Archive for Jay Bruce

It’s time for the inaugural edition of the RotoGraphs Mailbag. Our email address for this feature is rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com, so send in your questions! Remember to try to give us all relevant information in the fewest words possible, and you’ll be all set.

In a 10-team mixed league I was offered Lincecum for Bruce, Baker and Joba. I’ve got plenty of depth at SP with Haren, Vazquez, Gallardo, Meche, Slowey and Ubaldo (we start 10 pitchers and have no bench). I’d replace Bruce with Fowler/Morgan. It’s not a keeper league.
Thanks guys, D.S.

While I’m always a proponent of consolidating talent in shallow leagues, this really tests the assumption that you should always take the best player in a trade. Tim Lincecum is by far and away the best player in this trade, that much is for sure. Amazingly, he’s upped his otherworldly strikeout rate and dropped his walk rate this year. In fact, with at .368 BABIP against, he’s been unlucky, if you can believe that. Other than the fact that he led all pitchers under 25 in Baseball Prospectus’ Pitcher Abuse Points last year, there’s little to worry about.

But you don’t have the luxury of moving pitchers in and out. You need to field six or seven good starting pitchers, not just one or two and a bunch of spot starters. Dropping from Joba Chamberlain and Scott Baker to Lincecum alone will hurt your depth and cause you to go to the waiver wire for pitching. And starting pitching on the waiver wire is pretty barren these days. I say you hold on to your buy-low trio and reap the benefits of their return to grace.

As David pointed out, Jay Bruce is only on the way up from here. Chamberlain still has an elite strikeout rate himself (8.83 K/9), despite a step back. It is upsetting that his HR/9 almost doubled and his BB/9 is up a full walk, and also that his fastball is down almost three miles per hour over last year. People are reaching a lot less, too (20.5% this year, 26.3% career). (Wait, why was I recommending you keep him?) Baker, though, should rebound for sure. After giving up 9.5% HR/FB over his career (MLB average hovers around 10%), Baker is serving up home runs on 18.6% of his fly balls. Nothing else is out of order, so he should return to his customary value as that number falls.

Sure, none of these guys are Lincecum. But if you’re already playing Ubaldo Jimenez, it might get ugly quickly if you start looking for another pitcher on the wire. Perhaps more knowledge about the pitching on the wire would shift this trade into the ‘do’ category.

I am in a 12-team mixed head-to-head league and am considering trading Adam Lind for Shin-Soo Choo for a couple reasons: 1) I like the more balanced stats Choo brings to my team (more R and SB), and 2), I think Lind may be overvalued right now considering his hot start (BABIP of .384), and vice-versa for Choo. Based on Choo’s great second half last year, and improving BB% and K% this year, I think he has a decent chance of outperforming Lind even in HR and 2B and RBI. Would you make this trade?
Thanks, M. R.

Wow, you did a lot of the analysis for us here. But the question is still interesting, for another reason. These players are actually very similar: they are high-line drive hitters that should hit for solid averages. They both may have mediocre home run totals by the end of the year, as well.

The under-rated Shin-Soo Choo’s career fly-ball percentage is low for a power hitter, at 32%, but he’s settled in around 36% the last two years. His line drive rate has been nothing short of elite – it’s at 26.4% this year (8th in the majors), and 23.8% for his career. Line drive rate is positively correlated with batting average, and with the improving walk and strike-out rates, Choo is indeed a very safe producer in batting average. A 68% success rate on steals should mean he’ll comfortably continue to pilfer bags, too.

Adam Lind has the same low fly-ball percentage (33.5% career), and also sports a great line drive rate this year (25.4%). However, his career line drive rate is nowhere near Choo’s elite status at 19.8%, a figure that has largely been skewed by this year’s excellence. Because Lind has always sported a double-digit HR/FB rate, while Choo hasn’t, ZiPS likes Lind to hit another 14 homers while it likes Choo to total 14 for the year. However, with Lind’s low fly ball percentage this year (29.5%), he’ll have to start getting those infield flies (25.8%) out of the park for the power projections to be correct. He certainly is busting out, as Dave Cameron outlined here.

I think you’re right in taking the safer choice of the two. Choo’s added steals should make up for the five or six home runs he may lack compared to Lind. But I can’t help wondering: Can you upgrade somewhere else since Lind’s name is so hot right now? Add a second pair of players into the deal in order to cash in on Lind’s rising star and better current numbers.

Stock Up

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto displayed his superb talent last season, though his tendency to cough up homers and occasionally lose the strike zone dragged down his overall line. In 2009, he’s made progress on both fronts. In 39.2 frames, Cueto has a 3.13 FIP, the product of a 2.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.32 in ’08) and 0.45 HR/9. There’s certainly been some lucky bounces here to produce that 1.59 ERA: Cueto’s BABIP is .260, his strand rate is near 90% and his 4.2 HR/FB% is extremely low.

