Archive for Jim Thome

As Eric Seidman writes over in FanGraphs, Jim Thome heading to the Philadelphia Phillies on a one year, $1.25M contract is a good move in the real baseball world.  However, from a fantasy baseball perspective, it almost certainly closes the book on one of the game’s more prolific hitters at the turn of this century.  The 41 year old, lefty slugger may still have enough in the tank to make him a relevant power threat off the bench for the Phils, but for fantasy owners, the DH eligibility and the inconsistent at bats makes it very difficult to roster him.  He is waiver fodder, at best.

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One of the primary reasons that people give as to why they opt not to play fantasy baseball but are the first to form a fantasy football league is the sheer length of the season.  Six months is apparently two months too long for them.  However, those of us that are able to cope with the time frame know the real answer; the amount of work it takes to, not only prep for the season, but to stay active and alert all season long can be a testament to one’s patience, work ethic and mental endurance.

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It’s summer, it’s the weekend, and you ain’t got stuff to do. Well, maybe you should check that your lineups are set and your bench doesn’t have dead wood on it before you head out into the sun. You owe your fantasy teams that much at least.

Chris Perez, Cleveland (20% owned)
It’s your last chance to speculate on saves in Cleveland. The reasons to think Perez will be the eventual winner of the closer role are legion. He’s younger than Kerry Wood on a bad team looking to the future. He can be a better pitcher than Kerry Wood. He’s cheaper than Kerry Wood. Other teams are interested in trading for Kerry Wood. This is not to say that Perez is perfect. You’d like to see a lot more strikeouts than 7.60 per nine, a lot fewer walks than 4.72 per nine, and more groundballs than 32.6%. HIs 5.18 xFIP is really worrisome, actually, and you can see he’s been lucky (.236 BABIP, 82.1% LOB). On the other hand, his strikeout and walk rates have been much better in the past, and he does own a closer’s arsenal of strikeout stuff normally. He’s one of the better saves-speculation pickups out there, if not the best.

Jim Thome, Minnesota (5% owned)
On April 19th, Brian Joura big-upped Thome in his Waiver Wire piece. On May 19th, I reminded y’all. It’s another month later, so it’s time for your monthly Thome update. The most recent news has Justin Morneau hitting the DL with concussion issues and opening up a spot for Thome to play regularly. In OBP leagues, that’s all you had to say, because Thome is still elite in OBP (.372) and power (.287). If your league uses batting average, you’ll have to give him a longer think because he’ll never again post a nice batting average with those strikeout and contact rates.

Lorenzo Cain, Milwaukee (Yet to be added to Yahoo database)
With Doug Davis hitting the DL, the Brew crew decided to call up long-time prospect Cain to help man the outfield. There are bushels of caveats to mention in Cain’s case. First, he’s been around a while, and it took him five years to get through the Brewer’s minor league system, which is not usually a positive. Second, the twenty-four year old was never once dominating, as his .782 career and .846 full-year peak minor league OPSes can attest. He’s also pretty much a speed-only guy, judging from his career minor league .416 SLG and .124 ISO. He’s more of a slight speedster (6’2″ 200 lbs, 123 stolen bases in 572 minor league games at a 78% success rate). He was also rated “The Tumbler” by Marc Hulet because of strikeout issues last year. The last notch against him is that the Milwaukee outfield is still crowded… for now. Corey Hart is rumored to be leaving town soon, and deep league speed-starved managers could do worse for a speculative pickup here. At least Cain is coming off his best year as an amateur, hitting .326/.407/.439 combined so far in 2010. He also cut his strikeouts this year (down to 20.7% from 24.1%), so he’s going well right now.

Last week we talked about Felipe Lopez coming back and Brendan Ryan struggling. We recommended picking up Lopez because he would probably take the starting shortstop job. Now that he’s back, and it’s looking like that’s the case, we’re the ones looking stupid for not having followed our own advice. And yes, that’s the royal ‘we.’ On to this week’s recommendations.

