Archive for Jeremy Bonderman

Enjoy the long weekend even more by picking these two under-the-radar players…

Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers (owned in six percent of Yahoo leagues)

The 27-year-old entered the season as a huge question mark, all but forgotten after missing most of the 2008 and 2009 campaigns following surgery to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. But happily, Bonderman has made a strong return showing in 2010. In 47.2 innings pitched, he has 8.12 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 and a 3.97 xFIP.

He’s not the same power pitcher of years past — Bonderman is averaging 89.2 MPH with his fastball, down three to four ticks from his peak velocity. His slider, once a mid-80’s breaker, now averages 82.1 MPH. Bonderman has a 37.5 GB% in 2010, compared to a career 46.4 GB%.

Despite the velocity decline, he has nonetheless baited batters into chasing his stuff off the plate 33.7 percent of the time (27.7% MLB average in 2010), while also getting swinging strikes 9.4 percent (8-8.5% MLB average). Bonderman’s slider is giving hitters fits — they’re swinging at the pitch 54.7% (47.7% MLB average), coming up empty 23 percent of the time (13.6% MLB average).

It’s hard to say if he’ll remain healthy, but Bonderman is well worth picking up in AL-only leagues and has enough talent left to be of use in most mixed leagues, too.

Corey Hart, Brewers (40%)

Hart hammered pitchers in 2007, batting .295/.353/.539 with a .380 wOBA. He also nabbed 23 bases in addition to hitting 24 homers. Though the 6-6 righty batter again went 20/20 in 2008 (20 HR, 23 SB), Hart’s triple-slash dipped to .268/.300/.459, with a .327 wOBA. His Isolated Power, .244 in ’07, declined to .191. Most disappointing, Hart hacked at 31.7 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone in 2008, after chasing 25.7 percent the previous year (the MLB average was around 25% both seasons). As a result, his walk rate dipped from an already-low 6.4% in 2007 to 4.1% in 2008.

Last year, Hart improved ever so slightly — he posted a .260/.335/.418 triple slash (.331 wOBA). He traded some power for walks, with his ISO falling to .158 but his rate of free passes taken climbing to 9.1%. Hart didn’t run much (11 SB), but stopped chasing so many junk pitches, with a 23.5 O-Swing%. In 2010, Hart has kept the walks and started mashing to boot.

The 28-year-old right fielder has a .261/.329/.542 line in 158 plate appearances, good for a .371 wOBA. He’s walking in 9.5 percent of his PA and venturing out of the strike zone just 20.9%, while also popping 10 HR and putting up a .282 ISO. About the only disappointing aspect for fantasy folks is Hart’s three SB on the season.

Before you go batty over Hart’s Herculean power numbers, keep in mind that it takes about 550 PA for a change in Isolated Power to become reliable. Hart’s got pop — his career ISO is .203, and his rest-of-season ZiPS projects a .209 ISO — but he’ll probably post an ISO closer to .200 than .300 going forward. ZiPS thinks Hart will post a .349 wOBA (.263/.326/.471) for the rest of 2010.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Nine.

Jeremy Bonderman – After a rough April, Bonderman has rebounded with a strong May, posting a 1.33 ERA with 26 Ks and 7 BB in 27 IP. But it has not translated into Wins, as Bonderman picked up one victory in May and has a 2-2 record overall. Look for Bonderman to continue his strong pitching with matchups this week against the Indians and Royals, two teams with a combined 37-56 record. He could double his win total this week.

Rich Harden – It has been a roller coaster ride for Harden in his first season in Texas. At various times this year, Harden has had troubles with BB, HR and BABIP. The overall effect has been both a FIP and xFIP higher than his 5.14 ERA. Harden has a very good 8.82 K/9, but that is down from last year’s 10.91 rate. Additionally, he has a career high 54.2 FB%. So, while his HR/FB rate is a lower than average 9.1 percent, he still has allowed 7 HR in 49 IP. Bottom line, Harden is not pitching anywhere close to how he did in the second half of 2009, so do not risk him being active in a two-start week.

