Pitching, pitching, pitching! That’s the focus of today’s Roto Riteup.
– We talked a little bit about the closer situation in Boston earlier this week, but now things have gotten more complicated. Andrew Bailey is going to have surgery on his thumb, and there’s a good chance he now misses half the season or more. Whoever is name his replacement will have solid value throughout the season, whether it be Mark Melancon or Alfredo Aceves.
Today’s Roto Riteup isn’t nearly as exciting as FanGraphs: The Game, which you should totally acquaint yourself with.
– Baseball starts tomorrow morning! Can you believe it? Don’t forget to set your lineups in anticipation of the Seattle Mariners’ matchup against the Oakland A’s in Japan.
Now is the time of year to worry about who you plan on keeping next season. Since most league’s trading deadline has passed, you’re going to need to head over to the waiver wire to find available young pieces. Here are three guys who you should consider picking up and keeping in deeper or league-specific leagues.
Roger Bernadina | OF | Nationals
The Nationals called up Bernadina when their other right field options (notably Justin Maxwell) failed early on. In a little over 350 trips to the plate this year, he’s posted a triple slash of .271/.327/.433 with a .338 wOBA. It’s not a surprise that he’s stolen 13 bases, but his double digit home runs are a shock, seeing that he never hit for power in any of his minor league stints. Bernadina turned 26 in July, so the power may finally be developing. He’s never going to be a superstar, but a 15/25 season is a reasonable expectation if he gets steady playing time next year.
Gregor Blanco | OF | Royals
Blanco came over to Kansas City thanks to the Ankiel/Farnsworth deal, and has gotten steady playing time ever since. The lefty rarely hits fly balls, which allows him to maintain a high BABIP without a super LD%. He knows how to draw a walk, but a lack of power makes him only a league average hitter. He’s stolen 10 bases in under 200 plate appearances, and has only been caught once as a Royal. If Ned Yost gives him the same amount of playing time for a full season, Blanco could steal 25 bases without hurting your batting average, with the distinct possibility of swiping more than 30 bags.
John Lannan | SP | Nationals
While his overall numbers aren’t fantastic, Lannan has put up impressive numbers since being recalled in August. Lannan regained his control, while finding a way to raise his Whiff%, too. He’s maintained an impressive ground ball percentage through all of this, and I’m loving what he’s done in August. Be a bit more cautious with Lannan, but I think he’s figured something out on the mound, and could be a solid contributor next year.
Jon Rauch, Minnesota Twins
Manager Ron Gardenhire originally announced that the Twins would go with a closer-by-committee in the absence of Joe Nathan, likely causing some fantasy owners to shred their own UCL’s throwing something at the computer screen. However, Gardenhire has since changed course and will call upon Rauch in the ninth inning.
The towering, tatted up Twin has an unusually deep arsenal for a reliever, with a low-90’s fastball, low-80’s slider, mid-70’s curve and a mid-80’s changeup. Rauch has gone to those secondary pitches with greater frequency: his fastball percentage has fallen from 67.9 percent in 2006, 60.4% in 2007, 59.9% in 2008 to 52.8 percent in 2009.
He’s not your prototypical late-game reliever. Over the past three seasons, Rauch has struck of 7.3 batters per nine innings, with contact rates hovering around the MLB average of 80-81 percent. However, he does a nice job of getting ahead in the count, with a 63.7 first-pitch strike percentage since ’07 (10th among relievers over that time frame, and well above the 58% MLB average).
Add it all up, and you have a good, not great reliever who will provide value in all formats but won’t be a force by any means. CHONE predicts a 3.96 FIP in 2010, while ZiPS forecasts a 4.27 mark.
Felix Pie, Baltimore Orioles
With Nolan Reimold still working his way back from offseason surgery to repair a damaged left Achilles tendon (and taking grounders at first base), Pie figures to be in the lineup often as the 2010 season gets under way. The 25 year-old had his own health scare a few days ago (taking a Mo Rivera pitch off his right ankle), but he’s OK.
While his Cubs career came to a frustrating conclusion, Pie made some headway in 2009. In 281 PA, the lefty batter posted a .326 wOBA, showing progress in working the count. Never known for his patience in the minors (7.4 BB%), Pie drew a walk in 8.5 percent of his plate appearances. He has a career .300/.353/.478 line at the Triple-A level, and he should be at least a league-average hitter this upcoming season.
Pie’s inclusion in the opening day lineup, coupled with Reimold trying to get acquainted with first base, suggests that the O’s are intent on giving Pie’s decent bat and great range a chance to shine. If he shows some restraint at the plate, Pie could be a sleeper.
