Archive for Jeff Suppan

Here is the latest update to Week 11 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

PHI – Roy Halladay
SDP – Jon Garland
DET – Max Scherzer
OAK – Trevor Cahill
SEA – Luke French
STL – Jeff Suppan

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

OAK – Dallas Braden
DET – Rick Porcello
PHI – Kyle Kendrick (much to the dismay of Phillies Red)
PIT – Zach Duke
SEA – Ian Snell

Halladay has a 1.96 ERA and four losses. The losses have been two that were deserved (12.2 IP, 11 ER) and two of the hard-luck variety (17 IP, 3 ER). In his first start, Halladay renews acquaintances with the New York Yankees, against whom he is 18-6 with a 2.84 ERA lifetime. In his second start, Halladay goes up against the Twins, a team he is 8-1 lifetime against.

Garland has given up 9 ER in his last 13 IP and picked up back-to-back losses for the first time since his first two decisions of the year. Still, his ERA is a nifty 2.84, even if it is a run and a half lower than his xFIP. Garland gets home starts this week against Toronto and Baltimore. This year in Petco, Garland has a 1.15 ERA in 39 IP.

Scherzer followed up his 14-strikeout performance with a mediocre effort, but in his last outing he went 7.1 IP, allowed 3 ER, 1 BB and had 7 Ks. He gets two home starts this week, including a game against his old Diamondbacks teammates at the end of the week.

Cahill is second on the A’s with 5 W and has picked up a victory in four of his last five starts. He has pitched a Quality Start in each of his last six games, including his last outing when he went a season-high 8 IP and permitted just 1 ER. Cahill is succeeding despite a 4.85 K/9 and a 1.58 K/BB. He has a normal HR/FB rate and is excelling thanks to a .235 BABIP and a 77.3 strand rate.

French is a soft-tossing lefty acquired by the Mariners in the Jarrod Washburn deal at last year’s trade deadline. His best pitch is his changeup and he also complements his 87.7 mph fastball with a slider. A flyball pitcher, French has very little margin for error. He has a road start in St. Louis and a matchup against the Reds this week.

Suppan is back with the Cardinals, hoping to recapture the form that earned him a $42 million contract following the 2006 season. In his three previous years with St. Louis, Suppan won 44 games and had a 3.95 ERA. In the last three-plus years with the Brewers, Suppan notched 29 Wins and had a 5.08 ERA. In 15 games with the Brewers this season, Suppan had a .399 BABIP.

On Saturday, Milwaukee Brewers manager Ken Macha announced that David Bush will slot into the fourth spot in the rotation behind Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf and Doug Davis. The 30 year-old Bush is coming off of a grisly 2009 campaign in which he had a Boeing-level ERA and missed time in June and July with a right triceps tear after Hanley Ramirez scorched him with a comebacker. Is there any fantasy value to be had here?

In 114.1 innings pitched, the Wake Forest product had a 6.38 ERA. As you might expect, he wasn’t that bad: Bush’s expected FIP (xFIP), based on K’s, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, was a not-terrible-but still-mediocre 4.79. He managed to punch out 7.01 batters per nine frames, while issuing 2.91 BB/9. Those are quality numbers. But, as has often been the case in his career, Bush was battered by the long ball: he surrendered 1.5 HR/9.

Bush wasn’t particularly unlucky in terms of his fly balls becoming fan mementos. His HR/FB rate was 12 percent, close to his 11.7 percent career average and within the typical 10-12% rate for pitchers. It’s just that hitters are lofting the ball far more often against Bush:

Since his halcyon 2006 season (3.8 Wins Above Replacement), Bush has seen his groundball rate dip every year. He had a 46.6 GB% in ’06, 43.4% in 2007, 41.1% in 2008 and just a 34.4% rate of grounders this past season. Consequently, his HR/9 figures have climbed from 1.11 in 2006, 1.3 in 2007, 1.41 in 2008 and the aforementioned 1.5 mark in 2009. Bush’s xFIP last year was over a full run higher than his work in ’06.

