Archive for James Loney

I’ve been writing about the Dodgers on a daily basis for nearly six full years now, and so you can probably imagine that one of the most exciting deals in that span was the massive trade with Boston last August. Oh sure, Los Angeles picked up Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, & Nick Punto, and that was nice enough — but nearly lost in that was the fact that after year upon frustrating year, James Loney was gone. Finally! My long personal nightmare would be over.

Here we are less than a year later, and now Loney’s hitting .375/.430/.528 for the Rays. It’s a line that demands examination. I’ll never escape him. Read the rest of this entry »

Ever since the Los Angeles Dodgers took him with the 19th overall pick in the 2002 draft, first baseman James Loney has been expected to develop power to complement a fluid, high-contact swing.

The 6-3, 220 pound lefty batter rarely hit with authority in the minor leagues, putting up a cumulative .296/.363/.430 triple-slash and a mild .134 Isolated Power. Loney reached L.A. in 2006, and he actually made those scouts look prescient by putting a charge into the ball in limited playing time in both ’06 and 2007. Since then, however, Loney’s power has been sorely lacking:

Here are Loney’s ISO and wRC+ figures during his big league career:

2006: 111 PA, .275 ISO, 132 wRC+
2007: 375 PA, .206 ISO, 140 wRC+
2008: 651 PA, .145 ISO, 106 wRC+
2009: 652 PA, .118 ISO, 104 wRC+

Over the past two seasons, the 25 year-old has the lowest ISO among first basemen (.132). It’s not particularly close, either: Todd Helton (.149 ISO) and Billy Butler (.163 ISO) are the next low men on the first base power totem pole.

As one might expect, Loney pulls the ball less than the average lefty batter, while hitting more to the opposite field (data courtesy of Baseball-Reference):

The pull field (right field for Loney) is where most batters put up their power numbers. Loney is no different. Actually, he has been outstanding when he laces the horsehide to right field. But, in addition to pulling the ball less often and hitting to the relatively punch less opposite field more than most, Loney has been well below-average on pitches hit up the middle:

As you can see, the pull field is where it’s at for batters (sorry, Mr. Bernazard). The average lefty hitter posts a .399 wOBA on pulled pitches, .360 to center and .316 to left field. Loney is a monster when he pulls (.430 wOBA), and he’s slightly above-average to left (.319 wOBA-but again, opposite field hitting is weaker overall, and Loney hits more pitches in that direction than the average lefty). But to center, his bat barely makes a peep (.325 wOBA).

Loney does make scads of contact. During his career, he has put the bat on the ball 93.5 percent of the time on pitches within the strike zone (87-88 percent MLB average), and 74.4 percent on offerings tossed out of the zone (60-61 percent MLB average). His contact rate is the 20th-highest in the majors over the past two seasons. However, that contact-oriented approach likely comes at the expense of extra-base clout.

He did do a better job of laying off junk pitches last year, which led to a career-high 10.7 percent walk rate. But even with an improved eye, he posted a .281/.357/.399 line at a position where the overall line was .277/.362/.483.

For 2010, CHONE projects Loney to hit .294/.355/.446 (116 wRC+). Those are essentially his career numbers to this point: .295/.354/.451, with a 114 wRC+. Loney’s RBI totals might lull fantasy players into thinking he’s a good option, but relative to the position that he plays, L.A.’s first baseman just hasn’t stacked up thus far. While he’s still young enough to show further improvement, Loney needs to lash the ball more frequently in order to truly be an asset.

Two outfielders with similar names put up eerily similar fantasy numbers last year. Here are the respective numbers for Jason Bay and Jayson Werth:

JB:.267-36-119-103-13
JW: .268-36-99-98-20

The largest difference in any category is the 20 RBIs that separate them. As you might imagine, the two winded up with very similar dollar values. The RotoTimes Player Rater gave Bay’s season a $24.40 total while Werth’s received a $24.12 value.

