The Astros’ bullpen is a mishmash of waiver claims, Rule V selections and players looking to resurrect their career. None of the following names will appear high on your cheat sheets this draft season — if they appear at all — but some of these arms could provide fair value for those unwilling to pay for saves or holds in 2013.
The closer:
The injury to Alex Gordon opens up more playing time this spring for the Royals in the infield. Most of the early speculation has been on Alberto Callaspo and Josh Fields. But one player who should not be counted out is Mike Aviles. After a breakout season in 2008, Aviles crashed last year, mainly due to an injury which required surgery. In Friday’s game that the FanGraphs group caught, Aviles started the game at second base while Callaspo was at third and Fields at first.
Aviles had Tommy John surgery in July. The normal prognosis is for up to a year to come back from the procedure. But Aviles was feeling strong early in camp and there were thoughts he might be ready to play much earlier, possibly even making the Royals as a utility infielder. The plan for the Royals was to give Aviles some early playing time in the Cactus League at second base, where he would not need to use his arm so much to make long throws. And with Gordon going down, it made finding playing time for Aviles even easier.
In his two games so far, Aviles has gone 2-for-3 in each. Additionally, the Royals consider Aviles to be a strong defensive player. Manager Trey Hillman told the Associated Press:
“I asked one of our developmental people if they could identify our most fundamentally sound infielder. Its (sic) Mike Aviles far as textbook fielding a ground ball, approaching a ground ball and doing it right all the time. One of the staff guys grabbed me the other day and said that’s as good as it gets.”
Neither Callaspo nor Betancourt have good defensive reputations. Callaspo put up some good fielding numbers in limited time previously at second base, but was below average last year in 146 games and the perception was even worse than the numbers. Betancourt had a UZR/150 of -23.9 last year, including a -28.6 after being acquired by the Royals.
If Aviles is healthy and has the best defensive option, his playing time might rest with how well he does at the plate. His big year in 2008 was the result of a .357 BABIP. Last year in 36 games he posted just a .223 mark. The projection systems show Aviles with a BABIP ranging from .300-.316 and with an AVG of .270-.284.
If everything goes right, Aviles could produce a .290 AVG with double digit totals in both SB and HR. That could be a nice pot of cheese at the end of your fantasy draft when you are looking to fill your middle infield position.
One other factor to consider is that Chris Getz is on the roster as a contender for playing time at second base. Getz was not overly impressive either offensively or defensively last year, although fantasy leaguers enjoyed his SB output. So, Aviles is potentially vying with both Getz and Callaspo for playing time at second, the position he is likely to play early in the season as he builds up arm strength.
Because of his defensive reputation on the club, Aviles should have a leg up in the competition. And while he may not get a ton of ABs in the spring due to Kansas City spreading them out to all of the contenders, if Aviles proves healthy throughout Cactus League play he has an excellent shot of breaking camp as a starter. And if he does get the playing time, Aviles is a good fantasy option.
According to MLB.com’s Dick Kaegel, the Royals have released arbitration-eligible DH/1B Mike Jacobs.
Ignoring Jacobs’ allergy to reaching base (career OBP: 313), inability to handle fellow lefties (.221/.269/.374 career vs. LHP) and iron glove (-9.0 UZR at first base), GM Dayton Moore acquired the 29 year-old from the Marlins last offseason for RHP Leo Nunez. Jacobs posted a .305 wOBA in 2009, which comes to -10.3 runs below average with the bat.
With Jacobs out of town, the Royals could look to Josh Fields or Kila Kaaihue to DH.
Fields, soon to be 27, was picked up along with Chris Getz earlier this offseason for Mark Teahen.
The 18th overall pick in the 2004 draft, Fields is a career .229/.302/.416 hitter in 746 major league PA. He posted a .336 wOBA and popped 23 HR with the White Sox back in 2007, but his career prospects have dimmed considerably since then.
Fields hit a mild .256/.341/.431 at AAA Charlotte in 2008 and .265/.357/.469 in 2009.
The former college QB has done a decent job of working the count in the majors, with a 9.3 percent walk rate and a 23.8 outside-swing percentage. Contact, however, has been hard to come by. Fields has whiffed 34 percent of the time, with a 71.1% contact rate (80-81% MLB average).
In the minors, the 6-2 righty batter showed a platoon split. Fields whapped lefty pitching for a .279/.386/.494 line, while hitting righties at a .266/.348/.443 rate.
In the big leagues, Fields has smacked southpaws for a .285/.356/.580 triple-slash, while laying an egg against same-handed hurlers (.206/.280/.348). It’s a good idea not to get too worked up about platoon splits based on a fairly small sample. But as a guy in his late twenties with limited defensive value, Fields is going to have to show more offensive force to remain relevant.
