Archive for josh bell

I don’t mean to over-hype anyone. Or maybe I do. I don’t know. I seek to provide an adequate amount of hype and keep things in perspective. That said, I’m pretty excited about Josh Bell. You may know him, you may not; he’s slated to be the Pirates’ primary first baseman, maybe with a little bit of backup outfielding thrown in. Josh Shepardson talked about him and his general skill set in November. Bell’s young and a several-time top prospect, although the highest he ever reached on any given list was MLB.com’s, at No. 34 overall prior to 2015. Nothing to sneeze at, but he never carried the same hype as, say, Yoan Moncada currently does. He’s Eric Longenhagen’s No. 50 prospect this year and KATOH’s No. 25. Knowing the gory math that goes into KATOH, I’m very partial to it. Also, all of this suggests I’m not early to any kind of party here. I’m reluctant to claim as much. I just can’t help but produce my own tributes every now and then.

Bell walked more than he struck out last year. As a rookie. That’s what gets to me. Not that it’s never been done before, and it’s not like it was a huge sample size — 153 plate appearances. I found plenty of examples in the last 25 years to compare; Bell’s rookie season is almost a dead ringer for that of Doug Mientkiewicz, a first-ballot Surname Hall of Famer but otherwise mediocre ballplayer with a decent three-year peak.

Where Bell diverges from Mientkiewicz — and everyone else, for that matter — is his hard-hit rate (Hard%). Mientkiewicz decidedly did not hit the ball hard. Among rookies since 2002 (because that’s as far back as our batted ball data from Baseball Info Solution dates) who notched at least a .130 isolated power (ISO), none hit the ball as hard as Bell. Again, small samples, but this is already a decent list to top.

When we expand the sample from rookies to all hitters in that same timeframe, things become even more interesting. Here’s a list of every hitter, in no particular order, who, in any given season, minimum 150 PAs, achieved (1) more walks than strikeouts, (2) an ISO better than .130, and (3) a hard-hit rate better than 33 percent.

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A prototypical mashing first baseman Josh Bell is not. The 24-year-old made his debut in The Show this year and played in 45 games. Due to Starling Marte missing most of September, Bell split his playing time between first base (23 games played and 19 starts) and the outfield (16 games played and 14 starts). At sites with looser playing eligibility rules, Bell will have the added benefit of holding outfield eligibility next year. He graded out terribly defensively in the outfield, and his glove work was a negative at first base, too. Couple his bad defense with his negative contributions on the bases, and despite tallying a 113 wRC+, he earned a -0.4 WAR. Usually defense and base running — beyond stolen bases — don’t come up in fantasy pieces, but I bring both up as they’ll impact Bell’s playing time in 2017 if he’s not able to make improvements. He was no stranger to being lifted from starts early last year, and it was especially maddening in daily fantasy baseball. The good news for Bell is that returning John Jaso was a poor defender in his first season as a full-time first baseman after tallying just five innings at the position in the majors before 2016. Let’s take a look at Bell’s bat. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

Fresh off 98 wins and a third consecutive post-season appearance, the Pirates enter 2016 with an elite outfield and one of baseball’s preeminent pitch framers behind the dish. But the infield, like the Allegheny that flows just beyond PNC’s walls, is both murky and shallow.

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When an organization decides to give a player an opportunity to play every day and take over a starting position, fantasy owners need to stand up and take notice.  Especially if the player qualifies at a position that is either thing to begin with or has been decimated by injuries through these first two months of the season.  Here are two prime examples that are likely sitting on your waiver wire just waiting to be claimed.

Josh Bell, ARI  |3B|  Ownership:  ESPN – 0.5%  Yahoo – 1.0%

Right on the heels of my last Kicking Rocks piece which clamored for Bell’s call-up, the Diamondbacks finally said enough to the Cody Ransom/Ryan Roberts platoon they had working the hot corner this season.  With little or no legitimate production at the position, it made perfect sense for the team to give Bell a shot, if not for anything but to at least just kick the tires and see what they had.  It’s not like things could get worse, right?

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My primary keeper league is a 15-team, mixed roto league where we start two guys at each position with six outfielders and nine pitchers.  We draft our starting roster and then have just two opportunities  — the final week of April and mid-May — to fill out a 10-player bench from the free agent player pool.  That’s it.  No other time.  There’s no streaming of pitchers throughout the year unless you roster a few on your bench and there’s no waiting to pounce on a rookie on the waiver wire once he gets called up.  You need to know in March who is going to get called up, regardless of whether it’s mid-season or September.  The first month and a half is all about knowledge and foresight. Read the rest of this entry »

I wasn’t going to do one of these this week, but with A-Rod going down, here’s some thoughts on who you could pick up to replace him.

