Archive for Kurt Suzuki

Earlier in the week we showed that you can still get a comparative advantage over your fellow drafters by drafting an elite catcher that will rack up 10-12% more plate appearances than other catchers. But that’s only half the picture – what the catchers do with their plate appearances is the rest of the picture. If you can’t get too much of a comparative advantage in terms of the other statistics, the plate appearances won’t matter much.

In order to do that, we’ll take a look at some of the projections for catchers that should go early and catchers that go later. We’ll use draft picks from the Stupidly Early Mock Draft over at RotoHardball.com to approximate ADP (but there’s more help coming from RG when it comes to rankings and mocks, don’t worry).

First, let’s just take the Bill James projections for the top 12 catchers, grouped not in tiers, but just in groups of four. These jerry-rigged tiers will allow us to compare the top, middle, and bottom catchers without too much discussion about getting them into the correct tiers. A straight average of the groups should put this into focus.

2.10 Joe Mauer .338 BA, 15 HR, 3 SB, 93 R, 87 RBI
4.1 Brian McCann .280 BA, 24 HR, 4 SB, 68 R, 94 RBI
4.2 Victor Martinez .298 BA, 19 HR, 1 SB, 69 R, 88 RBI
4.3 Buster Posey .308 BA, 21 HR, 1 SB, 74 R, 83 RBI

Top-“Tier” Average: .306 BA, 20 HR, 2 SB, 76 R, 88 RBI

7.5 Geovany Soto .276 BA, 20 HR, 0 SB, 56 R, 72 RBI
7.8 Carlos Santana .280 BA, 22 HR, 7 SB, 83 R, 91 RBI
9.4 Matt Wieters .288 BA, 16 HR, 0 SB, 55 R, 74 RBI
12.11 Mike Napoli .246 BA, 24 HR, 4 SB, 62 R, 66 RBI

Mid-“Tier” Average: .273 BA, 21 HR, 3 SB, 64 R, 76 RBI

14.6 Jorge Posada .260 BA, 16 HR, 2 SB, 49 R, 60 RBI
14.7 Miguel Montero .273 BA, 14 HR, 0 SB, 51 R, 58 RBI
15.9 Ryan Hanigan .281 BA, 5 HR, 0 SB, 39 R, 37 RBI
16.12 Kurt Suzuki .266 BA, 13 HR, 4 SB, 65 R, 73 RBI

Bottom-“Tier” Average: .270 BA, 12 HR, 1 SB, 51 R, 57 RBI

It looks like you get what you pay for, but the middle tier might get you the best value. The bottom tier looks pretty bad, but if you replace Hanigan with John Buck, whose projections are a little rosier (.248 BA, 17 HR, 0 SB, 47 R, 60 RBI), then your averages for the bottom tier look a little nicer – .262 BA, 15 HR, 53 R, 63 RBI.

While the top three in plate appearances will show a comparative advantage over the rest of the field, plate appearances can be hard to predict. Going by projected performance, it looks like the best plan may be to wait, but not wait too long.

Did you know that only seven catchers qualified for the major league batting title last year? 16 second basemen did, too, and they were the second-least represented group. The most amount of plate appearances accrued by a catcher was 584 by Joe Mauer. Centerfielders had the second-worst leader by PAs, and that was Denard Span with 705 plate appearances. No matter where you draft your catcher, you’ll be getting fewer opportunities to accrue counting stats from your catcher.

There are some nice catchers near the top of the rankings, and there is certainly some advantage to be gained by picking a stud at the position. The argument might go that you can rack up comparatively more plate appearances by getting one of the top six or seven guys, even if their absolute plate appearances don’t stack up against other positions. Well, we can test, this right?

When compared to the top 12 catchers by plate appearances alone, here are the comparative plate appearances that the top three catchers can provide, with 100 equaling the average for the top 12.

Joe Mauer = 115
Brian McCann = 111
Kurt Suzuki = 107

Let’s compare that to second basemen, who seem to have similar problems accruing plate appearances. The top three secondbase dudes by plate appearances:

Rickie Weeks = 114
Chone Figgins = 106
Robinson Cano = 105

Well, look at that – and I don’t mean the delicious irony that Rickie Weeks led second basemen in plate appearances. Good thing we went into this without preconceptions, because it looks like you can gain an advantage against your leaguemates by snatching up one of the catchers that comes to the plate regularly. It’s kind of crazy to think, but Jorge Posada, with his 451 plate appearances, came to the plate more often compared to his peers than Aaron Hill with his 580 plate appearances.

