Archive for Jeff Francis

If you’re looking for pitchers to stream or if you’re looking for potentially cheap options in daily, salary-cap formats, here are a few options for week two that are widely available and almost certain to be fairly cheap.

Joe Blanton | Los Angeles Angels | Home to Oakland on Wednesday

We all know exactly what Joe Blanton is. He’s a guy with slightly above average strikeout skills and a great walk rate. Unfortunately, he lives in the zone too much and has a problem with home runs as a result. But in the right ballparks Blanton is capable of being a good fantasy spot starter. Despite the fact that he moved to the AL this offseason, it was nice to see him sign with the Angels because his new home ballpark suppresses home runs at an above average rate.

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As we sit and wait for all the big-named free agents to find themselves new homes, it’s time to start thinking about strategy for next year.  There are numerous of ways to go about drafting your team and you’re going to hear plenty of do’s and don’ts from a variety of people.  So allow me to chime in here first and tell you why punting saves should not be in your plans when developing a proper draft strategy.  Some people see no harm in it and tell you to just bulk up elsewhere.  I disagree.  It’s an automatic concession of points to your competition and immediately puts you at a disadvantage.

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Here is the latest update to Week 2 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

F. Hernandez, Price, Cahill, Burnett, Duensing, Pineda, Richard, Matsuzaka, Francis, Tillman, Penny, Litsch, Talbot.

Pitcher no longer scheduled for two starts: Stauffer

Of the new pitchers, Jeff Francis is an interesting one to examine. After missing all of the 2009 season recovering from shoulder surgery, Francis came back to pitch 104.1 innings for the Rockies last year. A free agent following the 2010 season, the former 17-game winner had to sign an incentive-heavy, $1 year/$2 million deal with the Royals.

While winless in his first two starts, Francis has pitched into the seventh inning both games and has a 1.98 ERA along with a solid 3.28 xFIP. He’s getting more swings out of the zone (31.3 O-Swing%) and batters are making less contact than normal. It makes him an interesting candidate for his two starts this week and he potentially has some favorable pitching matchups.

In his first game this week, Francis squares off against Brian Duensing and the Twins. In his first start, Duensing’s velocity was down 2 mph from his average last year. Plus Minnesota is next to last in the American League with a 2.62 runs per game average.

Francis’ second start comes against rookie sensation Michael Pineda. Dave Cameron reviewed Pineda’s first start and concluded that Pineda has some work to do with his off-speed offerings to lefty batters, who managed two doubles and a triple in his game against the Rangers. The Royals can stack a lineup full of lefties to face Pineda, including the red-hot Alex Gordon, along with Chris Getz, Melky Cabrera, the Kila monster and Wilson Betemit.

While those names might not strike fear into many hearts and minds, that group has led the Royals to a 6-3 start to the season. Available on the waver wire in most leagues, Francis is a potential pickup to stream for his two starts this week.

Before I set off on my move to California and give my teary-eyed goodbyes to New York City, there’s time for one last waiver wire piece. I’ll have to take a break for the next week as things are about to get really hectic, but as I’ve been wont to do, I’ll focus on some deep league options. Because if you’re here, you’re probably playing in at least one league where you’ll consider these guys, warts and all.

Jeff Francis, Colorado (13% owned)
I’ll have to admit I was skeptical when Brian Joura touted Francis as a $1 option in March. I remained skeptical when he showed a sub-five strikeout rate after taking a year off for surgery. In my heart of hearts, I still am skeptical. But here’s the thing, Francis is doing some things right. He’s not getting that lucky, as his BABIP (.282) and strand rate (71.1%) are fine. He’s just not walking people (1.88 BB/9), and keeping the ball on the ground at a career-high rate (50.8%). The pitching mix has changed a bit, as he’s throwing his bad fastball (-39.9 runs career) the least he has in his career (57.4% this year, 62.6% career), and that has to count as a positive. Of course, the bee in the bonnet is his career-best home run rate (0.47 HR/9), which is built on the back of his HR/FB number (4.8%) that xFIP (obviously) doesn’t think is sustainable (4.26 xFIP, compared to his 3.44 FIP). Here’s the thing, though. Not only is that xFIP tied for his career-best, but you could easily double Francis’ home runs to date (two) and he’d still be having a great year. Francis is a decent option for your bench in most formats, although I’d retain my skepticism in mixed leagues.

Rick Ankiel, Kansas City (4% owned)
If you’re in a deep league with five outfield spots, you might just own someone worse than Rick Ankiel. As with many deep league waiver candidates, there are plenty of reasons not to like the converted pitcher who is roaming the outfield in powder blue. His major fault has even been magnified this year, as his poor strikeout rate (26.3% career) has crossed over into terrible territory this year (35.5%). No matter, you don’t own him for his batting average, you own him for his power, like (ostensibly) the Royals do. The best news about Ankiel is that it looks like that power is back (.210 ISO) after a down year last year (.156 ISO). He also has had a decent rehab assignment, hitting for both power and average in Triple-A Omaha. If he comes back and stays healthy, he could put in more at-bats than ZiPs RoS predicts (232) considering the season is not yet at the halfway-point. In deep leagues with divided outfielders, getting 15 or so home runs from your CF might be worth taking the batting average hurt. The power should be there, and therefore the value.

