Archive for Jose Valverde

It was a slow day on the diamond with just five games on the schedule, so here are just a few bullpen notes to hold you over…

Jason Grilli’s early season ninth-inning heroics vaulted him to the number seven slot in the Bullpen Report’s “Updated Consensus Closer Ranks,” and this afternoon’s 14-pitch effort did nothing but solidify that ranking. The Pirates closer faced the minimum in the ninth and struck out the final two Cubbies to remain a perfect 19-for-19 in save chances this year. The two looking strikeouts — courtesy of Luis Valbuena and Welington Castillo — inflated the right-handers whiff rate to 41.4% on the year, which as of tonight, is a major league best. In addition to the fantastic strikeout rate, Grilli lowered his ERA and WHIP to 1.25 and 0.74 WHIP on the year respectively.

To be fair, Jason Grilli isn’t the only story coming out of the Pirates ‘pen these days. Twenty-eight-year-old Mark Melancon owns a 0.72 ERA, 0.80 WHIP a 27.4% K%, a 1.1% BB% and has notched a league-leading 16 holds in 25 trips to the hill. Yes, those numbers are real. Parlay those ratios and whiffs with a scab win here, a scab save there and you could have yourself a top 100 player. Melancon is owned in just 20% of Y! leagues, but at this point, he’ll be more than useful in all 12-team and deeper mixed formats.

Papa Grande shook hands for the fifth time this season as the Tigers closed out the Twins, 7-6. Valverde sat down the Twinkies in order — including two via the strikeout — to raise his strikeout rate to 25% on the season. In 11 appearance since rejoining the Tigers, Valverde is 4-of-4 in save chances with a 0.82 ERA and a 0.54 WHIP. Today’s save pushes Jose Valverde’s career save total up to 282, placing him 28th on the all-time career saves list and only behind Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan and Francisco Rodriguez among those still in the game. Watch out Mo, Jose is just 343 saves away!

There are seven middle relievers that have earned four or more holds in the past two weeks. Joel Peralta (6) notched the most of the bunch, while Trevor Rosenthal and David Robertson are the only two with a minimum of four holds and ten strikeouts. Four of the seven — Jesse Crain, Sean Doolittle, Jake McGee and Trevor Rosenthal — own a perfect 0.00 ERA. And what do you get when you add Rosenthal, McGee and Doolittle’s efforts together over that time? A 2-0 pitcher who sports a glistening 0.00 ERA and a 7.6 K/BB. Yes, that’s Chris Sale territory. Moral of the blurb? If the top 20 starting pitcher you’re looking to acquire continues to elude you, simply stack a few elite middle relievers and get close to the same result — if you have the roster spots.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

– Craig Kimbrel locked down his 9th save on 10 pitches tonight in a 3-2 Braves victory over the Nationals. The right-hander whiffed just one batter in the top of the ninth-inning resulting in a dip of his K% from 38.9% to 38.5% on the season. Oof. Kimbrel is now 9-of-10 in save opportunities with a 1.69 ERA (1.03 FIP) on the year. But the narrative shouldn’t just be about ninth-inning man here. Fredi Gonazlez summonsed both Jordan Walden and Eric O’Flaherty from the ‘pen prior to calling on the closer. Combined, Walden and O’Flaherty dished 2.2 clean innings while fanning five Nationals. Entering tonight, the Braves bullpen held a 2.18 ERA (2.84 FIP) in 70.1 IP. Not bad.

Read the rest of this entry »

-A lackluster start to the season by Detroit’s closer-by-committee situation lead the Tigers down a familiar path on Thursday. The American League Central favorites re-signed their former closer, Jose Valverde, to a minor league contract with the option to opt out by May 5th if he’s not called up to the Majors. The 35 year-old veteran is clearly not the long-term solution in Motown, but could serve as a band-aid until Phil Coke, Al Alburquerque or Joaquin Benoit decide to grab ahold of the ninth inning — or until Bruce Rondon is deemed ready for the role.

