Archive for Jon Lester

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Boston Red Sox club that finished second overall in the American League East division with a record of 95-67. The organization claimed the Wild Card title but was eliminated in the American League Division Series. As a team, the Red Sox posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of 4.01, seventh overall in the Majors and third in the AL.

The Good: Jon Lester, LHP
A lot of people felt that Lester peaked in his first full season in the Majors in 2008. A lot of people were wrong. The lefty, at the age of 25, became one of the top hurlers in baseball. He allowed 186 hits in 203.1 innings while striking out 225 batters (9.96 K/9). Lester also posted a nice walk rate at 2.83 BB/9. His fastball velocity increased 1.5 mph over 2008 but it took a step back value wise from 0.82 to 0.25 wFB/C. However, each one of his secondary pitches (cutter, curve, change) improved. Lester was worth 6.2 wins above replacement in 2009, up from 5.1 in 2008.

What’s important for fantasy owners to acknowledge is that he’s proven to be durable – especially considering that he’s coming back from cancer. All his statistics also point to a legitimate improvement in numerous areas, which limits the likelihood of a fluke season. Lester finished fifth in the Majors in strikeouts and he plays on a club that will give him plenty of opportunities to be awarded wins.

The Bad: Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP
Matsuzaka looked like a stud after his first MLB campaign in 2007; He then won 18 games with just three losses and he posted a strikeout rate of 8.27 K/9 in his sophomore year. There were some red flags, though, such as the walk rate of 5.05 BB/9 and the significant ERA/FIP gap. Even so, Matsuzaka was worth 3.3 wins above replacement in ’08 and fans expected more in ’09. No one expected him to be worth just half a win above replacement, and no one expected Matsuzaka to make just 12 starts. Unfortunately, he was also extremely homer prone (1.52 HR/9), he allowed a lot of line drives (23%) and all of his pitches decreased in effectiveness.

Matsuzaka will enter the 2010 season with a wait-and-see label. The wild-card has a chance to be a dominating pitcher again if he can harness the command of his fastball and slider. His health will also play a huge part in his potential success. At just 29 years of age, Matsuzaka has the potential to provide innings, strikeouts and wins. You will have to accept a certain number of walks and homers, though.

Here is the latest update to Week 22 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

BOS – Lester
COL – de la Rosa
CIN – Cueto
MIN – Blackburn
CLV – C. Carrasco

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

BOS – Wakefield
OAK – Cahill
TEX – Nippert
TOR – Tallet
CIN – Lehr
CLV – Huff
COL – Fogg
MIN – Gabino

Lester has just one decision in his last six outings but has put up a 2.97 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 39.1 innings in that span. Overall, Lester has been pitching better this year than a season ago both by FIP (3.10 – 3.64) and tRA (3.46 – 4.52) but has neither the wins nor the ERA from last year.

de la Rosa has experienced feast or famine recently. He has five Quality Starts in his last eight games and missed another by 1/3 of an inning in an outing where he allowed 0 ER and struck out nine. But in the other two games he permitted 13 ER in 11 IP. Overall de la Rosa remains a good start with 12 W already and a 9.20 K/9 mark.

Cueto is slated to be activated from the disabled list in time to start in Game Two of the Reds’ double header versus the Pirates. Cueto had been sidelined with a sore shoulder. He started the season on fire, going 8-4 with a 2.69 ERA but was 0-6 with a 10.64 ERA in his final eight games before hitting the DL.

Blackburn had an 8-4 record on July 10. Since then he has lost five consecutive decisions and has an 8.22 ERA over eight starts. Just further proof how hard it is to succeed in the majors with a low strikeout rate. Blackburn has a K/9 of 3.79, which is the second-worst mark in the majors.

Carrasco, one of the players acquired from the Phillies in the Cliff Lee trade, is slated to make his major league debut after going 5-1 at Triple-A Columbus following the deal. Carrasco has a good fastball and a plus pitch with his changeup. He pitched into the seventh inning in five of his six starts for Columbus and had 7 BB and 36 Ks in 42.1 IP.

Here is the latest update to Week 18 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

BOS – Lester
MIL – Gallardo
DET – Washburn
NYY – Pettitte
STL – Pineiro
BAL – Matusz
CLE – Huff

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

NYY – Chamberlain
BOS – Penny
TEX – Feldman
BAL – Bergesen
DET – French
CLE – Laffey

Lester had a string of six straight Quality Starts snapped in his last outing July 30th versus the A’s, when he gave up 4 ER in 5.2 IP in a no-decision. He has two road starts this week with games at Tampa and at New York. So far in 2009 Lester’s ERA is 4.52 in road games, compared to 3.33 in Fenway Park.

Gallardo has reeled off back-to-back wins after being saddled with a loss in three straight appearances. In his last outing, Gallardo fanned 11 batters and allowed just one walk in seven innings versus the Nationals. The solo walk was an encouraging sign for Gallardo, who has allowed a career-high 4.27 BB/9 this season.