Wilson Betemit | Royals | 4% Owned

Dave talked about him yesterday, but he didn’t care enough to talk about his fantasy value. Betemit has always had the power, and just needed the playing time to be worth picking up. He’s playing every day now, so he’s worth your time. Due to his strikeout and low line drive rates, Betemit’s batting average won’t be pretty, so you have to hope his counting stats are good enough to make up for it. If you want to replace A-Rod’s power, pick him up.

Danny Valencia | Twins | 5% Owned

Valencia won’t give you much power, but he’ll keep your batting average at a respectable level. He’s a pretty low risk fill-in, so pick him up if that’s what you’re looking for.

Josh Bell | Orioles | 1% Owned

Bell is more of a high risk guy, who could really pay off if everything clicks. His bat was just OK in Triple-A this year, but after trading Tejada the Orioles wanted to see if he could handle the big show. He’s a switch-hitter with a great line drive stroke, but he strikes out too much to have a high batting average. He hasn’t shown a ton of power recently, and I don’t expect him to. He needs to work on his contact skills, but is a replacement option if you want to take a chance in a keeper league.

Don Kelly | Tigers | 1% Owned

Kelly has shown a ton of power recently, hitting 3 homers in his past 46 at-bats. The Tigers are giving the 30 year-old lefty some playing time, and he may be able to make the most of it. He’s eligible at first base, and in the outfield as well, so he can give your club some versatility. There isn’t much upside here, but he’s worth a shot in AL-only leagues if Betemit is taken.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Josh Bell – Baltimore Orioles (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

The overall numbers are nothing special but since August 11, Bell has a .333 AVG with 2 HR and 6 RBIs in 10 games. While most of that damage came in just one game, the encouraging thing for Bell is the plate discipline he has showed recently. For the year, he has a 34.6 K% with the Orioles. But in his last 10 games he has 9 Ks in 33 ABs for a more manageable 27.3 K%. Bell should give you power potential with a solid AVG the rest of the way if he can keep the strikeouts under control.

Michael Brantley – Cleveland Indians (owned in 9 percent of Yahoo! leagues)

Another player whose overall numbers mask a recent stretch of productive play. Thanks to a .220 BABIP, Brantley carries a .212 AVG for the year. But in his last 12 games he has hit .327 with 12 R and 7 RBIs. Additionally, he has 2 HR and 2 SB in that stretch since being recalled from the minors. Brantley did sprain his ankle recently, but an MRI came back negative and he will not go on the disabled list.

Bobby Parnell – New York Mets (owned in 5 percent of Yahoo! leagues)

With Francisco Rodriguez done for the year, the closer spot is up for grabs in the Mets bullpen. So far, Hisanori Takahashi and Manny Acosta have notched saves in his absence. But Parnell is another option and could easily pick up a handful of saves the final six weeks of the season. Even if he does not get many saves, Parnell has the opportunity to help fantasy owners with a 9.36 K/9. Always a hard thrower, Parnell has been over 100 mph with his fastball recently. At 3.24, his ERA is higher than you would like from a setup guy as a fantasy player, but both his FIP (1.74) and xFIP (2.28) paint a different picture.

Sitting here on the empty floor of my new home in California, my future is cloudy. It seems like it’s time to make a run and living, and writing, in the best state in the union (apologies New York, but take away one city and you fall behind a bit). Why live if not while doing the thing you love in your favorite place? Oh, and it’s time to update the shortstop rankings since it’s been a while since we last visited that part of the diamond. That much I do know.

The Big Three:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.383 wOBA, .404 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
2. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.334 wOBA, .360 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.378 wOBA, .352 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

It really looks like it’s time to do this. Derek Jeter is on pace to break his own personal record in ground balls, isn’t stealing bases at the clip that he manages in his good years, and isn’t putting up the other-worldly BABIPs of recent years. At his age, he’s always a candidate to slow down, and suddenly it seems like this is the year. If he isn’t going to have the plus batting average, his poor home run and stolen base totals look a lot less exciting.

As wrong as we might have been for pushing Jeter into the top tier for his excellent start, we were as right about keeping Jose Reyes near the top despite his poor first month. After an excellent June, Reyes looks like the man he used to be, and when he bags an extra 25 steals or so over Jeter, he’ll overcome any other advantages the elder New York shortstop has on him.