Shaun Marcum, Toronto Blue Jays
Taking a big league mound for the first time since September of 2008, Marcum tossed seven strong innings against the Texas Rangers. The 28 year-old righty, sidelined following Tommy John surgery, gave up three runs while punching out six batters and walking just one.
As BrooksBaseball.net’s Pitch F/X goodies show, Marcum did a great job of locating his fastball and changeup for strikes (69 percent for the fastball, 76 percent for the change). His curveball and slider weren’t as sharp.
Never a hard thrower, Marcum averaged 86 MPH with his fastball, a tick or two below his usual range (it’s possible that some cutters are classified as fastballs, throwing off the average, but that doesn’t seem to be the case). Of course, he relies on the fastball less than just about any starter in the game.
Marcum’s upside isn’t huge, but he did post rates of 7.31 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and a 4.24 FIP in 151.1 innings in 2008. It remains to be seen whether he’ll remain healthy, but Marcum’s cornucopia of pitches, solid K rate and quality control make him a good option in AL-only formats.
John Bowker, San Francisco Giants
Bowker got the start in right field for the Giants on opening day, with Nate Schierholtz relegated to bench duty. San Francisco seemingly prefers Bowker’s bat to Schierholtz’s glove.
The 26 year-old lefty hitter hasn’t done much in limited major league looks (.300 wOBA in 427 PA), straying from the strike zone often with a 31.1 outside swing percentage (25% MLB average) and a 5.4 percent walk rate. However, Bowker was the epitome of patience at Triple-A Fresno in 2009: he batted .342/.451/.596 in 450 PA, drawing a free pass 16.4 percent while also hammering the ball with a .254 Isolated Power. Clearly, the former Long Beach State Dirtbag benefitted from a BABIP over .360, but his Major League Equivalent line (MLE) was still a handy .288/.376/.466.
What do the projection systems say about the free-swinger-turned-walk-machine? CHONE forecasts a .350 wOBA, with a 9.3 percent walk rate and a .180 ISO. ZiPS is less enthusiastic, with a .340 wOBA, 8.9 BB% and a .165 ISO. Keep an eye on the Giants’ lineup-Bowker could help in NL-only leagues.
Gio Gonzalez, Oakland Athletics
The 24 year-old southpaw fascinates and frustrates with his ability to blow hitters away one inning, and then looking like he’s pitching blindfolded after being spun in circles the next. The thrice-traded Gonzalez has earned a spot in Oakland’s rotation, and he could be a nice addition for AL-only owners.
Gonzalez’s 2009 ERA (5.75) looks ugly, but he suffered from a .369 BABIP and a home run per fly ball rate nearing 14 percent (10-12% average for starters). His expected FIP (xFIP) was much better, at 4.02. His control is poor (career 5.49 BB/9, with a 54.2 first-pitch strike percentage). But with that bat-missing curve, Gio will provide plenty of K’s. CHONE thinks Gonzalez could be a league-average hurler, with a 4.57 FIP.
Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers
Following a 2007 season in which he hit .295/.353/.539 with a .380 wOBA, Hart looked like an important part of the Brew Crew’s long-term plans.
While he shouldn’t have been expected to keep producing at that level, it’s awfully disappointing that he has turned in back-to-back mundane years at the dish (.327 wOBA in 2008, .331 wOBA in 2009). In ’08, Hart still hit for power (.191 ISO) but took a hack-happy approach (4.1 BB%, 31.7 outside-swing percentage). In ’09, he showed more restraint (9.1 BB%, 23.5 O-Swing%) but his ISO fell to .158.
One of the main reasons that Hart hasn’t come close to his ’07 work is his performance against sliders. He can’t hit them, and pitchers know it. Hart’s percentage of sliders seen has gone from 18.7% in 2007, 23.5% in 2008 to 24.1% in ’09 (sixth-highest in the majors). His run value against the slider was +0.68 in ’07, -0.2 in ’08 and -1.12 in ’09.
Now, Hart may at times take a backseat to Jim Edmonds, who has gone from talking about a comeback at St. Louis’ fan fest to starting on opening day in a few short months.
Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks
Plenty of fantasy folks placed their hopes on the surgically repaired right shoulder of Webb, hoping for a return of his whiff-inducing, groundballing goodness. According to MockDraftCentral, Webb had an ADP of 35 amongst pitchers, ahead of Roy Oswalt, Ryan Dempster and John Danks, to name a few. Unfortunately, Webb may not return to the majors until June, leaving many with a busted draft pick.
