Archive for Jeremy Hermida

Earlier this decade, OF Jeremy Hermida was pegged for stardom. But following yesterday’s trade to the Boston Red Sox for LHP’s Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez, Hermida may well have completed his descent from franchise building block to bench warmer.

Florida snagged the lefty hitter with the 11th overall selection in the 2002 amateur draft. Despite his youth, Hermida possessed exceptional polish for a high school bat. The Georgia prep product’s 2002 and 2003 seasons in the minors were modestly productive, as he displayed superb strike-zone control but little extra-base pop.

Hermida began to tap into his power in 2004, batting .297/.377/.441 in the pitcher-friendly High-A Florida State League. But it was his thunderous 2005 campaign that made him perhaps the most coveted position prospect in the minors. As a 21 year-old in the AA Southern League, Hermida hammered pitchers for a .293/.457/.518 triple slash. He drew a walk in a jaw-dropping 21.9% of his PA, while popping 18 homers and posting a .225 ISO.

Getting his first extended look in the majors in 2006, Hermida didn’t hit the ground running. Limited by a hip flexor injury, he compiled a modest .310 wOBA in 348 PA. Hermida rarely found the gaps or lifted one over the fence (.117 ISO), but his trademark plate discipline was present. He walked 9.7% of the time, offering at just 19% of pitches tossed outside the strike zone (25% MLB avg).

Hermida appeared to arrive in 2007. In 484 PA for the Fish, he raked to the tune of a .372 wOBA. Hermida’s BABIP was very high at .356, but he walked 9.9% of the time, with a 22.2 O-Swing%. And, he made major strides in the power department. Hermida slugged 18 round-trippers, with a .205 ISO.

Considering Hermida’s age and minor league track record, he appeared poised to bust out in 2008. Instead, Hermida’s once-pristine plate approach eroded.

Jeremy chased nearly 28% of pitches thrown out of the zone. Compounding matters, he took a cut at fewer pitches within the strike zone (59.6%, compared to about 64% the previous two seasons; the MLB avg is 65-66%). Swinging at more pitches in the dirt and taking more offerings over the plate-that’s not exactly what one would have expected from a guy who resembled a Brian Giles clone as a prospect. Hermida’s wOBA dipped to .321.

In 2009, Hermida did a better job of working the count. His O-Swing% fell back down to 23.9%, though his Z-Swing% remained low at 61.7%. The 25 year-old’s walk rate climbed to 11.5%. Hermida experienced a power outage, however:

Hermida’s ISO, by year

Since that high-water mark in 2007, Hermida’s ISO has plummeted: .157 in ’08, and a .133 figure in ’09. His HR/FB rate was 15.7% in 2007, 13% in 2008 and just 10.1% in 2009.

Hermida’s performance against left-handed pitching has taken a turn for the worse over the past few seasons:

Hermida’s wOBA vs. LHP, by year

Baseball-Reference keeps a stat called sOPS+, which compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average. 100 is average, above 100 is above-average for batters, and below 100 is below-average for hitters. Here are Hermida’s sOPS+ figures vs. LHP since 2007:

2007: 128
2008: 108
2009: 72

I would caution against reading too much into platoon splits, as how a batter performs overall is more informative than just how he does against LHP or RHP.

Hermida’s BABIP against lefties was .359 in ’07, .293 in ’08 and just .233 in ’09. That sort of thing can happen when your sample size is about 120 PA per year. There’s not much to suggest that Hermida is good against lefties, but he probably won’t continue to look like Tony Pena Jr. against southpaws, either.

26 in January, Hermida has reached a career crossroads. Boston snagged the arbitration-eligible outfielder on the cheap, hoping that there’s still some vestige of that top prospect left.

From a fantasy standpoint, the swap does damage to whatever value Hermida had. It’s doubtful that he was draft-worthy in most leagues to begin with. But the Red Sox certainly do not figure to enter the 2010 season guaranteeing ample PA to a guy who has been just a smidge above replacement-level the past two seasons.

