Archive for jarrod parker

Through the first half of last season, the A’s ranked 2nd in baseball in starting pitcher’s ERA. They were also tied for 1st in HR allowed per 9 and second in the AL in GB%. Offensively, the A’s were 5th in the AL in runs scored, entering the All-Star break with a +44 run differential. And a -9 win differential. So what happened?

Well, they were terrible defensively. They ranked 29th in Defensive Runs Above Average and UZR and led the AL in unearned runs. With catcher Stephen Vogt rating as 2015’s 8th worst pitch framer, it’s a wonder the rotation fared as well as it did. And the bullpen? Is a -0.1 WAR something you might be interested in? Me neither.  

Out of contention by the trade deadline, Billy Beane traded Scott Kazmir, Ryan Cook, Tyler Clippard, and Eric O’Flaherty. Then in the offseason, he exiled Jesse Chavez to Canada, Evan Scribner to the Mariners, Drew Pomeranz to the Padres, and lost Dan Otero on waivers and Edward Mujica to free agency. Caught all that? 9 pitchers, most of whom started 2015 in the East Bay, gone.

But you know the good news? The A’s never tear it down completely. In rebuilding his pitching staff, Beane assembled an intriguing posse of youngsters and Methuselastic veterans you might not recognize if you were sitting next to one on BART. Your league mates definitely won’t either.

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Martin Perez has only thrown 162.1 innings in the majors, but he’s well-known within most baseball communities. He’s been one of the most-hyped prospects in the Rangers’ farm system in recent years, being named the number-three prospect and top pitching prospect by Baseball America in 2013.

Thus, when the Rangers promoted him to the big-league rotation for good in late June, many fantasy owners quickly jumped on the bandwagon and plucked him off waivers (if he was even available). Perez didn’t set the league ablaze like Jose Fernandez or display the makings of a potential ace like Gerrit Cole. He instead provided solid-average production and was a top-100 starter despite spending almost half the season in Triple-A.

As such, the 3.62 ERA won’t give anyone whiplash, but he won ten games and was nearly a two-win player in the majors at age 22. That’s nothing at which to scoff. The question, however, is how that level of production may look over the course of an entire season.

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When tasked with choosing an MVP and an LVP, I decided to look at my own teams to see if there were any players in common on my good teams and any players in common on my bad teams. Of the six mixed leagues I played in, I had finishes of first, third, fourth, fourth, seventh and ninth. The only player that was on all four of my top four teams was Anibal Sanchez. While my two crappy teams had some similarities in terms of roster construction, one of the only players that was on both teams was Jarrod Parker. But it wouldn’t be fair if I failed to point out that my first round picks in those bad leagues were Matt Kemp and Albert Pujols. That definitely hurt me more than Parker did. Read the rest of this entry »

Right-hander Jarrod Parker was one of my biggest sleepers coming into the season. He quietly compiled a 3.47 ERA with a 3.43 FIP last year, and I predicted the strikeout rate would jump in 2013, resulting in even higher value for fantasy owners.

After a 7.36 ERA in the month of April, though, many owners quickly jumped off the bandwagon and dumped Parker on the waiver wire. His numbers were ugly across the board. The strikeouts were down, the walks were up and home runs were a legitimate problem. Opposing batters were hitting .350 off the 24-year-old starter, and he had allowed a staggering 43 hits in only 29.1 innings.

However, in recent starts, Parker has turned it around in a big way.

Since the calendar flipped to May, the right-hander has compiled a stellar 2.85 ERA in his last eight starts. His strikeout rate has enjoyed a modest bump, but the most significant improvement lies in his walk rate. He’s no longer doling out 4.91 walks per nine innings, as he did in April. Instead, his walk rate in May and June has dropped to 2.68 BB/9 — and his opponent batting average has plummeted to .199 over the same stretch.

It’s important to note Parker has greatly benefited from a .200 BABIP in his last eight starts, which is certainly a contributing factor to his turn-around. Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect a sub-3.00 ERA from him the remainder of the season. But if the walks stay down and the strikeout numbers (at least) hover around his career-average, he should continue to be very effective.

The real question remains, though. Will Jarrod Parker’s strikeout rate increase to match his swinging-strike rate?

His 9.9% swinging-strike rate currently ranks 25th in all of baseball, among qualified starters. That’s better than James Shields, Shelby Miller, Chris Sale and Clay Buchholz. Yet his strikeout rate continues to underperform. He compiled a 6.95 K/9 strikeout rate a year ago with a 9.9% swinging-strike rate, and with an identical swinging-strike rate this season, his K-rate is only 6.18 K/9.

It makes sense to think his strikeout rate would increase, based on those numbers. He gets guys to chase out of the strike zone and misses plenty of bats. He even had solid strikeout numbers in the minors. At this point, though, it’s becoming a trend for Parker. Perhaps he’s just going to be a guy whose strikeout rate never matches his peripheral numbers — much like right-hander Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda has a career 9.9% SwStr%, yet owns a career 6.71 K/9 strikeout rate.