Diamondbacks fans must be wondering what they have done to incur the wrath of the baseball gods: you mean, Rodrigo Lopez and Kris Benson might start games?
Jack Cust, Oakland Athletics
Cust was DAF’d by the A’s following a year in which he showed a little more aggression at the plate and a dip in power output. He could land with a club such as the White Sox, but Cust seems resigned to accepting an assignment to Triple-A. CHONE and ZiPS both project a .360ish wOBA, which would be plenty useful in most formats (you don’t have to worry about those pesky defensive problems). But, Cust’s defensive limitations do hamper his appeal to NL clubs. As a result, he might only have value in mythical Pacific Coast fantasy leagues.
John Lannan, Washington Nationals
No, this isn’t an overreaction to one especially poor start from Lannan against the Phillies. Rather, it’s just a reminder that Lannan’s peripherals haven’t come close to matching his sub-four ERA over the past few years.
Perhaps I’m totally wrong, and Lannan has some yet-to-be-discovered ability to outpitch his component stats. But I wouldn’t bet on it. The difference between the 25 year-old southpaw’s career ERA (3.99) and FIP (4.84) is substantial. Lannan gets grounders (52.4 GB%) and has decent control (3.38 BB/9), but he doesn’t fool anyone (4.56 K/9). Others have wracked their brains trying to explain Lannan’s career .276 BABIP, to little avail.
There’s nothing in his batted ball profile that would suggest that he should post a lower-than-average BABIP. Lannan’s career infield fly ball percentage (IF/FB%) is 7.1 percent, below the near eight percent MLB average. So, he’s not getting a lot of weak contact on pop ups, which are near-automatic outs. His groundball-centric style is certainly a positive in terms of limiting extra-base hits, but groundballs have a higher BABIP than fly balls. Lannan’s career BABIP on grounders is .200, while the NL average has been in the .225-.245 range in recent years. That seems likely to rise. Lannan’s career line drive rate (18.3 percent) is pretty close to the 19% MLB average.
If there’s some BABIP-suppressing skill here, I’m not seeing it. Maybe I’m wrong, but I’d bet on an ERA in the mid-to-high four’s this season for Lannan.
Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics
Cahill had a rough rookie season after a brilliant minor league career, missing few bats and getting pasted by lefties as he left his breaking stuff in his back pocket. Now, Cahill is on the shelf with a sore left (non-throwing) shoulder that could keep him out during April. After that, he could head back to Triple-A. His future remains bright, but keep in mind that Cahill had minimal experience above A-Ball entering last season and is far from a finished product.
Here on Wednesday in the final week of the season most leagues have already passed their deadline for waivers. But for those of you in daily transaction leagues with moves still available and innings left to play with, there are no shortage of pitchers to consider. Here are the pitchers going Tuesday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.
Charlie Morton (5%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Lilly. Morton has lost three of his last four decisions and has a 5.04 ERA in that stretch. This year on the road he is 1-5 with a 7.45 ERA in 38.2 IP. Morton is 0-1 against the Cubs this year and he allowed 10 runs in 1 IP in his only start against Chicago.
Carlos Torres (2%) – Has a road start in Cleveland versus Carmona in a makeup of yesterday’s rainout. See Tuesday’s free agent column for more on Torres.
Tim Redding (4%) – Has road start in Washington versus Lannan. In his last seven starts Redding has a 3.19 ERA and a 1.157 WHIP over 42.1 IP. He is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in road starts this year and in two starts against the Nationals is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA.
John Lannan (36%) – Has home start versus Redding and the Mets. In his last nine starts, Lannan is 1-5 with a 5.51 ERA. He is 5-3 with a 2.62 ERA in home starts this season and is 2-2 with a 2.40 ERA in four games against New York.
Eddie Bonine (1%) – Has a home start against Pavano and the Twins. The 28-year old has appeared in nine games for Detroit this season and made three starts. His last outing he allowed two unearned runs in 6.2 IP versus the White Sox. Bonine throws a fastball, slider and change and rounds out his repertoire with an occasional knuckleball.
Robinson Tejeda (25%) – Has a road start in New York versus Chamberlain. Had been pitching brilliantly since move to the rotation until allowing 5 ER in 4.1 IP in his last start. Still, he is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA in five games as a starter. Tejeda has a great fastball, which has led to a 10.75 K/9 mark. However, he has been done in by lousy control. Tejeda has a 6.16 BB/9 ratio and he allowed seven walks in his last outing.