Another move at the top brings a healthy Rollins into the fold. He’s been a top-3 guy for some time, but his main fault is always there: he’s a bit of a batting average risk year-in and year-out. If the legs are iffy this year, he’s a risk to drop still.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.338 wOBA, .353 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
5. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.333 wOBA, .331 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
6. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.359 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
7. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.386 wOBA, .368 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
8. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.334 wOBA, .338 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Other than Jeter moving down, this tier is fairly uneventful. Andrus looks good, and with his speed might be able to maintain some of his strong BABIP, but he has almost negative power. All those grass guzzlers won’t turn into home runs any time soon, no matter how fast he is. Zobrist is looking like a Jeter-lite, or maybe a young Jeter, but the runs totals aren’t quite there yet. Drew is having a tough year, beset with injuries and some struggles against lefties. Not quite the peak year breakout that seemed like it could be on the way. We’ll keep him around for his upside a little longer, but not a whole lot longer.

The Leftovers:
9. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.384 wOBA, .344 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
10. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.294 wOBA, .328 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
11. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles (.315 wOBA, .322 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta (.301 wOBA, .336 ZiPS wOBA)
13. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.328 wOBA, .348 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
14. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.307 wOBA, .332 ZiPS wOBA)
15. Ian Desmond, Washington (.291 wOBA, .319 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Alex Gonzalez, Toronto (.344 wOBA, .302 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

It’s time to drop Jason Bartlett from the list. He’s losing time to Reid Brignac versus righties, and even if his BABIP regresses and gets his batting average up closer to .280, he’s just not showing any power and has three stolen bases on the year. Not much to like there.

We keep looking for a reason to move Alcides Escobar back onto the list, but at least Ian Desmond is playing every day and providing a tiny bit of power and speed for his owners. Miguel Tejada, on the other hand, might be seeing his long run of consecutive starts come to an end if upstart prospect Josh Bell can show his stuff at the major league level. Baltimore is, of course, looking to the future, and Tejada won’t be a part of that future.

The Arizona Fall League is a developmental league for prospects that either A) Need a bit of fine-tuning before reaching the Majors, B) Need extra work after missing a chunk of the ‘09 season due to injury, and/or C) Are being considered for inclusion on the 40-man roster this winter.

Josh Bell, 3B, Baltimore
Obtained at mid-season from the Dodgers (in exchange for George Sherrill), Bell has proven to be a smart pick-up for the Orioles. The soon-to-be 23 year old posted an ISO of .281 after the trade, during 114 at-bats at double-A. Overall, he hit .297 on the season in double-A with 20 homers in 448 at-bats. He’s shown patience at the plate with two straight seasons with a +10% walk rate. So far in the AFL, he’s posting the second-highest batting average behind Florida’s Mike Stanton. Bell may need a little bit more seasoning in triple-A before taking over for long-time third baseman Melvin Mora, who is likely to depart Baltimore this winter via free agency.

Bryan Petersen, OF, Florida
A personal favorite of mine, Petersen had a 23/23 season in ’08 but followed that up in ’09 with reduction in both home runs (seven) and steals (13 in 25 attempts) in double-A. The 23 year old remains an intriguing outfield prospect, in part because he reduced his strikeout rate from more than 20% to 15.3%. He also does a nice job of getting on-base by hitting .280-.300 and he’s not afraid to take a walk (10.4%). He’s hitting .441 through seven AFL games, but he’s been caught the one time that he tried to steal. Petersen could surface in Florida by the end of ’10, especially if he can improve his base running.

Grant Desme, OF, Oakland
It’s easy to get excited about Desme’s season because the 23-year-old outfielder hit 31 homers in 486 at-bats, including a .352 ISO rate in 227 high-A at-bats. Two things work against him, though: A) He was old for low-A and old-ish for high-A, and B) He struck out more than 30% of the time. The ’09 season was the first year that he’s been healthy since signing back in ’07. Desme is currently leading the AFL in homers with seven (three more than the next closest hitter) and he’s hitting .436 despite striking out 13 times in 39 at-bats. We probably won’t see Desme in Oakland before 2011.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta
One of the youngest hitters in the league, Freeman is struggling in the AFL. He’s hitting just .174/.296/.217 in 23 at-bats. The first baseman also stumbled at double-A in the second half of the minor league season in ’09. After scorching high-A ball earlier in the year, he hit just .248/.308/.342 in 149 at-bats. Freeman hit just .164 in August. He just turned 20 in September so there is no reason to be worried. He should be in Atlanta by mid-to-late 2011.