With a kitchen sink approach to pitching, Bush tosses at least five different pitches (his Pitch F/X data identifies an occasional two-seamer as well). His fastball has never been known for its zip, but it averaged a career-low 87.9 MPH last year and was bushwhacked for a -1.36 runs/100 pitches value. That was the 11th-worst mark among starters with at least 110 innings pitched.

Perhaps feeling that his fastball had abandoned him, Bush threw the pitch a career-low 49 percent of the time. Whether you consider them separate pitches or not (the Baseball Info Solutions pitch data does), his slider (+0.20 runs/100) and cutter (+1.06) were effective. However, Bush’s slow curve (-0.15) and changeup (-4.46) rated poorly.

With fewer fastballs thrown (Bush’s fastball percentage has gradually dropped from 57 percent in ’06 to last year’s 49 percent mark), he has placed fewer pitches over the plate:

Bush’s percentage of pitches in the strike zone, 2006-2009 (MLB average that year in parentheses)

2006: 56.5% (52.6%), +7% above the MLB average
2007: 53.9% (50.3%), +7%
2008: 51.8% (51.1%), +1%
2009: 50.5% (49.3%), +2%

His first-pitch strike percentage has fallen from the 62 percentage range in ’06 and ’07 to a major league average 58 percent last year. Not coincidentally, Bush’s walk rate has gone from immaculate to merely good.

Bush’s BABIP (.324 last year) will likely fall, and he should do a better job of stranding runners on base (63.3 LOB% in 2009, compared to a 68.6% career rate). But to be a fantasy option, Bush must prove he’s healthy and regain his once-average fastball (career -0.19 runs/100), rather than continuing to chuck a pitch that looks like a beach ball to major league hitters.

It’s hard to recommend him, given his evaporating groundball rate and increasing rate of free passes handed out. CHONE calls for a 4.79 FIP, while ZiPS shows a 4.57 FIP forecast. It’s possible that Bush could have some value in NL-only leagues, but I can’t see him becoming a good mixed league pick.

Now that Bush is in the rotation, there’s a three-way ruckus for the fifth spot between Manny Parra (chronicled here), Jeff Suppan and Chris Narveson. Given that Soup’s French Onion is better than his fastball, Parra looks like the best option.

Sunday is the last scheduled day of the regular season and congratulations if you are still in contention for a money spot and can pick up a guy going in Game 162. Here are the pitchers going Sunday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Jeff Karstens (1%) – Has a road start in Cincinnati against Bailey. Had his longest outing since 6/5 when he went 5 IP, gave up 2 ER and picked up the win 9/30 versus the Cubs. However, he fanned only one. For the season Karstens has a 4.26 K/9 but has just 2 Ks in his last five outings, covering 10.2 IP.

Homer Bailey (49%) – Has a home start versus Karstens and the Pirates. In his last eight games he is 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 46 Ks in 52.1 IP. Bailey is 4-2 with a 4.52 ERA in the Great American Ball Park this year and is 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three games versus Pittsburgh.

Wilton Lopez (1%) – Has a road start in New York against Figueroa. In his first start of the season Lopez allowed 5 ER in 3.2 IP against the Phillies and saw his ERA rise to 9.42 for the season.

Nelson Figueroa (6%) – Has a home start versus Lopez and the Astros. Figueroa lost his fifth straight game in his last outing but deserved a better fate. as he allowed 2 ER in 6 IP and had 5 Ks. It was his second straight loss with a Quality Start. Figueroa is 1-4 with a 5.74 ERA this season in Citi Field. He has yet to face the Astros this season.

J.D. Martin (3%) – Has a road start in Atlanta against Hudson. In his last start, Martin allowed 3 ER in 6 IP but got a no-decision. He is 3-1 with a 4.62 ERA in his last seven starts. Martin is 4-2 with a 3.78 ERA in road games this season but he has yet to face the Braves in 2009.