Ricky Nolasco – The story of the Spring was how Ricky Nolasco did not give up a walk until his final appearance. His control has carried over into the regular season, as Nolasco’s 1.60 BB/9 is the seventh-best mark in the majors. And while he is allowing fewer walks, he is also striking out fewer batters, over three per nine compared to a season ago. Not only is he allowing more balls in play, Nolasco’s FB% is up too, checking in at 44.1%. The end result is an ERA of 4.65. While he has been unlucky to the tune of 0.55 by both FIP and xFIP, Nolasco is not having the impact year many predicted. This week he faces the Brewers and Mets. Lifetime he is winless with an 11.81 ERA against Milwaukee and is 4-6 with a 5.62 ERA against New York so leave him on the bench if you have other options.

Ervin Santana – After starting the season 0-2 when he allowed 9 ER in 11.2 IP, Santana has been a much better pitcher. In his last six games he has thrown five Quality Starts. Santana’s K/9 is up to 8.09 for the season. He has been lucky with an 82.2 percent strand rate but he has favorable matchups this week against Kansas City and Seattle. While both of those starts are on the road, Santana has a 3.06 road ERA this year.

Hisanori Takahashi – The Japanese veteran started his career in the U.S. in long relief but did so well he earned a shot in the rotation, where he has pitched 12 scoreless innings. It remains to be seen if Takahashi will continue his success his second time through the league, but this week he gets a road start in Petco against a Padres team that has yet to face him and a home start against the Marlins. Takahashi is 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA in Citi Field, so he is a good pickup for his two-start week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Nine are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Jimenez, Verlander, Garza, Billingsley, Oswalt, Hudson, J. Garcia, Hanson, Pettitte, Liriano, Lackey, Vazquez, Buehrle, Ely, Arroyo, Fister, Myers, Blanton, Matusz, Vargas, Morrow, Blackburn, Correia, Cahill, Talbot, Gorzelanny, Hochevar, Robertson, Westbrook, Narveson, Ohlendorf, Bush, R. Lopez, Bannister, Atilano, Stammen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Seven pitchers and how they fared.

Ely – Advised to start. 2 W, 11 Ks, 2.77 ERA, 1.077 WHIP (2 starts)
Kuroda – Advised to start. W, 7 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.250 WHIP (2)
Matsuzaka – Advised to sit. W, 8 Ks, 4.97 ERA, 1.342 WHIP (2)
Pavano – Advised to start. 7 Ks, 7.50 ERA, 1.417 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to sit. 2W, 8 Ks, 1.98 ERA, 1.244 WHIP

Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers

Though the change may be temporary, Feliz has taken over closing duties from Frank Francisco.

One of two core players picked up in the July 2007 Mark Teixeira swap (Elvis Andrus being the other), Feliz beings mid-to-upper-nineties smoke, a hard high-70’s curve and an occasional mid-80’s changeup out of the ‘pen. The 22 year-old (in May) struck out 10.6 batters per nine innings in the minors. He has 11.8 K/9 in 34.1 big league frames, with 2.62 BB/9 and a 3.11 expected FIP. Feliz is adept at getting hitters to chase out of the zone, with a 30.1 outside swing percentage (25 percent MLB average).

Feliz’s long term role has yet to be determined, but there’s little doubt that he can be an effective, high-leverage reliever for the Rangers in 2010.

Chris Snyder, Arizona Diamondbacks

With Miguel Montero (torn meniscus in right knee) hitting the DL and likely headed for surgery that could sideline him for a significant amount of time, Snyder becomes the everyday backstop for the D-Backs.

Snyder is no stranger to health issues, as the 29 year-old was limited to 202 plate appearances in 2009 with a back injury that required surgery. His line (.200/.333/.352) and wOBA (.304) look ghastly, but he drew a walk nearly 16 percent of the time and still managed a .152 ISO. A .237 BABIP dragged down his numbers considerably.