Stock Up

Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners

By now, everyone is well aware of Gutierrez’s Road Runner act in center field (the former Indian holds a +20.9 UZR/150 figure in 2009). But how many people realize that the 26 year-old has turned in a quality offensive season as well? Gutierrez owns a .352 wOBA, with 12 home runs and a .295/.355/.460 line in 335 PA. That translates to +8.2 Batting Runs, which ranks in the top 10 among center fielders. Combine the sweet range with an above-average bat, and you have a guy who quietly ranks 2nd in Wins Above Replacement in center field (3.5 WAR).

Brett Anderson, Athletics

Originally a 2nd-round pick by the D-Backs back in 2006, Anderson is most often noted for his polish and four-pitch mix. But he has as nearly as much upside as any young arm in the game as well. During his rookie year, the 21 year old lefty has punched out 6.61 batters per nine innings while issuing 2.36 BB/9, good for a 4.23 FIP. Equipped with a 92 MPH fastball, 83 MPH slider, 77 MPH curveball and an 83 MPH changeup, Anderson has placed 51.2% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.3 % MLB average).

If anything, those numbers underrate Anderson’s work. He posted a 2.0 K/BB ratio in April and 1.86 in May, but improved to 3.57 in June and 6.00 in July. Take a look at the velocity readings on Anderson’s two most utilized pitches (fastball and slider) over the course of the season, along with their Runs/100 pitches value:

April: 91 MPH fastball (-0.47 Runs/100 pitches), 82.7 MPH slider (+1.62)
May: 91.4 MPH fastball (-3.32), 82.4 MPH slider (-0.63)
June: 92.6 MPH fastball (-1.73), 83.8 MPH slider (+4.41)
July: 94.5 MPH fastball (+4.09), 85.6 MPH slider (+7.03)

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Also a 21 year-old southpaw, Kershaw has mauled hitters for 8.78 K/9 in 2009. With a searing 94 MPH fastball (+1.5 runs/100, fourth among starters) and a Looney Tunes curveball (+1.79), Kershaw has managed to thrive in the majors despite walking 5.06 hitters per nine innings, with a first pitch strike percentage (52.9%) that’s about 5 percentage points below the MLB average. While better control and a third offering to keep from losing the strike zone vs. righties stand between Kershaw and acedom, it’s frightening to think that he can already dominate despite being so far from fully developed.

Seth Smith, Rockies

Smith has found himself in the starting lineup often as of late, at the expense of Carlos Gonzalez. The 26 year-old lefty hitter holds a career .297/.392/.495 line in 329 major league PA, and ZiPS calls for a .298/.369/.470 triple-slash for the rest of the 2009 season. A disciplined hitter (17.6 outside swing%, compared to the 25% MLB average), Smith can be a nice asset to fantasy owners. He’s not well-known and likely needs to be seated against tougher lefty pitching (his career minor league line vs. LHP is a patient-but-punchless .276/.360/.385), but Smith holds value in NL-only leagues and deep mixed leagues. Just keep an eye on the scheduled starter for the opposition, as he’ll likely only be plugged in against righties.

Roy Oswalt, Astros

It’s hard to believe, but Oswalt is now in his 9th season in the majors. Sometimes, I get the feeling that Houston’s ace doesn’t quite get the level of attention he deserves. While he’s never been the best pitcher in baseball, he consistently ranks among the top 25. The 31 year-old righty is just a pitching metronome, steadily humming along. 2009 is no different: Oswalt holds a 3.77 FIP, with 7.01 K/9 and 2.24 BB/9. His overall contact rate is down a tick (from 82.2% to 81.1%), while his percentage of contact within the zone has fallen from 88.1% in 2008 to 84.4% this season (87.8% MLB average). He has been at his best in July, with 17 K’s and just 2 free passes in 23 frames.

Stock Down

Jeremy Hermida, Marlins

Hermida is a exasperating player to watch. In the minors, he looked like a Brian Giles, as a lefty stick with exceptional plate discipline (.398 OBP, 18.5 BB%). After a bumpy beginning in the majors (.310 wOBA in 2006), Hermida posted a .372 wOBA as a 23 year-old in 2007. But instead of building upon that, Jeremy managed just a .321 wOBA in 2008, as his once-pristine plate discipline eroded (27.8 outside-swing% in ’08, compared to the 25.4% big league Avg).

