Archive for Jason Marquis

As we sit and wait for all the big-named free agents to find themselves new homes, it’s time to start thinking about strategy for next year.  There are numerous of ways to go about drafting your team and you’re going to hear plenty of do’s and don’ts from a variety of people.  So allow me to chime in here first and tell you why punting saves should not be in your plans when developing a proper draft strategy.  Some people see no harm in it and tell you to just bulk up elsewhere.  I disagree.  It’s an automatic concession of points to your competition and immediately puts you at a disadvantage.

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, owners playing in league-specific formats are going to be in for a hard time. When players change leagues, some owners are going to get hosed and some owners are going to get lucky. With all of that in mind, here’s some advice on how to handle a handful of starters who could get dealt.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 16.

Scott Baker – After missing a start before the All-Star break with a sore elbow, Baker is in line for two starts this week at home against the Indians and Tigers the top two teams in the AL Central. But the Indians are 28-34 since starting off the season 20-8 while the Tigers have played .500 ball over their last 32 games, so neither team is hot. Baker has been outstanding at home this year, where he has a 4-1 record with a 1.97 ERA. While he’s allowed 9 HR in 65 road innings, Baker has permitted just 3 HR in 45.2 IP at home. He is a risky play due to the unknown status of his elbow, but if he is in the lineup you’ll want him in yours to take advantage of the home starts.

Mark Buehrle – A pitcher who traditionally outperforms his xFIP, 2011 is no different for Buehrle, as he has a 3.42 ERA compared to a 4.06 xFIP. After getting knocked around in four of his first five starts, Buehrle has been a reliable pitcher over his last 13 games. He has a 2.72 ERA in that span with 12 Quality Starts. Buehrle has two road starts this week and he has pitched better this year at home. But he goes up against the Royals and Indians. Kansas City is the worst team in the AL while the Indians rank 14th in OPS against LH starters. Look for Buehrle’s strong pitching to continue and keep him in your lineup.

Chris Capuano – This week Capuano has a home-and-home with the Marlins and Clay Hensley. Capuano has a 4.12 ERA this year but he’s been better than that most of the season. In his last 13 games he has a 3.59 ERA with 68 Ks in 77.1 IP. Capuano does not go deep into games but when he keeps the ball in the park he gives his team a chance to win. He’s allowed 13 HR this season and nine of those in his last 77.1 IP. However, the Marlins are 10th in the NL in HR, just under the league average. Neither Sun Life Stadium nor Citi Field is a big HR park so this appears to be a favorable week for Capuano.

Jason Hammel – Perhaps no pitcher in baseball is happier that Interleague play is over than Hammel. In four starts against the AL, Hammel allowed 17 ER in 23 IP for a 6.65 ERA. Against the NL, Hammel has a 3.59 ERA. He has favorable matchups this week with a home start against the inconsistent Derek Lowe and a road start against the very hittable Zach Duke. The Rockies are not as potent in road games as they are in Coors Field but Chase Field is also a good hitter’s park and Colorado is second in the NL with a .758 OPS versus lefty starters. Chances are he’s on the waiver wire in a mixed league and Hammel makes an excellent streaming option this week.

Jason Marquis – In his first 13 games, Marquis was 7-2 with a 3.67 ERA and a 47/23 SO/BB ratio. Since then he’s 0-2 with a 5.26 ERA with 11 BB and 13 Ks in 25.2 IP. His xFIP is still 70 points below his career average, so there’s still plenty of potential regression left for Marquis. He has two road starts this week and his ERA is 4.74 away from home, 1.48 higher than his mark at Nationals Park. If you picked him off the waiver wire, you likely got some good mileage out of Marquis already. But it’s time to quit while you’re ahead and put him on your bench this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 16 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Lee, Jimenez, A. Sanchez, Liriano, Colon, Pineda, Billingsley, Hellickson, Ogando, Burnett, Vogelsong, Stauffer, Beachy, Lohse, Lowe, Wolf, Gee, Guthrie, Porcello, Collmenter, McDonald, Carmona, Cecil, Lyles, Chatwood, Willis, Duke, Hensley, Lopez, Davies

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 14 pitchers and how they fared.