Jemile Weeks, 2B, Oakland
The 22-year-old Weeks is in the AFL to make up for lost time after beginning the year on the disabled list. Upon his return, he was on fire for the first two months before slumping in July; he never really hit consistently after that. His struggles continue in the AFL with a line of .182/.250/.303 through 33 at-bats. Weeks, though, is showing some patience with three walks and he’s been successful in both of his steal attempts. Weeks may debut in Oakland around the same time as Desme… 2011.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. With the end to the minor league season less than a month away, many of the players we’re looking at now will be making their impacts in early-to-mid 2010. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Brian Bogusevic: Pitcher-to-hitter conversions have been pretty trending over the past few seasons and Bogusevic’s switch received a lot of attention last year. Things have quieted down in that regard in 2009, but the talented outfielder just keeps plugging along for Houston in triple-A. He currently has a line of .278/.354/.374, which is extremely encouraging considering that this is his first full season as a hitter. The biggest disappointment to this point has been his lack of power, something that was a strength of his in college. Currently, his ISO is just .098. However, he is hitting for a decent average, he’s stolen 18 bases in 21 tries and he’s taken his fair share of walks (10.2 BB%). Bogusevic, a left-handed hitter, does struggle against southpaws with an OPS of just .650. The 25-year-old has the potential to be a solid regular center fielder, but he probably won’t be a star.

Josh Bell: Entering the 2009 season, the Baltimore Orioles organization had a problem. Incumbent third baseman Melvin Mora was getting older and his numbers were beginning to slip. As the season now nears its end, nothing has changed in that regard. However, the club now has a replacement, something that was sorely lacking at the beginning of the season. Bell, 22, has responded to the trade by hitting .364/.442/.682 in 44 double-A at-bats with Baltimore. Overall, he’s hitting .304/.393/.519 with 15 homers and 32 doubles in 378 at-bats. Bell is also showing a solid approach at the plate with respectable strikeout and walk rates.

Michael Taylor: The Philadelphia organization is probably pretty happy with the way the trade deadline turned out. The club received veteran Cliff Lee in a trade and he’s been lights-out in the National League. The club also managed to hang on to most – if not all – its top prospects. One of those prospects – Taylor – has shown the potential to be an impact player at the MLB level once a spot opens up for him in the outfield. After hitting .333/.408/.569 in 318 double-A at-bats, Taylor moved up to triple-A where he is hitting .282/.359/.491 in 110 at-bats. Overall, he has 20 homers and 21 steals, as well as a strikeout rate below 20 K%, which is excellent for a hitter with 20-25 home run potential.

Lucas May: With some questions surrounding Russell Martin (especially concerning his lack of power), the incumbent No. 1 catcher in Los Angeles, the Dodgers organization may need to look for a replacement sooner rather than later. Having basically given catching prospect Carlos Santana away to the Indians (a terrible decision, even at the time), the club must hope that May can continue to build off of his 2009 season – a year in which the 24-year-old catcher repeated double-A with respectable results. The right-handed hitter is currently batting .281/.374/.427 with six homers in 199 at-bats. May was converted to catcher in 2007 and he’s still a little rough around the edges defensively, but he’s the best in-house option that the club has at double-A or triple-A.

Danny Dorn: Cincinnati outfield prospects like Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey get a lot of ink, but Dorn has quietly put together a respectable pro career. A former 32nd-round pick out of Cal State Fullerton in 2006 as a senior, the left-handed hitter slugged 20 or more home runs in both 2007 and 2008. His power numbers have been muted a bit in triple-A Louisville this season (His ISO is still .184), but Dorn still has the potential to provide some pop off of a big-league bench. A poor defensive player, Dorn could also be a valuable platoon player in the American League as a designated hitter. He has hit just .197/.239/.394 against southpaws in his career, but he has a line of .293/.358/.475 against right-handers.

Neil Walker: It’s hard to believe that Walker was once the pride of Pittsburgh. A native of Pennsylvania, the former catcher was drafted with the club’s first-round pick in 2004 out of an area high school. Things really began to go downhill for Walker when he was unable to stick at catcher and moved to third base, where he provides below-average offense for the position. He’s been unable to maintain a respectable average or show the patience at the plate necessary to succeed in triple-A, let alone the Majors. Currently, he’s hitting .256/.306/.472 with 12 homers in 309 at-bats. Still only 23, a change of scenery may be the best thing for this former top prospect.

Jose Vallejo: Rumored to be headed to Houston as part of the loot in the Pudge Rodriguez trade, this Rangers second base prospect is having an off season. After hitting .292 with 11 homers and 42 steals in 2008, Vallejo has slumped to .245/.290/.316 with just two homers and 10 stolen bases in 392 at-bats split between double-A and triple-A. Fortunately, he’s still just 22 years old and is a solid buy-low risk, especially for an organization that is attempting to rebuild its farm system from virtually nothing.