He hasn’t fished at quite as many outside offerings this year (24 outside-swing%, with a 3 percent increase in walk rate). But, Hermida continues to hit more like a middle infielder than a corner outfielder. His ISO was .205 in 2007, but fell to .157 in ’08 and checks in at just .140 in ’09. He’s “only” 25, but Hermida just does not look like an everyday player at this point. A plodding outfielder (career -9.8 UZR/150) with platoon issues (career. 236/.316/.378 vs. LHP) who only pops the occasional double? Is that really all there is here?

Adam LaRoche, Pirates

An impending free agent, the elder LaRoche is doing the Pirates no favors in the club’s quest to place him in another uniform. On the positive side, the 29 year-old lefty batter has drawn walks at a career-high clip (11.5 BB%), while decreasing his first-pitch strike% for the third straight season (from 60.9% in ’07, 58.1 in ’08 and 55% this year; the MLB average is 58%).

On the other hand, LaRoche’s ISO (.193) has dipped from his .230 mark in 2008, and he has a .327 wOBA that just doesn’t stand out at all at first base. LaRoche clearly isn’t a poor player, but he’s just another face in the crowd at baseball’s most powerful position. The former Brave is a career .269/.338/.486 hitter; the average first baseman is batting .276/.362/.484 in 2009. There just aren’t many clubs who can look at that production and say, “that constitutes an upgrade for us.”

Trevor Cahill, Athletics

While fellow rookie Anderson is quickly figuring out the majors, Cahill is scuffling. The 21 year-old remains a fantastic young arm, and his struggles shouldn’t be entirely unexpected considering his occasional control problems in the minors (3.7 BB/9). But it’s clear that Cahill has a ways to go. He has whiffed only 4.11 hitters per nine frames, while showing neither sharp control (3.93 BB/9) nor worm-burning tendencies (47.3 GB%).

While in the minors, Cahill was noted for possessing knockout breaking pitches. Baseball America called described a “79-81 MPH knuckle-curve, a swing-and-miss pitch with hard downward movement” as well as “a low-80’s slider with cutter-like action.” In the show, Cahill has lacked trust in his breaking stuff. Trevor has tossed his curve less than 4% of the time, while using the slider about 6 percent. Both have been crunched (-1.86 runs/100 for the curve, -2.19 for the slider) in a small sample. I wonder if he tossed a few breakers that got hammered early on, and then went into “survival mode” and basically scrapped those pitches.

A.J. Burnett, Yankees

On the surface, Burnett’s first year in the Bronx appears to be going swimmingly (8-4 record, 3.81 ERA). However, his FIP is a less-shiny 4.71. A.J. has handed out far too many BB’s, with 4.61 walks per nine innings in 2009. His K rate is also down, from the mid-nine’s in 2007 and 2008 to 8.1 per nine this year. A .283 BABIP and a strand rate (79.5%) that’s about 8 percent above his career average have helped him stave off a climb in ERA to this point, but he’s going to have to sharpen his control. Perhaps noting Burnett’s wildness, opposing batters have swung at fewer pitches outside of the zone (24.3% in ’08, 20.7% in ’09).

Mike Pelfrey, Mets

The 6-7 sinkerballer has generated grounders at a 53.7% clip this year (up from 49.6% in 2008), but it’s hard to say Pelfrey has made a whole lot of progress this season. His K rate has dropped from 4.93 per nine innings in ’08 to 4.72 in 2009, while his walk rate has increased from 2.87 per nine to 3.23. Pelfrey has located just 46.6% of his pitches within the strike zone. Ironically, the former Shocker has seen his fastball effectiveness drop (-0.25 runs/100 pitches in 2009, +0.82 in ’08) just as his much-maligned breaking stuff has perked up (+0.91 for the slider, +1.68 for the curve).

Outfielder Jeremy Hermida was the object of scouting and sabermetric admiration as his climbed up the Florida Marlins’ farm system. With a silky-smooth left-handed swing and tremendous plate discipline, Hermida frequently adorned top prospect lists from Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. In fact, BA ranked the 6-3, 210 pounder as the 4th-best prospect in the minors in 2006, with BP valuing him as the 2nd-best talent down on the farm. His .284/.398/.436 career minor league line left something to be desired in the power department, but Hermida appeared to answer those questions with a monster .293/.457/.518 showing at AA Carolina in 2005.

