Archive for J.R. Towles

A year ago, there was talk of Astros’ rookie backstop Jason Castro being a quality late round sleeper in fantasy leagues.  But then he tore his ACL and, with surgery needed, Castro missed the entire 2011 season.  He made it back to play in the Arizona Fall League and was returning to “potential sleepers” lists until he injured himself again during the final game and required foot surgery in mid-December.  He was expected to miss atleast three months.  But on Sunday, Brian McTaggert, an Astos beat writer for MLB.com, reported that Castro has already declared himself good to go and is ready to ease his way back in.  An early return?  Is that enough to put him back on your watch list?  Is he worth a late round/$1 pick on draft day?

Read the rest of this entry »

Time to re-visit those monthly rankings, again.  As always, the criteria used for these is as follows:

1.  Current performance level
2.  Expected performance for rest of season
3.  Value based on standard 5×5 categories (avg over OBP)

One note, despite the fact that it is late in the season, we are not accounting for keeper value right now.  We are staying within the parameters of this season alone.  Injured players remain on the list at the bottom so we can just see who was up there from start to finish.  That being said, here’s how the catching position looks right now…. Read the rest of this entry »

As the season moves on, things are really settling in with the catcher rankings.  Not a whole lot of movement from tier to tier (almost none), but some movement within.  Remember, the criteria used for the rankings is as follows:

1.  Current performance level
2.  Expected performance for rest of season
3.  Value based on standard 5×5 categories (avg over OBP)

Here’s how it looks heading into July. Read the rest of this entry »

Whether you’re exploring trade opportunities or fishing off your free agent waiver wire, it’s always good to keep an eye on the backstops.  Some people have a tendency to dismiss the position for its lack of consistent production, but you can always get a leg up if you can find yourself a hot hitting catcher.  Here’s a look at who’s performing up to task and who should be riding the pine in your fantasy league. Read the rest of this entry »

As we get ready to head into a new month, it’s time to update the 2011 Catchers Rankings once again.  Remember, the criteria for these rankings is as follows:

The arrows are used to highlight a player moving up or down in tier, but you’ll also notice some minor tweaks within the tiers as well.  Some that will obviously have more impact than others. Read the rest of this entry »

With the calendar flipping to May, it’s time to re-visit the 2011 Catcher Rankings and see who has climbed closer to the top and who’s been dropping like a stone.  As you may recall, the RotoGraph writers got together before the season began and constructed a composite catcher rankings.  However, after gaining some feedback from all of you, I have decided to make my adjustments to the rankings based on the following criteria:

The arrows are used to highlight a player moving up or down in tier, but you’ll also notice some minor tweaks within the tiers as well.  Some that will obviously have more impact than others.  So without further ado, you may now cue the theme song to The Jeffersons… Read the rest of this entry »

While the tiers we established in our aggregate pre-season rankings gave you a sound foundation for your draft, you knew there was going to be some movement amongst the backstops.  I’m aware that we’re dealing with a small sample size of at bats, but if you’ve got a guy who’s hot, why not use him while you can? Or, if he’s cold, bench him for now and get yourself a temporary replacement.  Let’s look at a few names of backstops that are both rising and falling in current value. Read the rest of this entry »

By the time a top prospect graces a major league field, avid fans can recite just about any detail regarding that player. Height, weight, round drafted (or country signed from), minor league stats, scouting reports, what he likes to eat for lunch..you name it, and it’s known.

With fantasy players going to CIA-like lengths to get the scoop, looking to identify The Next Big Thing before anyone else, expectations for those prospects soar. Sometimes, those players scuffle at first, get hurt or don’t get an opportunity to play every day. They fade from a person’s consciousness, as attention is turned to the next crop of “can’t miss” youngsters.

Today, I’d like to turn your attention back toward some names that everyone swooned over a few years back, but have yet to reach their potential for one reason or another. Here’s the Fallen Prospect Lineup, with CHONE projections for the 2010 season included.

