Archive for Jordan Schafer

Is there an outfield more exciting than that of the Braves right now? I think not. Sure, maybe the Angels come close now that they’ve added Hamilton, but overall, I don’t see a better starting three that has as much proven talent with still plenty of upside waiting to emerge than the Braves have right now. You’ve got strong power, excellent speed and each one of them plays strong enough defense that Fredi Gonzalez won’t ever hesitate to keep running the same three guys out there so long as everyone is healthy. In the fantasy world, that’s just pure gold. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been a couple of weeks since we last took a look at the Rookie of the Year races in both the American and National leagues, so let’s have a look at how the top freshman hitters in Major League Baseball are doing.

Chris Getz (Chicago, 2B): Despite being slowed by a broken finger, Getz has pretty much done everything you could hope for from a second baseman: He’s played good defense, run a little bit, and hit for a respectable average (.274). Now at the top of the order, his .340 on-base average could be a little more impressive if he walked a bit more (6.7 BB%) but he’s putting the ball in play (9.5 K%). Getz is not having a flashy season, but it may be the most consistent amongst the rookies in the American League.

Elvis Andrus (Texas, SS): If you prefer flashy, Andrus is your man. The 20 year old’s defense (and range) is one of the main reasons why Texas is in first place in the American League West. His defense is only going to get better by watching (and listening) to veteran teammate Omar Vizquel. Offensively, he’s not embarrassing himself with a line of .273/.312/.409 but he could stand to run a little bit more on the base paths. After stealing 54 bases in 118 games in 2008, he has just three steals so far this season in the Majors.

Travis Snider (Toronto, LF): Batting ninth in Toronto’s potent (right now, anyway), first-place lineup, Snider is having an inconsistent season mainly due to his eagerness at the plate. He is swinging at pitchers’ pitches right now and not being patient enough. His line of .250/.305/.420 is a bit of a disappointment, but his strikeout rate of 20.5 K% is encouraging for a young slugger, who hasn’t been playing his best – especially considering his career rate was around 30 K% entering 2009.

Brett Gardner (New York, CF): During the course of the past two seasons, Gardner has combined to hit .228/.284/.290 in 70 big league games, which won’t cut it for most if not all teams – and definitely not the New York Yankees. With a career ISO below .100 and a walk rate under 10%, the 25-year-old rookie is quickly fading into a role as a fourth or fifth outfielder. And he likely has a smaller window of time to turn things around than many prospects would.

Cameron Maybin (Florida, CF): It has been a disappointing season for the former No. 1 prospect, who was sent down to triple-A this past weekend. His line of .202/.280/.310, though, was just not cutting it, especially for a team battling to hold on to first place in the National League East division.

Travis Ishikawa (San Francisco, 1B): Ishikawa is another rookie that has been struggling, despite being platooned by the Giants. Overall, he is hitting just .219/.284/.288 with zero homers in 73 at-bats. The left-handed batter is hitting just .224 against right-handers. Jesus Guzman and John Bowker, both of whom can play 1B, are hitting very well in triple-A.

Chris Dickerson (Cincinnati, OF): In his last six games, Dickerson has received just six at-bats, while minor league journeymen Laynce Nix has seen an increase in playing time. Yes, Dickerson is scuffling (.197/.316/.288) but riding the pine is not going to help him. The Reds have a team loaded with young talent, but I maintain manager Dusty Baker should be in charge of a club that relies on veteran rosters – He’s not the right person to develop and guide young players.

Dexter Fowler (Colorado, CF): Fowler finally received regular playing time but after stealing five bases in one game on April 27, he’s gone just 3-for-14 (.214) with zero stolen bases and no extra base hits. His line is down to .258/.333/.382 and the Rockies organization is loaded with outfielders so he needs to get back on track.

Jordan Schafer (Atlanta, CF): He popped two homers in the first three games of his MLB career, but Schafer has not gone deep since (29 games and counting). More troubling is the fact that he has just two extra base hits in May, along with 20 strikeouts in 12 games. On the positive side, he does have 23 walks on the season (17.8 BB%).