Fresh off of smoking the Southern League, Hermida would have a scalding cup of coffee with the Marlins to end the ’05 season, batting .293/.383/.634 in 47 PA. Baseball Prospectus 2006 was smitten, writing that “if he stops he is he’s going to be a fine player, but if he develops along the normal curve he could be Bondsian.” Talk about high praise.

Despite the hype, 2006 would actually turn out to be something of a lost season for Hermida. He battled a hip flexor injury and never seemed fully healthy, batting just .251/.332/.368 in 348 PA. Hermida drew walks at a 9.7% clip, but without power (.117 Isolated Power) and with a rather high strikeout rate (22.8 K%). Still, he was just 22 years of age, and figured to improve significantly once he was healed up.

Hermida’s 2007 campaign went far more smoothly, as he hit a robust .296/.369/.501. His ISO jumped all the way up to .205, and he retained a solid walk rate, drawing a free pass 9.9% of the time. However, Hermida’s K rate did climb to 24.5%, and his .356 BABIP was pretty high. Given Hermida’s line drive rate (20.7%), we would have expected his BABIP to come in around .327 (the formula for expected BABIP is LD% + .120; .207 + .120= .327). If we take that into account, his line “should” have been about .267/.340/.472. That took some of the air out of Hermida’s season, but that still served as a significant improvement over the previous year’s work.

As a 24 year old in 2008, Hermida figured to build upon his ’07 showing, perhaps making good on the promise that his former top prospect status entailed. Instead, he took a step backward. Hermida wasn’t terrible, mind you, but his .249/.323/.406 line was roundly mediocre. The drop in his batting average was expected (when you whiff that often, you’re not going to hit .300 for an extended period of time), but his walk rate dipped to 8.7% and his ISO fell down to .157, basically splitting the difference between his punchless 2006 and powerful 2007. His already-high strikeout rate climbed to 27.5% as well.

Perhaps the most troubling aspect of Hermida’s down year was the continued erosion of his once-pristine strike-zone judgment. Noted for his take-and-rake style in the minors, Hermida has progressively become more liberal in terms of chasing bad balls out of the strike zone:

Hermida’s Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%), 2006-2008

2006: 19%
2007: 22.2%
2008: 27.8%

In addition to chasing more pitches out of the zone, Hermida also swung at fewer strikes this past season. His Z-Swing% dipped from 64.2% in 2007 to 59.6% in 2008. As he is getting older, Hermida is swinging at more balls and taking more strikes. That’s an inauspicious combination.

So, just what sort of player is Jeremy Hermida? Is he the Brian Giles clone that his minor league dossier suggests, or is he going to continue to disappoint? Baseball Prospectus 2008 offered an interesting (and insidious) possible career path for Hermida. Per PECOTA, Hermida’s most comparable player is Ben Grieve. For those of you who don’t remember, Grieve was a another big, left-handed batter who received plenty of prospect love for his patient approach. However, Grieve’s career quickly faded to black after he won the 1998 AL Rookie of the Year Award, as prohibitively high strikeout rates and mid-range power got the best of him. There are a number of similarities between Hermida and Grieve:

Jeremy Hermida

HT: 6-3 WT: 210
Career Minor League Line: .284/.398/.436, 18.5 BB%, 22K%, .152 ISO
Major League Line: .267/.342/.436, 9.5 BB%, 25.4 K%, .170 ISO

Ben Grieve

HT: 6-4 WT: 230
Career Minor League Line: .302/.407/.484, 16.9BB%, 19.8K%, .182 ISO
Major League Line: .269/.367/.442, 12.7 BB%, 24.4K%, .173 ISO

I know that it’s probably a little unfair to compare Hermida (25 in January) and his major league line thus far to Grieve’s entire line of work in the big leagues, but Grieve’s career was essentially over by the time he was 26.

None of this is to say that Hermida’s career is doomed; this is just one possible path for his development. Still, there are a lot of striking similarities between the two players, and the Marcel projection system does not foresee much of any improvement, forecasting a mild .271/.348/.440 line for 2009. Fantasy owners will want to use caution regarding Hermida, lest they suffer a Griev(e)ous fate as another top prospect falls short of expectations.