Archive for Jhonny Peralta

Coming into the 2009 season, the Cleveland Indians had to feel pretty confident about Jhonny Peralta. After all, the 6-2, 210 pound Dominican Republic native had averaged 2.75 Wins Above Replacement over the 2005-2008 seasons, including a 3.9 mark in 2008.

His once-leaden leather was showing improvement, as was his bat. While not scaling to the heights of his 2005 season (+25.1 Batting Runs), Peralta improved from -10.6 Batting Runs in 2006 to +2.7 in 2007 and +10.8 in 2008. Jhonny’s ISO rebounded from .128 in ’06 to .160 in ’07 and .197 in ’08. Entering his peak years (Jhonny turned 27 in May), Peralta looked like a good bet to turn in another above average offensive campaign:

2009 pre-season projections:

CHONE: .272/.343/.452
Oliver: .268/.328/.435
ZiPS: .267/.333/.440

Instead, Peralta has been an offensive drag. Through 250 plate appearances, Jhonny owns a sickly .252/.331/.338 line. His .086 ISO is way below his .162 career average. To put that figure into context, the immortal Willie Bloomquist has out-ISO’d Peralta by 11 points. Amazingly, Jhonny and Willie are in a heated race to see how homers more, with Peralta holding a slim two-to-one edge.

So what in the name of Chief Wahoo is going on here? Peralta is showing similar plate discipline, with a 9.8 BB% (9% career average) and an Outside-Swing Percentage of 24% (23.5% career average), so he’s not hacking his way to a sub-.670 OPS. Jhonny’s 25.7% K rate is also near his career norm (25.7%) and his BABIP is .331, so it’s not as though a bunch of balls put in play are finding gloves.

Peralta’s problem? He’s chopping the ball into the dirt like never before and getting jammed more frequently:

2009: 57 GB%, 26.7 GB%, 11.4 IF/FB%
Career Avg: 46.9 GB%, 33.5 FB%, 5.7 IF/FB%

Jhonny holds the 8th-highest groundball rate among all batters, sandwiched between a pair of middle infielders sporting new duds. However, Howie Kendrick (Salt Lake Bees) and Emmanuel Burriss (Fresno Grizzlies) probably aren’t too thrilled to be touring the Pacific Coast League.

Peralta has struggled badly with the heat in ’09, with a -1.12 run value per 100 fastballs seen. That ranks as the 15th-worst mark in the majors, and is well below his +0.49 career average. Jhonny has been an automatic out when pulling the ball this season (stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference):

2008: Pulled-RHB: .461 BAVG/.737 SLG (101 OPS+; one percent better than the league average in this category)

2009: Pulled-RHB: .216 BAVG/.333 SLG (-6 OPS+)

Not only is Peralta putting the ball in the air less often, but the flyballs he has hit have been about as threatening as a newborn kitten:

2008: .289 BAVG/.792 SLG (167 OPS+)
2009: .200 BAVG/.350 SLG (52 OPS+)

Peralta’s increased groundball rate and infield/fly percentage suggest that he’s a little tentative at the dish right now. He has swung at fewer pitches within the strike zone (67.7%, compared to 73% in 2008) while making contact with those pitches less often (84 Z-Contact% this season, 86.1% in 2008). If Jhonny is going to out-homer Wee Willie Bloomquist, he might have to let ‘er rip with more conviction.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Jermaine Dye and trade Johnny Cueto last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

John Maine – Current owners may look at his .252 BABIP and 4.41 FIP and see a sell candidate. But Maine was terrible the first three games of the season and has quietly been a very effective pitcher since then. In his last seven games, Maine is 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA. Linear Weights shows his fastball, which was such a good pitch in both 2006 and 2007, has rebounded into positive numbers despite a slight decrease in velocity.

Jorge Cantu – After a hot start to the season, Cantu really struggled in May and now his updated ZiPS shows him falling fall short of last year’s HR and R totals. A hand injury that he refused to come out of the lineup for hurt his numbers, especially early in the month. But Cantu has hit a solid .286 over his last 14 games and he could be a great pickup if his power numbers rebound as the hand improves.

Jhonny Peralta – Here is another player whose numbers have been dragged down due to injury. After a strong first two weeks of the season, Peralta injured his left elbow. The injury sapped his power and helped his average fall below .200 in early May. But in his last 21 games, Peralta is batting .347, albeit still with no power. The most attractive thing about Peralta as a fantasy player is his 20-HR power. RoS ZiPS sees Peralta hitting 11 HR the rest of the season.

Gavin Floyd – A 17-game winner a year ago, Floyd was overvalued by many coming into the season. But it seems that he has reached the point now where he is an undervalued commodity. Floyd’s strikeout rate is up over 1.5 per nine from a year ago and his FIP is actually lower now than it was in 2008 (4.14 opposed to 4.77). But he is being hurt by baserunners, as his BB rate is up and his BABIP sits at .335 compared to a .296 lifetime mark. But in his last three outings, Floyd has allowed just seven walks in 23 IP. Improved control along with a little better luck on balls in play could add up to a big improvement in Floyd’s numbers.