Colby Rasmus (St. Louis, CF): It’s been a bad year for the rookie center fielders. Fowler and Rasmus are the best hitters of the bunch. Rasmus’ triple-slash line is an uninspiring .256/.337/.349. He’s actually hitting pretty good against right-handed pitching with a .299 average, but he is 2-for-19 against southpaws (.105 average). Rasmus could end up in a platoon role soon if he doesn’t show signs of improving in that area.

So, what other rookie hitters should we begin watching in the American and National leagues?

Brett Gardner | CF | New York
Versus Kansas City and RHP Gil Meche

At-Bat 1:

The Braves are loaded with outfield prospects. Jason Heyward is one of the best prospects in the game. Gorkys Hernandez could be an everyday center fielder. And Jordan Schafer may be a future star. Of these three, Schafer is the closest to the majors, and bears watching in fantasy leagues in 2009.

Jordan Schafer’s 2008 season didn’t exactly start well. In fact, it was put on hold after 11 at bats: Schafer was suspended for 50 games for use of HGH. Schafer returned in June and played well in June and July for the Braves’s double-A affiliate in Mississippi, but he really turned it on in August. In 100 at bats in August, Schafer hit .320/.409/.630 with 6 homers and 7 doubles. Granted, it’s a small sample size, but it also would make sense that Schafer may need a month or two to get himself back into the game, physically and mentally.

Overall, Schafer hit .269/.378/.471 with 10 homers and 12 steals, which is extremely impressive for a 21-year old in double-A. He showed solid plate discipline, striking out 88 times but walking 49. And if we look closer, we can see that Schafer’s season was even more impressive.

Mississippi is generally a pitcher’s park, and it depressed homers by 18% in 2007. Schafer’s home/road splits reflect the difficult hitting environment in Mississippi: at home, Schafer hit .239/.378/.373, but on the road he hit .293/.376/.549. Schafer also hit nine of his ten homers on the road. Therefore, it’s fair to surmise that Schafer’s numbers would have been even better if he played half of his games in a more neutral environment.

On the flip side, Schafer really struggled against left handed pitching, hitting only .196/.306/.299 against southpaws, while crushing righties to the tune of .309/.416/.565. Schafer is still quite young and has plenty of time to improve against lefties – whether he is able to improve against them could be the difference between whether he becomes an above-average player or a star.

Jordan Schafer’s career thus far looks quite similar to another center fielder: Grady Sizemore. Sizemore’s performance at double-A was eerily similar to Schafer’s (minus the suspension), as Sizemore hit .304/.373/.480 with 13 homers and 10 steals (and a 73/49 K/BB ratio) –remember, Schafer hit .269/.378/.471 with 10 homers and 12 steals (and a 88/49 K/BB ratio). Sizemore’s line was more impressive – Sizemore was only 20 at the time, while Schafer was 21, and Sizemore’s strikeout rate was much better than Schafer’s. However, Sizemore – like Schafer – struggled mightily against lefties, and Sizemore – like Schafer – had a well-rounded game and scouts could easily project power in the future.

Obviously, Jordan Schafer is unlikely to become Grady Sizemore. Sizemore developed nearly perfectly, Sizemore’s season at double-A was slightly better than Schafer’s, and Sizemore was a year younger at the time (which makes a huge difference). However, the similarities between the two are not to be taken lightly, and even if Schafer doesn’t become as good as Sizemore, Schafer can still be a star.

Atlanta has never been hesitant to promote young players to the majors, and there are no major roadblocks to prevent Schafer from ascending to the big leagues. He offers a unique blend of speed and power, and has enough plate discipline that he should be an asset even without a high batting average. Schafer’s strikeout rate wasn’t terrible, but it was high enough to suggest that he could have a rather low batting average, at least in his first year or two in the majors, but he offers enough additional skills that he could be useful to you anyway.

Schafer is still young and may struggle in his first taste of the big leagues. Don’t expect him to storm into the majors like Jay Bruce did last year. However, if Schafer gets 300 at bats, he could hit 10 homers and steal 10 bases, while scoring and driving in a fair amount of runs and hitting .250 or so. There is some value in a player like that, especially a mid-season waiver-wire pickup. Schafer’s long-term star is very, very bright, but his 2009 may be somewhat of a disappointment.