Archive for Jeff Clement

I’ll do one shallow league guy just because he’s heating up and I’ve seen him on some wires, but then it’s back to the deep leagues of course. This triptych of ineptitude may leave you with a bad taste in your mouth, but there’s utility here despite their warts.

Nate McLouth | OF | Braves (50% owned)
It’s a mixed bag with McLouth, who was already behind the eight ball in leagues that count batting average. Since swing rates stabilize first, we’ll take a look there – and find the numbers going in different directions. Overall, he’s swinging a lot less this year (34.7%) than in his career overall (40.1%), but it’s hard to say that’s a negative right off the bat. Swinging less could, for example, lead to more selectivity and more walks. Accordingly, McLouth is reaching less (20.4%) than he has in his career (21.2%), and walking at a career high rate (14.3%). And that’s good. What’s bad is that his contact rate is down (81.3% this year, 85.4% career). In any case, more contextual clues lead to some hope. A week ago, McLouth had been dropped to 8th in the order and wasn’t playing against lefties. Though 478 at-bats against lefties is hardly an opus, his .702 OPS against lefties is close to a disasterpiece. Count it as hope that McLouth has been moved back to leadoff against righties, and you’ll get yourself a lifetime .818 OPS hitter against that hand. As long as you have daily lineups, and can wait for righties, he’s a good pickup.

Delmon Young | OF | Twins (15% owned)
Yes, I know. Hold your nose. Young is not the dynamic star that was once prognosticated for him. He’s very flawed. He doesn’t have much power. But this isn’t to say that he hasn’t improved. In fact, his swing profile includes some improvement in virtually every category. For such a wild swinger, swinging less has to be a positive – and Young is swinging less (54.7% this year, 61.2% career). He’s reaching at a career-low rate (36.8%), and this improvement is particularly informative because it’s part of a trend. He’s improved his reach rate in every season in the bigs. The best news is that his contact rate is up big (79.9% this year, 75.3% career) at the same time. He still swings at bad pitches too often, and his power is just barely above average, but there’s a good chance that he retains the gains he’s made in the early going. Though it’s not yet significant, it’s nice to note that he’s sporting a career high in flyball rate right now, and a .290/20/10 season is not out of reach. The hardest part will be following the lineups to make sure he’s playing.

Steve Pearce | 1B | Pittsburgh (0% owned)
Is another major league team about to give up on Jeff Clement? When is a good time to cut your losses and give up on a player? Did the Pirates already give up on Pearce before Clement? These are all good questions that won’t be answered here. Instead, we’ll just report that Pearce was recalled today and is on the major league roster. Though he’s shown a platoon split in the major leagues (.920 OPS versus lefties, .607 vs righties), those have come in a mere 378 plate appearances total. The same split is not as pronounced in the minors (.929 vs lefties, .871 vs righties) and virtually disappeared in his hot 2010 start (.353/.456/.612 overall). Maybe he’ll get some starts at first base against lefties, or maybe he’ll steal some time from the scuffling Lastings Milledge. It’s worth stowing a guy with a .889 career minor league OPS in about 2000 at-bats, especially when he’s just turned 27 and has a fire under his behind.

Ownership rates courtesy Yahoo Fantasy Sports.

Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals

The 24 year-old Desmond was recently named Washington’s starting shortstop, overtaking $8 million man Cristian Guzman. Though the club said it wasn’t a factor, Guzman (who missed time with a shoulder injury last September and this spring) has struggled to unleash throws from deep in the hole.

A third round pick in the 2004 draft, Desmond had a big year at the plate in 2009. He missed two months following surgery to remove the hamate bone in his left hand, but he hit a combined .330/.401/.477 between Double-A and Triple-A. A near-.400 BABIP helped him tremendously, though he did do a better job of working the count (9.1 percent walk rate). In a late-season stint with the Nationals, Desmond posted a .372 wOBA in 89 plate appearances. What do the projection systems say about him?

CHONE: .265/.326/.412, .324 wOBA
ZiPS: .270/.334/.388, .325 wOBA
FANS: .278/.335/.412, .330 wOBA

Desmond should be about a league-average hitter in 2010. At shortstop, that’s useful in NL-only leagues. For more on Desmond, see Dan Budreika’s breakdown and Marc Hulet’s Top 10 Nationals prospects list.

Franklin Morales, Colorado Rockies

Huston Street (shoulder) will start the season on the DL, giving Morales the chance to rack up some saves in the early going.

As a starter in the minors, the 24 year-old lefty whiffed a batter per inning but walked a whopping 5.2 batters per nine frames. At the Triple-A level, Morales had 7.3 K/9 and 6.1 BB/9 in 168.2 innings. Shifted to the bullpen in 2009, he posted a 4.72 xFIP with 9.23 K/9 and 5.18 BB/9 in 40 innings.