Catcher

J.R. Towles, Astros

CHONE: .252/.332/.409, .326 wOBA

Towles’ minor league track record suggests that he could be better than the average backstop with the bat, but a string of injuries, an ugly line in a small amount of big league playing time (largely the product of a .218 BABIP) and the presence of 2008 first-rounder Jason Castro have torpedoed his status within the organization. It’s difficult to find a guy capable of league-average offense at catcher, so the 26 year-old shouldn’t be written off just yet.

First Base

Jeff Clement, Pirates

CHONE:.264/.342/.460, .350 wOBA

Formerly a catcher, Clement was viewed as a franchise-type player when the Mariners selected him with the third pick in the 2005 draft. However, knee injuries and spotty receiving skills caused him to fall down the defensive spectrum. Now that he’s apparently through strapping on shin guards, Clement will need to slug his way to a big league career at first base. He’s a career .279/.368/.492 hitter in 1,500+ plate appearances at the Triple-A level. Clement, 26, figures to get his first crack at an everyday job if Pittsburgh feels comfortable with Garrett Jones in right field.

Second Base

Sean Rodriguez, Rays

CHONE: .241/.327/.447, .338 wOBA

Snagged from the Angels in last year’s Scott Kazmir deal, Rodriguez has beat the bejesus out of the baseball in Triple-A (.298/.396/.620 line in 750 PA), though Salt Lake City (the Halos’ highest minor league affiliate) is a cozy place for a batter to take his cuts. The 25 year-old doesn’t have a clear path to everyday playing time, but he has experience at second base, shortstop, third base and in the outfield. With Tampa, Rodriguez will perhaps fill in at the keystone when Ben Zobrist plays the outfield, while catching an occasional start at other positions when a regular needs a breather.

Shortstop

Ronny Cedeno, Pirates

CHONE: .257/.303/.389, .304 wOBA

Slim pickings here. That CHONE projection would actually constitute a great leap forward for the former Cub and Mariner, who has a career .272 wOBA in the majors. Cedeno just plain hasn’t been able to handle big league fastballs to this point: per 100 pitches, he has been two runs below average when a pitcher reaches back and fires. He has hacked first and asked questions later, too, chasing 35.5 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). Cedeno, 27, will “battle” Bobby Crosby in spring training for a starting spot.

Last we heard, both Ronny and Bobby are trying to board Oceanic Flight 815, hoping to crash on the “The Island” back in 2004. I’m not sure that even Jacob or The Man in Black could help these two, though.

Third Base

Alex Gordon, Royals

CHONE: .267/.353/.435, .350 wOBA

The fervor surrounding Gordon never reached Wieters-esque levels, but the Golden Spikes Award Winner and Nebraska star was supposed to mash from the moment the K.C. home crowd gave him a standing ovation in 2007. Gordon’s ’09 campaign was marred by a hip injury, but it’s important to keep in mind that a “disappointing” major league performance to this point has resulted in a 98 wRC+ (two percent below the MLB average).

The 26 year-old lefty batter must show improvement versus breaking stuff, particularly of the southpaw variety, but CHONE projects an offensive showing that’s 14 percent better than the big league average next season (114 wRC+).

Outfield

Wladimir Balentien, Reds

CHONE: .265/.342/.487, .358 wOBA

Traded from the Mariners to the Reds last year, Balentien is a hulking righty hitter who has impaled pitchers at Triple-A (.283/.359/.534 in 819 PA) and flailed in the majors (.221/.281/.374 in 559 PA, with a 72 wRC+). He hasn’t exactly crushed fastballs. But against curves and sliders, Wlad has looked like a beer league softball player who hit the kegs a little overzealously in the early innings. His contact rate to this point is a Custian 69.8 percent (80-81% MLB average).

Still, Balentien is a 25 year-old with a good record in the high minors. He’ll fight for playing time in left field with a laundry list of others, including Chris Dickerson, Jonny Gomes, and possibly Chris Heisey.