Washburn makes his first starts for his new team this week and fantasy owners are eager to find out if his good fortune this season follows him to Detroit. Washburn has a .249 BABIP and a 79.5 percent strand rate this season. His FIP checks in at 3.76, more than a run higher than his 2.64 ERA. Washburn has a lifetime 5.33 ERA in Comerica Park, where he will make both starts this week.

Pettitte seeks to snap a three-game losing streak this week. The Yankees lefthander has not won since July 1st, a stretch that covers five games. In that span he has a 5.34 ERA. After starting the season with a 5-1 record, Pettitte has a 3-5 mark with a 4.92 ERA over his past 11 starts and has allowed eight HRs in 64 IP.

Pineiro picked up four losses in June despite a 2.65 ERA for the month. So in July he posted a 1.22 ERA and went 3-0 in five starts. Pineiro is continuing to serve up grounders, as 61 percent of his batted balls are beat into the ground. His GB/FB ratio of 2.70 easily leads the majors and he has the lowest HR/FB mark (3.0%) of all qualified pitchers.

Matusz is scheduled to make his major league debut this week subbing for the injured Bergesen. The 6’5 LHP was a combined 11-2 this season between two levels, including 7-0 with a 1.55 ERA at Double-A Bowie. The fourth overall pick in the 2008 Draft, Matusz has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s and he fanned 120 batters in 112 innings in the minors.

Huff has a 6.39 ERA but has received an average run support of 6.05 runs per game, which explains how he sits at 5-5 after 14 games. But with a 1.58 WHIP and a K/9 ratio of 4.62 Huff is not a good fantasy pitcher regardless of how much run support he receives.

Red Sox southpaw Jon Lester entered the 2009 season with enormous expectations. Fresh off a strong 2008 campaign in which he compiled a 3.64 FIP and progressively gained velocity as the season went on, the 25 year-old had plenty of hype surrounding him this offseason.

At first glance, Lester sure seems like a massive disappointment to this point. One might initially feel as though Lester has been shelled in 2009, given his losing record and 6.31 ERA. However, there are a number of reasons to expect a strong rebound from Boston’s co-ace.

Lester might have a grisly ERA, but his 4.35 Fielding Independent ERA is considerably sunnier. His strikeout rate has swelled to 10.67 per nine innings: that’s the sixth-highest rate among all starters. Also, his walk rate has remained stable (2.83 BB/9, compared to last year’s 2.82 mark, and his BB/PA is 7.1% in ’09 compared to 7.6% in ’08).

If anything, that FIP actually understates how good Lester has been: he has surrendered a whopping 1.74 home runs per nine innings, with an inflated HR/FB mark of 17.4%. HR/FB rates tend to hover around 10-11%, and Lester’s career rate sits at 9%. When that rate regresses, Lester’s ERA should drop like a lead balloon. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (to root out his poor luck of flyballs), Lester checks in at 3.79. That’s four-tenths of a run lower than last season, and ranks 6th among American League starters.

Lester has also has endured a spate of bad luck on balls put in play: his BABIP sits at .394, tied with fellow Red Sock and rebound candidate Josh Beckett for the highest mark in the big leagues. Boston isn’t performing especially well with the leather as a team (ranking 25th in UZR/150), but that figure will surely drop as time goes on.

This would be the perfect time to pilfer Lester from a frustrated owner. His numbers are superficially gruesome, but the underlying performance is actually very encouraging. If you own Lester, sit tight and wait for better days ahead. If not, then do all you can to acquire him on the cheap.

Hopefully sometime last week you were able to pull off a Jarrod Washburn for Justin Verlander trade. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of trade targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Justin Upton – A terrible start to the season, where he opened 0-15, has kept Upton’s overall numbers low. But last week he had five hits, including two home runs. Upton likely won’t contribute much in SB but otherwise he should be a four-category star. Last year he was sidetracked by numerous injuries but when healthy in September he had a .919 OPS in 85 PA, having just turned 21 the previous month.

Francisco Liriano – The electric pitcher from 2006 may never come back. However, Liriano has pitched much better than his 7.06 ERA indicates. He has a 4.96 FIP and a lot of the discrepancy can be explained by his dismal 50.4 percent strand rate. His peripherals are slightly worse than both last year and the pre-season projections. You should not trade for him thinking he is a No. 1-type SP. But if his current owner is disgusted with his early-season poundings, he could be a nice No. 2/3-type SP the rest of the season.

A.J. Burnett – The second time through the order against the Red Sox this past Saturday, Burnett got lit up. But the highly-publicized meltdown is obscuring his three other outings this year, in which he had a 3.20 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 20.2 IP. Burnett gave up eight ER twice last year and his main value is not ERA anyway. He is a wins and strikeouts guy and should provide plenty of both for the remainder of the season.

Howie Kendrick – Okay, he is not going to walk and he is not going to appear on the HR leaderboards. But let’s focus on what he can do. Kendrick’s main asset is an AB-heavy high average. His overall AVG sits at just .258 but, much like Upton, he started off the year in a funk, going 10-51. In 1,011 career at-bats, Kendrick has a .303 average in the majors. His ISO sits at .167 which would be a career best. As always with Kendrick it comes down to health. But I like the breakout potential if he can somehow manage 150 games played.

