Archive for Kevin Gregg

Sometimes, the best part about trading season is less about the additions some clubs make than it is about the new roles of those left behind. In fantasy baseball, that’s rarely more relevant than it is in the bullpen, where the “save” can suddenly make barely-notable middle relievers valuable properties, simply because they’ll be pitching now in the ninth rather than the seventh or eighth.

While we could see closers move in a few places, the most likely spot to see this happen this year is going to be in Chicago, where Kevin Gregg is 35, a free-agent-to-be, having a surprisingly good season, and absolutely not going to be with the Cubs the next time they’re any good. Dale Sveum’s club has already gone through three closers this year — first Carlos Marmol before he was demoted and traded, then Kyuji Fujikawa before he got hurt, now Gregg — and it seems more likely than not that they’ll end up with at least one more before the season is out.

So… who’s it going to be? Read the rest of this entry »

–Jason Grilli dished a scoreless ninth-inning en route to his 27th save in 28 opportunities as the Pirates earned their league-leading 50th victory by clipping the Brewers, 2-1. In addition to Grilli’s impeccable save conversion percentage, the right-hander owns an impressive 42.7% K%, a 1.82 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP. Grilli’s whiff rates (42.7% K%) appear gaudy and are well-above his career average (21.4% K%), but career bests landing the first strike (61.8% F-Strike%) and inducing swinging strikes (15.7% SwStr%) suggest the spike in strikeouts isn’t exactly a mirage or stroke of luck. If you own shares of the Pirates’ ninth-inning man I wouldn’t be mad if you shopped him around your league — you’d likely get a hefty return on your investment — but as long as health remains in his corner and your squad is in need of saves, ride the wave.

Read the rest of this entry »

Happy 4th of July weekend to you all…

So some of the boys and I decided to test out our waiver wire skills and ran a quick little Deep League Waiver Wire draft.  We had to pick those that we thought would be the most productive for fantasy teams THIS season but had less than a 10% ownership mark using ESPN Fantasy as a guideline.  Since the pick’ns were pretty slim, we left the positions as follows:  C, CI, MI, OF, SP, RP.  I had the first pick of the four of us, so here’s what I did… Read the rest of this entry »

Well, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!  So I’ll stay in my niche here today and continue with more of the well traveled players.  By my count, we’ve got 27 players officially named the closer on their respective teams and of those guys, 3 of them have been imported from another club.  It looks like one of them is headed towards being a valuable fantasy commodity, but the other two might have a few bumps in the road. Read the rest of this entry »

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Josh Hamilton – There were a lot of doubts about Hamilton coming into the season, specifically if he could remain healthy. So far, so good on that end, although there will always be health-related concerns around him. Hamilton is laying off more pitches outside of the zone and has the highest BB% (11.6) of his career. Some will look at his .333 BABIP and 14.3 HR/FB rate and conclude this is the best he is going to do all season. But from a fantasy perspective, Hamilton could see a big rise in RBIs in the coming months. The Rangers have already removed OBP sinkhole Julio Borbon from the top of the order and hopefully Ian Kinsler can slot into his customary position ahead of Hamilton and bring his .391 OBP with him.

Justin Masterson – An 0-3 record and a 5.40 ERA has Masterson owned in only 41 percent of CBS Sports leagues. But it is hard to imagine anything but the shallowest leagues where a 10.46 K/9 is not worthy of a roster spot. Masterson’s walk rate has never been good in the majors, and this year is no exception with a 4.05 BB/9. But what is really hurting him this year is a 26.7 HR/FB rate. Masterson has allowed 4 HR in 26.2 IP. His xFIP checks in at 3.11. Previously Masterson has had normal HR/FB rates and if it regresses to those levels the rest of the year, he should be a very valuable fantasy pitcher, even on the 10-16 Indians.

Scott Rolen – The past three seasons, Rolen has played in 128, 115 and 112 games so he is not the most durable player out there. But he remains a productive hitter while in the lineup. And right now Rolen’s numbers are being dragged down by a .239 BABIP. He has a nice .250 ISO, thanks to 6 HR in 84 ABs. Obviously he will not be able to keep up that HR pace, but Rolen should easily surpass preseason expectations that he would hit just 10-14 HR. He has really enjoyed hitting in the Great American Ballpark, as lifetime Rolen has 14 HR in 208 ABs at the GABP. And once he raises his current .200 BABIP in road parks, Rolen could be on his way to his best season since 2006.