Brian Moehler (6%) – Has a road start in Philadelphia versus Martinez. Despite a 4.88 ERA in his last six starts, Moehler has pitched well in that span. Only a seven-run outing in less than three innings in his last start has dragged down his numbers in that span. Moehler is 5-4 with a 3.93 ERA in road games this season. He came away with a no-decision in his only outing against the Phillies this year after allowing 3 ER in 5.2 IP.
David Hernandez (5%) – Has a road start in Tampa Bay versus Shields. In his last eight games, Hernandez is 0-5 with a 7.34 ERA. This year he is 2-5 with a 5.11 ERA in road games. In his only game against the Rays, Hernandez allowed 5 ER in 3 IP and took the loss.
Justin Masterson (34%) – Has a home start against Buehrle and the White Sox after getting rained out yesterday. See Tuesday’s free agent pitchers for more on Masterson.
Jeff Karstens (1%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Zambrano. After starting the season in the rotation, Karstens moved to the bullpen for 26 games before making a start in his last outing on 9/25. Overall, he is 2-3 with a 5.19 ERA in 11 starts. Karstens has pitched two innings versus the Cubs this season and has allowed two earned runs.
Jeff Suppan (9%) – Has a road start in Colorado versus Hammel. In his last four starts, Suppan is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA and has allowed 4 HR in 23.1 IP. He is 4-3 with a 3.56 ERA in road starts this year. This will be Suppan’s first start against the Rockies this season.
Jason Hammel (41%) – Has a home start versus Suppan and the Brewers. In his last 11 starts, Hammel is 4-2 with a 3.74 ERA with 52 Ks in 67.1 IP. Early in the year Hammel had trouble in Coors Field, but he has notched a Quality Start in three of his last four home games. Overall, Hammel is 2-3 with a 5.63 ERA in home games. He is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA this year versus Milwaukee.
Derek Holland (37%) – Has a road start in Anaheim versus Weaver. Holland snapped a five-start losing streak in his last outing, when he allowed three runs in five innings and picked up a win versus the Rays. He is 2-5 with a 4.91 ERA in road games this year. In four games against the Angels, Holland is 2-1 with a 5.12 ERA. Keep in mind that the Angels have clinched and they may not have all of their regulars in the lineup.
Clayton Richard (29%) – Has a home game versus Garland and the Dodgers. In his last five games, Richard has a 3.90 ERA and a 1-1 record. Since being acquired in a trade from the White Sox, Richard is 3-0 with a 2.48 ERA in Petco Park. He has faced the Dodgers once this year and allowed 4 ER in 4.1 IP.
Clayton Mortensen (1%) – Has a road start in Seattle versus Morrow. Acquired from the Cardinals in the Holliday deal, Mortensen has one Quality Start in five games for Oakland. He has a nice 1.93 GB/FB ratio but has been unable to get many strikeouts (3.94 K/9) and has struggled with the gopher ball, as he has allowed 5 HR in 29.2 IP.
Brandon Morrow (28%) – Has a home game versus Mortensen and the A’s. Morrow has made three starts since being recalled from the minors and is 1-0 with a 4.02 ERA. However, he has allowed 11 BB in 15.2 innings over those three outings.
Kevin Mulvey (1%) – Has a road start in San Francisco against Penny. Mulvey has appeared in five games since being acquired on waivers from Minnesota, and has made three starts. In his last outing, he notched a Quality Start, as he allowed 3 ER in 6 IP in a home loss against the Giants.
Here is the latest update to Week 23 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.
Pitchers not listed on last update
NYY – Burnett
TAM – Price
STL – Smoltz
WAS – Lannan
TEX – McCarthy
PIT – McCutchen
CIN – Maloney
KC – Chen
Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts
KC – Bannister
TEX – Nippert
WAS – Mock
TAM – Sonnanstine
CIN – Lehr
NYM – Misch
Burnett was 10-4 at the end of July but since then has gone 0-4 with a 6.54 ERA and a 1.594 WHIP in seven games. He has allowed six HR in his last three games, two of which were on the road. Burnett has two home starts this week, including a game against the Rays, who are third in the league in homers.
Price has gotten a decision in 13 of his last 14 starts and has gone 6-7 in that span. Five of his six wins have been Quality Starts and he has not allowed more than two runs in those six games. But in the seven losses Price has allowed 33 runs and has just one Quality Start. He has a huge home/road split, with a 6-3 record and a 3.32 ERA at Tropicana Field, compared to a 6.81 road ERA. Price has road games this week at New York and at Boston.
