Archive for Jason Motte

There seems to be plenty to love about the Cardinals bullpen here in 2014, particularly from a fantasy standpoint. And we’re not just talking about saves here. Should your league count holds and use stats such as K/9 or HRA, then this is the pen you want to sift through on draft day. The arms are young, electric and should miss an awful lot of bats this season. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2013 version of the Cardinals bullpen seems to be littered with depth, specialists and flashes some upside that should make for an interesting year, both in real and fake baseball.

The Closer:

Jason Motte

Motte finished 2012 42-of-49 in save chances with a 2.75 ERA (3.12 FIP) and a 5.02 K/BB. His 42 saves and 5.02 K/BB were each career bests with a minimum of 20 innings pitched, and good enough for a third and twelfth place finish among qualified relievers respectively last year. The key to the righty’s recent success could be associated with the increased use of the cutter over the past three seasons. The flamethrower’s velocity and ability to induce swinging strikes have increased and his xFIP has decreased in each of those seasons. The Cardinals’ closer continues to get better and maybe the best is yet to come. He’s ascended into the top of the second tier of relievers and should be one of the top three from that position selected in your draft. He will continue to provide impressive ratios, whiff batters and tally the saves your team desperately needs — if you’re willing to pay the price.

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• Jason Motte took to the bump tonight for the third night in-a-row — and fifth straight game for the Cardinals, dating back to September 15th. Motte surrendered an infield single to Matt Dominguez, but struck out the Astros in the ninth en route to his 38th save in 45 chances this year. The former 19th round pick sports a 2.94 ERA (0.95 WHIP) on the year, with a 5.64 K/BB — and his 38th save is tops in the National League.
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• Andrew Bailey struck out two batters in a scoreless inning of work today for the Triple-A Pawtucket Red Sox of the International League. In doing so, Bailey achieved one of the essential goals of his rehab assignment prior to returning to the Red Sox — pitching on back-to-back days. In five rehab outings, Bailey has surrendered just one earned run while posting a 9.0 K/BB. The Red Sox reliever isn’t quite sure where his next stop will be, but based on his successful rehab appearances, “he can’t see it being much longer.” In his stead, Alfredo Aceves has done a fine job, nailing down 23-of-29 save opportunities with a 4.21 ERA (4.32 xFIP) and a 2.43 K/BB. However, Aceves’ recent struggles — two blown saves and an 11.57 ERA in the last week — could mean that Bailey will be eased back into the closer’s role sooner than later.
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• Jason Motte rattled off three consecutive strikeouts in the top of the ninth today en route to his 22nd save of the season and a 7-4 Cardinals victory over the Hanleywood Dodgers. Motte has quietly collected those 22 saves in 26 chances this year and has now locked down nine consecutive opportunities. The Cardinals’ ninth inning man is sporting a fine 2.72 ERA (3.37 xFIP) and a 3.58 K/BB (25.9 K%, 7.2 BB%) on the year.
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With all the hubub surrounding two nice prospects getting their first licks in the major leagues, let’s not neglect the waiver wire. We all need a little waiver love, and almost none of us have a certain Nationals pitcher on our wire. Instead, let’s look at a couple players that should almost definitely be on your waiver wire today.

Jason Motte, St. Louis (2%)
Okay, maybe if your league counts holds, Motte won’t be available. Then again, he only has four holds on the season, and he probably won’t be closing any time soon unless Ryan Franklin goes down with a (possibly beard-related?) injury. But it’s worth pointing out that Motte has finally harnessed some of his raw power and is pitching the best ball of his career. Coming up through the system, we all knew this converted catcher had gas (95.9 MPH fastball career), but there were questions about his secondary stuff. Questions like: Does he even have another pitch? Well, he’s still throwing the fastball over 70% of the time, so he does like to bring the heat. And he’s gone into extended periods of focusing on the secondary stuff and then forgetting about it. But he’s finally throwing the curveball regularly (10.2% this year), and though linear weights don’t love the pitch yet (-1.1 runs this year), obviously something is working in the overall package. On June 6th, he gave his first run in 9 and 2/3 innings, and during that ten-game stretch, he had a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It’s that nice walk rate (2.31), combined with his booming fastball and developing curve, that makes him an interesting ratios and strikeouts reliever on teams in deeper leagues. Especially if you’re over your innings pace already.

