Archive for Jarrod Dyson

For the final time this season, let’s see who’s movin’ and shakin’ in National League lineups.

Arizona

Wilmer Flores continues to hit and keep his bat in the lineup, starting four of the last six games. Conversely, Jarrod Dyson’s epic slump (3 for 41 prior to Wednesday’s game against the Marlins), has meant a reduction in playing time, as he has started two of the last five games against righties. The most recent of those starts was on Wednesday, when Ketel Marte was out of the lineup. With Marte’s back issues possibly keeping him out for the rest of the season, Dyson could get an opportunity to work his way out of his slump. He did go 2 for 4 on Wednesday, though he was dropped to the eighth spot in the batting order.
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Every year, it seems like there’s a handful of veteran players who go overlooked by fantasy owners. Part of it is likely that these 30-somethings do not excite you anymore. You’ve been scrolling past some of these names for a decade, if not longer. Your eyes simply skim through them on their quest to find that young sleeper who’s about to break out.

Another part of the the puzzle may be that no analysts write about these guys anymore. What would anyone possibly have to say at this point about a player we’ve all been watching since 2005? “He’s still here”? That’s no fun — at least, it’s far less fun than projecting the next breakout performer.

As someone who understands that life isn’t always fun, I hereby declare my intent to remind you that the following three players are worth owning, despite their relatively high ‘old and boring’ levels.

Shin-Soo Choo (17% Yahoo, 17.5% ESPN, 46% CBS, 92.1% Ottoneu)

I understand there might not be anything sexy about owning Choo these days. The guy does turn 35 next month, and spent most of last year struggling with injuries. However, the fact that he’s owned in about 17% of Yahoo/ESPN leagues is entirely unforgivable. Check out these numbers and tell me why he’s on your waiver wire.

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Playing time can make or break a baseball player’s fantasy value. An elite player may not finish above replacement level if he suffers an injury and plays only half the season, and a lackluster player could finish above replacement level simply by playing every single day. This is all intuitive, and the fantasy community generally approaches these kinds of things rationally. In other words, most players are appropriately valued, outside of the market inefficiencies that inevitably warp player values.

One-dimensional speedsters — dudes who steal a bunch of bases and do little else — are much harder to peg. Their value is tied up primarily in one category, as stolen bases (SBs) do not directly correlate with other categories the way home runs would with runs and RBI, for example. The issue becomes all the more confounding when one considers the contemporaneous scarcity of SBs relative to home runs. There’s more to value than just SBs and plate appearances (PAs), but the fact of the matter is the two statistics by themselves correlate very strongly with a player’s end-of-season (EOS) value (which, here, are informed by Razzball’s Player Rater).

In the last five years, baseball has seen 75 player-seasons of 30-plus SBs — 15 steals a year on average, a trend that didn’t fundamentally change in 2016 (although that doesn’t mean SBs aren’t scarce). A simple linear regression of SBs and PAs, the latter of which serves as a proxy for other counting stats such as runs and RBI, against EOS value produces a remarkable 0.71 adjusted R²:

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I covered matchups last week for some players who run often and aren’t full-timers but aren’t purely pinch runners. For fantasy baseball players who are lagging in the SB category but could gain substantial ground in it in the season’s final few weeks, such possibilities may be appealing. The return on this kind of investment is probably not great, as mentioned, but the forecasts can be pretty simple. Again, the greater challenge for a batter is to reach base, not to steal one.

First, there might be some players in your league’s free-agent pool who are more appealing than the streaming plays, however. (Ownership percentages are in parentheses.)

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If you’re going to stream at any position or for any category, a lot of preparation can go into the dissection of matchups. Fantasy baseball players, in general, may be putting too much stock in matchups for starting pitchers, as Brett Talley may have discovered. If such toil for what is surely the most commonly streamed position might be futile, then it seems rational to question whether it’s even worth the time to do so for something like steals.

But Brett admits that he intuitively questions his results, so we’re going to give it a shot. The return on investment for this kind of homework might be pretty low, regardless. Given the type of data I put together last week to serve as a potential resource for this sort of thing, what goes into a recommendation is pretty simple. As I basically wrote then, the greater challenge for the batter is to reach base, not to pilfer one should he have the opportunity.

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Earlier this week, Jeff Zimmerman presented Early 2015 Hitter Projections using Steamer and/or ZIPS averaged ROS projections. The main contingency at this time: all values are set to 600 plate appearances. If I had all the time in the world, I would go through the list and manually adjust the PA based on lineup position, career PA/G, etc, but I’m not that much of a Mensch.

The next day, Mike Podhorzer highlighted some of the surprises ranked in the top 30. Again the 600 PA contingency is clear as Rajai Davis, Jarrod Dyson and Corey Dickerson make the list although if Dickerson doesn’t get platooned, I (and Mike) think he’ll surpass expectations. His splits page tells us there is no good reason to platoon him.

In Mike’s intro, he also referenced that there is no adjustment for position in Jeff’s SGP rankings. That’s where this post comes in.

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You know a team failed to make a big offseason splash when their biggest highlight is when some Grammy-winning artist from New Zealand says her big hit was inspired by George Brett signing a bunch of baseballs. But so it goes for the Kansas City Royals as they made just a few minor tweaks to get themselves ready for a run at the playoffs in 2014. One of the tweaks, though, was the acquisition of a new right fielder, somewhat of a problem spot for them last season. So let’s take a look at that move and what fantasy owners can expect from the Kansas City outfield this season. Read the rest of this entry »

With the fantasy baseball season coming to an end, we can all now sit back, relax and enjoy the MLB playoffs. If you’ve got a dog in this hunt, I wish you nothing but the best. If not, then pick someone you’ll at least enjoy watching should they win the whole thing. This should be a fun October. But in the meantime, it’s my turn to step up and review the 10 Bold Predictions I made back in late March. I felt pretty good about them going in, and here’s how they ended up coming out… Read the rest of this entry »

As mentioned last week and around this time every year, with such little time left in the season, you’re simply looking for guys who are contributing now. Worrying about a guy’s ROS stats here on September 4 is a bit silly as few guys available are going to have numbers so enticing that they become a “must-have.” September call-ups are here and eating into a lot of veteran time, so the obvious trick is to find guys who will continue playing regardless of who the team brings up. Here are two guys you may want to consider… Read the rest of this entry »

When we, the writers of RotoGraphs, were presenting our 10 Bold Predictions, number six on my list was that Jarrod Dyson would lead the American League in stolen bases. I was basing it on his 30 steals in a part-time role last year, that he was opening this season in the bigs as the Royals’ fourth outfielder and that between Lorenzo Cain’s propensity for injury and Jeff Francoeur’s inability to hit, he would see plenty of time in a starting role. Well right now, he’s got six steals which is half of what the current AL leader has, and while Cain has remained surprisingly healthy so far, Francoeur is certainly doing his part to help my cause. If he’s sitting there on your waiver wire, it’s time to pick up Dyson. Read the rest of this entry »