Yeah, Snyder can’t beat a Molina in a foot race (career 1.0 Speed Score) and he pops the ball up a lot (career 14.7 infield fly rate), two traits that deflate BABIP (his career mark is .274). But if he’s healthy and gets a few more bounces to go his way, Snyder could be a nifty NL-only option: ZiPS projects a .239/.341/.438 line the rest of the way.

Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit Tigers

Bonderman has broken many hearts over the years. He has one of the largest splits between ERA (4.77 career) and xFIP (4.00) among starters, the result of a career .316 BABIP and a lower-than-usual strand rate (67.7 percent). Bonderman scarcely pitched at all over the 2008 and 2009 seasons following a procedure to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. It’s enough to make you wanna throw a chair.

While one start doesn’t tell us much, Bonderman did look good while taking on the Indians on April 10th. In five frames, he struck out five and walked two, surrendering one hit and one run. Bonderman pounded the zone with his fastball and slider, throwing 59 of his 91 pitches for strikes (64.8 percent). Stamina and durability are big issues, but Bonderman is owned in just four percent of Yahoo leagues. He’s worth a look.

Chris Young, San Diego Padres

It’s been a rough couple of years for Young. He took an Albert Pujols liner off the face in 2008, while also struggling with a right forearm injury. In 2009, Young underwent right shoulder surgery that limited him to just 76 innings. As an extreme fly ball pitcher in a park where long drives die at the warning track, he’s in the best possible environment. But Young’s velocity has dipped from the high-80’s to the mid-80’s, and his walk rate has increased considerably. His percentage of pitches within the strike zone has plummeted, as has his swinging strike rate.

Now, Young heads back to the DL with shoulder tightness. Precautionary or no, Young’s stuff has declined over the past few years to the extent that he would be a liability in less hospitable ball parks. He shouldn’t be on your radar unless/until he can show more than mid-80’s “heat” high in the zone.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Texas Rangers

It’s difficult to remember now, but Salty was once the key piece in the aforementioned Teixeira bounty. But in 874 career major league plate appearances, the switch-hitter has authored a .251/.313/.388 line, with a .306 wOBA. Saltalamacchia has handled fastballs at an average rate, but off-speed stuff has flummoxed him: -2.4 runs per 100 pitches against sliders, -0.97 runs/100 versus curves and -1.37 against changeups. Not surprisingly, Salty has seen a rather low proportion of fastballs (55.4 percent).

Saltalamacchia underwent surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome late last season, and he was recently placed on the DL with upper back stiffness. He won’t turn 25 until May, but the former top prospect is a flawed player at the moment. In Salty’s stead, Taylor Teagarden will try to prove that he can avoid being eaten alive by big league pitching. ZiPS (.215/.291/.369) thinks he’ll remain a tasty dish for opposing hurlers.

Ben Sheets, Oakland Athletics

Again, we’re dealing with small sample sizes here. But Sheets hasn’t shown crisp stuff with the A’s. The long-time Brewer, who missed the entire 2009 season with a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow, has a 4/7 K/BB ratio in 11 frames. Sheets has averaged 91.2 MPH with his fastball, compared to 92-93 MPH in past years. His swinging strike rate is 4.7 percent (8-9 percent MLB average), and his contact rate is well above average (88.1 percent, 80-81 percent MLB average).

It’s entirely possible that Sheets’ early struggles are forgotten in the coming months, with his fastball hitting its normal velocity and his performance improving greatly. The problem is, we just don’t know if that will occur at this point. If you own Sheets, don’t dump him for pennies on the dollar. But keep an eye on his fastball and curve in the coming weeks to see if they start to round into form.

It’s easy to forget that Jeremy Bonderman is only 27-years-old. He was placed in Detroit’s rotation and made 28 starts as a 20-year-old during their horrific 43-win season in 2003. Bonderman was allowed to develop at the big league level and quickly became a young workhorse. He would make 151 starts for the team from 2003-2007 averaging 30 starts a season. His banner year would come in 2006 (3.29 FIP in 214 innings) and this led to a four-year extension that he signed in December 2006 worth $38 million that covered his last two arbitration years and bought out his first two eligible free agent seasons.