SELL

Jaime Garcia – Everyone’s favorite rookie pitcher, Garcia has seen his CBS Sports ownership jump from 24 percent at the beginning of the year to 84 percent now. We know all about his phenomenal ground ball rate and how pitching coach Dave Duncan has had success in the past with these types of hurlers. But now is the time to sell high. He has a 3.73 xFIP and RoS ZiPS projects him with a 4.43 ERA (although its IP estimate seems way off). Garcia is likely to remain a useful to good fantasy pitcher the rest of the season, but like Joel Pineiro can tell you, eventually you give up some homers regardless of how many ground balls you allow.

Kevin Gregg – If you look at Gregg’s FanGraphs page you might conclude that his success this season is due to throwing fewer fastballs and sliders and more cutters and splitters. Last year both his cutter and splitter were below-average pitches and both have been tremendous in 2010, helping Gregg to a 64.3 GB%. But PitchFX guru Mike Fast thinks that Gregg has not really changed his arsenal much at all and that it is more of a reclassification of the BIS identification system. Gregg has lost his closer’s role for the Marlins in 2008 and the Cubs in 2009. Right now he is on a nice hot streak so look to sell high before regression hits since he likely has not added anything new to his repertoire.

Aramis Ramirez – Many people view Ramirez as a buy candidate, since he got off to such a terrible start (perhaps due to not being fully recovered from injury) and his BABIP is so low. But the strikeouts are alarming, with his 25.7 K% the first time since his rookie year in 1998 that it tops 20 percent. Ramirez is not chasing more pitches out of the zone and his O-Contact% is nearly identical to what it was last year. Instead, it appears that most of the trouble comes from catching up to fastballs. Ramirez has a Z-Contact% down over 9 percent from last year and his wFB/C has gone from 1.36 a season ago to -4.90 in 2010. Meanwhile his wSL/C has nearly tripled, going from 0.55 to 1.44. Ramirez has started to hit better in the last week (only 4 Ks in his last 38 ABs, although with a .184 AVG) but there should be at least a little bit of concern about his slider-speed bat. This is not a recommendation to sell at all costs but to see if you can get close to his preseason value. RoS ZiPS still forecasts him to finish with 20 HR and 97 RBIs, nearly identical to its preseason prediction of 21 and 101. But I am not optimistic that he will hit those marks.

HUNCH

Brian Matusz – Most people would shy away from a rookie pitcher in the AL East who is a flyball pitcher in front of the Orioles outfield defense. While coolstandings.com shows the remainder of the Orioles schedule against teams with a .545 winning percentage, I like Matusz to exceed his Updated ZiPS marks of 10 W, 4.51 ERA and 7.16 K/9.

Toronto Blue Jays signed RHP Kevin Gregg to a one-year, $2.75 million contract, with a pair of club options.

According to Jordan Bastian’s MLB.com report, Gregg’s pact has two different club options. After next season’s Fall Classic, the Jays can do any of the following: say sayonara, retain Gregg at $4.5 million for 2011 or pick up a two-year option covering 2011 and 2012 for a total of $8.75 million. Gregg qualified as a Type A free agent, but the Cubs didn’t offer him arbitration. Thus, no draft pick changes hands.

The bespectacled, 31 year-old right-hander saw his ERA rise from the mid-three’s in 2007 and 2008 to a mediocre 4.72 mark this past year. However, a closer look at Gregg’s peripherals suggests his ’09 might have actually been better than the two previous seasons.

Gregg whiffed 9.31 batters per nine innings with Chicago, issuing 3.93 BB/9. The K rate was the second-best figure of the former Angel, Marlin and Cub’s career, and the walk rate was his lowest since 2006. He garnered more outside swings in ’09 (26.1%) than at any other point in his big league career. His BABIP wasn’t high (.277), nor was his rate of stranding runners on base very low (73.5). So, what’s the deal with the ERA?

Home runs. An extreme fly ball pitcher (career 39 GB%), Gregg had very low home run per fly ball rates in 2007 (5.9%) and 2008 (4.4%). In ’09, a whopping 15.3 percent of fly balls hit against Gregg became souvenirs. For comparison, the big league average is usually around 11-12 percent.

He was fortunate in ’07 and ’08, and had lousy luck in ’09. These things happen with relievers tossing 60-80 frames per year: a couple extra wall-scrapers are hit against a guy, and his overall line suffers. Gregg’s xFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, was 4.16 in 2009. That was actually lower than ’07 (4.74) and ’08 (4.59).

Gregg doesn’t have the stuff typically associated with a late-game reliever. He’s a three-pitch guy, tossing a 91-92 MPH fastball (+0.67 runs/100 career), a low-80’s slider (+0.11) and the occasional mid-80’s splitter (+1.13). Over the past couple of years, Gregg has thrown fewer fastballs, mixing in more sliders instead. Perhaps as a result, Gregg’s percentage of pitchers within the zone has decreased. His InZone% was 50.4 in 2007, 49.5 in 2008 and 44.8 in 2009 (49-51% MLB average).