Casey Blake (47% owned)
Bet you didn’t know that Casey Blake was 36 years old, did you? The fact that he debuted old (30 years old) isn’t good news for the bell curve of his career. We do know that players that debut later usually leave the league earlier, too. That seems to be the case whether that’s because players that debut later need to be closer to their peak in order to be MLB-quality, and therefore drop out earlier as they age because they fall from that peak level, or whether it’s for some other reason. Well, Blake has had a decidedly okay run, but things aren’t looking great. He’s got a six-year low in ISO and a career high in strikeout rate. It’s not luck that’s keeping him down, at least not batted-ball luck – his BABIP is .291. Instead, he’s seeing a career-low of pitches in the zone and swinging at a career high of pitches outside the zone. His contact rate is at a career low. Hmmm… why would you want to pick him up again? Well, because .260-hitting corner infielders with a little bit of power don’t just grow on trees. In certain leagues, he’ll be useful. In just such a league of mine he was dropped. Just don’t go trading your starting 3B because you picked him up is all I’m saying.

Jim Thome (5% owned)
Thome’s ownership levels are surprisingly low for a guy that’s blasted five home runs in only 75 at-bats. The good news is that he’s still his old three-true-outcome self – walking (17.6%), striking out (27.6%) and jacking dongers (.267 ISO). Though he’s also seeing a career-low pitches in the zone, the rest of his swing rate statistics are mostly in line with his career. It seems that he’s in a crowded house, but 75 at bats over 39 games is on pace for about 311 at-bats, and if he keeps hitting home runs, he’ll get more time against righties, against whom he’s done well this year (.280/.438/.600) and career (.294/.429/.614). If you have a space on your bench and can be vigilant about who is starting in Minny on a daily basis, Thome will collect you some home runs for sure.

Marc Rzepczynski (1% owned)
Maybe this is my ‘hunch,’ but Rzep/Scrabble just made his first rehab start today and might join the Jays within a week. Then again, he gave up nine runs in 2 1/3 innings in that re-hab start and Brandon Morrow and Brett Cecil are enough a part of the future and have shown enough this year that they should keep their jobs even when Scrabble returns. So that leaves Dana Eveland as the crux of the argument. Certainly his ERA (4.98) doesn’t argue for his inclusion in the rotation, and his secondary stats are even worse (4.15 K/9, 5.19 BB/9, 5.58 xFIP). Doesn’t seem like too much is in Scrabble’s way. As long as he can find his old groundballing (51.2% last year) and strikeout (8.8 K/9 last year) ways, he’ll be a much better solution. Hopefully the Jays will also see things this way.

Ownership numbers from Yahoo Fantasy Sports.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Burke Badenhop, Florida Marlins (owned in 4% of Yahoo! leagues)

Part of the haul received from the Tigers in the Miguel Cabrera trade, Badenhop had a surprisingly effective rookie season in 2009, with both his FIP and xFIP below his 3.75 ERA. Additionally, Badenhop posted a 7.13 K/9 along with a 2.09 GB/FB ratio in 72 IP for the Marlins. In five games so far this year for Florida, Badenhop is bettering all of those marks. He has allowed just 1 ER in 9.2 IP, has 8 SO and a 2.17 GB/FB ratio. He is a late-inning reliever for the Marlins and has already picked up a save this season. Bladenhop should be next in line for Saves should anything happen with Leo Nunez and has the makings of a valuable setup man for owners who like to stock up on non-closers.

Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds (owned in 8% of Yahoo! leagues)

The eighth player selected in the 2009 Draft, Leake advanced to the majors without pitching a single game in the minors. He did pitch in the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a 1.37 ERA with 15 Ks, 3 BB and 20 hits allowed in 20 IP. So far in the majors, Leake has pitched Quality Starts in both of his outings and has an impressive 2.63 ERA. Walks have been a problem (12 in 13.2 IP), but that is not his M.O. In his junior year at Arizona State, Leake issued just 24 BB in 142 IP. Both his FIP and xFIP are significantly higher than his ERA, as Leake has a low BABIP (.265), a high strand rate (82.6%) and has yet to allow a HR. But he has a spot in the rotation and has room to improve with his walk rate. Leake is not overpowering, so do not expect much help in Ks. But he should be able to take the ball every five days and give his team a chance to win. Leake is a mid-rotation (#3/4) starter available on the waiver wire and should be added in most leagues.

Jim Thome, Minnesota Twins (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

The past two years Thome has been a low AVG slugger and things are shaping up the same way in 2010. He sports a .318 ISO, which speaks as much about his SLG (.545) as it does his AVG (.227). Currently, Thome is in a platoon situation, having just 2 PA versus LHP. That is a situation likely to continue the rest of the season, but one not necessarily much of a handicap for a player who will turn 40 later this year. RoS ZiPS projects him to hit 18 more HR this season, a total not many people on the waiver wire can match.

In the “post-steroid” era, the idea is that careers will be shorter and production in a player’s late thirties will decline rapidly. Without conjecturing about the steroid use of these two older men, we can take a look at the numbers and see two guys that are seemingly sustaining decent levels of production despite their advancing years. Their last hurrahs should even continue – provided they stay off the DL (or the Pavano as those in New York may call it).

Jim Thome – Really, the only piece of bad news when it comes to the 38-year-old Thome is that he’s striking out more than he has since 2001. Striking out doesn’t do wonders for a man’s batting average – and Thome’s .256 batting average might scare some people off. But you don’t own Thome for his batting average, since it has been in decline for three straight years and his career number sits at .278 anyway.

Will the power continue? That is the big question. Amazingly, some of his secondary power numbers are above his career norms. Check his home run per fly ball percentage (30.0% this year, 27.8% career) and his line drive percentage (21.1% this year, 20.3% career). The only worry is that he’s hitting a high number of infield flies (12.5%), and the last time he cracked double digits in that department was his disastrous 2005 campaign with the Phillies (.207/.360/.352).

With everything else in line with his career numbers, Thome looks pretty safe. Keep an eye on his infield flies and as long as they trend toward his norms, you’ve got a safe geezer on your squad. Let him collect the long balls as long as he’s in uniform.

Gary Sheffield – Sheffield’s case is less cut and dry than Thome’s and his decline has been more precipitous over the past couple years. After his .225/.326/.400 disasterpiece last year, the Tigers had seen enough and let the 40-year-old go. They did this despite the fact that their current DH, Marcus Thames, has a .765 lifetime versus righties, compared to Sheff’s .898.

No matter. It seems that Manuel’s philosophy of running Sheffield out there until he found what he had lost worked. Now his starting right fielder is boasting a more than decent .270/.390/.482 and fantasy owners are wondering if he can continue his success.

First, the bad news. Despite his rocket bat speed, he’s never been a good line drive hitter (17.2% career) and he’s on a three-year decline that has exacerbated the situation. His current percentage (12.4%) may not sustain his current .283 BABIP, meaning his ZiPS RoS projection might be spot-on in terms of his batting average (.242). Certainly, the ‘old’ way of projecting BABIP (line drive rate plus .12) would suggest that he’s in for a decline in the batting average department.

One thing that the old method does not account for, however, is speed. His current 4.5 speed score puts him in speedy company – right ahead of Alfonso Soriano and Emmanuel Burriss. Normally, his 53.1% groundball percentage (the highest of his recent career) would be seen as a negative. But perhaps Sheffield is relying on his decent speed and actually benefiting from the increased grounder rate.

One this is for certain – he’s not your typical aging slugger. After all, he stole 22 bases just two years ago. Here’s thinking that his speed will help him beat his batting average projections from here on out, and that Sheff will keep cooking at this rate.