Archive for Jose Ramirez

I recently wrote about Statcast measures that were highly correlated with power metrics, such as HR/FB and ISO. The research confirmed that several Statcast measures could be useful tools for identifying undervaled power sources. One factor I ignored in that analysis was pull rate, but in taking a belated look at it, I found that one of the apparently strong relationships gets notably weaker when we control for a hitter’s pull tendencies.

In general, exit velocity on flyballs and line drives turned out to be strongly correlated with ISO for hitters with at least 150 batted ball events in 2018. However, when you isolate the top 10 percent of the sample in terms of pull rate, the relationship is still meaningful, but it’s not quite as strong. That could have implications for how we view two of last season’s top power hitters, Jose Ramirez and Alex Bregman.
Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve written about Jose Ramirez a couple of times since the tailend of last year, and there were a lot of notable things that I enjoyed about his game. There’s something fun about a high contact guy who runs the bases well, which is primarily what many, including myself, expected Ramirez to continue to be. With mixed results prior to 2016, many also wondered if we should expect legitimate production from the Cleveland third sacker heading into a new campaign. But not only has Jose Ramirez continued to perform at a high level, but as Eno Sarris noted at the beginning of May, he’s changed our perception of him as well, with his increased launch angle contributing in a variety of ways.

Ramirez did a lot in 2016 that kind of led us to believe that we knew what to expect from him heading into this 2017 season, assuming that he continued to perform at a level that was consistent with what he turned in last year. His final numbers at the end of the year featured the following:

That’s obviously an extraordinarily small picture of his 2016, but even so, there’s still a lot to like about that. Despite having one of the lowest walk rates among qualifying third basemen, he posted the highest contact rate among that same group. Even if the contact wasn’t particularly hard, his ability to run the bases (6.9 UBR led the position) helped to contribute to that .363 on-base clip, as well as the 22 swipes he posted.

High-contact, high-OBP, and some speed on the bases. Even if he didn’t stack up against the elite at the hot corner, there’s still value in a skill set like that. When you factor in the versatility that he brought to the mix last year, something that isn’t quite as prevalent this season, you can understand why he was an intriguing option heading into the new season.

All Ramirez has done is take that intrigue and turn it into more legitimacy than anyone could have expected:

He’s still reaching base a high rate, while maintaining a similar approach in terms of Swing%. The contact rate is still there and even if the strikeout rate is up a touch, the walk rate has come with it. One additional note is that his park-adjusted offense, by virtue of wRC+, has increased from 122 to 129. What’s particularly interesting there is that ISO. A 53 point rise in ISO is pretty significant, with Ramirez already four shy of the 11 homers he hit last year and one short of his triple total from 2016. This was an element that Eno focused on in the piece linked above, with launch angle playing a heavy role in the evolution of Jose Ramirez in 2017.

The ball is definitely finding its way into the air more often. Combine the increased hard hit rate with the increase in balls in the air, and the ISO is easily explainable. It’s also probably important to note that the increase in power is primarily taking place when Ramirez is swinging lefty, where he has an ISO of .252, against a .119 mark from the right-handed batter’s box. Last year, the trend was opposite, with his higher ISO coming against left-handed pitching in 2016. Nonetheless, the results this year make this heatmap into not much of a surprise:

Another thing that this graph contributes to is Ramirez’s decrease in Oppo%. His percentage of contact to the opposite field against right-handed pitching is just 20.0% this season, as opposed to the 30.4% mark that he posted last year. Interestingly enough, his Oppo% against left-handed pitching has actually increased about three percent, currently sitting at 26.3%.

Is it possible that Ramirez is a different hitter depending on the batter’s box in which he stands?

Not necessarily. The power is coming from the left-handed box. That’s the largest difference. But he’s still making really strong contact that shows improvement from last year, with his Hard% against left-handed pitching showing an increase of almost 10%. The evolution of Ramirez from 2016 to 2017 is really one that has taken place across the board, regardless of his handedness in a particular plate appearance.

Ramirez has remained the steady on-base presence that he was last year. He’s still swinging at a decent rate while making high contact. What he’s doing differently this year is making harder contact and generating far more balls in the air. With that combination, he’s finding his way into the ISO column more often. He’s gone from a high-contact, speed type to a high-contact, speed type with legitimate power at the plate.

Given that this is a change that has only been in development for really the first two months of the season, though, it’ll be interesting to see how it continues to evolve as the season wears on. Expect us to revisit Ramirez, his power, and his splits before the season comes to a close.