I’m not sure what to make of the large differential, but it is clear that Parker can be effective without the gaudy strikeout numbers. He showed that last year and has shown it in his last eight starts. If his home-run rate comes back down to earth — and it should, pitching in Oakland — he should be a solid fantasy starter throughout the remainder of the season.

And Jarrod Parker remains criminally underowned, despite his recent string of success on the mound. He’s only owned in 65.7% of leagues, meaning he could be a lovely waiver-wire pickup for many owners looking to bolster their pitching staff.

Damn you, internet! Damn you, hordes of fantasy sports writers churning out an over-abundance of content! It used to be so easy; so much fun. I would dominate my fantasy baseball league year after year and there was no greater ego boost than sitting there on draft day, listening to the chorus of “Who’s?” after making what I knew to be a tremendous and pretty sneaky pick in the later rounds and knowing that the player I just grabbed was going to impress all year and be a heavy trade target for my competition in no time. They used to be called sleepers. Now, thanks to all of you, they’re the trendiest picks in the draft and are losing their value year after year. Read the rest of this entry »

The news was not overly great in prospect land this week, as three of the top hitters in the Arizona Fall League had to shut it down for the off-season, thanks to injuries. One of the top pitching prospects in the game had an even worse week, as he underwent Tommy John surgery.

Mike Stanton | OF | Florida Marlins
The injury to Stanton is unfortunate because he was really hitting well in the fall league after slumping for much of the second half of the year after being promoted from high-A to double-A. The good news, though, is that his back injury is not considered serious and that the club pulled him as a precaution, more than anything. However, back injuries do have a habit of lingering and/or reoccurring, especially in power hitters who take massive cuts. With any luck, though, the rest will alleviate the problem a lot quicker in the off-season than it would during the regular schedule.

After slamming 39 homers in low-A ball in 2008, Stanton hit another 28 in ’09 while splitting his time between high-A and double-A. Massive strikeout numbers – 33.1% – were at least partially to blame for his struggles in double-A. The outfield prospect will not turn 20 until November, so he has plenty of time to harness his swing. He’ll probably stick in double-A for a good portion of 2010 and likely won’t see significant playing time in the Majors until 2011. There are really no players on the Major League squad that could stand in his way, especially with Jeremy Hermida likely on his way out of town this winter (either by trade or non-tendering).

Jason Heyward | OF | Atlanta Braves
Like Stanton, Heyward suffered an injury (to his leg/hamstring) that is not considered serious. The left-handed hitter just turned 20 in August and he ended the year in triple-A. Heyward opened the season in high-A, where he played 49 games before moving up to double-A, where he played another 47 games. He did miss some time during the regular season with injuries, as well, although it was not related to his leg problem. A 2007 first-round draft pick out of a Georgia high school, Heyward has risen quickly through the Braves system. He’ll likely open 2010 in triple-A but could be playing regularly in Atlanta by mid-season.

With veteran outfielder Garret Anderson likely heading out of town via free agency (or retirement), the organization will field a very young outfield in ’10 with the anchor of the group being Nate McLouth, who is signed through 2011 (plus an option for 2012). Jordan Schafer, who had a disappointing rookie campaign in ’09, is another likely starter in ’10. The club also has Ryan Church, Matt Diaz, Brandon Jones, and Gregor Blanco on the depth chart.

Dayan Viciedo | 3B | Chicago White Sox
A bad throwing elbow has shut down Viciedo for the remainder of the winter. It’s unfortunate for the third baseman because he had an opportunity to really work on his game after a modest pro debut in ’09 after signing a big contract as an international free agent out of Cuba. Viciedo hit .280/.317/.391 in double-A but he showed very little patience at the plate and his rumored plus power never showed up (.111 ISO). The 20 year old (whose age is in question) was also criticized for his weight and overall drive.

Few scouts believe Viciedo will remain at third base for long, even though current MLB third baseman Gordon Beckham will likely move back to his original position at shortstop. The Cuba native probably needs one to two more seasons in the minors to smooth out his approach at the plate and hopefully discover his power stroke, which he’ll need to be an impact fantasy player.

Jarrod Parker | RHP | Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona’s No. 1 draft pick from 2007 was on the fast-track to the Majors before blowing out his elbow in mid-2009. Unfortunately, the club tried to take the rehab approach (which rarely works long-term) and Parker will now miss the entire 2011 season, rather than just half the year. Like the other players above, Parker is still quite young, as he will not turn 20 until November.