At this point, Morales tries to overpower hitters with 92-93 MPH heat while hoping for enough weak swings to compensate for a lack of secondary stuff and control. Morales’ fastball has been a plus pitch in the majors (+0.57 runs/100 pitches), and he gets plenty of swings and misses: his fastball had an 8.4 percent whiff rate last year, compared to the six percent MLB average. However, his low-70’s curveball (-1.13) and high-70’s changeup (-0.66) lag behind, and his first pitch strike percentage in the bigs is just 50.9 percent (58 percent MLB average).

Though he’s far from a finished product, Morales is well worth picking up in all formats.

Jeff Clement, Pittsburgh Pirates

Clement was once considered a franchise building block in Seattle as a catcher with ample lefty pop. Now, he’s a 26 year-old first baseman aspiring to be the next Adam LaRoche in Pittsburgh. Though he has struggled in limited major league playing time (.237/.309/.393 in 243 PA), Clement has a career .279/.368/.492 line at the Triple-A level.

Problem is, that’s yawn-inducing now that he has fallen down the defensive spectrum. CHONE and ZiPS both project a .265/.340/.460-type season for Clement in 2010. That’s not bad, but consider that the average MLB first baseman socked to the tune of a .277/.362/.483 triple-slash in 2009. Clement will open the year as Pittsburgh’s starting first baseman, and he could have a little value in NL-only leagues. But he’ll have to mash to keep his spot.

Tom Gorzelanny, Chicago Cubs

The former Pirates prospect looked cooked in 2008, but his stuff bounced back in ’09 as he pitched well in seven starts and 15 relief appearances (3.73 xFIP). Gorzo has punched out 8.6 batters per nine innings with 2.5 BB/9 in Triple-A, and both CHONE and ZiPS figure that he’ll be a handy starter for the Cubs in 2010:

CHONE: 7.39 K/9, 3.61 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 4.43 FIP
ZiPS: 7.25 K/9, 3.74 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 4.25 FIP

His rotation spot isn’t guaranteed once Ted Lilly returns, but Gorzelanny has the talent to remain in the starting five and provide value in NL-only leagues.

(Jason Heyward is an obvious candidate here, but we examined his fantasy value a few days ago.)

Russell Branyan, Cleveland Indians

The Three True Outcomes nomad will start the season on the DL with a herniated disk in his back. Branyan isn’t likely to match last year’s .368 wOBA with the M’s (most projection systems have him regressing to the .350 range), and a balky back won’t help his chances.

On a positive note, CC Sabathia trade goodies Michael Brantley (left field) and Matt LaPorta (first base) will open the year in the starting lineup. Brantley offers a keen eye and high-percentage base thievery (46 SB in 51 tries at Triple-A last year), and LaPorta can put a charge into the ball (career .266 ISO in the minors).

Dustin McGowan, Toronto Blue Jays

When healthy, McGowan has been a quality starter (career 4.28 xFIP). But the 28 year-old hasn’t tossed a major league pitch since July of 2008 following shoulder surgery. He was recently shut down, so it doesn’t look like McGowan is particularly close to pumping mid-90’s heat and upper-80’s breaking stuff like he used to.

Melky Cabrera, Atlanta Braves

Fantasy players aren’t going to cry over spilled Melky, not with Heyward getting a chance to shine in right field. But with the best hitting prospect in the game making the squad, Cabrera goes from a possible sleeper in NL-only leagues (CHONE projects a .358 wOBA) to a part-time player who will share left field with Matt Diaz.

Minnesota’s closer-by-committee

With Joe Nathan (Tommy John surgery) sidelined in 2010, Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire plans to enter 2010 with a closer-by-committee approach. That means Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and Jesse Crain could all get a shot at the ninth. Any owner who drafted Nathan, watched his elbow go boom and then picked up Rauch looking to recoup some value is probably getting all twitchy while reading this.

By the time a top prospect graces a major league field, avid fans can recite just about any detail regarding that player. Height, weight, round drafted (or country signed from), minor league stats, scouting reports, what he likes to eat for lunch..you name it, and it’s known.

With fantasy players going to CIA-like lengths to get the scoop, looking to identify The Next Big Thing before anyone else, expectations for those prospects soar. Sometimes, those players scuffle at first, get hurt or don’t get an opportunity to play every day. They fade from a person’s consciousness, as attention is turned to the next crop of “can’t miss” youngsters.

Today, I’d like to turn your attention back toward some names that everyone swooned over a few years back, but have yet to reach their potential for one reason or another. Here’s the Fallen Prospect Lineup, with CHONE projections for the 2010 season included.

Catcher

J.R. Towles, Astros

CHONE: .252/.332/.409, .326 wOBA

Towles’ minor league track record suggests that he could be better than the average backstop with the bat, but a string of injuries, an ugly line in a small amount of big league playing time (largely the product of a .218 BABIP) and the presence of 2008 first-rounder Jason Castro have torpedoed his status within the organization. It’s difficult to find a guy capable of league-average offense at catcher, so the 26 year-old shouldn’t be written off just yet.