Of course, none of this factors in the actual projections for the catchers near the bottom of your rankings, a topic we’ll tackle later in the week.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Francisco Liriano – He has run hot and cold this year. In his last four games, Liriano is 0-3 with a 4.68 ERA, which cost him a shot at the All-Star game. But Liriano has also enjoyed two different hot streaks this year and overall he has a sparkling 2.88 xFIP and a nice 9.88 K/9. According to the price guide over at Last Player Picked, Liriano has been worth $11 this year, far off the $30+ pace of Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson and Ubaldo Jimenez. While he may not be quite in their class, do not be afraid to pay more than $11 in value to acquire Liriano for the rest of the season.

Ricky Nolasco – One of the most volatile players in fantasy baseball the past few years, Nolasco has really disappointed owners who valued him at 2009’s 3.28 xFIP. But given his streaky nature, now might be the ideal time to take a flyer on him. In his last 30 games, Nolasco has a 27.3 HR/FB rate, easily the highest in the majors. If he can get the HR under control, Nolasco could shave a run or more off his ERA going forward. He is not the strikeout pitcher he was last year, but a 7.64 K/9 is nothing to dismiss lightly.

Kurt Suzuki – The good news this year is that Suzuki is continuing to add to his HR power. In his first full season in the majors he had a 4.2 HR/FB rate. Last year it was 8.0 and so far this year it is 11.2 percent. But injuries and a .240 BABIP have held down his overall value this year. Suzuki appears over the injured ribs that sidelined him earlier in the year. Now he just needs to have a little better luck on balls in play.

SELL

David DeJesus – One of the players rumored to be on the trading block in MLB, DeJesus should be shopped in fantasy, too. He is a good fantasy player because he contributes in all five categories. The problem is that he does not really excel in any of them. He will reach double-digits in both HR and SB, but just barely in each of them. Right now he is very valuable thanks to his .329 AVG. But that was produced with a .366 BABIP, 44 points above his lifetime mark. ZiPS sees him hitting 30 points lower the rest of the way and even that lower mark is still 9 points above his lifetime mark.

Mat Latos – He has been everything his owners have expected and more so far this season. In his last 11 games, Latos is 8-1 with a 1.60 ERA and has 74 Ks in 73.1 IP. That stretch has been fueled by a .212 BABIP and he has allowed just 2 HR in that span. Obviously he will not be able to keep that pace going for the remainder of the season. The other red flag surrounding Latos is the unknown about how much he will pitch the rest of the way. He had injury problems in the minors and earlier in the year the Padres said they would be careful with his workload in the second half. That may go out the window with the team involved in a pennant race but it is still something that fantasy owners need to concerned with in August and September.

Joel Pineiro – In his last six games, Pineiro is 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA. That hot streak has brought his ERA (3.96) in perfect alignment with both his FIP (3.95) and xFIP (3.93). So, while he was a bit unlucky early in the season, regression has hit for Pineiro. In his career, Pineiro has a 4.36 ERA, which is essentially what ZiPS projects for him the rest of the season. If you do hold him, you will want to play matchups the rest of the way. Pineiro has a 2.22 ERA at home and a 6.80 mark on the road.

HUNCH

Dexter Fowler – After not hitting the first two months of the season, Colorado sent Fowler to the minors. In Triple-A this year he put up a .340/.435/.566 line in 124 PA before being recalled by the Rockies. While Colorado already had a full outfield, which forced Seth Smith and Ryan Spillborghs to vie for time, Fowler was immediately inserted into the lineup as leadoff hitter. He has picked up right where he left off in the minors, with 10 hits in his first 24 ABs. I like Fowler to win a starting job the rest of the season and to exceed his ZiPS projection of 221 PA the rest of the way. I also think he will hit better than his .255 projection and exceed 9 SB.

Once again a fantasy freak is allowed out into the light, and, well, I feel the pressure to be… fantastic. But how better to represent what we’ve been doing on RotoGraphs than to continue a series that gets right at the heart of what FanGraphs’ beautiful numbers can do for you in fantasy? That’s right, we’re checking out players from our tiered ranking series that are likely to outperform their Average Draft Position (ADP) as determined by MockDraftCentral.com.

It’s a mouthful, but remember, in the words of the immortal Black Sheep, “You can get with this, or you can get with that, I think you’ll get with this, for this is where it’s at.” It’s all about choosing the right player at the right spot.

For example, Victor Martinez is a fine young man. He’ll probably hit twenty home runs and have a nice batting average. His runs and RBI should be elite for a catcher, given the lineup surrounding him and his home ballpark. His ADP (24.19) reflects all of these things by placing him at the end of the second round. You could get with this.