Milton Bradley, Seattle (4% owned)
Yeah, I know. Groan. He’s struggling through a .274 wOBA, 67 wRC+ kind of season. He’s striking out at a career-worst rate (31.4%) and walking at a career-low rate (7.8%). His ISO is his worst since he was in Montreal, and we can’t even blame his BABIP (.283) much. He’s seeing a sports psychologist, and he’s a risk to leave the team at any time. In some ways, there couldn’t be a worse candidate for your fantasy team. All of that is true, and there is very little silver lining. One okay factor is that he still has an average-ish line drive rate (18.3%), and another is that at 32 years old and of above-average athleticism, he’s not so old that we would expect a drop off this precipitous. But the final, most important piece of information regarding Bradley is this: He’s playing. Every day. Even in an 18-team, 5-OF league, all 90 starting outfielders in baseball are relevant, and leagues come deeper than this. Put him on your bench if you can because warm, starting, bodies are valuable if your league is deep enough. Then all you can do is hope he recovers some of his old form. (Hey, the psychologist thing really “worked” for John Smoltz.)

Well, we’ve already taken a look at the top rookie pitchers in the American League, so let’s have a gander at the Senior Circuit’s best young hurlers. Warning: The depth amongst the starters is not as good as it is in the American League.

St. Louis’ Jason Motte was absolutely lights-out in spring training and won the closer’s role… as much as any rookie pitcher can win a role for manager Tony LaRussa. A couple shaky games later, though, he was on the outside looking in. Motte hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last nine appearances but veteran Ryan Franklin has established himself as the club’s closer. Middle relievers rarely receive consideration for the Rookie of the Year award, but you never know.

One of my pre-season favorites for the NL rookie pitcher of the year, James McDonald has struggled to say the least. He currently has an 8.16 ERA (6.17 FIP) and has pitched himself out of the starting rotation for the first-place Dodgers. McDonald’s lack of control has been his downfall as he’s walked 14 batters in 14.1 innings of work.

Jordan Zimmermann won the No. 5 spot in the Washington Nationals’ starting rotation in spring training, but the club did not need five starters until the middle of the first month so he began the year in Triple-A. Since being recalled, Zimmermann has pitched well in two of his three starts (The stinker came against St. Louis). The 2007 second round draft pick is still getting comfortable in the Majors and he’s allowed 20 hits and three walks in 17 innings of work. He’s also struck out 14 batters. Zimmermann needs to try and avoid the long ball (2.12 HR/9). When all is said and done, the right-hander could have the best numbers of any of the rookie pitchers in 2009 but it remains to be seen if the Rookie of the Year voters will lose him in the mess that is Washington. His teammate Shairon Martis is also having a nice season so far in the Nats rotation.

Like Scott Richmond of the Jays, Bobby Parnell is another talented rookie hurler that gets overlooked despite playing in a large market like New York, likely because he is a middle reliever who gets a ton of outs by putting the ball in play. The right-hander has a 1.38 ERA (3.10 FIP) in 13 innings so far this season. He has walked just four batters with eight strikeouts and he hasn’t allowed a home run. Parnell still has room to get better as he has not been inducing quite as many groundballs as he traditionally does.

It’s no secret that I hate the fact Japanese players are eligible for the Rookie if the Year awards. Baltimore’s Koji Uehara, 34, and Atlanta’s Kenshin Kawakami, 33, have years of experience while playing in Japan. Uehara spent nine years in the Japanese Central League and is currently leading all MLB ‘rookies’ in innings pitched and strikeouts (by one over Richmond). Kawakami, 33, spent 10 years in the Japanese Central League. Despite the added experience, though, the right-hander has struggled with his control and currently has a 6.41 ERA (5.54 FIP) in 26.2 innings of work.

This season I am debuting a new feature that will hopefully catch on and also help fantasy baseball owners. The Prospect Watcher will breakdown one (or two) rookie player’s hitting performance. The format of the feature will likely evolve during the course of the season as I find out what works and doesn’t work. As well, if you have any suggestions just let me know by posting them here or by e-mailing me.