But while those were very close, there were many, many more players who winded up with closer gaps in their dollar value. Many of these players played different positions and posted very different stats, but came out with similar values. For instance, check out these two lines:

A: .281-13-90-73-7
B: .243-31-90-84-2

Which one would you rather have?

Player A is James Loney, with an $8.53 value, while Player B is Dan Uggla, who checked in with an $8.52 total. Obviously, you would rather have Player B, once you know it was Uggla, a second baseman. The Player Rater does not take into account position scarcity. So, when making comparisons you either need to build in your own adjustments or focus on players at similar positions.

Let’s look at two players who have been compared recently by agent Scott Boras, in Mark Teixeira and Matt Holliday. Boras, the agent for both, is trying to get a contract for Holliday similar to the one he arranged for Teixeira last year. The argument has been met with a lukewarm response from the baseball community, but is one that was fairly apt for fantasy purposes last year. Here are their fantasy numbers:

MT:.292-32-122-103-2
MH:.313-24-109-94-14

The Player Rater gave Teixeira a $25.70 value and Holliday a $25.52 one.

Another interesting comparison between two players with very different skills but similar overall values last season is Ian Kinsler and Michael Bourn. Kinsler’s power and Bourn’s speed produced virtually identical fantasy seasons.

IK:.253-31-86-101-31
MB: .285-3-35-97-61

The Player Rater had the two separated by just one penny, with Kinsler posting the higher value at $22.81 last season.

Dollar values are not a precise measurement and different sites will have different values for players. These are best used as a rough estimate of value and as a reminder that owners (and players) can acquire value in a multitude of ways.

Once again it’s time for the companion piece to the rankings post from Thursdays. We broke down the first basemen this week, and it seemed that the position was deep, with players like Billy Butler, ranked fourteenth on our list, still capable of putting up .280/30/100 years. There’s a lot of value to be found after the top first basemen are off the board.

But are there great options once the first 15 first basemen are gone? There’s definitely a steep increase in risk. Zach Sanders did a good job breaking down the risk versus reward for Chris Davis this week, and Davis’ power potential is definitely worth the lower draft cost in 2010. Russell Branyan offers a similar power upside, but with his career strikeout rate at almost 40% (38.9% career) he’s actually even riskier in the batting average department. It is worth noting that he’s significantly improved his strikeout rate in the past two years (31.8% and 34.6% in 2008 and 2009 respectively), and if he holds on to that improvement, he could repeat his numbers from 2009.

Once you pass the whiff-or-bomb section of the rankings, it starts to look meager. People will be tempted to take James Loney earlier than they should, but he is a player that embodies the fallacy that all young players get better. Almost 1800 plate appearances into his career, though, we know what Loney is. He’s a line-drive-hitting (21.4% career) worm-burner (43.4% ground ball, 35.3% fly ball career) with below-average power (9% HR/FB career). Unless he gets lucky and has his career year, there’s no reason to think that Loney will do any better than hit .280+ with 15 or so home runs, and there are plenty of players that can do that and cost less in the draft.

Consider that you can probably get Lyle Overbay many rounds later, and Overbay is just as likely to hit .270 with 16 or so home runs. Don’t overpay for the ten points of batting average in this case, especially since Overbay’s declining batting average is actually easily managed – it is the result of declining splits. While Overbay used to be okay against lefties (.711 OPS career) he’s been terrible the last couple of years (.534 and .540 OPS versus southpaws the last two years). If you can manage Overbay daily, you can take advantage of his good split against right-handers (.847 OPS career) which was still strong the last two years (.905 in 2009, .865 in 2008). Provided that he ends up in a good position in real-life baseball, and that his fantasy owner finds a caddy for those days against lefties, Overbay makes a great late value pick.

Jorge Cantu is also an intriguing later-round value. Cantu proved that he is consistently inconsistent from year to year by following up a strong 2008 (.277, 29 home runs) with a year that looked completely different (.289, 16 home runs) in 2009. One thing that pops out in the numbers is that when his strikeout rate is high, his power his greater and his batting average is weaker. So, while it is great that he is walking more and striking out less as he ages, it makes predicting his power and batting average in 2010 difficult. Complicating the prediction process further is the fact that his team is unsettled and he is a candidate for a trade as he becomes more expensive. Bill James likes Cantu for .277 and 18 home runs next year (but with a few more strikeouts than in 2009), and, though seemingly rare with James’ projections, there is a chance for the player to outproduce those power numbers.