CHONE projects Fields to bat .247/.330/.407 in 2010 (.325 wOBA). ZiPS is even more pessimistic, throwing out a .237/.311/.394 line (.310 wOBA).
Ka’aihue, 25, always displayed a keen eye in the minors, but his performance was nondescript until 2008.
The Kila Monster batted a combined .314/.456/.628 between the AA Texas League and the AAA Pacific Coast League in ’08. The big lefty hitter walked an astounding 20.2 percent of the time, with a .314 ISO. Per Minor League Splits, Ka’aihue’s major league equivalent line was .243/.354/.442.
With Jacobs competing with the Guillens, Betancourts and Olivos of the world to see who could trot back to the dugout quickest, Kila spent 2009 back at AAA Omaha. While he was still exceptionally patient (18.8 BB%), Ka’aihue’s power output was disappointing (.181 ISO). Kila’s .252/.392/.433 showing with the O-Royals equated to just a .205/.316/.325 major league line.
It’s hard not to admire Ka’aihue’s zen-like patience at the plate. But first base/DH prospects, in their mid-twenties, with limited power, don’t translate especially well to the next level. CHONE tabs Kila for a .243/.355/.393 line in 2010 (.335 wOBA), while ZiPS envisions a .255/.350/.403 performance (.335 wOBA). Ka’aihue is pretty much the new Dan Johnson.
Of course, the Royals could go outside the organization to fill the DH spot. Or, they could shift Billy Butler back to the spot and pursue a first baseman. It’s also possible that the charred remains of Jose Guillen’s career could shift to DH full-time (sigh).
There’s no time like the present for both Fields and Ka’aihue. Each needs to produce in the here and now to avoid becoming intimately familiar with the AAA circuit.
The Chicago White Sox organization has traded rookie second baseman Chris Getz and disappointing third baseman Josh Fields, a former first round draft pick, to the Kansas City Royals for infielder/outfielder Mark Teahen.
With a .323 wOBA in ’09, Teahen is nothing special as a hitter, especially for someone who spends most of his time at third base or in right field. The 28-year-old posted a 0.3 WAR in ’09 and was a both a below-average hitter and a below-average fielder at every position he played at. For fantasy managers, Teahen has value simply because of his versatility; he should be eligible for third base and the outfield in all formats, while he also appeared in 11 games at first base and three games at second base. He is good for a batting average of about .250-270 and, if he plays everyday, he should produce 12-18 homers, although the move to Chicago could inflate his offensive numbers. With the outfield depth looking pretty good, Teahen should see everyday duty at third base with Gordon Beckham moving back to his natural position at shortstop and Alexei Ramirez sliding back to second base.
Fields wore out his welcome in Chicago in ’09 with another disappointing season. He hit just .222/.301/.347 in 239 at-bats and was eventually pushed aside by Beckham. Fields will turn 27 in December so time is running out for him to reclaim the form that saw him slug 23 homers in 373 at-bats for the White Sox in ’07. Even then, though, he hit just .244/.308/.480. He has enough power to be valuable in deep AL formats, but he will likely do a lot of damage in batting average and he doesn’t get on base enough to help in runs. Fields made 17 appearances at first base in ’09 so he should be eligible there, as well as at the hot corner. Don’t expect him to see much playing time if Alex Gordon can turn things around.
The White Sox organization parts ways with Getz after handing the rookie the starting second base job in ’09. The 26-year-old infielder missed time with injuries but he hit .261/.324/.347 in 375 at-bats and stole 25 bases in 27 attempts. His speed makes him an interesting fantasy player, as he should improve offensively in ’10, although the lineup around him could be weaker. Getz isn’t going to drive in runs so he needs to improve his walk rate (7.4%) so he can throw up a better runs-scored total. He was overpowered by good fastballs in ’09, but hopefully that was caused – at least somewhat – by the broken finger and oblique injuries (His slugging percentage plummeted in the last two months of the season). Because of his speed, Getz is potentially a better fantasy option at second base than Royals incumbent Alberto Callaspo, who probably won’t drive in 70+ runs again and his power output exceeded expectations based on his minor-league numbers. Monitor the race in spring training, though, to see if Getz will earn enough playing time to be of value.
