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Last year, the Twins tied for 17th last year in wOBA from their outfield. Over the winter, they said goodbye to 1,211 plate appearances of Denard Span & Ben Revere — traded to the Nationals & Phillies, respectively — and imported no one to replace them. So as you can imagine, there’s a lot of work to be done here. Read the rest of this entry »
OK, so the language in the title might be a bit inflammatory. I can’t, with 100% certainty, say that I absolutely, positively won’t draft these guys, but based on the current chatter and their ADP rankings, they will not be targets for me. Now, if they somehow slipped a few rounds and it looks like they could, potentially, be a bargain, then I might think otherwise, but that’s a pretty big “if” for me right now. Here’s who I’m avoiding… Read the rest of this entry »
We see it all too often in fantasy — a former superstar and usual top pick ends up on the decline and still gets drafted or traded for value based solely on name and former reputation. Maybe some people are anticipating and hoping for a return to the glory years. Maybe some people are just fans and can’t let go. Whatever the reason may be, the player’s value is over-inflated on draft day and, more often than not, a complete disappointment by season’s end. With a top five ranking amongst catchers and an overall ADP of 79.64, Joe Mauer seems like a candidate who fits this description.
Let’s face it — when the A’s acquired Kila Ka’aihue from the Royals on Tuesday, they simply added another mediocre Major League hopeful who crushes it in Triple-A but will probably never get it on the big league level to an already disastrous first base situation. Ever since Jason Giambi jumped ship for the big bucks and bright lights of New York in 2002, the first base situation for the A’s has been a relative mess. Sure, Nick Swisher brought some productivity to the position when he was moved in from the outfield back in 2006, but you can add Ka’aihue’s name to a shameful list that includes such greats as Scott Hatteberg, Eric Karros, Erubiel Durazo, Dan Johnson, and Daric Barton. You can throw in a post-steroidal Giambi and a way-past-his-prime Nomar to the mix as well if you like as well. How the A’s end up mixing in Ka’aihue into the 1B/DH mix will ultimately be decided next spring, but fantasy owners are already speculating the potential ugliness for the A’s in 2012.
– Brian Wilson was placed on the DL with elbow problems yesterday morning, leaving Jeremy Affeldt as the likely closer in San Francisco. I suspect Ramon Ramirez may also get a few shots at closing games, but for now, add Affeldt if you can only pick one.
– You might be tempted to bring Brandon McCarthy in for two starts this week, but you shouldn’t. First off, both of McCarthy’s starts are away from home, which is always a bad sign. Secondly, he faces the Yankees and the Red Sox. It’s not going to be pretty, so keep him on your bench of on the waiver wire.
Time to take a look and see who might be available in your leagues and could be worth adding to your squad. It’s still real early, but there might be a few choice names out there that can help, whether it’s short term or long term. Here’s a few to think about… Read the rest of this entry »
Time to get all up in that left field position and see what we can find (sounds dirty). It’s an interesting position because it sports a top-five man (Ryan Braun, at 4.87 ADP), and yet the final tier averages somewhere around a 250 ADP. It’s not the deepest of positions, or it’s at least top-heavy.
The second tier has a bunch of second- and third-round guys that can offer some speed or slugging (in the case of Matt Holliday (21.89 ADP), a little of both), but there’s a curious inclusion in the tier that stands out. Right there, in the fifth round, there’s a player that could give you third-round value a good twenty picks later. Why are people avoiding Manny Ramirez (65.30) like the plague? Of course, there’s the obvious answer that comes in the form of a positive test for the wrong substance – and perhaps that should make people nervous. It’s a fly in the ointment and it probably won’t help to quote the projections that have Manny being the Manny of old (minus a few points for getting older). It’s a risk that has to be accounted for.
But lets say your league doesn’t break things down into separate positions in the outfield, then Manny comes in right around Andre Ethier (67.48 ADP) and Nelson Cruz (67.66 ADP). Those guys come with their own risk attached. Remember that Ethier used to be a 20-home-run-hitting outfielder as recently as 2008, and that Cruz, despite all his power and speed, has a 26% career strikeout percentage and a .255 career batting average (though I will admit to liking his power and speed contributions). Which risk do you take?
The next tier has some nice power, and even bounce-back candidate Alfonso Soriano (ADP 78.40) for power/speed potential too. But again, one man stands out like a sore thumb. Nolan Reimold (ADP 214.72) is young and has power and speed and a starting job that he should keep all year because of the rebuilding nature of his team. Much has been made of his Achilles’ injury, but perhaps many aren’t aware that Reimold made his stellar debut (.279/.369/.466 with 15 home runs and 8 stolen bases and a .365 wOBA) while being hobbled for much of the year with a 25% tear on that same tendon. What will he do once it heals? At that ADP, the shot at a .280 20+/10 outfielder should make you salivate. (At least it does that for me, am I weird?)
I’d hate to go all crazy on young ‘uns because there are plenty of values among the older left fielders. Plenty of old man skills, at least – Josh Willingham (270.94) sports those and is a value when surrounded by players like Carlos Ruiz (275.41 ADP) and Scott Hairston (277.51 ADP).
But I’m drawn to upside, and there’s Matt LaPorta (325.88 ADP) sitting right there for the plucking. He’s had some strikeout issues in the past, and he’s been a little old for his minor league levels, so he may not be the ueber-prospect we thought he was. But he has real power – his .188 debut ISO was low compared to his minor league power – and that’s always got a place in my lineup. Especially at this price.
Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, and third basemen.)
These rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.
Ryan Braun is in a league of his own. With his massive power, speed and plus batting averages, he’s the young Alex Rodriguez of the outfield.
That said, the second tier offers some nice talent and I’m sure some will feel that the first tier could be expanded. Carl Crawford matched his best two seasons with another .300/15/60 effort, and at 28 there’s no real reason to predict a downfall next year. If you’d like your speedster to come with a few home runs, he’s one of probably two players in the league capable of putting up 15 home runs alongside 55+ stolen bases. Matt Holliday is sort of a Braun-lite, but if the stars aligned, his power could surge and make them practically indistinguishable for fantasy purposes.
That’s where the arguments should end. Jason Bay is on the way down along with his batting average, and even with his nice power and a sprinkling of stolen bases, he’s no first-tier player. Manny Ramirez just won’t play enough games next year, shold be on the way down just because of his age (37), and now has the PED question mark. Adam Lind may someday be in the conversation for the first tier, but the power currently has too many question marks (+.100 ISO from 2008-2009).
The third tier is the value tier. The best tiers are the ones where up-and-coming youngsters share space with declining veterans because one or the other is sure to be over- or under-valued in a given league. Does your tier value veterans too highly? Let them have Carlos Lee and his waning power and speed. Someone sure that Alfonso Soriano will rediscover his mojo? Pick the surging Nolan Reimold for his power and enjoy his surprising speed many rounds later. Even Johnny Damon’s metronome-like 20/20-ish production deserves a look here. Given all of these options, it does look like Raul Ibanez won’t be on many of my teams next year. Not when I can possibly get more power from Carlos Quentin later on.
The last tier reminds us why we don’t pick outfielders too early. The final grouping boasts a player that could steal 40+ bases with a starting job in Julio Borbon, and a trio of sluggers that are likely to hit between 25-30 home runs in Matt LaPorta, Juan Rivera and Josh Willingham. Even the just-off candidates are interesting. If Seth Smith gets a starting job, he rockets up the list with .300/25/10 potential. Travis Snider is battling some strikeout issues at the major league level and doesn’t have a guaranteed job coming out of spring training, but deserves a mention because of his minor league numbers (1.094 OPS in AAA last year) and age (21).
One thing is clear when looking at the left fielders in 2010: Unless you’re getting Braun (or maybe Crawford), it’s wise to wait.
Maybe I’ve been surfing the web a little too much. Maybe becoming Stewart Cink’s 559,250th follower on Twitter has addled my brain. But today I thought I would take a look at three players whose last names begin with W, and do so for the win, or not, as the case may be. Hey, at least this intro was a little better than my last one, eh?
Josh Willingham – The offense around him is not good. Eric Seidman pointed out at the beginning of June that all of his nine home runs were solo home runs – threatening the ‘record’ for solo home run percentage set by Curtis Granderson in 2007 (21 out of 23). Well, Willingham has finally hit a non-solo home run – but only one. So you probably don’t pick Willingham up for RBI, but it’s also starting to look like his mini power breakout is for real. He’s shown the on-base skills before (12.9% BB% this year, 11.2% career), and his .317 BABIP (.306 career) does not portend a quick and painful slump in the future. Could the new power be as simple as the fact that his new park is helping him out? Park factors are not always stable from year to year, so this year’s half season, in which Florida’s stadium is giving up more home runs than Washington’s, is less relevant when put against that same stadium’s consistent pitcher-friendly park factors. Take last year, for instance, and Washington’s stadium gave up 10% more home runs and doubles as Willingham’s old park. Of course, his .545 slugging percentage is over 10% better than his career slugging percentage in Florida (.432), but Willingham is 30 and could easily be peaking this year. Wonky math aside, Willingham will get his chance to prove that he is who he thinks he is – in Washington or elsewhere.
Josh Whitesell – The Diamondbacks finally got savvy to their lost season and began to look to the future at first base. With Conor Jackson still laid low by his mysterious illness, and with Tony Clark shown the door (and over to the Mets perhaps?), Whitesell gets his chance. His consistently high strikeout rates in the minors (ranging from 22% to 26% before this year) have led to inconsistent batting averages (ranging from .264 to .328). But this year he finally cut the rate down below 20% and had a good followup to last year’s career best .328/.425/.568 AAA debut. He’s only two years younger than incumbent Chad Tracy, but Tracy’s declining OPS and difficulty staying on the field are both reasons that Whitesell may have a window to take over the position if he starts out hot. His 23% strikeout rate in his 62 major-league at-bats this year bodes well, even if he hasn’t shown the power yet.
Cory Wade – Wade’s story is a sad story that we’ve all heard before: Young, promising reliever debuts on a veteran team led by Joe Torre, who goes on to ride that young arm to the postseason without a look at the usage stats and patterns or a care for the reliever’s future. Call Scott Proctor for details, but Wade is on the DL with a sore shoulder and it all sounds too familiar. With all the research about starters’ usage and their development, perhaps a little more attention could go to the blue-collar workers out in the pen. Torre is, once again, using his relievers more than any other manager in the league, and Ramon Troncoso and Ronald Belisario are the new Cory Wades. They, like Wade, are among league leaders in relief appearances. Like Wade (71.1 IP), Torre’s new toys are on pace to rack up big innings totals (Troncoso – 102 IP pace, Belisario – 86 IP pace). Like he did with Wade and Proctor before, will Torre break his newest toys?