On the bright side, he’s shaved a little more than one walk per nine innings off his 2008 total (2.50 BB/9 this year, 3.52 in ’08). While his K rate (7.26 K/9) is down from last season (8.17), the overall net effect is positive (as Justin pointed out in the comments section, Cueto’s K/PA figure is slightly higher this year due to his efficiency). Cueto’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP), based on a pitcher’s K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, checks in at 4.34 (4.62 last season).

Jay Bruce, Reds

It’s the all-Reds edition of Stock Watch! A 22 year-old lefty with immense power, Bruce has adapted to major league pitching faster than most anticipated. With a .391 wOBA, 10 big flys and a sweet .262/.342/.570 line, Bruce has certainly been The Boss in 2009. Happily, his control of the strike zone (his biggest hurdle) has improved. Bruce has drawn a walk 10.1% of the time in 2009 (7.4% last year), whiffed less often (20.6% in ’09, 26.6% in ’08), and has cut his Outside-Swing percentage from 30.4% to 25.7%. In other words, he’s already among the best outfielders in the game, and he’ll only get better from here.

Carl Crawford, Rays

Crawford has probably stolen about six bases since I started typing this sentence. Tampa’s swift left fielder has been an absolute terror on the base paths in 2009, going a perfect 22-for-22 on stolen base attempts. With 3 more thefts, Crawford will match his total from an injury-marred 2008 season. If we use Tom Tango’s SB run value of +.19, then Crawford is closing in on half a win added in the stolen base department already.

Fortunately, Crawford is showing progress in other facets of his game as well. His Outside Swing% is down to 24.8%, from last year’s hacktastic 31.5% mark (24.4% MLB average). His 8.8% walk rate isn’t awe-inspiring, but it is the highest mark of his career. With 1.7 Wins Above Replacement, Crawford has been one of the ten most productive position players in the game.

Edwin Jackson, Tigers

Let’s give credit where it’s due: Jackson has been pretty darned effective in 2009. He came to Detroit with a reputation as a radar-gun curiosity who didn’t miss many bats or control the zone particularly well, but he’s making strides. Jackson isn’t a 2.60 ERA pitcher (duh), but his K/BB ratio is an impressive 3.18. With 7 K’s per nine and 2.20 BB/9, Jackson holds a 3.51 FIP. He’s looking more legitimate by the start.

David Wright, Mets

Wright’s early-season scuffle raised both panic and ire, but he’s just fine now. His wOBA is back up to .367, and he’s popped enough extra-base hits of late to raise his Isolated Power to .174. Wright is batting .364/.436/.697 in May. Hopefully, you didn’t sell low. One aspect of Wright’s game that is curiously diminishing is his stolen base ability. He was 34-for-39 in 2007, 15-for-20 in 2008 and just 5-for-10 in 2009.

Stock Down

Scott Kazmir, Rays

What happens to a control-challenged southpaw when he loses his ability to dominate hitters? Take a gander at Kazmir to find out. The 25 year-old’s walk rate has increased for a fourth straight season (4.97 BB/9), but he’s just not fooling batters the way he used to (7.11 K/9). Kazmir’s fastball velocity has dipped from 91.7 MPH in 2008 to just 89.9 MPH in 2009, and his hard, mid-80’s power slider is now more of a low-octane frisbee (80.4 MPH). With just 46.4% of his offerings crossing home plate (48.9% MLB average) and opponents making contact 84.3% of the time (75.1% career average), something is wrong with the Rays’ former ace.

Mike Aviles, Royals

Tony Pena Jr. might be on the DL, but Aviles has compensated by doing his best impression. After an unexpectedly productive rookie season, Aviles’ bat has flat lined in 2009. Impatient to a fault (2.9 BB%), the 28 year-old isn’t getting any favorable bounces on balls put in play (.247 BABIP). His nefarious .226 wOBA is fifth-worst among all batters, and he’s been nearly a win below replacement level with the lumber already. With lackluster play in the field as well (-12.6 UZR/150), Aviles has been an anchor on Kansas City’s hopes of staying competitive.

Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks

Never exactly known for his feats of strength (career .150 ISO and .431 SLG%), Jackson has been downright punchless this season. His microscopic .071 ISO ranks among the worst in the game. Jackson is not this bad, mind you: his .210 BABIP is incredibly low, so he should revert back more toward his usual level of production as the season goes on. The question is: is that enough? Underpowered as a first baseman, Jackson’s work in left field is still under review. Singles-hitting corner players aren’t exactly in vogue, so the 27 year-old is going to have to show some thump to do more good than harm to Arizona’s dwindling playoff chances.

Jeff Francoeur, Braves

Francoeur is this generation’s Joe Carter, compiling counting stats that mask the fact that he’s sort of a drag on his team’s offense. Frenchy continues to show next to no progress in terms of plate discipline, wildly hacking at 34.6% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Not coincidentally, his First-Pitch Strike% is a career-high 71 percent (57.6% MLB average). Francoeur has gotten behind 0-1 or put the ball in play on the first pitch more than any other batter in the majors. With a wretched .290 OBP and little pop (.136 ISO), he’s produced a .299 wOBA. Showing apparent apathy toward working the count, Francoeur is an absolute mess at the plate right now.