Stock Up
Jorge de la Rosa, Rockies
de la Rosa sure has played roster hot-potato for a lefty cooking in the low-90’s, having been a part of four trades while seeing time in the Arizona, Boston, Milwaukee, Kansas City and Colorado systems. The 28 year-old, as covered in great detail by Eno Sarris, has kicked off the 2009 season with a 2.99 FIP, 9.49 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9 in 42.2 innings. de la Rosa has been fortunate in the home run department (0.42 HR/9, 4.9 HR/FB%), but his XFIP (based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR rate) still checks in at a tidy 3.70. If de la Rosa can keep the walks at a moderate rate, he could be an asset in most any league.
Joe Mauer, Twins
I know- Mauer has long been a fantasy darling, as a line-drive hitting backstop with excellent control of the zone. But the 26 year-old’s power outburst to begin the ’09 season bears mentioning: he’s already popped 6 out of the park in 73 plate appearances (this after hitting a combined 16 dingers in over 1,100 PA’s during the 2007 and 2008 seasons). Don’t expect him to suddenly go all Mike Piazza on the league, but Mauer would only add to his immense value if he could loft 20 big flys in addition to his high-contact, patient act at the dish.
Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
Ubaldo has done a better job of limiting the base on balls in recent starts, with 22 K’s, 6 walks and 6 runs allowed in 27 frames during the month of May. Like de la Rosa, Jimenez has had some good luck on flyballs (0.20 HR/9, 2.4 HR/FB%), but his XFIP is a decent 4.43 despite a disastrous April (16 runs, 19/17 K/BB in 19 IP). The combination of whiffs (8.02 K/9) and worm-burners (50 GB%) makes the 25 year-old Dominican Republic native an intriguing trade target.
Jayson Werth, Phillies
The whole “is player X overrated/underrated” debate is obviously subjective, but Werth has to place among the more underappreciated talents in the game. How many people realize just how valuable this rangy, 6-2, 225 pounder has been for the Phillies since 2007? A 3.4 Win player in partial playing time in ’07, Werth posted a 5.3 WAR season for the Phillies in 2008 (tied with Jimmy Rollins for 2nd in a star-studded lineup), and he’s produced 1.4 wins already in 2009. With a .415 wOBA (.294/.396/.540) and 8 steals in 9 attempts, Werth is producing in every facet of the game. He’s even making a little more contact (23.8 K%, 29.9 career average), while raking against righties (.849 OPS) in addition to his usual lefty lashing (1.142 OPS).
Rick Porcello, Tigers
Porcello has gone from Seton Hall Prep to viable major league starter in less than two seasons, as the 20 year-old sinkerballer has allowed 2 runs in 18 innings during the month of May. Porcello isn’t blowing batters away (5.67 K/9), but he’s stingy with the free passes (2.95 BB/9) and generates grounders (53.6 GB%) with the sinker, a mid-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup. Porcello is doing a better job of throwing his three quality offerings (particularly his curveball) from the same arm-slot. Check out his release point chart against the Yankees, in a 3.2 inning, 6 run drubbing on April 29th…
…and his release point in a 6-inning, 1 run gem against the A’s on May 16th…
Stock Down
Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
There has been a general malaise over the South Side bats in 2009 (the Pale Hose rank 26th in wOBA), and Ramirez is one of the main culprits. Ramirez has been slightly more “patient” in ’09 ( we’re speaking in incredibly relative terms here: 5.6 BB%, 37.2 Outside Swing Percentage in 2009 compared to 3.6 BB% and a 42.7 O-Swing% in ’08), but the “Cuban Missile” has failed to launch, with a sickly .243 wOBA. His BABIP sits at a very low .238, so some positive regression should be expected. Still, his .051 ISO is downright Bloomquistian. This is what you sign up for if you gamble on a batting average-dependent player: when those hits don’t fall in, that player’s value craters.
Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
Just when it looked like Wellemeyer might establish himself as a competent mid-rotation cog (4.51 FIP in 2008), he has gone and reminded everyone why he’s a former Cub, Marlin and Royal. His K rate has dipped from 6.29 per nine in ’08 to 5.28 in ’09, with his BB/9 inflating from 2.91 to 4.11. Wellemeyer’s go-to secondary offering last year was a mid-80’s slider (thrown 23.6% of the time), but his slider usage is down this season (12.9%), as is its velocity (83.1 MPH). In place of the hard breaker, the 30 year-old has mixed in a few high-80’s cutters and some high-70’s curves. The kitchen sink approach does not appear to be working.
Josh Fields, White Sox
The former first-rounder out of Oklahoma State has been a wreck at the plate this season, whiffing 32.8 percent of the time while making Scott Podsednik look like a power hitter (.096 ISO). That’s quite the fall for a guy who authored a .236 ISO during the 2007 season. At 26 years old and coming off a mundane season spent at AAA Charlotte in 2008 (.347 wOBA, .772 OPS), Fields isn’t such a highly-regarded youngster than he can continue to post oh-fer’s and stay in the lineup. He’s not on the Drew Henson path of doom quite yet, but he might want to take a few snaps in between BP sessions.
