Archive for Jason Grilli

This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will continue to break them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.

Closer/Setup Men:

Fishing for a closer?

Draft Jenrry Mejia and you may feel like doing this:

Jenrry Mejia. So pumped. pic.twitter.com/iy8HR5yrZu

— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) July 26, 2014

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For my first Bullpen Report, I wanted to provide additional value so I blasted “Enter Sandman” and sprinted toward my office to write this.

Below the report of yesterday’s games, you will find rankings for 5×5 (W,ERA,WHIP,K,SV) and 6×6 (+Holds) leagues based on Zach Sander’s FVARz approach. For reference, I used 108 active Pitchers = 9 P x 12 teams and 25 IP as a qualifier. Why 25? I didn’t want to leave Ken Giles off the list.

But there’s more. In addition to their fantasy value, I’ve z-scored outcomes on the plate appearance level to depict pitcher skill (K%-BB%, Ct%, GB/FB, F-Str%, and IFFB% weighed by their correlations to ERA) and luck (BABIP, HR/FB and LOB% weighed by their correlations to ERA) thus far this season. To back up the top 20 relievers ranked by my “Skill” Score, I also furnished grids on their pitch outcomes, which depicts how well their individual pitches induce whiffs and grounders vs. flies.

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In last year’s Bold Predictions, I strongly advocated Jean Segura and Jarrod Parker, while steering people away from Starlin Castro. Those surely helped fantasy owners to various extents. However, we’ll ignore the fact that I predicted Brett Anderson to be a top-30 starter. Sorry about that.

Let’s get to the bold predictions for 2014.

(1) Chris Carter will hit at least 40 home runs and be a top-25 outfielder.

Earlier this offseason, I noted how Chris Carter’s hitting profile compared favorably to that of Chris Davis from a year ago, leading one to believe the power spike could be possible. Carter has also hit 39 homers in a single season before in the minors, so it’s not as if we’re worried about the requisite power being present. Furthermore, the 27-year-old slugger didn’t do the one thing everyone thought he would do last season: mash the baseball in Minute Maid Park.

Minute Maid Park is extremely friendly to right-handed hitters, largely due to the Crawford Boxes, and Carter did little damage there. If his numbers bounce back at home and he’s able to continue his power-hitting ways on the road, we could be looking at one of the biggest power breakout seasons of the year. Considering he’s currently going 193 overall in drafts — behind the likes of Jed Lowrie, Kendrys Morales, and Alejandro De Aza — I’m buying hard on Chris Carter as we head into the 2014 regular season.

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It’s been a pretty slow day in bullpen country, so here is what I was able to scrape together for tonight:

In today’s “Scheming For Relief” column that I use to rant about middle relievers for holds leagues, LaTroy Hawkins earned a slot in the third tier based on his past thirty days of performance. In the past thirty day prior to this evening’s outing, Hawkins owned a 2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP with seven holds and one save in 12 trips to the bump. He seemed like a solid option to continue gathering holds despite the awful strikeout rate (9.3% K%) over the last month. But with Bobby Parnell on the disabled list, the Mets signaled for the gritty veteran to do away with the Rockies in the top half of the ninth-inning with another save chance on the line. Hawkins needed just 11 pitches to induce a fly out and two ground outs to earn his second save in four chances this season. If you’re chasing saves to finish out the season, you may as well add “old man river” to your squad to see if you can scrape together a few more.
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–Jason Grilli dished a scoreless ninth-inning en route to his 27th save in 28 opportunities as the Pirates earned their league-leading 50th victory by clipping the Brewers, 2-1. In addition to Grilli’s impeccable save conversion percentage, the right-hander owns an impressive 42.7% K%, a 1.82 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP. Grilli’s whiff rates (42.7% K%) appear gaudy and are well-above his career average (21.4% K%), but career bests landing the first strike (61.8% F-Strike%) and inducing swinging strikes (15.7% SwStr%) suggest the spike in strikeouts isn’t exactly a mirage or stroke of luck. If you own shares of the Pirates’ ninth-inning man I wouldn’t be mad if you shopped him around your league — you’d likely get a hefty return on your investment — but as long as health remains in his corner and your squad is in need of saves, ride the wave.

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It was a slow day on the diamond with just five games on the schedule, so here are just a few bullpen notes to hold you over…

Jason Grilli’s early season ninth-inning heroics vaulted him to the number seven slot in the Bullpen Report’s “Updated Consensus Closer Ranks,” and this afternoon’s 14-pitch effort did nothing but solidify that ranking. The Pirates closer faced the minimum in the ninth and struck out the final two Cubbies to remain a perfect 19-for-19 in save chances this year. The two looking strikeouts — courtesy of Luis Valbuena and Welington Castillo — inflated the right-handers whiff rate to 41.4% on the year, which as of tonight, is a major league best. In addition to the fantastic strikeout rate, Grilli lowered his ERA and WHIP to 1.25 and 0.74 WHIP on the year respectively.

To be fair, Jason Grilli isn’t the only story coming out of the Pirates ‘pen these days. Twenty-eight-year-old Mark Melancon owns a 0.72 ERA, 0.80 WHIP a 27.4% K%, a 1.1% BB% and has notched a league-leading 16 holds in 25 trips to the hill. Yes, those numbers are real. Parlay those ratios and whiffs with a scab win here, a scab save there and you could have yourself a top 100 player. Melancon is owned in just 20% of Y! leagues, but at this point, he’ll be more than useful in all 12-team and deeper mixed formats.

Papa Grande shook hands for the fifth time this season as the Tigers closed out the Twins, 7-6. Valverde sat down the Twinkies in order — including two via the strikeout — to raise his strikeout rate to 25% on the season. In 11 appearance since rejoining the Tigers, Valverde is 4-of-4 in save chances with a 0.82 ERA and a 0.54 WHIP. Today’s save pushes Jose Valverde’s career save total up to 282, placing him 28th on the all-time career saves list and only behind Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan and Francisco Rodriguez among those still in the game. Watch out Mo, Jose is just 343 saves away!

There are seven middle relievers that have earned four or more holds in the past two weeks. Joel Peralta (6) notched the most of the bunch, while Trevor Rosenthal and David Robertson are the only two with a minimum of four holds and ten strikeouts. Four of the seven — Jesse Crain, Sean Doolittle, Jake McGee and Trevor Rosenthal — own a perfect 0.00 ERA. And what do you get when you add Rosenthal, McGee and Doolittle’s efforts together over that time? A 2-0 pitcher who sports a glistening 0.00 ERA and a 7.6 K/BB. Yes, that’s Chris Sale territory. Moral of the blurb? If the top 20 starting pitcher you’re looking to acquire continues to elude you, simply stack a few elite middle relievers and get close to the same result — if you have the roster spots.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Damn you, internet! Damn you, hordes of fantasy sports writers churning out an over-abundance of content! It used to be so easy; so much fun. I would dominate my fantasy baseball league year after year and there was no greater ego boost than sitting there on draft day, listening to the chorus of “Who’s?” after making what I knew to be a tremendous and pretty sneaky pick in the later rounds and knowing that the player I just grabbed was going to impress all year and be a heavy trade target for my competition in no time. They used to be called sleepers. Now, thanks to all of you, they’re the trendiest picks in the draft and are losing their value year after year. Read the rest of this entry »