Bonderman has been a massive disappointment since he signed that extension and injuries have decimated his past two seasons. A scary blood clot in his throwing shoulder altered his mechanics and cut short his 2008 season after 12 sub-par starts. Bonderman slowly regained his velocity this season as he struggled to fully recover from the prior surgery on the blood clot. He made 15 appearances in the minors and eight at the big league level where was relegated to relief duty down the stretch. This is the last year of his contract and he has much to play for. Bonderman is slated to be the teams fourth starter in 2010.

Health is definitely the biggest concern with Bonderman but no set backs have been report thus far this off season. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski was quoted in the USA Today about Bonderman and his health earlier this off season:

“He’s healthy. His velocity was fine at the end of the year. He just took a long time to bounce back from his surgery, but that’s healed now.”

Throwing strike one will be a big key for Bonderman in 2010. His first-strike percentage took a very noticeable dip in 2008 from his career norms. The blood clot seemed to hinder his pitch velocity and his velocity will be something to keep a very close eye on in spring training.

Prior to injury Bonderman was coming into his own and portraying good command along with healthy strike out rates. He’s always been a little homer prone save for his career year in 2006 but he was still producing good FIPs. He’s always had some higher BABIPs and left on base rates but these have become career norms for Bonderman. He has a career .317 BABIP and 67.7% LOB rate which are both below average. Bonderman just isn’t as good with runners on base and it’s not proper to adjust these stats.

With Bonderman appearing free to go in 2010 he has the potential to bring back big returns to fantasy owners. Detroit’s defense was very good in 2009 according to UZR and will be an asset for him and his ERA in 2010. He would be a nifty dollar starter or late round pick. He has big upside and had developed a very solid set of controllable peripherals prior to the blood clot.

Bill James’ 2010 projection (4.22 FIP in 185 innings) sounds very realistic to me. I think the 3.06 walk rate that James is projecting is too high and I’d expect that number to sneak into the 2.80’s based off his prior form. This would help lower his FIP and make for a rosier projection.

Remember that Bonderman is only 27-years-old and he still has many years ahead of himself. He’s a snoring sleeper pick and make sure that snore wakes you up. Bonderman could be paying big dividends for your fantasy team next summer.

Here is the latest update to Week 10 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

LAD – Billingsley
NYY – Burnett
SD – C. Young
TB – Sonnanstine
DET – Bonderman
BAL – Bergesen
STL – B. Thompson

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

STL – Lohse
NYY – Wang
TB – Niemann
DET – Willis
BAL – D. Hernandez

Billingsley has pitched at least six innings in each of his 12 outings this year and has 11 Quality Starts. The Dodgers have also supported him well offensively, averaging 5.11 runs per game in his starts.

Burnett went seven straight games without a win before earning a W in his last two outings. It has been tough going for Burnett in his first season in pinstripes. His K/9 are down, his BB/9 are up and his HR/9 have nearly doubled. A groundball pitcher throughout his career, Burnett has a 0.96 GB/FB ratio in 2009.

Young has two road starts this week. In Petco Park, Young is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.053 WHIP. On the road he is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.761 WHIP.

Sonnanstine’s FIP stands at 2.08 lower than his ERA. But his FIP still checks in at an ugly 4.99, over a full run higher than it was a year ago. All of his numbers are worse than they were a year ago. He has allowed five or more runs in five of his 11 starts this year.

Bonderman will make his 2009 debut after being on the disabled list since last June due to surgery to repair a blood clot in his axillary vein. He made four starts in the minors, three at Triple-A. In his last outing he pitched eight shutout innings with six hits, no walks and five strikeouts.

Bergesen is a groundball specialist. His 2.09 GB/FB rate would rank sixth, just behind Derek Lowe, if he had enough innings to qualify. Bergesen has done a good job of giving the Orioles a chance to win, only once in nine outings giving up more runs than innings pitched. His last two outings have been Quality Starts.

Thompson made his first start of the year on June 2nd after nine relief appearances. A curve ball specialist, Thompson relies on control and keeping the ball in the park in order to be successful.