Archive for Jeff Samardzija

• Asdrubal Cabrera has been placed on the Indians bereavement list, so make sure to adjust your daily lineups accordingly.

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Your Monday edition of FanGraphs’ Roto Riteup is just around the corner. Hey, there it is now!

–  Bryce Harper has been sent to minor league camp, which means he will not start the season with the big league club. Harper looks to be a great major league player, but he just wasn’t quite ready yet. I’d like to see if he can drop his strikeout rate in the minors while maintaining his power stroke before calling the greatest prospect who ever lived, but he’s about as talented as they come, and far advanced for his age. Nationals’ manager Davey Johnson has stated that Harper will get work at CF while in the minors, potentially making him insanely valuable in leagues that differentiate outfield spots.

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With the departure of delicate-yet-dominant righty Rich Harden via free agency, the Chicago Cubs have an open competition at the back end of the rotation. The candidates range from toxic (Carlos Silva) to infuriating (Jeff Samardzija) to intriguing (Tom Gorzelanny). Here’s a brief run-down of the hurlers vying to take the ball every fifth day for the Cubbies.

Picked up in the Milton Bradley deal with the Mariners, Silva should come with a Mr. Yuck sticker attached to him. The sinker-centric right-hander, 31 in April, was formerly a serviceable starter with the Twins, using pinpoint control (career 1.71 BB/9) to overcome an inability to make batters whiff (3.78 K/9).

The M’s inked Silva to a four-year, $48 million contract prior to the 2008 season, and he’s been beaten like he stole something ever since. An incredibly high BABIP and low strand rate masked what was another Silva-esque performance in ’08 (6.46 ERA, 4.64 xFIP), but he went on the DL with right biceps tendinitis in August. In 2009, he threw 30.1 grisly innings (5.53 xFIP) before succumbing to a right rotator cuff injury that limited him to just two more major league appearances. CHONE projects a 4.67 FIP next year. Even if he returns to form, he’s not a fantasy option.

Like Silva, Samardzija has come to be defined by the big bucks handed out for his services. The Cubs gave the former Notre Dame wide receiver a $10 million big league contract to eschew the NFL. Several years later, Chicago still isn’t sure what it has in the 25 year-old righty.

Samardzija had an underwhelming full-season debut in 2007, punching out 4.1 batters per nine innings, walking 2.8 per nine and posting a 4.73 FIP in 141.2 IP between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Southern League. Baseball America liked his heater for its combination of velocity and sink, but panned his inconsistent slider and changeup/splitter. “Samardzija,” BA said, is “still capable of becoming a frontline starter, a closer or a bust.”

In 2008, Samardzija missed more bats, but at the expense of control. Tossing 113.1 innings split between Double-A and the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, he had 6.7 K/9, 4.6 BB/9 and a 4.60 FIP. The Golden Domer also logged 27.1 major league innings out of the Cubs’ bullpen, with 8.13 K/9, 4.88 BB/9 and a 4.34 xFIP.

This past year, Samardzija shuttled between Iowa and Chicago. In 89 frames at Triple-A, he struck out 7.18 hitters per nine innings, issuing 2.73 BB/9 and compiling a 4.37 FIP. His major league stints didn’t go nearly as well. Samardzija was smacked for a 5.16 xFIP in 34.2 IP, with 5.45 K/9 and 3.89 BB/9.

Samardzija’s low-80’s slider (+0.17 runs per 100 pitches in the majors) and mid-80’s splitter (+0.95) have been effective, but his 93-94 MPH fastball (-1.09) hasn’t been as advertised. CHONE’s projection for Samardzija comes in relief, and it’s not especially sunny: a 4.74 FIP, with 6.92 K/9 and 3.88 BB/9. If you tack something like 0.75 to one run on to that to account for a shift in roles (The Book found that relievers shifting into starting roles generally perform about one run worse per nine innings), then things start getting ugly. Samardzija might be best off pitching in short stints.

Gorzelanny, meanwhile, was once a prized prospect in the Pirates organization. Armed with low-90’s velocity and a sharp slider, the left-hander displayed an exciting combo of force and finesse as he climbed the minor league ladder.

He pitched adequately in the bigs in 2006 and 2007 (with xFIPs of 4.88 and 4.82, respectively). However, a hefty workload in ’07 seemed to sap Gorzelanny of his former stuff: his fastball fell to the 88 MPH range and he walked nearly six batters per nine innings in 2008, posting a 5.84 xFIP in the process. He was booted to Triple-A in July (where he showed a pulse: 35 IP, 33/4 K/BB, 2.11 FIP) and suffered a left middle finger injury that sidelined him in September.

