Archive for Jorge Cantu

For those of you past your trade deadline, the waiver wire is increasingly important. At this point in the season, it’s also probably time to start thinking about particular statistics. A targeted push will make much more of a difference than an attempt to find across-the-board boosts. In that effort, here are some (slightly) one-dimensional players that should be interesting in the final weeks.

Peter Bourjos, Angels (1% owned)
It’s obvious that some people on the front of the site have a little mancrush on Bourjos. It’s irrational, but so are some aspects of Bourjos’ game. In a mere 17 games, he’s already accrued 5.2 UZR (a redonkulous 96.9 UZR/150 which leads the universe I’m pretty sure without checking). Also, Bourjos currently has an 8.6 four-factor speed score, which would lead baseball if he qualified. On the basis of those two aspects alone, he’ll have a pace in baseball… and a long leash. Long leashes are important when you are sporting a .202 BABIP on a team that doesn’t seem to care too much about advanced statistics. In particular, Bourjos is still playing every day because his glove is required, and he even strung together five hits in his last 18 at-bats, so deeper league stewards seeking stolen bases should select this speedster straight away. (Suffering succotash.)

Mitch Moreland, Rangers (1% owned)
It’s not terrible to be in a platoon if you’re the left-hander and are getting the bulk of the at-bats against right-handers, and that’s where Moreland finds himself. Moreland is also probably scraping the upper levels of his upside right now. A high BABIP (.359) is floating his batting average a little bit, but his walk rate (13.2%), strikeout rate (27.6%) and ISO (.190) are all in line with what might be expected from a man with his minor league walk rate (10%), strikeout rate (15.9%) and ISO (.196). In fact, as that BABIP regresses to the mean, he may actually strike out a little less often and keep his overall line looking very similar. Call him the anti-Chris Davis because he probably won’t put up the same strikeout and power totals as the former first sacker, but that doesn’t sound like denigration after all the troubles Davis went through. Jorge Cantu can’t quite cut it any more at first base with a .138 ISO and a poor walk rate, so this might just morph into a situation where Moreland starts and Cantu is a multi-position backup. With the injury concerns on a team that seems like a lock for the postseason, Moreland looks like he might get playing time either way.

Once again it’s time for the companion piece to the rankings post from Thursdays. We broke down the first basemen this week, and it seemed that the position was deep, with players like Billy Butler, ranked fourteenth on our list, still capable of putting up .280/30/100 years. There’s a lot of value to be found after the top first basemen are off the board.

But are there great options once the first 15 first basemen are gone? There’s definitely a steep increase in risk. Zach Sanders did a good job breaking down the risk versus reward for Chris Davis this week, and Davis’ power potential is definitely worth the lower draft cost in 2010. Russell Branyan offers a similar power upside, but with his career strikeout rate at almost 40% (38.9% career) he’s actually even riskier in the batting average department. It is worth noting that he’s significantly improved his strikeout rate in the past two years (31.8% and 34.6% in 2008 and 2009 respectively), and if he holds on to that improvement, he could repeat his numbers from 2009.

Once you pass the whiff-or-bomb section of the rankings, it starts to look meager. People will be tempted to take James Loney earlier than they should, but he is a player that embodies the fallacy that all young players get better. Almost 1800 plate appearances into his career, though, we know what Loney is. He’s a line-drive-hitting (21.4% career) worm-burner (43.4% ground ball, 35.3% fly ball career) with below-average power (9% HR/FB career). Unless he gets lucky and has his career year, there’s no reason to think that Loney will do any better than hit .280+ with 15 or so home runs, and there are plenty of players that can do that and cost less in the draft.

Consider that you can probably get Lyle Overbay many rounds later, and Overbay is just as likely to hit .270 with 16 or so home runs. Don’t overpay for the ten points of batting average in this case, especially since Overbay’s declining batting average is actually easily managed – it is the result of declining splits. While Overbay used to be okay against lefties (.711 OPS career) he’s been terrible the last couple of years (.534 and .540 OPS versus southpaws the last two years). If you can manage Overbay daily, you can take advantage of his good split against right-handers (.847 OPS career) which was still strong the last two years (.905 in 2009, .865 in 2008). Provided that he ends up in a good position in real-life baseball, and that his fantasy owner finds a caddy for those days against lefties, Overbay makes a great late value pick.