Smoltz has made three starts for the Cardinals and has 1 BB and 21 SO in 17 IP. And while he allowed 8 HR in 40 IP in the American League, Smoltz has surrendered just 1 HR in the National League. His first start this week is against the Brewers, the team that scored four runs in six innings against him, three on a HR by Casey McGehee.
Lannan is 2-5 with a 5.13 ERA in his last 11 games. Prior to that, he had won four straight decisions after altering his pitching style to reduce strikeouts and pitch to contact. In the last 11 games, Lannan has a 24/21 SO/BB ratio and has only topped three strikeouts in a game once, when he notched 6 Ks in a win against the Marlins.
McCarthy has made one start since being activated from the disabled list, where he spent nearly three months recovering from a stress fracture in his right shoulder. For the year, McCarthy has an average fastball velocity of 89.2 percent but in his first outing back, he averaged 86.6 and maxed out at 88.4, yet still picked up his sixth win of the season. McCarthy has a 5.91 road ERA this season and has one home and one road game this week.
McCutchen won his major league debut last week against the Reds and notched a Quality Start, going 6 IP with 3 ER. Acquired from the Yankees in the Xavier Nady deal, McCutchen throws in the low 90s and if he can keep the ball in the park, he has a chance. Last year in Triple-A, McCutchen allowed 22 HR in 118.1 IP and went 7-9. This year in Triple-A, he allowed 10 HR in 142.2 IP and went 13-6. McCutchen allowed a leadoff homer to Drew Stubbs in his major league debut.
Maloney has made four starts in the majors and given up two homers in each of them. He has a 0.53 GB/FB ratio and a 20 percent HR/FB mark. Maloney has road starts this week at Colorado and at Chicago. Clint Barmes and Troy Tulowitzki have combined to hit 17 HR versus LHP this year, although no one on the Cubs has more than 4 HR versus southpaws.
Chen is likely to remain in the rotation with injuries to Brian Bannister and Gil Meche. He is a decent strikeout pitcher, with a 6.87 K/9 mark but that is the only thing Chen has going for him fantasy-wise. Both his ERA and FIP are over 5.00 and his WHIP checks in at 1.49. Like Maloney, he is a flyball pitcher (0.57 GB/FB) and he has a 1.64 HR/9 mark. Since notching 13 W with the Orioles in 2005, Chen has just one victory in the majors since, although it did come this season.
Stock Up
Joe Mauer, Twins
I know, everyone reading this site is well aware of Mr. Mauer’s exploits this season. But as Dave Cameron recently noted, we’re entering historic territory here; Joe could be having the best offensive season of any backstop, ever.
The 26 year-old with the silky-smooth lefty swing has performed like a Ted Williams/Josh Gibson hybrid, batting an unfathomable .378/.449/.638, with a .457 wOBA. Despite not making his 2009 debut until May 1st, Mauer has accumulated 6.6 Wins Above Replacement. That leads all major league players. That’s like a sprinter giving his competition a head start, and then dusting them all anyway, running the last quarter of the race backwards for kicks.
I’m not going to delve too deeply into MVP voting philosophy here-the reason for an ostensibly individual award being tethered to team performance has always evaded me. Should we penalize Mauer for not being able to put Delmon Young on base via telekinesis? But, here’s a quick Mauer/Teixeira comparison, with their respective ranks in WAR among hitters:
Mauer: 6.6 WAR, 1st
Teixeira: 4.1 WAR, 24th
Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
Carp essentially didn’t pitch the past two seasons, yet he has returned with a vengeance in 2009. He has been fortunate with a .268 BABIP and a 5.8 HR/FB%, but even when one corrects for those numbers, the 34 year-old is among the very best in the game. In 145.2 IP, Carpenter owns a 3.38 XFIP (based on a pitcher’s walks, strikeouts and a normalized HR/FB rate). Only Lincecum, Vazquez and Haren can top that mark in the NL.
Carpenter does everything that one desires from a starter: he misses a decent amount of bats (6.86 K/9), is extremely stingy with the walks (1.42 BB/9) and wages a ground-based assault on opposing batters (54.7 GB%). Everything in Carp’s bag of tricks is working: his 93 MPH fastball (+2.13 runs/100 pitches), 87 MPH slider/cutter (+1.89 runs/100) and 75 MPH curve (+1.82) give hitters fits.