Armando Galarraga, Tigers
As a free-talent pickup from Texas, Galarraga was a pleasant surprise for the Tigers in 2008 while many other Detroit hurlers crashed and burned. A good deal of regression should have been expected this season (Galarraga’s 3.73 ERA far surpassed his 4.88 FIP), but we weren’t quite anticipating this kind of spontaneous combustion. While Verlander, Jackson and Porcello deal, 2008’s nominal ace has a 5.62 FIP and a walk rate closing in on five batters per nine innings. His last outing on May 17th was a 0.2 inning, 5-run disaster against the light-hitting A’s.
Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
The Crushin’ Russian has not lived up to his nickname so far in 2009. Kouzmanoff’s Isolated Power figure comes in at just .101, continuing a three-year downward trend: his ISO was .182 in 2007 (his first full season in the big leagues) and .173 in 2008. The 28 year-old’s wOBA’s have dipped from .339 in ’07, .316 in ’08 and just .284 in 2009. The Padres are giving some thought to putting Chase Headley back at the hot corner, to make room for mammoth 6-6, 275 pound prospect Kyle Blanks in left field (it’s a stretch, but he’s more athletic than you might think). Kouzmanoff will need to show something in the coming weeks if he hopes to avoid being usurped.
The lineup on the South Side of Chicago is anything but set at the present moment. The White Sox have three playing time wars being waged, with center field, second base and the hot corner all up for grabs. The third base tussle features a former top prospect whose star has dimmed, a utility man imported from the Bronx, and a young Cuban signee. Let’s begin with the fallen farm product.
When the White Sox plucked Josh Fields with the 18th overall selection in the ’04 amateur draft, he was expected to be the heir apparent to Joe Crede. The Oklahoma State product didn’t overwhelm anyone during stints at High-A Winston Salem in 2004 (.285/.332/.445) or AA Birmingham in 2005 (.252/.341/.409), but he remained well-liked by scouts and rewarded that faith with a more powerful .305/.379/.515 line with AAA Charlotte in 2006. Some caveats do apply, however. Charlotte is a tremendous power park (inflating HR production by 32% from 2006-2008), so his park adjusted line was a more tame .299/.374/.484, and he did whiff nearly 30% of the time.
Fields opened the 2007 season back in the International League (batting .283/.394/.498 with a 16 BB%), but he found himself in the majors that summer as Crede hit the DL and eventually the surgeon’s table with a balky back. The 6-1, 220 pound Fields showed plenty of power in a park that smiles upon righty pull-hitters, posting a .236 ISO and 23 home runs in 418 PA. His control of the strike zone was unrefined, however, as he punched out 33.5% of the time and posted an 8.6 BB%.
Instead of building upon his respectable big league showing, Fields turned in a season to forget in 2008. Sent back to Charlotte, he batted .246/.341/.431, showing patience (11.8 BB%) but also an alarming propensity to swing and miss (35.5 K%). Fields battled a right knee injury that required offseason surgery, and found himself grabbing pine in favor of the hacktastic Juan Uribe when Crede’s back went kaput once again. Both of those fellows have since moved on, and Fields appears to have the upper hand on the job at this juncture.
The 26 year-old bears resemblance to Arizona Diamondbacks third-sacker Mark Reynolds. Both are right-handed batters with pop and adequate walk rates, but both are also afflicted with contact issues and can be neutralized by quality same-side breaking stuff. Fields has roped southpaws in the big leagues (.309/.363/.667 in 136 PA) and in the minors (.283/.389/.504), but his work against righties (.202/.279/.368 in 342 big league PA’s, .265/.348/.439 in the minors) hasn’t been anything to write Ozzie Guillen about. As such, he might end up in a platoon with Wilson Betemit.
Most projection systems peg Fields to post league-average numbers at the hot corner in 2009: CHONE forecasts a .247/.331/.435 line, while PECOTA doled out a .236/.324/.437 prognostication. Fields isn’t a bad fallback option if he secures a starting job, but he’s probably more acceptable regular than exceptional player.
The Seattle Mariners enter spring training with a wide-open situation in the bullpen. The M’s will no longer give the ball to J.J. Putz in the ninth inning, as the soon-to-be 32 year-old was shipped to the Mets in a twelve-player package. Also headed to Queens in that swap was groundball specialist Sean Green. After two years of, well, putsing around in the ‘pen, 2006 first-rounder Brandon Morrow will be moved to the rotation on a full-time basis. So, who’s left in that Seattle bullpen? Let’s take a look.