First Base

Jeff Clement, Pirates

CHONE:.264/.342/.460, .350 wOBA

Formerly a catcher, Clement was viewed as a franchise-type player when the Mariners selected him with the third pick in the 2005 draft. However, knee injuries and spotty receiving skills caused him to fall down the defensive spectrum. Now that he’s apparently through strapping on shin guards, Clement will need to slug his way to a big league career at first base. He’s a career .279/.368/.492 hitter in 1,500+ plate appearances at the Triple-A level. Clement, 26, figures to get his first crack at an everyday job if Pittsburgh feels comfortable with Garrett Jones in right field.

Second Base

Sean Rodriguez, Rays

CHONE: .241/.327/.447, .338 wOBA

Snagged from the Angels in last year’s Scott Kazmir deal, Rodriguez has beat the bejesus out of the baseball in Triple-A (.298/.396/.620 line in 750 PA), though Salt Lake City (the Halos’ highest minor league affiliate) is a cozy place for a batter to take his cuts. The 25 year-old doesn’t have a clear path to everyday playing time, but he has experience at second base, shortstop, third base and in the outfield. With Tampa, Rodriguez will perhaps fill in at the keystone when Ben Zobrist plays the outfield, while catching an occasional start at other positions when a regular needs a breather.

Shortstop

Ronny Cedeno, Pirates

CHONE: .257/.303/.389, .304 wOBA

Slim pickings here. That CHONE projection would actually constitute a great leap forward for the former Cub and Mariner, who has a career .272 wOBA in the majors. Cedeno just plain hasn’t been able to handle big league fastballs to this point: per 100 pitches, he has been two runs below average when a pitcher reaches back and fires. He has hacked first and asked questions later, too, chasing 35.5 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). Cedeno, 27, will “battle” Bobby Crosby in spring training for a starting spot.

Last we heard, both Ronny and Bobby are trying to board Oceanic Flight 815, hoping to crash on the “The Island” back in 2004. I’m not sure that even Jacob or The Man in Black could help these two, though.

Third Base

Alex Gordon, Royals

CHONE: .267/.353/.435, .350 wOBA

The fervor surrounding Gordon never reached Wieters-esque levels, but the Golden Spikes Award Winner and Nebraska star was supposed to mash from the moment the K.C. home crowd gave him a standing ovation in 2007. Gordon’s ’09 campaign was marred by a hip injury, but it’s important to keep in mind that a “disappointing” major league performance to this point has resulted in a 98 wRC+ (two percent below the MLB average).

The 26 year-old lefty batter must show improvement versus breaking stuff, particularly of the southpaw variety, but CHONE projects an offensive showing that’s 14 percent better than the big league average next season (114 wRC+).

Outfield

Wladimir Balentien, Reds

CHONE: .265/.342/.487, .358 wOBA

Traded from the Mariners to the Reds last year, Balentien is a hulking righty hitter who has impaled pitchers at Triple-A (.283/.359/.534 in 819 PA) and flailed in the majors (.221/.281/.374 in 559 PA, with a 72 wRC+). He hasn’t exactly crushed fastballs. But against curves and sliders, Wlad has looked like a beer league softball player who hit the kegs a little overzealously in the early innings. His contact rate to this point is a Custian 69.8 percent (80-81% MLB average).

Still, Balentien is a 25 year-old with a good record in the high minors. He’ll fight for playing time in left field with a laundry list of others, including Chris Dickerson, Jonny Gomes, and possibly Chris Heisey.

Delmon Young, Twins

CHONE: .305/.339/.454, .346 wOBA

Remember “Delmon Young, the next Albert Belle“? The first overall pick in the 2003 draft earned the adoration of prospect mavens by throttling pitchers at minor league levels where he was several years younger than the competition. Sure, his strike zone was expansive, but it was easy to dream of a day when he’d be an all-around force at the plate.

Now 24, Young enters the 2010 season with a career 95 wRC+ in the majors. The problems: a tendency to swing at anything from North Dakota to Wisconsin (career 40.4 Outside-Swing% and a four percent walk rate) and roll over the ball (50 percent groundball rate). It also doesn’t help that he has played DH-worthy defense (career -18.9 UZR/150 in LF). He’s not doomed yet, but there’s a good chance that he’s the next Jose Guillen instead of the next Belle

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

CHONE: .284/.345/.423, .338 wOBA

Once a premium center field prospect with the Mets, Milledge is now a left fielder on his third organization. His career wRC+ is just 93, as he has often strayed from the zone (31.6 Outside-Swing%) and rarely popped the ball over the fence or into the gaps (.132 ISO). The soon-to-be 25 year-old doesn’t project as a standout defender, so he’ll need to up the offensive ante in Pittsburgh. Jose Tabata and Gorkys Hernandez both have ETAs of late 2010 or early 2011.