Matt LaPorta, Indians
What’s a guy got to do to get a promotion around here? LaPorta (the centerpiece of last summer’s Sabathia blockbuster with Milwaukee) posted a robust .299/.380/.530 at AAA Columbus. The 6-2 right-handed batter worked the count well (11.1 BB%), lowered his whiff rate (16.6%) and also posted a .231 ISO. Yet, LaPorta received only a small cameo with the big club earlier in the year. Manager Eric Wedge also made some mildly alarming comments about the slugger back in April:
“LaPorta is so young, just out of college. He’s off to a good start, and his day will come.” (Ohio.com)
Why is that alarming? Well, 1). LaPorta is 24 years old, 2). he’s a polished hitter out of the University of Florida, and 3). he was a senior sign, as an injury during his junior season caused him to slip in the draft, and 4). LaPorta has a career .291/.384/.557 line in the minors. That profile looks about as major league-ready as possible.
LaPorta’s ultimate position has yet to be determined, but he should provide plenty in the secondary skills department (walks and power) for Cleveland and fantasy owners alike.
Charlie Haeger, Dodgers
Perhaps more than any other sport, baseball features an eclectic mix of human beings. Within the confines of one clubhouse, you may well find a guy tall enough to play power forward in the NBA, and another who couldn’t scrape the “You Must Be This Tall To Ride” sign at an amusement park. There are ivy-league educated players, guys signed out of Latin America at age 16 and Far East Imports. That clubhouse likely has a bonus baby with a seven-figure bank account, and a minor league journeyman used to crashing at Motel 8’s and chowing down on peanut butter sandwiches.
In short, baseball is a sport full of atypical people. And flutterball specialists have a special place in the hears of most fans. Haeger, a former White Sox prospect who also briefly appeared with the Padres, has made two pretty successful starts for the Dodgers. The soon-to-be 26 year-old did posted a 4.67 FIP at AAA Albuquerque, and has allowed 3 runs with a 9/4 K/BB with the Dodgers in 14 frames. For more on Haeger, check out Erik Manning’s post here.
Matt Holliday, Cardinals
So much for the whole..”can’t hit outside of Coors” thing. Holliday has long been a quality hitter, cozy home ballpark or no. He posted an average of +41.8 Batting Runs per season from 2006-2008 (that’s park-adjusted), and his obscene hitting with the Cardinals has boosted his 2009 Batting Runs total to 28.6. He’ll likely finish the season somewhere around +35 to +37 Batting Runs, pretty close to his production in the sudsy wonderland of the Rockies. The pending free agent is a superstar, no matter where he plays his ball games.
Stock Down
Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
Lohse did not appear fully healthy upon returning from a forearm strain. He was blasted for.320/.353/.547 opponent line in August, and now heads back to the DL with a groin strain. In the first year of a 4-year, $41 M deal, Lohse has provided 0.8 WAR ($3.7 M worth of value). The Cardinals have to hope he’ll bounce back, as Kyle is owed about $8.9M in 2010 and roughly $11.9M in both 2011 and 2012.
Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
There’s a laundry list of reasons as to why the Cubs currently have less than a 1-in-17 chance of making the playoffs. Aramis Ramirez and Geovany Soto suffered injuries. Milton Bradley’s power was abducted by aliens on the way to Wrigley. The mileage on Big Z’s arm at a young age appears to be making him increasingly fragile.
Soriano’s sordid 2009 season has contributed to the mess as well. After posting wOBA’s of .380 and .374 during his first two seasons with the Cubs, Soriano has fallen off a cliff to .313 this year. Some of that dip might be poor luck on balls put in play- Soriano’s BABIP is .278, and according to this expected BABIP calculator, Alfonso’s BABIP “should” be around .305.
That still doesn’t fully explain Soriano’s season, though. His HR/FB% has fallen from 17.1% in 2008 to 11.4% in 2009. He’s still hitting fastballs well (+0.67 runs/100 pitches), though not at his usual prolific level (+1.93 career). However, Soriano has posted negative run values (curves and changeups have been particularly poisonous) against every other pitch except for cutters.
Soriano will make $18 million annually from 2010-2014, his age 34-38 seasons. If a win above replacement is worth roughly $4.5M on the free agent market, then Alfonso must produce a full 4 WAR per season for the Cubs to break even on the exchange. Color me skeptical that he’ll come anywhere near that level.
Michael Bowden, Red Sox
Bowden’s placement here isn’t really about his debacle of a relief appearance against the Yankees on August 21st (though I’m sure he would like to erase the 2-inning, 7 R disaster from his memory bank, Men In Black-style). Rather, it’s about his larger body of work in the minors this season.
The 2005 supplemental first-rounder wreaked havoc on batters in a 2008 season split between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket (144.1 IP, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9), but 2009 has been more of a shrug-inducing effort. That’s not to say that Bowden has been bad, but his numbers with the Paw Sox (115.1 IP, 6.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9) are a little underwhelming.