He made 16 starts at double-A in ’09 before getting hurt and he posted a 3.68 ERA (3.21 FIP) with a strikeout rate of 8.50 K/9. Parker has allowed just 10 home runs in 155 career innings. His ground-ball rate of 55% in ’09 makes his plus fastball all the more impressive. The track record with Tommy John surgery is good, so Parker should recover well, but it pushes back his MLB ETA, which now probably sits at late 2012. Be sure to keep that in mind, especially if you’re playing in a fantasy keeper league. The injury hurts Arizona, as well, since Parker was the organization’s only top-flight starting pitcher prospect.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Tyler Colvin: You have to give a break to this former (surprise) No. 1 draft pick by the Cubs. He had a pretty lousy approach at the plate, which resulted in walk rates of 6.0% and 3.0% early on in his career. After a lousy double-A season in 2008, the organization demoted him to high-A to begin the year. Still only 23, the outfielder changed his ways to a degree and increased his walk rate to 10.4%, although he hit just .250/.326/.357 with just one homer in 112 at-bats. Colvin was rewarded with a trip back to double-A, where he is hitting .319/.342/.652 with six homers in 69 at-bats. The bad news, though, is that he’s reverted to his old ways and has a walk rate of 4.2%. Toronto’s catching prospect J.P. Arencibia should be paying attention.

Kila Ka’aihue: Despite breaking out in a big way in 2008, Ka’aihue failed to impress the Royals’ management, which went out and acquired Mike Jacobs from the Marlins, who is now hitting .231/.314/.431 with 10 homers in 216 at-bats. And he’s doing it for $3.5 million. Ka’aihue, on the other hand, hit 38 homers last year in the minors and has a triple-A line of .273/.417/.498 with 10 homers in 227 at-bats and could be doing that in the Majors at the league minimum. The 25-year-old first baseman has also posted an ISO above .200 for the past three years. Right now, he’s a wasted resource. As of late, you don’t hear quite as much love expressed for Royals’ GM Dayton Moore as you did this past off-season.

Chris Carter (Oakland): Another powerful first baseman, Carter (not to be confused with the one in Boston) has made a lot of improvements to his game over last year – and that’s saying a lot considering he hit 39 homers with 104 walks. Although he’s not hitting for as much power, Carter has reduced his strikeout rate, while also increasing his batting average over last year when he hit .259 in high-A. This year in double-A, he has a line of .292/.396/.496 with 11 homers and 23 doubles in 284 at-bats. The 22-year-old prospect is probably less than a year away from helping out at the MLB level.

Michael Taylor: The Phillies organization has to be ecstatic with the development that Taylor has made over the past two seasons. A good, but not great, player at Stanford University, Taylor exploded in 2008 and hit .341/.408/.553 with 19 homers combined between two A-ball affiliates. In double-A in 2009, the 6’6” 250 lbs outfielder is hitting .340/.399/.579 with 13 homers in 247 at-bats, proving last year was no fluke. He’s even stolen 11 bases in 15 attempts. The 23 year old is a bit of an unusual prospect – not unlike San Diego’s Kyle Blanks.

Jarrod Parker: Another first-round prep pitching gem from the 2007 draft, had a nice debut season in 2008. His stuff has been even crisper in 2009 and he was promoted to double-A from high-A after just four starts (0.95 ERA, 12 hits in 19 IP). At double-A, the right-hander has been a little more hittable with 51 hits allowed in 47.1 innings of work. He also has a walk rate of 4.18 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.32 K/9. Only 20, Parker is holding his own at a level dominated by 23 year olds. With a fastball that can touch the upper 90s and improvements being made on the secondary pitches, Parker could develop into a No. 2 starter, if not a No. 1, which will be good news for the Arizona organization if ace Brandon Webb has to undergo shoulder surgery.

Marc Rzepczynski: A senior draft pick out of UC Riverside in 2007, this southpaw has improved with each minor league step he’s taken. Not only does Rzepczynski strike out his fair share of batters (almost 10.0 K/9 in his three-year career), the hurler also gets a mind-boggling number of groundball outs (career 64.6 GB%). His fastball is more like a bowling ball that can touch 92 mph and he also has a good slider and sinking (of course) changeup. With all the pitching injuries in Toronto, Rzepczynski could be up before the end of the season. His ultimate ceiling is probably that of a No. 3 starter.

Travis Wood: Wood is a perfect example of why you never give up on a good arm. The left-hander is a former second-round pick out of high school from 2005. He’s battled injuries and inconsistencies. Last year in 17 double-A starts, Wood posted a 7.09 ERA and allowed 91 hits and 48 walks in just 80 innings. This year, though, things have clicked again and he’s leading the minors in ERA with a 1.27 mark (2.82 FIP) in 15 starts. He’s allowed just 62 hits in 92 innings, along with a walk rate of 3.33 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.63 K/9. Only 22, Wood has allowed just one homer this year.

Kasey Kiker: The club’s first-round selection out of high school in the 2006 draft, Kiker sometimes gets lost in the shuffle with all the other great prospects in the Rangers’ system. The left-hander is having another solid year, this time in double-A, with a 3.25 ERA (4.21 FIP) and 64 hits allowed in 72 innings. He also has a walk rate of 4.63 BB/9 and 8.25 K/9. Only 5’11” 185 lbs, Kiker could eventually move to the bullpen, where his fastball has hit 95-97 mph in shorter stints.