Lewis – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 4.85 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 13 IP, 7 ER
Marcum – Advised to sit. 9 Ks, 5.25 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 12 IP, 7 ER
Rodriguez – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 7.94 ERA, 1.765 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 10 ER
Stauffer – Advised to start. W, 2 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.417 WHIP, 12.0 IP, 4 ER
Zimmermann – Advised to start. W, 11 Ks, 2.92 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 12.1 IP, 4 ER

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 17

Jon Garland – Earlier in the year it was pretty easy with Garland. You simply benched him for his home starts and inserted him back in the lineup for his road outings. But Garland in his last five starts has a 2.73 ERA and two of those games have been at home and both were Quality Starts. A home start versus Philadelphia could be dicey, but that should be made up for in a road start in pitcher-friendly Citi Field against the punchless Mets.

Tommy Hunter – After getting pounded in his major league debut last season, Hunter has had an impressive five outings for the Rangers in 2009. And yes, he has unquestionably been lucky so far, with a .256 BABIP and an 87 percent strand rate. But I like the 23-year old to maintain his good fortune for at least one more week with home starts against the Tigers and Mariners.

Jason Marquis – Usually I avoid recommending starting the top pitchers. But since not everyone has gotten the memo on Marquis, I figured I would mention him. Can anyone else remember a season where the NL leader in wins after the All-Star break might be available on the waiver wire in your league? Marquis is a free agent in 51.5 percent of ESPN leagues. He does have a blister problem but is scheduled this week for road starts at the Mets and at the Reds.

Joe Saunders – Through the first 15 games of the season, Saunders was living large and was cruising along with an 8-4 record and 3.66 ERA despite rotten peripherals, continuing his path from 2008. But in his last five outings Saunders has a 9.82 ERA and only some fine work by Angels hitters have kept his record at 0-2. Maybe it is a bad stretch or maybe it is regression finally catching up to him, but either way it is hard to put him in the lineup this week for two starts.

Randy Wolf – After undergoing a rough patch in June, Wolf has rebounded with five straight Quality Starts with 25 Ks in 31.2 innings in that stretch. His peripherals still suggest a pitcher benefiting from luck, but owners should role the dice with Wolf this week. He has two road starts, but has been a better pitcher away from Chavez Ravine. Wolf has a 4-2 record with a 2.90 ERA in road games this year, a full run lower than his home ERA.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 17 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lincecum, Wainwright, F. Hernandez, Hamels, Burnett, Beckett, Carpenter, Oswalt, Billingsley, Zambrano, Weaver, Jurrjens, W. Rodriguez, Nolasco, Shields, Harden, Danks, Washburn, Romero, Arroyo, Pelfrey, Buchholz, Galarraga, Maholm, Zito, Correia, Bannister, Pavano, Moyer, O. Perez, Cahill, Perkins, Padilla, Suppan, H. Bailey, Mazzaro, Stammen, Geer, Hill, Burns, Berken, Chen.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Hopefully sometime last week you were able to pull off a Kosuke Fukudome for Justin Upton trade. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of trade targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Jose Guillen – Much like Raul Ibanez, Guillen goes through streaks where he just crushes the ball. In 2008 he had a 31-game stretch where he batted .369 with 8 HR and 29 RBIs. In 2007 he had a 53-game stretch where he batted .336 with 10 HR and 42 RBIs. He was hurt in 2006 but in 2005 he had a 30-game stretch where he batted .327 with 8 HR and 21 RBIs. So what, you may be thinking, you can find lots of guys with streaks like that if you cherry pick the end points. Well, how many of those guys are likely to be on the waiver wire or not valued highly by their current owners? Guillen spent a couple of weeks on the disabled list but now looks like he’s going on one of those hot spells. Get him and enjoy a month of great production at very little cost to you.