Jeremy Guthrie (28%) – Has a home start versus Romero and the Blue Jays. Despite pitching a Quality Start (7 IP, 3 ER) in his last outing, Guthrie dropped his fourth straight decision. This year he is 5-8 with a 4.74 ERA at Camden Yards. Guthrie is 1-2 with a 4.09 ERA in three games against Toronto this season.

Tomo Ohka (0%) – Has a road start in Boston against Buchholz. Ohka pitches for the first time since 9/19 and makes his first start since 7/18. He is 0-1 with a 6.91 ERA in 28.2 road innings this year. Ohka has not pitched against the Red Sox in 2009.

Wade Davis (36%) – Has a home start versus Barnett and the Yankees. Davis picked up his second win of the season in his last outing, when he hurled 7 IP and gave up 1 ER versus the Orioles. He has a 1.83 ERA in 19.2 IP at Tropicana Field this year but Davis has yet to face New York.

Luke Hochevar (24%) – Has a road start in Minnesota against Pavano. In his last six games, Hochevar is 1-5 with an 8.47 ERA. He is 3-7 with a 7.53 ERA in road starts this year. However, in two starts versus the Twins, Hochevar is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA.

Jeff Suppan (9%) – Has a road start in St. Louis against Pineiro. In his last five starts, Suppan is 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA. He is 4-4 with a 4.20 ERA in road starts in 2009. Suppan is 1-2 with a 5.48 ERA in four games against the Cardinals this season.

Doug Davis (49%) – Has a road start in Chicago against Dempster. In his last eight games, Davis is 1-4 with a 6.20 ERA, with 24 BB and 8 HR in 45 IP. He is 3-7 with a 4.58 ERA in road games this year. Earlier this season, Davis pitched seven socreless innings against the Cubs, fanned seven and picked up the win.

Gio Gonzalez (28%) – Has a home start versus Saunders and the Angels. In his last nine starts, Gonzalez is 2-5 with a 5.94 ERA but with 54 Ks in 47 IP. He is 2-5 with a 6.75 ERA this season at McAfee Coliseum. Gonzalez 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA in two starts against the Angels.

Cesar Ramos (0%) – Has a home start versus Sanchez and the Giants. Made his first start in the majors 9/29 against the Dodgers and went 5 IP with 1 ER but got a no-decision. Ramos hit 94 with his fastball versus Los Angeles.

Vicente Padilla (32%) – Has a home start versus Marquis and the Rockies. Padilla returns to the rotation after making a relief appearance 9/30 versus the Padres. In seven games since joining the Dodgers, he is 3-0 with a 3.41 ERA with 28 Ks in 34.1 IP. Padilla has a 4.35 ERA in two games this year in Dodger Stadium and is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA this season against Colorado.

Here on Wednesday in the final week of the season most leagues have already passed their deadline for waivers. But for those of you in daily transaction leagues with moves still available and innings left to play with, there are no shortage of pitchers to consider. Here are the pitchers going Tuesday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Charlie Morton (5%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Lilly. Morton has lost three of his last four decisions and has a 5.04 ERA in that stretch. This year on the road he is 1-5 with a 7.45 ERA in 38.2 IP. Morton is 0-1 against the Cubs this year and he allowed 10 runs in 1 IP in his only start against Chicago.

Carlos Torres (2%) – Has a road start in Cleveland versus Carmona in a makeup of yesterday’s rainout. See Tuesday’s free agent column for more on Torres.

Tim Redding (4%) – Has road start in Washington versus Lannan. In his last seven starts Redding has a 3.19 ERA and a 1.157 WHIP over 42.1 IP. He is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in road starts this year and in two starts against the Nationals is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA.

John Lannan (36%) – Has home start versus Redding and the Mets. In his last nine starts, Lannan is 1-5 with a 5.51 ERA. He is 5-3 with a 2.62 ERA in home starts this season and is 2-2 with a 2.40 ERA in four games against New York.

Eddie Bonine (1%) – Has a home start against Pavano and the Twins. The 28-year old has appeared in nine games for Detroit this season and made three starts. His last outing he allowed two unearned runs in 6.2 IP versus the White Sox. Bonine throws a fastball, slider and change and rounds out his repertoire with an occasional knuckleball.