As we begin to approach the 2017 season, one of the larger wild cards at the third base position is Cleveland Indians third sacker Jose Ramirez. While Ramirez is coming off of a remarkable season that saw him excel in a variety of offensive aspects, there isn’t a tremendous basis for it at the Major League level. Should we expect that 2016 will become more of the norm than his previous big league stints, or is a regression in the cards for one of the breakout stars of last season?

Prior to 2016, Ramirez spent a good chunk of time at the Major League level in both 2014 and 2015, with plate appearance totals of 266 and 355, respectively. Neither appearance saw him justify consistent big league time, especially in a 2015 season where he hit only .219 and reached base at a paltry .291 clip. Of course, his .232 batting average on balls in play didn’t exactly help, but his park-adjusted offense still came in 27 points below league average.

The 2016 season represented an entirely different situation for Ramirez. His line featured marks of .312/.363/.462/.825. That batting average was tops among qualifying third basemen, while his OBP ranked fifth among that group. After a season in which he posted a wRC+ of 73, he was able to bring that figure all the way up to 122, which ranked 10th among that same group. While he’s not a tremendous power threat, he demonstrated an ability to consistently reach base while making things happen on the basepaths, where he recorded 22 steals on the season.

So what exactly should we be expecting from Ramirez moving forward?

Read the rest of this entry »

Regardless of the events that transpire on Wednesday night in Cleveland, the evening will conclude with a 2016 Champion of Major League Baseball being crowned. The elation that one club and its fans will experience with an extensive drought ending will only be matched in its intensity by the devastation felt by the club and the fans on the other side at seeing their own drought continue. As such, I would be remiss if I didn’t touch on and reflect on the third base matchup that the evening will entail.

Game 7 will feature the overwhelming favorite for the National League Most Valuable Player award in Kris Bryant, while his counterpart, Jose Ramirez, has ridden a breakout regular season to a key role on this gritty Cleveland squad. Bryant represents the best of the best at the hot corner. He’s a member of the elite. Ramirez was mired in an obscure role until Michael Brantley’s injury allowed him an opportunity to crack the everyday lineup. He’s seized that opportunity by utilizing his high contact and baserunning abilities, as well as some clutch play.

While the overall skill set and season statistics obviously favor Bryant, in glaringly obvious fashion, it’ll certainly be interesting to see how each performs at the most strenuous point of the game’s brightest stage. Across a nine inning game, we’re talking about the most minuscule of sample sizes. But it’s still worth wondering what challenges each could present for his opponent, particularly in regard to their ability to make contact, their ability to make strong contact, and the threat that they represent on the bases.

Here’s a broader overview of their regular season performances.

In some regards, they’re not quite as far apart as one might initially think. Both are able to reach base at a really nice clip, but what Ramirez has going for him is his ability to get on base and utilize that speed, while striking out a at a far lower rate. Whereas Bryant represents the significantly more impactful bat in the power game. Ramirez embodies that scrappy type of play that has become the Cleveland narrative. As such, he won’t be an easy out at any point for Kyle Hendricks, especially with his success against the changeup. It’ll be interesting to watch Bryant against Corey Kluber for a third time as well, with Bryant having found his groove at the plate over the last pair of games.

In terms of the ability and type of contact we’ve seen from both, refer to the graph below:

Ramirez has been one of the higher contact guys throughout the season. He’s been aggressive in his approach, and he’s been able to utilize that speed effectively in notching a few extra hits because of it. Bryant may strike out more regularly, but his contact rate is also significantly improved from 2015 and his contact ends up being far harder and, subsequently farther, than that of Ramirez. If what we’ve seen thus far in the series is any indication, Ramirez will use that high contact and baserunning ability to be a thorn in the side of Chicago, and if there’s a big time hit to be made on the part of the Cubs, it could very likely come off the bat of Bryant.

It should be relatively well known at this point what each can do on the bases, as the pair rank 1-2 in BsR. Ramirez sports an 8.8 mark, while Bryant comes in not far behind, at 7.3. Ramirez is a legitimate threat to go, with 22 swipes on the season. This could prompt the Cubs to go with David Ross in order to try and slow he and the other Cleveland runners to an extent. While Bryant isn’t as active in the run game, with only eight steals, he’s still a capable baserunner who has been lauded for his intelligence on the basepaths.

As one-sided as it may seem based off of name recognition alone, it’s still a fun matchup that we’ve been able to watch at the hot corner. You have two players in the top eight in WAR at their position, with both bringing different skill sets to the table. While Bryant obviously represents the higher quality player in a variety of ways, the ways in which both could find a way to impact Game 7 in Cleveland on Wednesday night are countless. Bryant with the big power bat, Ramirez with the high contact ability. With perhaps only nine innings remaining in the 2016 Major League year, this will be one fun matchup in a multitude of things to watch in Wednesday’s final tilt.

