With the non-waiver trade deadline coming up tonight, the flurry of deals we’ve seen, the rash of injuries lately, not to mention your fantasy league’s trade deadline, it’s not easy to keep tabs on each and every player. Sometimes things just fall through the cracks. And since the catching position, all to often, goes unwatched and unnoticed unless you’re having blatant issues at the position, perhaps a general update piece will be helpful. Read the rest of this entry »
Yasmani Grandal, I hereby dub thee The Magic Man. Now you see me, now you don’t.
Raise your hand if you were one of the many who wasted valuable FAAB dollars and waiver priority to grab Grandal when word broke that he would be called-up to San Diego on Friday. As a Nick Hundley owner in a few two-catcher leagues, I certainly did. The 23-year old, Cuban-born backstop is supposed to be able to hit for both power and average and should eventually take over the starting job, possibly as early as this season, so when the news came out that he was on his way, the prudent thing to do was grab him. Read the rest of this entry »
Back in early April, we took a look at a few catcher prospects that you should have had on your radar, both as long-term keeper prospects and potential 2012 call-ups in case something went awry on the major league level. We’re a little more than a month past that first look and while none of them have set foot in the big leagues just yet, different aspects of their situations have changed and a re-visit seemed like a good idea. Are they any closer to a shot in the majors, and if so, how long before we see them? Read the rest of this entry »
The likelihood of the Texas Rangers signing Prince Fielder grew even slimmer on Friday when the team opted to take a cheaper route and sign Brad Hawpe to a minor league league deal. Hawpe, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, also received an invite to spring training and, if he makes the cut, is expected to provide insurance for incumbent first baseman Mitch Moreland, who is currently recovering from off season wrist surgery. Now the question remains…will Hawpe have any fantasy value in 2012?
If you’re one of those people who has a hard time justifying the use of a high draft choice on a catcher and you like to bargain shop, then perhaps San Diego Padres backstop Nick Hundley is a name you should consider this season. He’s not one to top many lists right now and between the mediocre stat lines and the power-suppressing ballpark he calls home, the 28 year old backstop has become much more of an afterthought in fantasy drafts. However, if you take a closer look into his numbers and the circumstances surrounding his career, there is definite reason to believe that there is growth potential on the horizon which could result in him being a possible breakout sleeper candidate in 2012.
Once again a fantasy freak is allowed out into the light, and, well, I feel the pressure to be… fantastic. But how better to represent what we’ve been doing on RotoGraphs than to continue a series that gets right at the heart of what FanGraphs’ beautiful numbers can do for you in fantasy? That’s right, we’re checking out players from our tiered ranking series that are likely to outperform their Average Draft Position (ADP) as determined by MockDraftCentral.com.
It’s a mouthful, but remember, in the words of the immortal Black Sheep, “You can get with this, or you can get with that, I think you’ll get with this, for this is where it’s at.” It’s all about choosing the right player at the right spot.
For example, Victor Martinez is a fine young man. He’ll probably hit twenty home runs and have a nice batting average. His runs and RBI should be elite for a catcher, given the lineup surrounding him and his home ballpark. His ADP (24.19) reflects all of these things by placing him at the end of the second round. You could get with this.
On the other hand, there’s Brian McCann, who is also a fine young catcher. The fans have him hitting a couple more home runs, though, probably because his ISO has been much steadier and more impressive (.183, .222, .205 since 2007) than Martinez has shown (.205, .086, .177 over the same time period). Of course, picking McCann may come with a little more risk in the batting average department. There is the matter of his .270 batting average in 2007 in some minds. But McCann had a sub-.300 BABIP that year for the only time in his career, despite also owning a .307 xBABIP that year. It looks like he’s at least a reasonably solid bet to give similar value to Martinez… and he’s going as much as two rounds later according to his ADP (42.37). Among the top-tiered catchers, this is where it’s at (for value).
Once the top three catchers go, the ADPs plunge into the 100s, and for good reason. Because of the way the average catcher is used, the top 12 catchers by at-bats averaged 490 at-bats compared to 586 average at-bats for the top 12 first basemen last year. That’s 16.4% fewer at-bats. So before you use any pick on a catcher, remember that he’s going to get 15% fewer chances than the average position player – and also that his poor batting average will be 15% less hurtful than a bad batting average on a player at a different position.
In the next tier, Miguel Montero and his emerging game make for a good value given his draft position (149.78). He’s shown a .173+ ISO three seasons running, and seems to have finally reigned in the strikeouts to a reasonable level (18.6% last year). He’s also twelve years younger than the more expensive Jorge Posada (116.53 ADP). Catcher-years can catch up to a catcher in his late thirties. (Catch that?)
I could certainly get with Kurt Suzuki (131.37 ADP), but Russell Martin is cheaper (137.89) and more likely to offer a handful of extra steals. In the end, I’m probably just going to bypass the lot of them and go for end-game sleepers like the always-solid never-exciting AJ Pierzynski (246.68). As commenter Bas noted on our Check the Position: Catcher piece, AJ and Suzuki have similar high-contact, low-walk-rate, medium-power approaches – why you would pay almost ten rounds more for Suzuki? Certainly not for those five steals.
Finally, a word for a deep league ADP value guy. John Baker was first made famous for his inclusion in Billy Beane’s wishlists in Money Ball, and won’t hurt you with his low ADP (318.62). Jesus Flores, on the other hand, has an ISO that’s going in the right direction and is even cheaper (332.92). Provided Flores is healthy, both are fine late-round additions in deep leagues.