Jorge Cantu is also an intriguing later-round value. Cantu proved that he is consistently inconsistent from year to year by following up a strong 2008 (.277, 29 home runs) with a year that looked completely different (.289, 16 home runs) in 2009. One thing that pops out in the numbers is that when his strikeout rate is high, his power his greater and his batting average is weaker. So, while it is great that he is walking more and striking out less as he ages, it makes predicting his power and batting average in 2010 difficult. Complicating the prediction process further is the fact that his team is unsettled and he is a candidate for a trade as he becomes more expensive. Bill James likes Cantu for .277 and 18 home runs next year (but with a few more strikeouts than in 2009), and, though seemingly rare with James’ projections, there is a chance for the player to outproduce those power numbers.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Jermaine Dye and trade Johnny Cueto last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

John Maine – Current owners may look at his .252 BABIP and 4.41 FIP and see a sell candidate. But Maine was terrible the first three games of the season and has quietly been a very effective pitcher since then. In his last seven games, Maine is 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA. Linear Weights shows his fastball, which was such a good pitch in both 2006 and 2007, has rebounded into positive numbers despite a slight decrease in velocity.

Jorge Cantu – After a hot start to the season, Cantu really struggled in May and now his updated ZiPS shows him falling fall short of last year’s HR and R totals. A hand injury that he refused to come out of the lineup for hurt his numbers, especially early in the month. But Cantu has hit a solid .286 over his last 14 games and he could be a great pickup if his power numbers rebound as the hand improves.

Jhonny Peralta – Here is another player whose numbers have been dragged down due to injury. After a strong first two weeks of the season, Peralta injured his left elbow. The injury sapped his power and helped his average fall below .200 in early May. But in his last 21 games, Peralta is batting .347, albeit still with no power. The most attractive thing about Peralta as a fantasy player is his 20-HR power. RoS ZiPS sees Peralta hitting 11 HR the rest of the season.

Gavin Floyd – A 17-game winner a year ago, Floyd was overvalued by many coming into the season. But it seems that he has reached the point now where he is an undervalued commodity. Floyd’s strikeout rate is up over 1.5 per nine from a year ago and his FIP is actually lower now than it was in 2008 (4.14 opposed to 4.77). But he is being hurt by baserunners, as his BB rate is up and his BABIP sits at .335 compared to a .296 lifetime mark. But in his last three outings, Floyd has allowed just seven walks in 23 IP. Improved control along with a little better luck on balls in play could add up to a big improvement in Floyd’s numbers.

Nolan Reimold – The Baltimore rookie has provided some nice power, with five home runs in his first 17 games. While that pace may not be sustainable, the power is not a huge surprise, as Reimold hit 25 HR last year in Double-A. Reimold has made good contact since returning from a strained oblique in 2007. He will not hurt you in average and could be a cheap source of power as he is owned in only 5.1 percent of ESPN leagues.

Trade

Nate McLouth – An All-Star in 2008, McLouth came into the season with an ADP of 59 as owners anticipated another 25-25 season and hoped for 30-30. So far, McLouth has been hitting for power but he has been disappointing in the other categories. He looks like a nice acquisition target, as his BABIP is a dismal .254 so far. But his updated ZiPS shows him hitting just .256 with 22 HR and 20 SB. McLouth’s first half of 2008, when he had 19 HR and a .542 SLG, is looking like a career outlier. His SLG was .459 in 2007, .426 in the second half of 2008 and is .451 this season.

Kevin Millwood – He is in the top 10 in the American League with a 3.23 ERA but that comes along with a 5.05 FIP. His .256 BABIP is 50 points below his career average and his 83.9 percent strand rate is unlikely to last. Adding to the worries is his K/9, which sits at 4.96, down from 6.67 last year and his career average of 7.09.

Raul Ibanez – An extremely reliable fantasy performer the past seven seasons, Ibanez is off to a fantastic start. CBS Sports lists him as the fifth-best fantasy player so far while RotoTimes has him at number four. If you can sell high, now would be the time. Ibanez is just not this good and he has absolutely feasted on the pitching of the last-place Nationals. Due to a quirk of the schedule, Ibanez and the Phillies have played 12 games versus Washington and no more than six against anyone else. In those 12 games versus the Nationals and their MLB-worst 6.16 R/G staff, Ibanez is hitting .440 with 6 HR, 18 RBI and 15 R. His play against Washington has raised his AVG alone 23 points. Ibanez won’t see that pitching staff again until September 8th.

Doug Davis – He has only posted two wins but has been a strong contributor in the other three SP categories. But a 4.78 FIP suggests Davis has been more than a little lucky with his 3.65 ERA. After posting a 2.91 ERA and a 1.176 WHIP in April, Davis had a 4.37 ERA and a 1.371 WHIP in May.

Mark DeRosa – The Indians are allegedly shopping DeRosa and so should you. Since he qualifies at three positions, DeRosa can still be a useful fantasy player and should have trade value. The updated ZiPS shows him with numbers that come close to his 2008 ones, but that seems overly optimistic. DeRosa did so much of his damage during his career year last year at Wrigley Field, where he batted .316/.404/.514. His road numbers last year of .254/.347/.448 look remarkably like what he has posted so far in 2009.