With the signing — and if he gets the call — Valverde would have the third most career saves among active, non-injured relievers. Entering today, Valverde’s 277 saves would place him behind only future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera (608) and Joe Nathan (298) among those expected to pitch in ‘13.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Just as I was about to press the “publish now” button on the Bullpen Report from last evening, John Axford decided to blow his second save of the season. The mustached one entered with a two-run lead, but surrendered a hit and two walks, resulting in two earned while whiffing just one to send the game into extras. Although this was only Axford’s second blown opportunity of the season, the Brewers’ closer has allowed six earned runs in his last four outings with five walks to just three punch outs. Looking further, Axford has actually increased his K/9 since 2011 — 10.51 to 12.93 batters per nine — but has allowed about double the free passes as he did last season (3.05 to 6.08 BB/9). Additionally, Axford has been a bit unlucky on average on balls in play (.361 versus .301 career) and is stranding less runners (62.2 LOB%) than his career (76.3%), which leads me to believe his 4.94 ERA is due for some improvement. Assuming there are no injury concerns, Axford needs to limit walks and reduce line drives if he wants to be the effective closer who recently held a 49-game consecutive save streak that ended May 11th. Should Axford continue to struggle, former closer Francisco Rodriguez is waiting in the first chair for the Brew Crew.

Read the rest of this entry »

•J.J. Putz was unavailable for Wednesday night’s game against the San Francisco Giants due to a stiff neck. The Diamondbacks’ closer received treatment prior to and during the early innings of last evening’s contest, but informed manager Kirk Gibson he wasn’t available when his neck didn’t loosen after trying to play catch in the fourth frame. David Hernandez came on in relief of Ian Kennedy with two outs in the eighth for the four-out save opportunity. Hernandez yielded two hits, but held the Giants scoreless to earn his first save of 2012.

In 24 appearances this season, Hernandez has been inducing swinging strikes at a career high 13.5% clip, which indicates his 12.52 K/9 (4.00 K/BB) looks to be real. In addition to the whiffs, solid ratios (1.93 ERA and 1.07 WHIP) make the Dbacks set-up man more than just a handcuff in deeper leagues.

Although Putz indicated he should be fine for Friday’s contest, Hernandez could get the call should there be any setback with his stiff neck.
Read the rest of this entry »

Round and round she goes; where she stops, nobody knows.  This closer carousel that keeps spinning around this season is starting to become downright unbearable.  They say never to pay a premium for saves on draft day because they’ll be abundant on your waiver wire, but this is ridiculous.  Now it’s getting to the point where you shouldn’t be spending so much of your FAAB dollars either because the shelf-life of a closer in 2012 is about a week.  Here’s a look at who’s getting the baton passed to them now… Read the rest of this entry »

According to MLB.com’s Jason Beck, free agent reliever Jose Valverde has come to terms with the Detroit Tigers on a two-year, $14 million contract, with a $9 million option for the 2012 season. Because Valverde is a Type A free agent, the Houston Astros will receive Detroit’s first-round pick (19th overall) in the 2010 amateur draft, as well as a supplemental first-round selection.

Papa Grande’s signing ends any notion of Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya or newly-acquired Daniel Schlereth closing out games for the Tigers.

Thirty-two in March, Valverde has a career 3.47 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (xFIP). Over the last three seasons, he has a 3.59 xFIP, with 10.26 strikeouts per nine innings and 3.31 BB/9. It’s worth noting that Valverde’s K rate has declined four years running, from 12.59 per nine frames in 2006 to 9.33 K/9 in 2009.

The former Diamondback and Astro made some changes to his approach over that time. Counter intuitively, Valverde’s punch out rate declined while his percentage of fastballs thrown decreased:

Valverde’s fastball percentage, 2006-2009

2006: 84.4%
2007: 77.8%
2008: 74.1%
2009: 69.4%

Valverde’s fastball velocity has trended up: 93.5 MPH in ’06, 93.4 in ’07, 95.5 in ’08 and a sizzling 95.8 in ’09.

