Archive for Jason Varitek

First off, a very hearty congratulations to the St. Louis Cardinals on their hard-fought 2011 World Series championship.  That was certainly a performance for the ages, from the late season comeback to steal the Wild Card spot to the Game 6 heroics that helped push the Series to the brink.  But while the conclusion of the World Series brings the end of the 2011 season, it also brings us to the official beginning of the 2012 season.  That’s right, it’s free agency time!  The Hot Stove League can be one of the most exciting times as teams get ready to rebuild for a run at next season’s championship.  It also keeps us fantasy leaguers on our toes as we too try to rebuild and prepare for a run at our own title next year.  Players have officially filed, so let’s take a look at the fee agent catchers and whose potential move could have notable fantasy impact. Read the rest of this entry »

As the MLB non-waiver trade deadline approaches, fantasy owners should be paying close attention to which teams may be buyers, which teams may be sellers, and which relevant fantasy players could be on the move.  A look at which players whose contracts expire at season’s end and are headed into free agency is as good a place to start as any. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s backstop day at the RG, as we debuted our rankings and then profiled the top five targets and some deep sleepers. Now it’s time to look at the middle of the rankings, identify some guys that are falling in this year’s drafts, and decide if they merit more love.

Matt Wieters
Once projected to be a superstar in his rookie season, the shine has seemingly come off of Wieters, and he’s all the way down to near-double digits in our rankings. Here’s a thing I discovered while researching this piece about Carlos Santana, however: it does seem that catchers take a little longer to develop their offense. Whether it’s because they focus on defense and game calling first, or because they are one of the worst offensive positions overall, it takes a few years. Switch-hitting catchers from Victor Martinez to Jason Varitek and Jorge Posada all took until 25 or later to bust out. Wieters is 24 and that, as well as his minor league record, is probably the best statistic in his favor. With incremental improvements in his walk rate, strikeout rate, swinging strike rate, and ISO, there are other statistics that back up the idea that perhaps Wieters shouldn’t be sliding this far. Consider taking him slightly ahead of his ADPs (130.04 at MDC, 111.2 at Yahoo) in order to snag his upside.

Jorge Posada
If age is the reason to be up-beat about Matt Wieters, then it’s the reason that Jorge Posada is falling in drafts and rankings this year. And of course we have to temper any expectations that we might have for him because of his age. The record for at-bats for a catcher over 39 is Carlton Fisk with 454 (second is Fisk at 452, third is Bob Boone at 405, and those are the only seasons over 400). Fisk is also the only person to ever hit more than double-digit home runs after 39, as he hit 23 at 39, 19 at 40, 13 at 41 and 18 at 42. So, if you’re taking Posada, you’re basically hoping he’ll be the best or second- best old catcher ever. Of course, that’s possible, because Posada’s 22 home runs in 2009 were the third-best number ever by a catcher over 37. He’s done it before. Oh, and he’s going to DH this year, which will have to be counted as a positive even if he hasn’t done so well in that role before. It should, at the very least, help him get more ABs.

Miguel Montero
Montero is young-ish (27), and once hit .294 with 16 home runs, and yet he’s falling in drafts this year (125.6 ADP in MDC, 158.2 in Yahoo). The ADPs might be reasonable, but is he worth picking after the tenth round is completed? Maybe (hah). A full, healthy season from Montero could produce a home run total in the mid-teens and a decent batting average for a catcher, judging from his career .267 number in the category. Can he stay healthy? He’s only officially hit the DL twice in his carer – for right knee surgery in 2010 (62 days missed) and for a fractured finger in 2008 (31 days missed) – and yet he’s averaged only 313 PAs since 2007. It looks like Montero is best drafted as part of a quantity, not quality approach late in your drafts. Pick him and Posada late in the game and you’ll probably have a decent catcher this year, one way or the other.

When the Boston Red Sox re-signed backstop Jason Varitek to a one-year, $5 million deal with a mutual 2010 option this past winter, questions were raised as to how much the move was motivated by emotion as opposed to empiricism. After all, ‘Tek (a Sox player since being acquired along with Derek Lowe in a July 1997 deadline deal for Heathcliff Slocumb) was entering his age-37 season, and was coming off a bleak 2008 campaign in which he posted a .299 wOBA (.220/.313/.359).

Granted, those who don the tools of ignorance generally don’t light up the scoreboard (the average catcher posted a .255/.324/.389 line in 2008), but Varitek accumulated just 1.2 Wins Above Replacement in ’08. Baseball Prospectus scribe Christina Kahrl called bringing the veteran switch-hitter back to Boston “spending money for its own sake because you didn’t spend it on things that actually help you.”

Flash forward to May 28th, as the Red Sox take on the Twins. A catcher dominates the game (well, before getting tossed, anyway). He clubs two homers, pushing his team to victory in a 3-1 affair. The backstop is shockingly in the double-digits in dingers already.

No, I’m not talking about Joe Mauer. With two solo shots yesterday afternoon, Boston’s purportedly cooked catcher now has 10 home runs on the season. Through 150 plate appearances, Varitek owns a .248/.320/.541 line, good for a .360 wOBA that ranks third among all qualified catchers. Only part-time first baseman Victor Martinez and part-time DH Mike Napoli best Varitek, so you could say that he’s the leader in the clubhouse among those who are consistently behind the dish (if you drop the PA threshold to 100 to include those bitten by the injury bug, he ranks 8th, which is still pretty impressive).

Nothing has drastically shifted in his batted ball profile or plate discipline stats, but Varitek is driving the ball as well as he ever has during the first two months of the season. His .293 ISO is leaps and bounds above any of his full-season totals; the last time he eclipsed .200 was 2005. To boot, he’s whiffing less so far, too: after K’ing a career-high 28.8% in 2008, Varitek has pared that number down to 22.6%. It’s hard to say that he’s getting lucky on balls put in play either: while his line drive percentage is low (14.3%), so is his BABIP (.247). He’s just banging plenty of extra-base hits.

Of course, it would be insane to expect this sort of performance to continue for the length of the season. However, Varitek is certainly looking like a worthy starter in deep leagues. ZiPS projects Varitek to post a .235/.326/.412 line the rest of the way. That’s not flashy, but one could do worse than giving Varitek a look. Let’s not write his baseball eulogy just yet.