At-Bat 1:

Pitching Performance of Note: St. Louis Cardinals’ rookie Jason Motte, who earned the right to close games to begin the season with a dominating spring, blew his first save opportunity of the year, which ultimately resulted in a loss for the club. In one inning of work, Motte allowed four runs on four hits. The 4-2 game for St. Louis ended 6-4 for Pittsburgh. Freddy Sanchez, Eric Hinske and Jack Wilson all hit doubles off of Motte.

Earlier today, we took a gander at high-octane closer candidate Chris Perez. However, Perez is not the only home-grown, gas-pumping reliever who could take over ninth-inning duties for the Cardinals. Many envision Perez becoming St. Louis’ stopper, but Jason Motte poses a formidable roadblock.

While Perez was a well-regarded prospect, developed at a major college program (The University of Miami) that has churned out plenty of high draft picks as of late, Motte’s baseball origins are far less conventional or glamorous. The 6-0, 195 pounder was originally selected in the 19th round of the 2003 draft out of Iona as a catcher. Motte was always lauded for his superb arm strength behind the dish. But the whole…batting thing? It wasn’t really working out. In 614 career minor league at-bats, Motte “hit” a ghastly .191/.220/.233.

Thoroughly convinced that Motte was unable to handle professional pitching, the Cardinals organization decided to shift him to the mound in 2006, hoping that his cannon arm would translate well. Motte worked a total of 39 innings split between State College (New York Penn League) and Quad Cities (Low-A), and the initial results were promising: he posted a 38/7 K/BB ratio with a 2.69 ERA.

The following year, Motte spend just 10 innings with Palm Beach of the High-A Florida State League before being pushed up to AA Springfield, quite the leap for a converted catcher with less than 50 career innings under his belt to that point. Despite his inexperience, Motte made opposing batters look like they were the ones new to their craft, collecting 63 strikeouts in just 49 innings. His control was less than desirable (22 free passes), but he posted a solid 2.96 FIP for Springfield.

St. Louis continued to move Motte through the system aggressively this past season, starting him off at AAA Memphis. Motte had made a habit of missing plenty of bats during his rapid ascent, but his strikeout numbers in the Pacific Coast League were borderline ridiculous: in 66.2 innings, he punched out an absurd 110 batters (14.85 K/9). That figure led the PCL among pitchers tossing at least 60 frames: Dirk Hayhurst finished a very, very distant second with 10.5 K/9. Motte was still occasionally wild (3.51 BB/9), but he posted a 2.29 FIP for Memphis.

Just a few short years after his transition, Motte made his major league debut this past September. Nothing can really be inferred from an 11-inning sample, but the 26 year-old did make a good first impression as he whiffed 16 and walked three. He also showcased his explosive, bat-breaking four-seam fastball: Motte’s average heater came in at 96.6 MPH. He coupled that with an 88 MPH slider, giving batters a “harder, hardest” combo that leaves little time for reaction.

As Baseball America notes, Motte is still messing around with a few different secondary pitches in order to see what sticks: “Motte showed no effective second pitch during his big league stint. He has worked on a slider, cutter and splitter but none is reliable yet.” BA also notes that Motte’s heat is “straight as an arrow” (not surprising, as four-seamers impart the most back-spin on the baseball; the trade-off for the decreased resistance is less tailing action).

It is also worth noting that as Motte jumped levels, he became more of a flyball pitcher: according to Minor League Splits, he posted a 39.1 GB% in AA in 2007 and a 36.7 GB% in AAA this past year. That could lead to a few more souvenirs, though New Busch has done quite the number on HR production since its 2006 opening: Busch III has deflated homers by 16 percent from ’06 to ’08.

Motte is similar to Perez in a number of ways, as both are righties with excellent velocity, intermittent control and nasty-if-inconsistent sliders. It basically seems like a coin flip as to which guy ends up getting the call in the ninth inning as opposed to the eighth. Like with Perez, fantasy owners will want to watch Motte this spring to see if his blazing fastball and ability to fool hitters is enough to counteract average control and just occasionally effective off-speed stuff.