The 6-3, 215 pound righty has a quality curve and changeup, but he tends to use a fastball of modest velocity and movement up in the zone. That leads to boat loads of flyballs- Bowden’s GB% in AAA was just 31 percent. An extreme flyball pitcher, in the AL, is going to need more than average control to perform well (Bowden’s Major League Equivalent FIP in his time with Pawtucket was 5.13).
John Lannan, Nationals
Lannan’s ERA in 2008 (3.91) was considerably lower than his XFIP (4.47), and he has outdone his XFIP again this season (4.03 ERA, 4.74 XFIP). However, the gap is closing, with the lefty getting drubbed for 19 runs in 18 August frames. He has issued 11 walks, while punching out nine batters.
The 24 year-old boasts above-average control (2.97 BB/9 in 2009) and groundball tendencies (51.3 GB%). However, his strikeout rate has dipped from slightly below average in 2008 (5.79 K/9) to an untenable 3.75 per nine frames. Compared to last season, hitters are chasing fewer of his pitches (26.1% in ’08, 21.3% in ’09; 25% MLB avg.) and are making more contact (83.1 contact% in ’08, 89% in ’09; 80.6% MLB avg). He’s certainly a serviceable back-rotation hurler, but Lannan is more of a 4.50 ERA+ guy than the high-3, low 4 ERA pitcher that we have seen so far.
Alex Gordon, Royals
The ethics of service time manipulation has become a hot topic of late. We have seen potential “Super Two” players down the road (guys with more than two but less than three years of service time, in the top 17% of service time among players in the class) being kept down until the financial coast is clear (think Travis Snider) and other established young vets like J.J. Hardy being farmed out in order to push back free agency by a year.
Gordon falls into the discussion now. By sending the former Nebraska star back to AAA, the Royals delay Gordon’s free agency by a season. While the timing is awfully convenient, the 25 year-old has endured a nightmarish season. He missed a considerable chunk of the year following hip surgery, and has posted a paltry .290 wOBA in 110 PA. He often rolled over on the ball, hitting grounders at a 51.5% clip. Gordon was supposed to be a star by now, and he appeared to make progress in 2008 by upping his walk rate considerably. He’s no sure-fire stud anymore, but I don’t think it’s time to write him off, either.
Hopefully you were able to pick up Miguel Montero and trade Todd Helton last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.
Obtain
Ben Francisco – Since the end of June, Francisco has been playing virtually every day, most often in left field and with occasional starts in center. In his last 25 games he has a .289/.421/.539 line. He has some room for growth in his HR output and could exceed RoS ZiPS forecast of five dingers. Francisco is owned in only 13 percent of CBS Sports leagues and has the ability to contribute in all five categories, although he is not likely to offer very much in AVG.
Jonathon Niese – The overall Triple-A numbers do not overwhelm you but he won his last five decisions for Buffalo. In his last eight starts in the International League, Niese went 5-1 with a 0.96 ERA, with 13 BBs and 46 Ks in 56.1 innings. In his first start since being promoted, Niese limited the Astros to one run in seven innings in a start at the Juice Box, and retired 17 of the last 18 batters he faced.
Ryan Garko – With the trade to the Giants, Garko should receive regular playing time as the team’s new first baseman. He mashes LHP (.960 OPS this year) and holds his own versus RHP (.772 OPS). That is not great production for a first baseman but with the Giants in need of an upgrade for Travis Ishikawa, it should be enough to keep him in the lineup, something he struggled with in Cleveland. RoS ZiPS sees him with six HRs, a total I would bump up with the playing time boost.
John Lannan – In his last 10 starts, Lannan is 5-2 with a 2.44 ERA but with only 21 Ks in 73.2 innings. I seriously question whether any pitcher can succeed long term with a strikeout rate this low but I believe he can do it for the remainder of the season. From a fantasy perspective it is difficult to advocate a pitcher who has virtually no chance to help in strikeouts but for some odd reason the guys near the top of the leaderboards in Ks are rarely available in trades or on the waiver wire. Lannan is a player who should not cost much who has the potential to help in ERA, WHIP and W.
C.J. Wilson – Usually I avoid mentioning relievers because this is one area where most people are watching the waiver wire like hawks. Yet Wilson has the closer’s role in Texas while Frank Francisco is on the DL and is owned in only 35 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Now Francisco is not expected out for long because of his bout with pneumonia but he has also had problems with tendinitis, so you never know. Wilson should be an immediate add if you set a daily lineup.