This past season, Gorzelanny started games at Triple-A Indianapolis, mopped up and got spot-starts for the Bucs in the majors, and was shipped to Chicago (along with LHP John Grabow) for righties Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio, plus minor league INF Josh Harrison. The Cubs also split Gorzo’s appearances between the bullpen and the rotation.

The 27 year-old performed admirably at the Triple-A level, whiffing 8.79 per nine innings, walking 3.1 and compiling a 2.87 FIP in 87 innings. In 47 major league innings (seven starts, 15 relief appearances), Gorzelanny pleasantly punched out a batter per inning, while handing out 3.26 walks per nine with a 3.73 xFIP. His fastball velocity crept back up to 91 MPH. For 2010, CHONE forecasts a 4.43 FIP for Gorzelanny as a starter, with 7.39 K/9 and 3.61 BB/9.

It’s worth nothing that while “who’s the fifth guy?” makes for good spring training copy, every team ends up relying on those sixth, seventh and even eighth starters at some point. With Big Z becoming familiar with the DL (shoulder in ’08, hamstring and back in ’09) and Ted Lilly working his way back from knee and shoulder ailments, odds are that Chicago’s starting depth will be tested. Gorzelanny’s revived repertoire makes him the best best of those back-end options.

Earlier today, we profiled Sean Marshall (a five-pitch lefty with shelf life, if not upside) and Aaron Heilman (solid reliever, dubious starter) as candidates for Chicago’s vacant fifth starter’s job. Let’s continue to examine that competition by putting Jeff Samardzija and Chad Gaudin under the microscope.

Like Heilman, Samardzija is a former Fighting Irish star. The Cubs lured the potential NFL wide receiver to the mound from the gridiron with a five-year, $10 million big league contract back in 2006. Since then, the 6-5, 220 pounder has authored an inscrutable stat line in the minors. In his full-season debut in 2007, Samardzija scarcely missed any bats (3.77 K/9) in 107.1 innings at High-A Daytona, though his control was fair (2.93 BB/9) and he posted a 52 GB%. Bumped up to AA Tennessee for the second half of the season, Samardzija still didn’t smoke many batters with the Smokies, punching out 5.24 batters per nine in 34.1 frames.

Sent back to Tennessee to kick off the 2008 campaign, Samardzija continued to compile mediocre numbers. He K’d just 5.21 per nine innings, while walking nearly five (4.97 BB/9) in 76 innings of work. Despite that dubious performance, Samardzija was promoted to AAA Iowa. In the corn fields, Samardzija actually began to show some of the skills that earned him such a hefty bonus. In 37.1 innings, he posted rates of 9.64 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9.

Promoted to the majors in late July, Samardzija tossed 27.1 innings for the North Siders. He missed bats (8.13 K/9), though his control was erratic (4.88 BB/9). The powerful repertoire which caused the Cubs to open the coffers was on display, as Samardzija’s fastball sat around 95 MPH out of the ‘pen. He supplemented the heat with a low-80’s slider and a mid-80’s split-finger/changeup.

Lou Pinella recently called Samardzija the club’s “sixth starter”, suggesting that the 24 year-old could be headed for AAA to stay stretched out if he doesn’t claim the fifth-starter’s role. Opinions of Samardzija’s future role (starter? reliever?) and ultimate level of success diverge wildly. Some feel (and perhaps justifiably so) that the power righty is still relatively new to the craft, having split his time in college between two sports. Others look at his mixed track record and big bonus, concluding that the Cubs spent grandly for a raw pitcher in his mid-20’s. Given Samardzija’s progress this past season, he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on as the season unfolds.

Gaudin, soon 26, has really been around for a useful pitcher in his mid-20’s. Originally selected by the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays in the 34th round of the 2001 draft, Gaudin has since been involved in three trades (including last summer’s Rich Harden swap), passing through Tampa, Toronto, Oakland and Chicago. The chances of Gaudin earning the job are very remote (he appears headed for the bullpen), but he did make 34 starts for the A’s back in 2007. The results were mixed, as he posted rates of 6.95 K/9 and 4.52 BB/9, with a 4.69 FIP. The 5-10, 188 pounder is coming off of his best season in the majors. In 90 frames out of the ‘pen for the A’s and the Cubs, Gaudin whiffed 7.1 batters per nine innings while keeping his walks in check (2.7 BB/9). Gaudin provides adequate coverage in the event of an injury.

The thing to keep in mind with all of Chicago’s fifth starter candidates is that each could end up seeing some starts at some point during the season. Teams never go through an entire year using just their top five guys; often, upwards of ten hurlers will take the mound to start a game. Chicago in particular could need such depth: Rich Harden is exceptionally talented but notoriously frail, and Carlos Zambrano is starting to show some signs of fatigue from a heavy workload at a young age.