We’ll get back into reviewing some of the performances at the hot corner next week. With the World Series currently underway, and myself having explored Kris Bryant extensively this season (and recently profiling Javier Baez), it’s the perfect opportunity to look at Jose Ramirez for the first time in a couple of months. While fans in Cleveland have become well aware of what he has brought to the table with a breakout 2016 campaign, the rest of the nation has really experienced their first exposure to Ramirez throughout this postseason. Not only has he broken out, but the numbers paint him as one of the more clutch players in baseball.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Cleveland Indians have been among the best teams in baseball for the bulk of the year, which may or may not come as a surprise, depending on who you talk to. One of the more fascinating elements of their ballclub has been the recent emergence of Jose Ramirez. A team starved for offensive talent coming into the year has seen Ramirez serve as a catalyst in recent weeks, as they continue to separate themselves from the rest of the pack in the American League Central.

The total body of work paints a solid picture for the Indians’ third sacker, although not necessarily one that screams elite-level performance. He’s slashed .305/.359/.453/.812 for the year, with a 118 wRC+. He’s struck out less than 12% of the time and walks at a decent enough 7.3% clip. The power hasn’t necessarily been a large component of his game, with a .148 ISO that would rank him 20th among 24 qualifying third basemen. Speed is an element of his game that not many third basemen carry with them, as his 20 swipes rank second at the position. He’s certainly been an above average offensive player, in terms of his ability to reach and make things happen out on the basepaths, even if he doesn’t have the power stroke of some of his MLB counterparts.

It’s what he’s done in the past month, though, for a strong American League contender, that really makes him significant among a crowded 3B group.

Read the rest of this entry »

Back in March, I made some bold predictions, as all RotoGraphs staff do. Some bold predictions I make simply for the sake of being bold. Or for the sake of making a prediction. One of the two. But I don’t have a vested interest in my predictions, mostly because (1) they typically suck and (2) I don’t own many, if any, shares of the subjects of my predictions (because, well, the predictions suck). It’s kind of like not putting your money where your mouth is.

In this case, I absolutely have a vested interest in Jose Ramirez. Chris Mitchell and I both hold a special place in our hearts for him. I’ve come to realize, in my years of watching and loving baseball, that I most appreciate the hitters who are (debatably) underappreciated contact hitters. Victor Martinez. Pre-breakout Daniel Murphy. Nick Markakis. Martin Prado. Reggie Willits???

Speaking of Prado, Ramirez looks like peak Prado right now, and in more ways than one:

Read the rest of this entry »

I used 10% Yahoo ownership as the cutoff for these selections. With these players available in nearly all leagues, boosting your middle-infield production isn’t as dire a situation as it may seem.

Derek Dietrich (9% owned) – With Dee Gordon suspended through July, Dietrich’s got a stranglehold on the second-base job in Miami for the next two months. For the most part, he’s been batting leadoff, although he’s hit in the No. 3 spot for the last two days, to accommodate a red-hot Ichiro Suzuki in the leadoff spot. Regardless, he’s hitting in the top third of the lineup, with a .293/.400/.485 slash.

The 26-year-old’s home-run power hasn’t shown up yet this year — with just two in 120 PA — but he’s got seven doubles and three triples. Don’t be fooled by that paltry ‘2’ in the HR column, because Dietrich has plenty of pop to get the ball over the fence. While his .355 BABIP suggests likely regression in his AVG, those of you in OBP leagues can reap the benefits of his 10.0% walk rate — and the fact that he’s strangely adept at being hit by pitches.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday inaugurated what will likely several weeks of depth chart discussions in the form of playing time battles. RotoGraphs staff will discuss and assess noteworthy battles for playing time and/or starting gigs for position players and, separately, pitchers. Here, specifically, this author will investigate the Cleveland Indians‘ position player situations.

Third Base

As these keystrokes hit digital paper, FanGraphs and MLB.com list Giovanny Urshela as Cleveland’s primary third baseman. Outside of Rajai Davis, he projects to produce the least amount of value relative to his position; in absolute terms, second-least by a hair.

You would think the Indians have a better in-house solution, even if it’s merely a less-pathetic one. Lonnie Chisenhall, former third baseman of the future, looks to make playing right field a mostly full-time gig, with occasional spells from Colin Cowgill and others. This complicates things.

Read the rest of this entry »

Each weekend I take the ZiPS rest-of-season projections and run them through the Zach Sanders z-score method and then see how players I have rostered compare to players available on the waiver wire. Being that I’m tasked with discussing shortstops here on Mondays, I thought I’d analyze two decisions I had to make this week involving shortstops. Read the rest of this entry »