Robinson Tejeda (25%) – Has a road start in New York versus Chamberlain. Had been pitching brilliantly since move to the rotation until allowing 5 ER in 4.1 IP in his last start. Still, he is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA in five games as a starter. Tejeda has a great fastball, which has led to a 10.75 K/9 mark. However, he has been done in by lousy control. Tejeda has a 6.16 BB/9 ratio and he allowed seven walks in his last outing.

Brian Moehler (6%) – Has a road start in Philadelphia versus Martinez. Despite a 4.88 ERA in his last six starts, Moehler has pitched well in that span. Only a seven-run outing in less than three innings in his last start has dragged down his numbers in that span. Moehler is 5-4 with a 3.93 ERA in road games this season. He came away with a no-decision in his only outing against the Phillies this year after allowing 3 ER in 5.2 IP.

David Hernandez (5%) – Has a road start in Tampa Bay versus Shields. In his last eight games, Hernandez is 0-5 with a 7.34 ERA. This year he is 2-5 with a 5.11 ERA in road games. In his only game against the Rays, Hernandez allowed 5 ER in 3 IP and took the loss.

Justin Masterson (34%) – Has a home start against Buehrle and the White Sox after getting rained out yesterday. See Tuesday’s free agent pitchers for more on Masterson.

Jeff Karstens (1%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Zambrano. After starting the season in the rotation, Karstens moved to the bullpen for 26 games before making a start in his last outing on 9/25. Overall, he is 2-3 with a 5.19 ERA in 11 starts. Karstens has pitched two innings versus the Cubs this season and has allowed two earned runs.

Jeff Suppan (9%) – Has a road start in Colorado versus Hammel. In his last four starts, Suppan is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA and has allowed 4 HR in 23.1 IP. He is 4-3 with a 3.56 ERA in road starts this year. This will be Suppan’s first start against the Rockies this season.

Jason Hammel (41%) – Has a home start versus Suppan and the Brewers. In his last 11 starts, Hammel is 4-2 with a 3.74 ERA with 52 Ks in 67.1 IP. Early in the year Hammel had trouble in Coors Field, but he has notched a Quality Start in three of his last four home games. Overall, Hammel is 2-3 with a 5.63 ERA in home games. He is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA this year versus Milwaukee.

Derek Holland (37%) – Has a road start in Anaheim versus Weaver. Holland snapped a five-start losing streak in his last outing, when he allowed three runs in five innings and picked up a win versus the Rays. He is 2-5 with a 4.91 ERA in road games this year. In four games against the Angels, Holland is 2-1 with a 5.12 ERA. Keep in mind that the Angels have clinched and they may not have all of their regulars in the lineup.

Clayton Richard (29%) – Has a home game versus Garland and the Dodgers. In his last five games, Richard has a 3.90 ERA and a 1-1 record. Since being acquired in a trade from the White Sox, Richard is 3-0 with a 2.48 ERA in Petco Park. He has faced the Dodgers once this year and allowed 4 ER in 4.1 IP.

Clayton Mortensen (1%) – Has a road start in Seattle versus Morrow. Acquired from the Cardinals in the Holliday deal, Mortensen has one Quality Start in five games for Oakland. He has a nice 1.93 GB/FB ratio but has been unable to get many strikeouts (3.94 K/9) and has struggled with the gopher ball, as he has allowed 5 HR in 29.2 IP.

Brandon Morrow (28%) – Has a home game versus Mortensen and the A’s. Morrow has made three starts since being recalled from the minors and is 1-0 with a 4.02 ERA. However, he has allowed 11 BB in 15.2 innings over those three outings.

Kevin Mulvey (1%) – Has a road start in San Francisco against Penny. Mulvey has appeared in five games since being acquired on waivers from Minnesota, and has made three starts. In his last outing, he notched a Quality Start, as he allowed 3 ER in 6 IP in a home loss against the Giants.