Nolan Reimold – The Baltimore rookie has provided some nice power, with five home runs in his first 17 games. While that pace may not be sustainable, the power is not a huge surprise, as Reimold hit 25 HR last year in Double-A. Reimold has made good contact since returning from a strained oblique in 2007. He will not hurt you in average and could be a cheap source of power as he is owned in only 5.1 percent of ESPN leagues.

Trade

Nate McLouth – An All-Star in 2008, McLouth came into the season with an ADP of 59 as owners anticipated another 25-25 season and hoped for 30-30. So far, McLouth has been hitting for power but he has been disappointing in the other categories. He looks like a nice acquisition target, as his BABIP is a dismal .254 so far. But his updated ZiPS shows him hitting just .256 with 22 HR and 20 SB. McLouth’s first half of 2008, when he had 19 HR and a .542 SLG, is looking like a career outlier. His SLG was .459 in 2007, .426 in the second half of 2008 and is .451 this season.

Kevin Millwood – He is in the top 10 in the American League with a 3.23 ERA but that comes along with a 5.05 FIP. His .256 BABIP is 50 points below his career average and his 83.9 percent strand rate is unlikely to last. Adding to the worries is his K/9, which sits at 4.96, down from 6.67 last year and his career average of 7.09.

Raul Ibanez – An extremely reliable fantasy performer the past seven seasons, Ibanez is off to a fantastic start. CBS Sports lists him as the fifth-best fantasy player so far while RotoTimes has him at number four. If you can sell high, now would be the time. Ibanez is just not this good and he has absolutely feasted on the pitching of the last-place Nationals. Due to a quirk of the schedule, Ibanez and the Phillies have played 12 games versus Washington and no more than six against anyone else. In those 12 games versus the Nationals and their MLB-worst 6.16 R/G staff, Ibanez is hitting .440 with 6 HR, 18 RBI and 15 R. His play against Washington has raised his AVG alone 23 points. Ibanez won’t see that pitching staff again until September 8th.

Doug Davis – He has only posted two wins but has been a strong contributor in the other three SP categories. But a 4.78 FIP suggests Davis has been more than a little lucky with his 3.65 ERA. After posting a 2.91 ERA and a 1.176 WHIP in April, Davis had a 4.37 ERA and a 1.371 WHIP in May.

Mark DeRosa – The Indians are allegedly shopping DeRosa and so should you. Since he qualifies at three positions, DeRosa can still be a useful fantasy player and should have trade value. The updated ZiPS shows him with numbers that come close to his 2008 ones, but that seems overly optimistic. DeRosa did so much of his damage during his career year last year at Wrigley Field, where he batted .316/.404/.514. His road numbers last year of .254/.347/.448 look remarkably like what he has posted so far in 2009.

The shortstop position in fantasy baseball as we head towards the 2009 season has three players in the top tier and around 10 players fighting for position in the second tier. One of the interesting players is Indians shortstop Jhonny Peralta. In three of the past four years, Peralta has delivered good numbers in home runs, runs and RBIs. Last year he led all shortstops in RBIs and finished third in both runs and HRs. Unfortunately, he contributes nothing in steals and his average has not been a plus since 2005.

Last year, Peralta’s numbers benefited by him putting more balls in play. Both his BB% and SO% decreased as he set career highs in five plate discipline metrics. He had 17 more plate appearances than 2007 but 51 more balls where he made contact. Peralta’s BABIP was his lowest since becoming a full-time player in 2005 but he posted his second-best fantasy season, going .276-23-89-104-3.

A switch in the batting order also helped Peralta’s 2008 numbers. Last year he spent much of the year in the cleanup spot after hitting fifth, sixth or seventh most of the year in 2007. As the Indians did not add a slugger in the off-season, Peralta still figures to hit in the heart of the order, which should keep his RBI numbers high.

Peralta should be a pretty good bet to match last year’s numbers. What is harder to say is where fantasy owners should target him. One ADP report has him at #83, which is at the end of the seventh round. Another report has him at #117, which is in the middle of the 10th round. This is a pretty big discrepancy, but perfectly reasonable given how bunched up the second tier of shortstops actually are.

One of the keys to being a successful fantasy player is understanding the ebb and flow of your draft. Even if you rank Peralta as the fourth-best shortstop in fantasy, is there any reason to draft him in the seventh round if J.J. Hardy, Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Young, Stephen Drew and Derek Jeter are all still available?

Peralta should put up good fantasy numbers once again in 2009. But he is just one of many middle-class options at shortstop. You should feel good if you wind up with Peralta as your starting shortstop. Just remember not to reach or overpay for the privilege.