In Toronto, Gregg will compete with Scott Downs and Jason Frasor for save ops, assuming neither of those two are bartered before Opening Day.

Downs, 34 in March, is a groundball-centric lefty who uses a 89-90 MPH sinker with hellacious tailing action in on southpaw batters, as well as a big-breaking mid-70’s curveball. Downs has moved in the opposite direction as Gregg, progressively tossing more fastballs (from 63% in ’07 to 74% in ’09). He has a three-year xFIP of 3.38. Downs’ 2009 season was interrupted by a left foot injury that required surgery, as well as a strained right hamstring.

Frasor, 32, is a diminutive righty who pumps 93-94 MPH gas. That fastball has been a plus offering, with a career +0.94 run value per 100 pitches. He also features an average low-80’s slider (+0.02), with a few changeups/splitters sprinkled in. Frasor’s three-year xFIP is 4.01.

Here are the 2010 CHONE projections for our three closer contenders:

Gregg: 67 IP, 7.7 K/9, 4.16 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9, 4.32 FIP
Downs: 49 IP, 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9, 3.67 FIP
Frasor: 51 IP, 8.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9, 4.12 FIP

Gregg figures to rebound somewhat next season, but intermittent control and fly ball proclivities make him an iffy high-leverage reliever. Toronto’s ninth-inning situation bears watching over the next couple of months.

The trade winds continue to blow as the off-season begins to heat up. A number of minor league players were on the move this week as the Chicago Cubs sent promising, and hard-throwing, reliever Jose Ceda to the Florida Marlins for reliever Kevin Gregg.

Ceda was originally a highly-thought-of starting pitcher whose lack of command and control warranted a move to the bullpen, which took place midway through 2008. The 21-year-old Ceda spent the first half of the season in High-A ball where he allowed 41 hits in 55.1 innings over 12 starts (15 total appearances). He also posted rates of 4.64 BB/9 and 8.78 K/9. His Double-A relief numbers included 26 hits allowed in 30.1 innings, with rates of 4.15 BB/9 and 12.46 K/9. Ceda is still raw, and a long way from realizing his potential as a dominating closer, but he could see time in Florida in 2009 where he will showcase a high-90s fastball and mid-80s slider.

In a separate deal, the New York Yankees acquired slumping veteran OF/1B Nick Swisher and minor league reliever Kanekoa Texeira from the Chicago White Sox for MLB reserve infielder Wilson Betemit, Triple-A starting pitcher Jeff Marquez and Double-A reliever Jhonny Nunez. It’s impressive that New York managed to get Swisher for those three players, let alone have Chicago toss in a B-level minor league reliever. Texeira has average stuff but he has more than enough talent to be a middle reliever in Major League Baseball. At High-A ball, he allowed 28 hits in 38.2 innings and posted rates of 3.26 BB/9 and 8.38 K/9. At Double-A, he allowed 18 hits in 22.1 innings and posted rates of 2.82 BB/9 and 9.67 K/9/. Texeira may actually be the most talented of the three prospects that changed hands in this deal… which speaks less about his overall talent and more about the quality of prospects that Chicago received.

With that said, Marquez is an interesting player. Only 24, Marquez has the potential to fit in at the back end of the White Sox rotation or as a long reliever. He won 15 games in Double-A in 2007, but his overall numbers were no where near as impressive as the win total. Marquez struggled with injuries in 2008 and started 14 games at Triple-A. He allowed 93 hits in 80.2 innings and posted rates of 2.68 BB/9 and 3.68 K/9. Marquez has always been too hittable and doesn’t strike out many batters, but he’s had constant success in terms of FIP and ERA. He is basically a one-pitch pitcher with a sinker and a collection of below-average or average secondary pitches.

Nunez, 22, has already been the property of the Dodgers, the Nationals, the Yankees and now the White Sox. He is another one-pitch pitcher with a low- to mid-90s fastball, as well as a developing slider and change-up. If he sticks in the bullpen, Nunez can scrap the change-up. In High-A ball this season as a starter, the right-hander allowed 88 hits in 81 innings and posted rates of 2.33 BB/9 and 9.11 K/9. After moving up to Double-A, for both Washington and New York, Nunez allowed 25 hits in 27.1 innings and struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings. Chicago does love those hard-throwing relievers so Nunez could surface at the Major League level by the end of 2009 if his command continues to improve.