Cliff Lee – Okay, with a 1-4 record and an ERA approaching four, Lee is not going to win the Cy Young Award this year. But his peripherals show a pitcher who should be solid from here on out. Lee has a 2.80 K/BB ratio, his HR/9 is at a nice 0.69 percent and the 90.9 he is averaging on his fastball is a career best. Lee is being hurt by a .364 BABIP. His lifetime mark in the category is .304 and he has never had a mark over .315 in his career.

Kendry Morales – After failing to win a full-time job the past three seasons, Morales fell into the “Overrated Cuban Star” category. But with little competition for the first base job, Morales figures to get 500 or more at-bats this season. And the last two years at Triple-A, he has a .341 batting average. He is probably not a threat to hit 30 HR, but a guy who can hit .315 with 20-25 HR in your corner infield slot is not a bad thing to have.

Rich Harden – The usual MO with Harden is he’s great when he’s healthy but you have no idea how long he’ll be able to hold it together. This year he’s been (knock on Kerry Wood) healthy, but the results have been less than stellar, with two of his five starts being pretty awful. Right now he is being really hurt by walks and the long ball. Harden always walks his fair share of batters but the HR rate is likely to go down. He has a lifetime HR/9 of 0.73 and only once has he posted a rate over 1, with his 1.05 mark in seven games in 2007. Right now, Harden’s HR/9 sits at 1.82 after five starts. If you need to make up ground in pitching, this is a high-risk, high-reward gamble to consider.

Troy Tulowitzki – A 4-for-39 stretch is really dragging down Tulowitzki’s overall numbers at this point. But I like the .200 ISO and I just cannot see the combination of a 25.3 percent strikeout rate and a .245 BABIP lasting for much longer.

Trade

Hunter Pence – If you were going to describe Pence, how would you do it? Is he an average hitter or a HR guy or a SB threat? Perhaps he contributes in every category but does he really help you in any of them? His batted ball profile (12.8% LD, 60.3% GB, 26.9% FB) suggests average hitter, but he has a .300 AVG with a .319 BABIP. It is hard to imagine the average staying that high going forward. It looks like 2008 is the high end of what to expect from Pence, and that is only if he can keep his HR/FB ratio in double digits, something no one else of the 18 players with a GB rate over 50 percent was able to accomplish last year.

James Shields – The strikeouts are down, the walks are up, the home runs allowed are up and yet somehow Shields’ ERA is almost identical to where it was a year ago. It is funny what a .245 BABIP and an 81.7 percent strand rate can do for a fellow. Sell high before the hits start falling in against him.

Magglio Ordonez – The batting average will probably rebound some but the power is gone. He hit two home runs in April, which was the eighth-straight month in which he failed to hit more than five homers. See if you can find someone who remembers 2007-vintage Ordonez and views him as a buy-low candidate.

Jason Marquis – It was hard to imagine a worse fit than Marquis pitching in Colorado. He had a lifetime 1.42 WHIP and a 1.51 K/BB ratio. So of course right now he is sitting at 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA, a 1.42 K/BB and a 1.19 WHIP. It is going to be hard to find someone who wants to trade for him, but at the very least ask around and see if you can find a taker.

Jeff Francoeur – All we hear these days is how newspapers are in trouble. Papers are either shutting down or are on life support. Even the venerable Boston Globe is on shaky ground. But you never hear anything about the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. And that is because they write at least one glowing article on Francoeur per week. He has reworked his swing and he is not striking out. This is a player that it seems people are actively rooting for to do well. Yet his average is nothing to get excited about and he is not hitting for great power. And it is debatable if he is going to maintain a K% less than half of his career average going forward.

*****

We are discussing having either a mail bag or a live chat to answer trade questions. So, instead of posting trade proposals and asking for feedback, please respond as to which of the two formats you would prefer seeing. A mail bag is easier on our end and is something we could get going sooner. A live chat offers a much quicker response but will require the RotoGraphs authors to coordinate our schedules, which may not match yours.

As always, comments on the individual players listed here are welcome and encouraged.