Archive for Jorge de la Rosa

All 30 teams are in action this evening as interleague play wraps up. How about some links?

MVN’s MLBOutsider takes a closer look at the Nationals’ Jordan Zimmermann, who has a 1.99 ERA and 22/6 K/BB ratio over his past four starts. He obviously doesn’t carry much win potential, but he’s been missing a lot of bats (8.9 K/9) without a great dip in control (2.6 BB/9). Mixed leaguers starving for strikeouts might as well give him a try. He is owned in just 13 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Alex Geshwind of FantasyBullpen.com lists his “second half starting pitching targets,” calling Francisco Liriano the “ultimate risk reward” and Randy Johnson a “decent buy low candidate.” Geshwind also takes note of Jorge De La Rosa’s 9.8 K/9 and 3.46 BABIP.

RotoRob’s “Daily Dump” is the Orioles’ Luke Scott, who is stuck in a 3-for-22 rut and has a .699 OPS in the month of June. He’s shown a good display of power this season (14 home runs in 184 at-bats) and has at times murdered left-handed pitching, but he’s not helping mixed leaguers.

Knox Bardeen of AOL Fanhouse advises us to stay away from the “Homer Train.” He, of course, is referring to the Reds’ Homer Bailey, who will be called on to start Saturday against the Indians. The 23-year-old is 4-0 with a 0.47 ERA and 38/7 K/BB ratio in his last five starts for Triple-A Louisville, but he’s had trouble parlaying any kind of success into the major leagues during the course of his career. There’s some hope that this time will be different, due in large part to a new split-finger fastball.

Brad Berreman of MVN’s MLBOutsider has a look at the Marlins’ bullpen situation. With Matt Lindstrom hitting the disabled list, the Fish have said they intend to use a closer-by-committee strategy. That doesn’t always last. Perhaps Leo Nunez or Dan Meyer will emerge as the club’s official ninth-inning hurler.

Rotoworld’s Mark St. Amant presents his “Risers” and “Fallers.” He even gives a little credit to David Ortiz, who is putting together a nice June after opening the season in a massive slump.

Have a link, question or comment? I’m all ears. Shoot me an e-mail or come join me on Twitter.

Stock Up

Jorge de la Rosa, Rockies

de la Rosa sure has played roster hot-potato for a lefty cooking in the low-90’s, having been a part of four trades while seeing time in the Arizona, Boston, Milwaukee, Kansas City and Colorado systems. The 28 year-old, as covered in great detail by Eno Sarris, has kicked off the 2009 season with a 2.99 FIP, 9.49 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9 in 42.2 innings. de la Rosa has been fortunate in the home run department (0.42 HR/9, 4.9 HR/FB%), but his XFIP (based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR rate) still checks in at a tidy 3.70. If de la Rosa can keep the walks at a moderate rate, he could be an asset in most any league.

Joe Mauer, Twins

I know- Mauer has long been a fantasy darling, as a line-drive hitting backstop with excellent control of the zone. But the 26 year-old’s power outburst to begin the ’09 season bears mentioning: he’s already popped 6 out of the park in 73 plate appearances (this after hitting a combined 16 dingers in over 1,100 PA’s during the 2007 and 2008 seasons). Don’t expect him to suddenly go all Mike Piazza on the league, but Mauer would only add to his immense value if he could loft 20 big flys in addition to his high-contact, patient act at the dish.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies

Ubaldo has done a better job of limiting the base on balls in recent starts, with 22 K’s, 6 walks and 6 runs allowed in 27 frames during the month of May. Like de la Rosa, Jimenez has had some good luck on flyballs (0.20 HR/9, 2.4 HR/FB%), but his XFIP is a decent 4.43 despite a disastrous April (16 runs, 19/17 K/BB in 19 IP). The combination of whiffs (8.02 K/9) and worm-burners (50 GB%) makes the 25 year-old Dominican Republic native an intriguing trade target.

Jayson Werth, Phillies

The whole “is player X overrated/underrated” debate is obviously subjective, but Werth has to place among the more underappreciated talents in the game. How many people realize just how valuable this rangy, 6-2, 225 pounder has been for the Phillies since 2007? A 3.4 Win player in partial playing time in ’07, Werth posted a 5.3 WAR season for the Phillies in 2008 (tied with Jimmy Rollins for 2nd in a star-studded lineup), and he’s produced 1.4 wins already in 2009. With a .415 wOBA (.294/.396/.540) and 8 steals in 9 attempts, Werth is producing in every facet of the game. He’s even making a little more contact (23.8 K%, 29.9 career average), while raking against righties (.849 OPS) in addition to his usual lefty lashing (1.142 OPS).