After missing the entire 2009 season due to surgery on a torn labrum, Rockies pitcher Jeff Francis is back pitching and is in the running for the fifth starter’s job. Saturday’s outing was rough (4 IP, 6 R, 6 H) but should not detract from the fact that if he does make the rotation, Francis is an excellent $1 pitcher in NL-only leagues.

Before the injury, Francis was on his way to becoming one of the top young pitchers in the game. Over the 2006-07 seasons, he had 30 W, a 4.19 ERA and a 1.335 WHIP in his age 25 and 26 seasons. While he did not rack up strikeouts (282 in 414.1 IP), his K/9 went from 5.3 in 2006 to 6.9 in 2007 and he had a 2.62 K/BB ratio in the latter year.

Francis did this without overpowering stuff. His fastball averaged in the mid-80s over these two seasons and was actually a negative pitch in 2007. But he succeeded thanks to an extremely effective changeup. At 11.9 runs above average, Francis’ change was the seventh-best one in MLB in 2007. He also mixed in a curve ball, which was an average offering.

In 2008, Francis struggled right off the bat. He finally went on the disabled list at the end of June with shoulder inflammation and missed five weeks. After getting roughed up again in his first outing after being activated, Francis reeled off six strong starts (2.82 ERA, 24 Ks, 9 BB, 38.1 IP) before being shut down for good after September 12th. In February of 2009, he underwent arthroscopic surgery and missed the regular season.

Flash forward to 2010 and Francis has made four starts in the Cactus League. He is still a work in progress and the velocity on his fastball has not been consistent. Overall Francis has 13 IP, 16 H, 10 ER, 5 BB and 9 Ks. Francis needs the separation between his fastball and changeup to be significant in order for the latter pitch to succeed. He still has two more starts left this Spring to iron things out. However, as the team’s fifth starter, Francis would not pitch the early part of April and could have additional time in Arizona to refine his stuff.

In the end game, you want to take pitchers with both upside and a good shot at a starting spot. We know that Francis has significant upside, based upon what he has already done in the majors. And he should be the team’s fifth starter if he is healthy. Francis is battling journeymen Tim Redding and Gregory Smith for the final rotation slot and should be an easy choice if his shoulder is sound.

So, if you have time before your auction or draft, monitor Francis’ final two outings. Better results than his last performance would be nice, but the real key is that he logs innings and does not suffer any setbacks. If both of those things are true, Francis should be a prime target to fill out the back of your staff.

– Alex Gordon broke his thumb, and will miss the next 3-4 weeks. The once highly touted prospect has struggled in the bigs, coming in at -3.3 batting runs for his career. He was likely to put up a solid 2010 campaign, but his injury could hurt his playing time. If the newly acquired Josh Fields plays well in spring training action, he might be able to sneak in and steal the third base job. However, it is more likely that Fields and Gordon will simply platoon, with Fields seeing time against southpaws.

– Dodgers catcher Russell Martin has a pulled groin, according to MRI’s, and will miss the next 4-6 weeks. Martin was in line for a nice bounceback season, with all of the projection systems having him hitting around .273 with 12 homers, and double digit steals. But, a leg injury could make him timid at the plate and could stop him from running as much. Leg injuries always scare me with catchers, and this is no exception. A.J. Ellis will get time in Martin’s absence, but he isn’t important, as his value is as close to zero as you can possibly imagine.

– As you’ve probably heard, Angel Guzman’s career is in question after suffering a major tear in a ligament “near his armpit”, as well as shoulder problems. He plans to have surgery and attempt to come back from his injury, but he wouldn’t be available to pitch this season. Guzman was looking to be the setup man in Chicago this year, and had value as a handcuff to Carlos Marmol, and even more value in Holds leagues. Now it appears that John Grabow is likely to get more high leverage innings, and the Cubs are going to go searching for a new right handed setup man on the trade market.

– Jeff Francis returned to action Friday, after not pitching since September 12 or 2008. Francis isn’t a fantastic fantasy pitcher, but he is a nice source of wins if he’s healthy.

– Josh Hamilton has a bruised left shoulder, and is trying to work his way back. He went 2-3 and scored a run in a spring training game on Monday.

– In other Dodger news, third baseman Casey Blake had to be pulled out of the team’s game on Monday, due to a strained rib-cage muscle. The prognosis is unclear, but it doesn’t appear to be anything serious and the club just wants to be careful.