Delmon Young, Twins

CHONE: .305/.339/.454, .346 wOBA

Remember “Delmon Young, the next Albert Belle“? The first overall pick in the 2003 draft earned the adoration of prospect mavens by throttling pitchers at minor league levels where he was several years younger than the competition. Sure, his strike zone was expansive, but it was easy to dream of a day when he’d be an all-around force at the plate.

Now 24, Young enters the 2010 season with a career 95 wRC+ in the majors. The problems: a tendency to swing at anything from North Dakota to Wisconsin (career 40.4 Outside-Swing% and a four percent walk rate) and roll over the ball (50 percent groundball rate). It also doesn’t help that he has played DH-worthy defense (career -18.9 UZR/150 in LF). He’s not doomed yet, but there’s a good chance that he’s the next Jose Guillen instead of the next Belle

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

CHONE: .284/.345/.423, .338 wOBA

Once a premium center field prospect with the Mets, Milledge is now a left fielder on his third organization. His career wRC+ is just 93, as he has often strayed from the zone (31.6 Outside-Swing%) and rarely popped the ball over the fence or into the gaps (.132 ISO). The soon-to-be 25 year-old doesn’t project as a standout defender, so he’ll need to up the offensive ante in Pittsburgh. Jose Tabata and Gorkys Hernandez both have ETAs of late 2010 or early 2011.

Remember J.R. Towles? A few years back, Towles was the cream of a rather barren crop of Astros prospects. Baseball America rated the backstop as Houston’s top farm talent prior to the 2008 season, praising his diverse skill set and noting that the Astros envisioned Towles becoming the club’s first All-Star catcher since 1991, when Craig Biggio was blocking pitches instead of turning two.

Entering 2010, however, Towles’ career prospects are considerably dimmer. He made his big league debut in September of 2007, but two bitter cups of coffee in 2008 and 2009 have soured Houston’s opinion of its former prized pupil. And, if you listen closely, you can hear 2008 first-round pick Jason Castro breathing down Towles’ neck.

The Astros have received precious little from the catching position. In 2008, Houston had a collective .256 wOBA from those donning the tools of ignorance (29th in the majors). The team “improved” to .276 in 2009, rocketing up to 28th in the big leagues. Offensive ciphers like Brad Ausmus, Humberto Quintero and Ivan Rodriguez have been penciled into the lineup, as Towles toiled in Triple-A, on the bench or on the DL.

So, what’s going on here? Is Towles a bust, or have the Astros shot themselves in the foot by preferring veterans with slack bats? Who shot J.R.’s career? Let’s examine Towles’ history to figure out who done it.

Selected in the 20th round of the 2004 draft out of North Central Junior College, Towles basically spent the first three seasons of his pro career bashing and getting banged up.

He struggled in rookie ball during the summer of ’04, but batted a combined .327/.402/.534 in the Low-A South Atlantic in 2005 and 2006. Towles didn’t draw many walks (7.2 BB%) but he made frequent, loud contact (14.6 K%, with a .207 Isolated Power). Unusually agile for a catcher, Towles also earned some Jason Kendall comps by swiping 24 bases between ’05 and ’06 (he was caught 12 times, however).

However, Towles couldn’t answer the bell with any frequency. According to Baseball America, he needed surgery in 2004 after taking a foul tip off of his right index finger, slowing him at the start of 2005, and he dealt with right knee tendinitis in 2006.

Two-thousand seven turned out to be J.R.’s breakout campaign. He started slowly in the High-A Carolina League, but mashed after getting bumped up to the Double-A Texas League following Lou Santangelo’s 50-game PED suspension. He also logged some games in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League.

In 422 combined PA, spent mostly in Double-A, Towles hit .287/.393/.447. J.R. drew ball four 8.8 percent of the time, whiffing 13.5 percent with a .160 ISO. Towles stole 14 bags, but he did far more harm than good by getting nabbed 13 times. A late-season stint in Houston was fruitful (a 157 wRC+ in 44 PA).

Towles looked poised to ease the anguish of Astros fans subjected to way, way too much Ausmus and Quintero behind the plate. From ’07 to 2009, he compiled .289/.375/.455 triple-slash with Round Rock, walking 9.3 percent, striking out 15.5 percent and posting a .166 ISO.

