and New York, a tough go for anyone, much less a rookie. Drabek has a 5.63 BB/9 and has allowed 8 BB in his last 11 IP. The Rangers and Yankees are in the top four in the American League in runs scored and no pitcher can survive putting extra runners on base against those offenses. Move Drabek to the bench this week.

Matt Harrison – Shoulder injuries the past two seasons have kept Harrison from throwing many innings. A lack of success versus RHB has led to ERAs of 6.11 and 4.71, respectively, the past two years. But Harrison is healthy now and a new pitching approach has led to a very strong start. Last year, Harrison threw a slider 15 percent of the time and it was his worst offering, with a Pitch Type Value of -3.7, the worst of his four pitches. This year, he is throwing fewer sliders (8.5%) and more changeups (18%) and the results have been impressive. RHB have a .147/.238/.267 slash line in 86 PA this year. Last year RHB posted a .770 OPS against him. While his 1.88 ERA will undoubtedly go up, Harrison’s xFIP of 3.85 is nearly a run lower than his lifetime mark. Keep putting Harrison into your lineup.

Daniel Hudson – One of the early leaders in the biggest positive spread between his ERA (5.92) and his FIP (3.55), Hudson has been victimized this year by two things: a very low LOB% (53.0) and a high BB/9 (4.44). Last year Hudson had a 2.55 BB/9, so he is certainly capable of throwing more strikes. This week he squares off against the Phillies and Cubs, two teams that are below average in drawing walks. The Phillies are tied for 12th while the Cubs are 14th. Look for Hudson to break into the win column this week and keep him active.

Justin Masterson – Previously, Masterson has been a pitcher whose peripherals were much better than his actual results. But this year he has a 1.71 ERA and a 4.06 xFIP. His lifetime xFIP is 4.00 so Masterson is pitching like he normally does but is just having much better results. A .256 BABIP without allowing a HR helps explain the difference. Masterson’s early success is unlikely to last all season. He still is murder on RHB while he struggles versus LHB. He goes up against the Royals and Tigers, who can stack their lineup with lefties. Give Masterson the week off if you can.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 4 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Weaver, Cain, G. Gonzalez, J. Garcia, Nolasco, Buchholz, Lowe, Lewis, Garza, Floyd, Arroyo, Kennedy, Britton, Zimmermann, Narveson, Davis, Norris, Dickey, Hochevar, Rogers, Coke, Colon, Bedard, Blackburn, Morton, Garland, Moseley, Humber, Russell.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 2 pitchers and how they fared.

Buehrle – Advised to start. 6 Ks, 2.40 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 4 ER, 15 IP
Correia – Advised to sit. 1 K, 6.00 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 4 ER, 6 IP
Dempster – Advised to sit. W, 13 Ks, 7.15 ERA, 1.589 WHIP, 9 ER, 11.1 IP
McClellan – Advised to start. 2 W, 6 Ks, 1.39 ERA, 1.308 WHIP, 2 ER, 13 IP
Rogers – Advised to start. W, 2 Ks, 4.78 ERA, 1.941 WHIP, 3 ER, 5.2 IP