Rick Porcello, Tigers

Porcello has gone from Seton Hall Prep to viable major league starter in less than two seasons, as the 20 year-old sinkerballer has allowed 2 runs in 18 innings during the month of May. Porcello isn’t blowing batters away (5.67 K/9), but he’s stingy with the free passes (2.95 BB/9) and generates grounders (53.6 GB%) with the sinker, a mid-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup. Porcello is doing a better job of throwing his three quality offerings (particularly his curveball) from the same arm-slot. Check out his release point chart against the Yankees, in a 3.2 inning, 6 run drubbing on April 29th…

…and his release point in a 6-inning, 1 run gem against the A’s on May 16th…

Stock Down

Alexei Ramirez, White Sox

There has been a general malaise over the South Side bats in 2009 (the Pale Hose rank 26th in wOBA), and Ramirez is one of the main culprits. Ramirez has been slightly more “patient” in ’09 ( we’re speaking in incredibly relative terms here: 5.6 BB%, 37.2 Outside Swing Percentage in 2009 compared to 3.6 BB% and a 42.7 O-Swing% in ’08), but the “Cuban Missile” has failed to launch, with a sickly .243 wOBA. His BABIP sits at a very low .238, so some positive regression should be expected. Still, his .051 ISO is downright Bloomquistian. This is what you sign up for if you gamble on a batting average-dependent player: when those hits don’t fall in, that player’s value craters.

Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals

Just when it looked like Wellemeyer might establish himself as a competent mid-rotation cog (4.51 FIP in 2008), he has gone and reminded everyone why he’s a former Cub, Marlin and Royal. His K rate has dipped from 6.29 per nine in ’08 to 5.28 in ’09, with his BB/9 inflating from 2.91 to 4.11. Wellemeyer’s go-to secondary offering last year was a mid-80’s slider (thrown 23.6% of the time), but his slider usage is down this season (12.9%), as is its velocity (83.1 MPH). In place of the hard breaker, the 30 year-old has mixed in a few high-80’s cutters and some high-70’s curves. The kitchen sink approach does not appear to be working.

Josh Fields, White Sox

The former first-rounder out of Oklahoma State has been a wreck at the plate this season, whiffing 32.8 percent of the time while making Scott Podsednik look like a power hitter (.096 ISO). That’s quite the fall for a guy who authored a .236 ISO during the 2007 season. At 26 years old and coming off a mundane season spent at AAA Charlotte in 2008 (.347 wOBA, .772 OPS), Fields isn’t such a highly-regarded youngster than he can continue to post oh-fer’s and stay in the lineup. He’s not on the Drew Henson path of doom quite yet, but he might want to take a few snaps in between BP sessions.

Armando Galarraga, Tigers

As a free-talent pickup from Texas, Galarraga was a pleasant surprise for the Tigers in 2008 while many other Detroit hurlers crashed and burned. A good deal of regression should have been expected this season (Galarraga’s 3.73 ERA far surpassed his 4.88 FIP), but we weren’t quite anticipating this kind of spontaneous combustion. While Verlander, Jackson and Porcello deal, 2008’s nominal ace has a 5.62 FIP and a walk rate closing in on five batters per nine innings. His last outing on May 17th was a 0.2 inning, 5-run disaster against the light-hitting A’s.

Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres

The Crushin’ Russian has not lived up to his nickname so far in 2009. Kouzmanoff’s Isolated Power figure comes in at just .101, continuing a three-year downward trend: his ISO was .182 in 2007 (his first full season in the big leagues) and .173 in 2008. The 28 year-old’s wOBA’s have dipped from .339 in ’07, .316 in ’08 and just .284 in 2009. The Padres are giving some thought to putting Chase Headley back at the hot corner, to make room for mammoth 6-6, 275 pound prospect Kyle Blanks in left field (it’s a stretch, but he’s more athletic than you might think). Kouzmanoff will need to show something in the coming weeks if he hopes to avoid being usurped.

A question in the mailbag from L. S. this week ended simply: Is Jorge De La Rosa for real?

His 2.99 FIP seems to suggest that his good start is for real, but ZiPS has him putting up a 4.71 ERA for the rest of the season. Perhaps this is a nod to his 5.32 career ERA. Many projection systems have trouble with breakout seasons, however, and there’s ample evidence that we are actually witnessing just such a step forward from a talented pitcher that could be peaking in his 27th year on the planet.

For one, the ‘luck’ numbers do not point definitively towards an unsustainable start to the year. His 69.1% strand rate is close to the league average as well as his own average (67.7%). His BABIP is .298, and while that is lower than his career .325 number, it doesn’t scream luck, especially given the small sample size.

Sure, this sample size also could be skewing his strikeout and walk rates, but for now they are both (9.49 K/9; 3.38 BB/9) right near the rates he put up in 130 innings of 4.06 FIP baseball last year (8.86 K/9, 4.29 BB/9). If the trend holds steady, the rates also show a natural progression that is encouraging. His strikeout rate has improved for three straight years, and his walk rate is at its lowest in his career. That’s good work if it proves to be true.

The only ‘luck’ worries come from his fly ball numbers. He’s sporting a 26.8% infield fly rate, and as those balls turn into long fly balls, his 4.9% HR/FB number should rise up to his 10.3% rate. The surprising thing is that with such a great HR/9 number (0.42), De La Rosa can actually continue to be productive – even if he doubles his home runs per nine as his career number suggest he will.