Ian Snell, Pirates

Snell scarcely resembles the guy who posted a 4.01 FIP during the 2007 campaign. After walking 2.94 batters per nine innings during that year, Snell’s control took a giant leap back in ’08 (4.87 BB/9) and continues to go south in 2009 (5.4 BB/9). His K rate, 8.18 during his first full season in the big in 2006, checks in at just 6.08 this year (the continuation of a four-year decline). He’s not fooling much of anyone, and has put just 44.3% of his pitches within the strike zone (48.9% MLB average). Snell will continue to take his turns on a pitching-starved staff, but he hasn’t pitched like an above-average starter in quite some time. His FIP is 5.33.

As mentioned yesterday, the Cincinnati Reds outfield is something of a mess right now. However, there is one leviathan-sized exception: 21 year-old prodigy Jay Bruce. Since the Texas native was selected out of high school with the 12th overall selection in the 2005 amateur entry draft, Bruce has been “The Boss” of minor league pitchers by compiling a career .308/.366/.555 minor league line. In his first action in the big leagues, the 6-3, 205 pounder held his own (.254/.314/.453). That’s pretty darned impressive for a guy in the majors at an age where some players are college juniors. To determine what we can expect from Bruce in 2009 and beyond, let’s take a closer look at his minor league resume.

2005
GCL Reds (Rookie ball, GCL): 122 AB, .270/.331/.500, 9BB%, 25.4K%, .230 ISO
Billings (Rookie ball, Pioneer League): 70 AB, .257/.358/.457, 15.7BB%, 31.4K%, .200 ISO

Right off the bat, Bruce showed the lefty pop that led Baseball America to liken him to a young Larry Walker who possessed the “strength and skill to eventually hit 30-plus homers.” In a small sample size, he showed the ability to drive the ball, though the K rates were a bit high. BA noted that he could occasionally become “antsy” at the dish. Still, as far as debuts go, this was an extremely promising one. Prior to the 2006 season, BA ranked Bruce as the 76th-best prospect in the minors.

2006
Dayton (Low-A, Midwest League): 444 AB, .291/.355/.516, 9BB%, 23.9K%, .225 ISO

In a league that tends to suppress power, Bruce posted a .220+ ISO as a 19-year old. He popped 16 home runs while compiling 63 extra-base hits overall. Suffice it to say, those power projections looked spot-on after his full-season debut. Prior to the 2007 season, Baseball America ranked Bruce as the 14th-best prospect in the minors, again making comparisons to Walker. His walk rate was solid, if unspectacular, and the K rate was a little high, but few teenagers show as much in-game power as Bruce did at such an early stage of development. As BA noted, “he can show more plate discipline, but the Reds will happily live with some strikeouts if Bruce continues to pound the ball.”

2007
Sarasota (High-A, Florida State League): 268 AB, .325/.380/.586, 8.2BB%, 25K%, .261 ISO
Chattanooga (AA, Southern League): 66 AB, .333/.405/.652, 10.8BB%, 30.3K%, .318 ISO
Louisville (AAA, International League): 187 AB, .305/.356/.567, 7.4BB%, 25.7K%, .262 ISO

Talk about a quick rise through the minor leagues. Bruce obliterated the baseball at every stop, hitting a combined 26 homers and 80 extra-base hits (!) between his three stops. His control of the strike zone remained a bit unrefined, as the lofty strikeout rates and moderate walk rates attest, but for a 20 year-old to sprint through the minors and tear the seams off of the ball at every level is mighty impressive. Prior to the ’08 season, Baseball America ranked Bruce as the very best prospect in the game, rating his power as a 65-70 while rating all of his tools as at least a 55 on the 20-80 scouting scale (50 is considered major league average). In other words, BA ranked every aspect of Bruce’s game as above the norm.

2008
Louisville: 184 AB, .364/.403/.630, 6.1BB%, 24.5K%, .266 ISO
Cincinnati (MLB): 413 AB, .254/.314/.453, 7.4 BB% 26.6K%, .199 ISO

After aggressively punishing the International League pitching staff for a while, Bruce was called up to Cincinnati in late May and proceeded to cream everything in sight, posting an absurd 1.575 OPS in 25 PA. He cooled off over the next few months before posting solid numbers in September and early October (.924 OPS in 92 PA). The strikeout rate remains something of an issue (his contact rate with the Reds was a low 71.61%) and he was a bit liberal in terms of swinging at pitches thrown out of the strike zone (30.39 O-Swing%). However, considering Bruce’s lukewarm walk rates in the minors, a 7.4BB% is rather promising for a 21 year-old cutting his teeth in the majors, as is the near-.200 ISO.

Bruce is obviously an extremely valuable long-term property. In keeper leagues, he should be near the top of your list. However, I would caution against going too hog-wild for him in 2009. He’s a very bright young player with star-caliber talent, but he also has some rough edges to smooth out in the plate discipline department. Select Bruce knowing that he has the ability to become a star, but also knowing that he might not quite reach that level this upcoming season.