On the other hand, there’s Brian McCann, who is also a fine young catcher. The fans have him hitting a couple more home runs, though, probably because his ISO has been much steadier and more impressive (.183, .222, .205 since 2007) than Martinez has shown (.205, .086, .177 over the same time period). Of course, picking McCann may come with a little more risk in the batting average department. There is the matter of his .270 batting average in 2007 in some minds. But McCann had a sub-.300 BABIP that year for the only time in his career, despite also owning a .307 xBABIP that year. It looks like he’s at least a reasonably solid bet to give similar value to Martinez… and he’s going as much as two rounds later according to his ADP (42.37). Among the top-tiered catchers, this is where it’s at (for value).

Once the top three catchers go, the ADPs plunge into the 100s, and for good reason. Because of the way the average catcher is used, the top 12 catchers by at-bats averaged 490 at-bats compared to 586 average at-bats for the top 12 first basemen last year. That’s 16.4% fewer at-bats. So before you use any pick on a catcher, remember that he’s going to get 15% fewer chances than the average position player – and also that his poor batting average will be 15% less hurtful than a bad batting average on a player at a different position.

In the next tier, Miguel Montero and his emerging game make for a good value given his draft position (149.78). He’s shown a .173+ ISO three seasons running, and seems to have finally reigned in the strikeouts to a reasonable level (18.6% last year). He’s also twelve years younger than the more expensive Jorge Posada (116.53 ADP). Catcher-years can catch up to a catcher in his late thirties. (Catch that?)

I could certainly get with Kurt Suzuki (131.37 ADP), but Russell Martin is cheaper (137.89) and more likely to offer a handful of extra steals. In the end, I’m probably just going to bypass the lot of them and go for end-game sleepers like the always-solid never-exciting AJ Pierzynski (246.68). As commenter Bas noted on our Check the Position: Catcher piece, AJ and Suzuki have similar high-contact, low-walk-rate, medium-power approaches – why you would pay almost ten rounds more for Suzuki? Certainly not for those five steals.

Finally, a word for a deep league ADP value guy. John Baker was first made famous for his inclusion in Billy Beane’s wishlists in Money Ball, and won’t hurt you with his low ADP (318.62). Jesus Flores, on the other hand, has an ISO that’s going in the right direction and is even cheaper (332.92). Provided Flores is healthy, both are fine late-round additions in deep leagues.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops here.)

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place.

One of the biggest arguments of the offseason in regards to this position will be whether or not Joe Mauer belongs in a tier of his own. Certainly, if he repeats his work from last year, he’ll be above and beyond the best catcher in the league. The problem with projecting his power next year is that he didn’t crack 30% fly balls last year, he just more than doubled his career HR/FB rate (and tripled 2008’s number). That uncertainty regarding his power ‘drags’ him down into a tier with the recovered Victor Martinez and the steady power producer Brian McCann.

Next comes the tier that mixes strong rookies with some doubt with an ageless wonder in Jorge Posada. Matt Wieters or Miguel Montero have the upside to blaze past Posada (at least in terms of batting average). Just look at the second halves that Wieters (.301/.351/.415) and Montero (.316/.366/.534) put up last year for a little taste of the possibility. Though Mike Napoli made a small stride in his strike out rate (27.1% in 2009, 29.7% career), it’s still high, and he’s still the most likely to put up the worst batting average of the group.

The third tier is a mix of riskier young catchers with upside remaining and less-valuable older catchers on their way down. Actually, to be fair, A.J. Pierzynski doesn’t seem to be declining currently with his best batting average in seven years, but he is utterly devoid of upside and provides minimal returns in the power categories. For example, despite a major step back in his slugging percentage (all the way down to .329), Russell Martin could easily hit more home runs than AJ next year (and that doesn’t even mention his stolen bases). Geovany Soto seems to have had some terrible luck (.251 BABIP, .310 career) and is a decent bet for a bounce back. Buster Posey has to be seen as more of a risk than the young veterans ahead of him, despite his strong minor league numbers, just because of his youth (22) and his struggles last year. Bengie Molina had his worst wOBA (.308) in six years and doesn’t have a starting job in hand currently.

The final tier includes a trio of long shots at this point. Though there is reason to remain excited about Chris Iannetta, there are negatives for every positive. You might want to point to his bad BABIP (.253), but that may have been because of his bad line drive rate (16%). You like a power hitter to hit fly balls, but maybe not as many as the young Rockie (52%). If he straightens out those hits a little, he could even leap a tier next year, and he’s the best long shot in the bottom tier. Ryan Doumit just can’t stay healthy, and Kurt Suzuki hadn’t even shown this power before last year (.421 slugging in 2009, .398 career) and without it, you’re relying on a catcher for (already modest) speed.

Many of us will own someone on the bottom of this list sometime next year, but will we really want to draft them at the beginning of the year?