Exchange
Garrett Jones – You would have to be living under a rock to miss the slugging exploits of Jones, who has 10 HR in 88 ABs for the Pirates. That has led to some far out numbers, like a .761 SLG, a .432 ISO and a 1.140 OPS. But he also has a 34.5 percent HR/FB rate which will be a tad difficult to maintain going forward. Last year Jones looked like he was going to settle in for a long career as a AAAA slugger. No one doubts that he has power and can be a useful MLB player. But he has little chance of being a star and owners should see if he has any trade value in their league.
Johan Santana – When owners drafted Santana, they were expecting him to be one of the top starters in the game. He was great in April but has struggled to keep that pace since then. Santana has been very good but the production has not matched either the draft slot or the name value. He is 3-4 in his last seven games and has given up 15 runs despite two scoreless appearances. Santana closed 2008 with a great run and he has the ability to do that again. But owners owe it to themselves to explore his trade value and if he can return third-round level value, well that exceeds what Santana has produced so far in 2009.
Erick Aybar – In his last 17 games, Aybar is batting .471 with 16 RBIs, 13 R, and 3 SB. His trade value may never be higher. His BABIP checks in at .347, 30 points above his lifetime mark in the category. Aybar stole 32 bases in Triple-A in 2006 but has just 26 combined thefts between the majors and minors since then in two and a half seasons. And his lifetime .095 ISO tells you he is not likely to contribute any HR, either.
Randy Wells – It has been an impressive year so far for Wells, with 10 Quality Starts in 14 games. But I am concerned about him being able to maintain his current walk rate, which is under two per game. Also, in two full seasons at Triple-A, Wells’ strand rate was under 70 percent both times but so far this year it checks in at 78.9 percent. Add in a BABIP and a HR/FB rate both slightly below average and it adds up to a pitcher who could fall off some down the stretch.
Shane Victorino – He is unlikely to match last year’s totals in either HR or SB. Yet Victorino has been just as valuable a fantasy player because he is on pace to set career-highs in AVG, R and RBIs. Victorino’s BABIP of .342 is 24 points above his previous career best mark in the category. Also, he is walking more than he has previously in his career. Regression in BABIP would hurt him across the board.
The Washington Nationals’ pitching staff is essentially in disarray. While bailouts have become commonplace in the nation’s capital, the Nats’ rotation might need government assistance more than all other corporate entities combined. Washington’s starting corps could be considered a toxic asset; when a rapidly descending Scott Olsen may very well be your club’s best hope at cultivating an ace, something is seriously wrong.
While Washington’s compilation of semi-prospects and retreads posted a combined 4.97 starters’ ERA in 2008, there was one home-grown bright spot. John Lannan, a little-known 11th round selection out of Siena College in 2005, pieced together a solid rookie season. Lannan went from “that guy who broke Chase Utley’s hand” to one of the more effective young starters in the NL, posting a 3.91 ERA in 182 innings of work.
Never known for his overpowering stuff, Lannan mixed in five different offerings to opposing batters. He supplemented his soft 87.5 MPH fastball (thrown 60.1% of the time) with a 80.3 MPH slider (15.5%), 74.5 MPH curveball (12.4%), 80.9 MPH changeup (10.6%) and the occasional 86.5 MPH cutter (1.3%).
So, Lannan is a five-pitch lefty with a good rookie season under his belt. He should only get better, right? Well, not so fast.
Lannan did a very good job of keeping the ball on the ground (54.2 GB%), but his peripheral stats (5.79 K/9, 3.56 BB/9) do not match up with his ERA. On top of a mild K rate and ordinary control, Lannan benefitted from a .273 BABIP (11th-lowest among qualified starters).
He experienced unusually poor luck on flyballs (his HR/FB% of 15.2 was 3-4% higher than average), but we can use Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times to better gauge Lannan’s abilities. XFIP uses strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate (rooting out Lannan’s poor luck on flyballs) to give us a more accurate account of a pitcher’s controllable skills. Lannan’s XFIP was 4.47. That’s actually slightly below the NL average ERA of 4.43 for starting pitchers.
One might look at John Lannan and see a 24 year-old southpaw who just posted a sub-4 ERA season, and therefore might expect better things in 2009. However, Lannan’s finesse style and just average ability to paint the corners (his career minor league BB/9 is 3.51) portend to a good deal of regression in 2009. Lannan could use his eclectic repertoire and groundball tendencies to post an ERA somewhere in the mid-four’s, but he’s more mid-rotation material than future ace.