Yet, after two dismal stints with Houston, Towles’ career line in the majors would make Ausmus puff out his chest: .188/.280/.329 in 268 PA, a performance which rates as 38 percent worse than average, once park and league factors are accounted for (62 wRC+).

Those numbers probably make fantasy owners want to run and hide. But those willing to give Towles a chance could snag a quality offensive catcher at a dirt cheap price.

Chill out about the major league performance. We’re talking about half of a season’s worth of PAs, spread over three years. Even if you want to slice and dice such a small sample (not a good idea), there are positives to be found. Towles has drawn a walk 8.2 percent, with a .141 ISO. His BABIP in the majors is unsustainably low, at .218.

The career .299/.390/.473 minor league hitter is projected by CHONE to bat .252/.332/.409 for the Astros in 2010. For reference, the overall line for MLB backstops last season was .254/.320/.395.

The 26 year-old has little star potential, and Castro (ranked as Houston’s top prospect) isn’t far off. Also, injuries remain a problem: according to the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool, J.R. was sidelined in both 2008 and 2009 with a strained hamstring, while missing time in ’09 with a fractured nose, too. But Towles figures to get the bulk of the playing time to start 2010.

Towles is far from a sure thing, given his propensity to get dinged up and Castro’s close major league ETA. Still, he has an interesting bat at a position where offense is often scarce. J.R. might not be long for Houston, but his career isn’t shot, either.

The Houston Astros project to have a few black holes in their 2009 lineup. An Aaron Boone/Geoff Blum platoon of doom might make Astros fans long for the days of Ty Wigginton, and center fielder Michael Bourn racked up a mind-bending -21.6 batting runs in 2008. Add in an aging middle-infield combo, and it’s easy to see why PECOTA envisions just 703 runs scored for the ‘Stros, topping only the PETCO-penalized Padres and the offensively puny Giants.

Catcher was another source of angst for the club in 2008, as Houston backstops combined to post a sickly .201/.281/.289 line. Even by the modest standards of the position (the average MLB catcher hit .255/.324/.389), the Astros received precious little from long-time offensive cipher Brad Ausmus, minor league journeyman Humberto Quintero and busted prospect J.R. Towles.

Apparently unwilling to trust Towles with the everyday job following a very sour cup of coffee last season, the Astros have reportedly inked Ivan Rodriguez to a 1-year, $1.5 million deal with an additional $1.5M in possible incentives.

Long noted for an arm capable of launching projectiles into space, “Pudge” has seen his offensive production slide considerably since 2005. After compiling wOBA’s between .361 and .381 between 2002-2004, Rodriguez has followed up with marks of .312, .330, .306 and .317 from ’05 to ’08. The 37 year-old is just about the least patient hitter that you’re going to find (our plate discipline stats dating back to 2005 show Rodriguez swinging at 38.3% of pitches out of the zone), but he made up for it previously with a good deal of extra-base thump. That ability to drive the ball is in question at this point: I-Rod posted his lowest slugging percentage (.394) and Isolated Power (.118) since 1992.

There’s little risk in signing Pudge at such a discount rate- he’d need to produce less than one win above replacement to be worth his salary with the incentives. However, it’s not especially clear that Rodriguez constitutes a clear upgrade over the much-maligned Towles, at least at the plate:

CHONE:
I-Rod: .299 wOBA
Towles: .320 wOBA

PECOTA:
I-Rod: .263/.301/.364
Towles: .230/.301/.383

Towles was brutal in the majors last season (.235 wOBA in 171 PA), but his BABIP was an impossibly low .157. Short of having magnets placed on the ball and on the gloves of the defense, that’s not bloody likely to happen again. The 25 year-old has little star potential, but he is a career .302/.386/.476 hitter in the minors.

Rodriguez becomes a potential target in deeper leagues based on there just plain being few attractive options behind the dish, but keep Towles in mind in the event that he works his way back into the major league picture. He’s not great, but he’s nowhere near as bad as his ’08 big league train wreck would have you believe.