The 6-4 right-hander has mixed in more mid-80’s splitters: 9.8% in 2006, 20% in 2007, 24.4% in 2008 and 26.9% this past year. Firing fastballs less often and relying more on the splitter, Valverde has tossed fewer pitches in the strike zone and has become more adept at garnering swings outside of the zone:

2006: 59.2 Zone%, 22.3 O-Swing%
2007: 55.4 Zone%, 24.4 O-Swing%
2008: 52.5 Zone%, 33 O-Swing%
2009: 52.3 Zone%, 32 O-Swing%

(The MLB average for Zone% has been between 49-52% from 2006-2009, while the average O-Swing% has been between 23-25%)

So, he’s throwing fewer fastballs and more splitters, while putting fewer pitches over the plate and getting more outside swings. Those trends might lead you to believe that he would induce more swings and misses, but that hasn’t been the case. The reason? Valverde’s blistering fastball actually has a higher whiff rate than his splitter.

Valverde’s four-seamer had a 15.2% whiff rate in 2008 and a 12.6 whiff% in 2009. For reference, the average for righty pitchers is about six percent. His splitter, by contrast, had a 13.3% whiff rate in ’08 and a 12.2% mark in ’09 (the MLB average is 12-13 percent). Both offerings get the job done, though. Since 2007, Valverde’s fastball (+0.88 runs/100 pitches) and split (+0.79) have been similarly effective on a per-pitch basis.

CHONE has Valverde compiling a 3.87 FIP in 2010, with 8.37 K/9 and 3.47 BB/9 in 57 innings pitched. That comes out to about 0.7 Wins Above Replacement, the same total that Valverde posted in 2009.

A win is thought to cost roughly $4.5 million on the free agent market. The Tigers figure to get 1.5 to 2 wins out of Valverde’s two guaranteed years, meaning the club is paying something like $7 to 9+ million per win. Of course, you also have to consider the cost of losing a first-round pick (about $6.5 million, according to Victor Wang’s research). With the lost draft pick factored in, Detroit may be shelling out between $10+ million to $13+ million per win. If you think that’s a good deal, then I have beachfront property in Pittsburgh to sell you.

For fantasy purposes, Valverde is a good second-tier option. He’s not in the same class as the Riveras, Nathans and Sorias of the world, but if your investment in Papa Grande is more moderate than Detroit’s, you won’t get buyer’s remorse.

According to Peter Gammons of ESPN, the Houston Astros have acquired reliever Matt Lindstrom from the Florida Marlins.

After Kevin Gregg was dealt to the Cubs last year, Lindstrom started the 2009 season as the Marlins closer. In 54 games with the Marlins last season, Lindstrom recorded 15 saves in 17 chances. He posted a 5.89 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts in 47.1 innings. Lindstrom missed 38 days from late June to early August after suffering a right elbow strain.

After going on the disabled list, Lindstrom returned to the Marlins only to find Leo Nunez occupying the closers role. Lindstrom only had one save opportunity in August and September, and he converted it. Seeing that Nunez was good enough to close for them and Lindstrom was eligible for arbitration, the Marlins made the decision to deal him to save some money.

Lindstrom is one of those guys I have always liked, even though the numbers tell me I shouldn’t. It must be his sexy fastball, which clocks in at an average 96.6 MPH. Lindstrom also throws a slider, and a rare splitter.

In Houston, Lindstrom looks to be the closer, as of now. The Astros have expressed interest in bringing back Jose Valverde, but if they have another closer option that scenario looks less likely. If Lindstrom gets the first shot at closing and runs with it, expect 25+ saves with an ERA over 4.30. and a WHIP close to 1.50. These numbers aren’t spectacular, but Lindstrom provides solid strikeouts (7.42 K/9 last year), so he is ownable as a lower tier closer.

In Florida, Nunez seems to have the hold on the closers job going into next season. He saved 26 games in 33 chances, striking out 60 batters in 68.2 innings in 2009. He is a lower tier closer like Lindstrom, but I would rather have Nunez on my fantasy squad than Lindstrom.