Why all the optimism? What’s changed? In short, this young Rockies pitcher has changed his entire approach to pitching over the past years.

Take a look at his pitch selection, and the difference between now and his first extended burn in 2007 is stark. When he came into the league, De La Rosa was throwing his 92-93 MPH fastball 62.3% of the time, and his 83 MPH slider 1.7% of the time. This year, he’s throwing those two pitches 56.1% and 23.3% of the time, respectively. He’s also cut his use of his 75 MPH curveball in half, from 13.1% to 6.5% this year.

A peek at his most recent pitch F/X game graph gives us some insight into this changed usage pattern. Take a look at his release points.

Despite a consistent release point for most of his pitches, De La Rosa lets his curve ball go at a distinctly higher point than his other pitches. This could lead to batters identifying the pitch early and laying off.

Now take a look at the movement of his pitches.

Given that the curve ball has the most horizontal and vertical movement of any of his pitches, it also follows that the curve ends up being called a ball many times, especially if batters are noticing the different release point and watching it into the catcher’s glove. It also makes sense that his most effective three pitches might be the three that release at the same spot and break as differently as his fastball, changeup and slider do.

Could it be that his reduced walk rate can be attributed to his reduced use of the curveball? Correlation is of course not causation, so it’s hard to say without knowing the strike percentage of each of his pitches. But De La Rosa is a changed pitcher – that much seems clear. And that counts as a good thing.

For a southpaw with plus velocity who won’t turn 28 until April, Rockies hurler Jorge de la Rosa has experienced quite the nomadic career. Originally signed out of Mexico by the Arizona Diamondbacks all the way back in 1998, de la Rosa has since passed through Boston, Milwaukee, Kansas City and Colorado, and has been involved in four trades. Within one week in the fall of 2003, de la Rosa was shipped from Boston back to Arizona in the Curt Schilling trade, only to be sent packing to the Brewers in the 9-player Richie Sexson swap. Jorge was part of a July 2006 deal that sent him to Kansas City for Tony Graffanino, and was bartered yet again in April of ’08, this time heading to the inhospitable environs of Coors Field.

The main culprit for the 6-1, 210 pounder’s game of roster hot-potato has been his control. Despite pumping gas in the low 90’s and complementing the heat with three other offerings, de la Rosa has walked nearly five batters per nine innings (4.92 BB/9) in the big leagues, a continuation of his work in the minors (3.64 BB/9). de la Rosa’s strike zone issues have left him fighting to stay in one place for more than a season or two, as he has compiled a career 4.86 FIP.

2008, however, brought with it legitimate progress. de la Rosa made 23 starts and tossed 130 innings both in ’07 with the Royals and ’08 with the Rockies, and the results this past season were far more promising. The Monterrey native posted mild peripherals with Kansas City, with 5.68 K/9, 3.67 BB/9 and a 5.27 FIP. In 2008, de la Rosa upped his strikeout rate considerably, punching out 8.86 batters per nine innings. His control still came and went (4.29 BB/9), but the end result was a sturdy-looking 4.06 FIP.

de la Rosa added a tick to his fastball this past year, throwing his heat at an average of 92.8 MPH (91.4 MPH in ’07). In addition, he started throwing his slider a good deal more, using the 84 MPH breaker 16.1% of the time in ’08 after snapping off a slide-piece just 6.4% in 2007. Armed with a solid fastball, a sharp slider, a slow 73 MPH curve (9.3%) and an 83.5 MPH changeup (18%), Jorge improved his Outside-Swing and Contact rates considerably.

After garnering an O-Swing% of just 20.3% with the Royals in 2007, de la Rosa got batters to fish out of the strike zone 25.6% with Colorado in ’08, slightly above the major league average. To boot, his Contact% fell from 82.1% in ’07 down to 76.4% in ’08. That was the 10th-lowest contact rate among pitchers tossing at least 130 frames, sandwiched between A.J. Burnett and Jake Peavy.

Burned by the home run in the past, de la Rosa modestly upped his groundball percentage from 40.6% to 45.7% this past season. The extra worm-burners, coupled with the K’s, were enough to qualify de la Rosa for Rich Lederer’s list of starters posting the best combination of groundball and strikeout rates over at The Baseball Analysts. Not surprisingly, the group of starters keeping the ball on the ground and missing bats were the most successful of the four types of pitchers studied (high K and GB rates, high K and low GB rates, low K and high GB rates and low K and low GB rates). Said Lederer:

“I am intrigued by de la Rosa, who was 5-2 with a 2.45 ERA and compelling peripheral stats in August and September, a period covering 11 games and nine starts (including five at Coors Field) and 58.2 innings.”

With the health status of Jeff Francis (shoulder) very much in doubt, de la Rosa figures to capture one of Colorado’s rotation spots. Keep a close eye on Jorge this spring- he could finally make good on the promise he has only hinted at to this point in his career.