Jon Lester – The 4.88 ERA is not pretty but the FIP is almost exactly what it was a year ago for Lester at 3.66 so far. He is striking out more batters and walking fewer but his HR rate has nearly doubled. Last year’s HR/9 of 0.60 was unsustainable so we should assume that this year’s 1.13 mark is here to stay. But the .384 BABIP should come down significantly, which should help his other numbers.

Trade

Aramis Ramirez – The five projection systems all agreed on Aramis Ramirez, seeing him before the season basically as a .287 hitter with 28 HR. Right now Ramirez has a robust .358 AVG thanks to a .372 BABIP. All of the projection systems showed Ramirez with a BABIP between .289 and .299 for the year. He is not off to a great HR start. Ramirez could still easily meet his HR projection, but it would be nice for his chances to once again top 30 HR if his hot start included more than three homers.

Kosuke Fukudome – Congratulations if you had Fukudome in your lineup so far! Now do yourself a favor and sell. He simply is not going to have a .273 ISO or a .348 AVG or 15+ RBI months going forward. Last April he had a .327/.436/.480 line in April and those numbers declined each month.

Chris Volstad – In the last three seasons, the highest K/9 in Volstad’s career was the 6.64 he posted in 126 innings in the Hi-A Florida State League. He currently has an 8.49 K/9 without a significant increase in velocity or the addition of a new pitch. Additionally his ERA is a nifty 2.70 but his FIP stands at 4.66 so far. If the strikeouts disappear at the same time the hits start falling in, this could get ugly quick.

Brandon Phillips – Many touted Phillips as a top-3 second baseman heading into the season. So you would think a .172 average at the end of April would qualify him for the “Acquire” part of this list. But Phillips was overrated coming into the year based on his 2007 season. Plus this is getting into Robinson Cano territory from last year where the first month was so bad that the rest of the season could not compensate. Obviously, the .189 BABIP and the .078 ISO will go up significantly in the weeks and months ahead. But now is the time to cut your losses if anyone offers good talent in return.

Matt Cain – The past two seasons have been pretty similar for Cain. In 2007 he had a 3.65 ERA and a 3.78 FIP and last year he had a 3.76 ERA and a 3.91 FIP. This year his FIP checks in at 3.97 yet his ERA stands at 2.08. He is succeeding thanks to an 89.7 percent strand rate, which is likely to come down quite a bit. Also, his velocity is down nearly a full point, from 92.4 to 91.5 and his K/9 has dropped from 7.69 to 6.23.

As a cancer survivor, Jon Lester is a great human interest story and one of the easiest players to root for in the game. However, as hyperbolic as it might sound, the Red Sox lefty might just be underrated in fantasy circles heading into the 2009 season. Here are some reasons why the 25 year-old should be high on your draft list:

Improved Peripherals

In his first full season in the majors, Lester posted a solid 2.3 K/BB ratio and a 3.64 Fielding Independent ERA. Control had always been something of an issue for Jon as he climbed the minor league ladder (he walked about 3.8 batters per nine innings), and remained so during stints with Boston in 2006 (4.76 BB/9) and 2007 (4.43 BB/9). In ’08, however, he pared that walk rate down to 2.82 per nine innings.

His K rate (6.5 per nine) was essentially league average, but he did fool more batters as the year progressed. After posting 5.9 K/9 during the first half of the season, Lester struck out 7.4 per nine innings during the home stretch.

More Groundballs

After posting groundball rates of 40.6% in ’06 and 34.4% in ’07, Lester improved his percentage of worm burners to 47.5. The reason for the increase would appear to be an interesting hybrid sinker pitch that Lester picked up. Earlier this offseason, I examined Jon’s pitch F/X data and found the following:

“I found out that what we’re seeing on Lester’s chart is actually the combination of a four-seam and one-seam fastball. That’s right, one-seam. Lester throws an offshoot of a sinker, gripped in an unusual manner along just one seam of the baseball…Lester’s use of the one-seamer may also explain a pretty big uptick in his groundball percentage.”

If the uptick in grounders holds, Lester shouldn’t have many issues with the long ball.

Improved Velocity

If there’s one concern with Lester heading in to the 2009 season, it’s his rather dramatic increase in innings pitched. The 6-2, 190 pounder was one of the “Verducci Effect” candidates that we identified back in December, as he tossed 74 more frames in 2008 than he did the previous campaign. While velocity is just one sector of what goes into pitching, Lester did throw harder as the season progressed, suggesting that he was not tiring on his way to a career-high workload:

Lester’s fastball velocity by month:
April: 90.8 MPH
May: 91.5 MPH
June: 91.8 MPH
July: 92.4 MPH
Aug: 92.5 MPH
Sept: 93.7 MPH

There’s a lot to like in Jon Lester. Better strike zone control, a devastating cutter/curve combo, improved fastball velocity, a higher percentage of grounders induced..the list goes on. Don’t be surprised if this southpaw puts his hat in the ring of AL Cy Young contenders in 2009.