The top returning reliever, per WPA, is righty Roy Corcoran. The smallish 28 year-old turned in a 3.81 FIP and kept his infielders very busy (69.5 GB%), but there’s some question about the repeatability of his work. The former Expo/Nat struck out about as many batters (4.83 K/9) as he walked (4.46 BB/9) and his career minor league walk rate (4.14 BB/9) is rather high as well. Low-K pitchers can be plenty successful by inducing grounders and limiting walks, but Corcoran doesn’t appear to have the control to make that equation work.
Mark Lowe, 28, is coming off of a season in which he posted a 4.42 FIP. He punched out 7.77 batters per nine innings, but his control often evaded him (4.81 BB/9). The 6-3, 200 pounder has long been on prospect lists due to his mid-90’s heat/mid-80’s slider combo, but injuries (shoulder impingement as well as microfracture surgery on his elbow in an effort to regenerate cartilage in the joint) have held him back. If you’re looking for a guy who fits the closer profile from a “stuff” standpoint, it’s probably Lowe.
Like Lowe, David Aardsma is a flame-throwing righty without sharp command. The 27 year-old’s mix of mid-90’s fastballs and hard sliders have yet to produce anything but angst for his employers, as Aardsma has skipped between the Giants, Cubs, White Sox and Red Sox, before ending up in Seattle for minor league southpaw Fabian Williamson. The 2003 first-rounder has fanned his fair share of hitters in the bigs (8.65 K/9), but an atrocious walk rate (5.6 BB/9) has kept him from being anything more than a replacement-level reliever, with a 4.90 FIP. One thing to watch: according to our pitch data, Aardsma started using an upper-80’s splitter (thrown 10.9% of the time) in addition to his fastball and slider. The chances of Aardsma finally delivering are long, but the M’s have some experience with a control-challenged reliever adding a splitter and subsequently taking off.
Tyler Walker, formerly of the Giants, might also be able to work his way into the mix. The 32 year-old posted a 4.24 FIP last season, with 8.27 K/9 and 3.54 BB/9. The 6-3, 275 pounder works in the low 90’s with his fastball, but has progressivley become more reliant on a low 80’s slider (thrown 30% in ’06, 31.4% in ’07 and 40.3% in ’08).
It’s also possible that some of the team’s rotation excess ends up in the ‘pen, particularly lefties Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ryan Feierabend. Rowland-Smith appeared in 47 games last season (12 starts), posting a 4.53 FIP. His fastball won’t overwhelm anyone (88.7 MPH), but he also mixes in a slider, curve and a changeup on a fairly regular basis. Similarly, Feierabend supplements modest heat (87.8 MPH) with three offspeed pitches, relying heavily upon a high-70’s changeup.
Another long-term name to keep in mind is Josh Fields. The former Georgia Bulldog closer was selected by the Braves in the ’07 amateur draft, but the club didn’t meet his bonus demands. After improving his stock during the 2008 season, Fields was nabbed by the M’s with the 20th overall pick and…didn’t sign, at least not right away. The Boras client recently came to terms, however, receiving a bonus nearing $2 million (as a college senior, Fields had up until next June’s draft to negotiate a contract). The 23 year-old righty fits the profile of a late-inning reliever better than any of the current options, as he comes equipped with mid-90’s gas and a hard curveball. The 6-0, 180 pounder is likely the heir apparent to Putz in the long run.
Josh Fields was a two-sport star at Oklahoma State, as he was the starting quarterback for the Cowboys and helped lead them to two wins over Oklahoma during his tenure. Fields made the decision to concentrate on baseball and he was the 18th pick of the 2004 draft for the White Sox.
Despite not having the baseball-heavy background of some of his peers, Fields turned in a nice year at Triple-A in 2006 and was considered one of the top prospects in the game for the 2007 season. He responded by hitting 23 home runs in 373 at-bats in his rookie season.
But 2008 was a different story. Fields spent most of the season in the minors and when he did play in the majors, manager Ozzie Guillen constantly harped on his poor defense. Additionally, Fields suffered from a patella injury last year and had off-season surgery on his right knee.
However, Fields is a guy to watch because the starting third base job is his to lose. Yes, his strikeout rate is alarming. But this is also a guy with a .221 ISO in his 478 plate appearances in the majors.
If you miss out on the top tier third baseman and none of the lower tier guys strike your fancy, Fields is an excellent gamble on the late rounds of your draft. He has the opportunity to get 550 at-bats and he has produced power at both Triple-A and the majors in the last three years when given a shot at regular playing time. Fields offers 25 HR power at the end of a draft, something not many players can say.