The deadline to make fantasy trades either has already happened or is just around the corner, depending upon your league rules. If your league still permits trading, start working the phones and see what you can do. In that regard, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Obtain

Alex Rodriguez – A lot of owners are worried about Rodriguez’ relative lack of power this season, especially given the way new Yankee Stadium has played. Rodriguez has not hit a HR since July 19th and 13 of his 19 HR this year have come at home. But his HR/FB rate is better than it was last season and Rodriguez is unlikely to maintain a .263 BABIP going forward.

Clayton Richard – In his second season with the White Sox, Richard held his own. He posted an ERA just slightly above league average and his K/9 of 6.67 was good. Now he finds himself pitching in the NL without a designated hitter and he goes from pitching in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field to Petco Park, one of the best pitching parks in baseball. It should add up to make him a valuable fantasy pitcher for the rest of 2009.

Alex Rios – The expectations for Rios always seem to exceed the actual production. Some hoped he would threaten 30-30 while batting close to .300 and it just has not worked out that way. But Rios is on target to exceed last year’s HR and RBI totals while coming close to his career-best steal output. His BABIP is 30 points below his career mark and RoS ZiPS forecasts him to hit .282 for the remainder of the season.

Jeff Niemann – There is nothing in Niemann’s overall profile to recommend acquiring him, while his FIP and HR/FB ratio might even suggest him as a sell candidate. But since the middle of May, Niemann has been a steady and consistent fantasy hurler. In his last 14 games, Niemann is 8-2 with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.197 WHIP. Niemann has started throwing more curveballs, giving batters another pitch to consider.

Lastings Milledge – Many fantasy owners expected Milledge to have a breakout season in 2009 and that just has not happened. But the trade to Pittsburgh offers him a new start and he has two things in his favor now that he did not have earlier in Washington. First, Milledge is not a leadoff hitter and with Andrew McCutchen around to fill that bill for the Pirates, it frees Milledge to bat lower in the order. And while it does not appear on the surface to matter in fantasy, McCutchen also allows Milledge to play an outfield corner in Pittsburgh, where he is much more suited defensively. Milledge is only owned in 23 percent of CBS Sports leagues and is worth a flier if he is available on your waiver wire.

Exchange

Aramis Ramirez – Fantasy owners have been without Ramirez for most of the year, so it seems an odd time to be shopping him now. Since returning from the DL, Ramirez has posted a .321-5-17-15-0 fantasy line in 21 games. But Ramirez also has a .353 BA BIP, 58 points above his career average. And his HR/FB rate of 16.4 percent is his highest since 2005.

Joba Chamberlain – He has been lights out in his last three starts, offering fantasy owners the production they dreamed about when they selected him in the top half of their draft. But while he is doing his best pitching of the season, word is that the Yankees are going to cap his innings somewhere around 160 innings this season. Now, when push comes to shove, New York may not go through with that plan but Chamberlain owners owe it to themselves to see if they can trade him for equivalent value and minimize their risk going forward.

Alex Gordon – After spending most of the season on the DL with a hip injury, Gordon is back for the Royals. His first two weeks back have been nothing special. Like Rios, expectations for Gordon always seem to outstrip his production but Gordon is unlikely to offer the upside of Rios in any single fantasy category for the rest of the season.

Jarrod Washburn – He was exceeding all expectations this season in Seattle and now he has to keep that performance up in the heat of a pennant race in Detroit. Washburn has been through the playoff chase numerous times before while with the Angels but owners should be wary of how he will do moving away from Safeco Park and the vaunted Mariners defense. And for what it is worth, Washburn has a lifetime 5.33 ERA in eight starts in Comerica Park.

James Loney – In his last 14 games, Loney is batting .397 with 14 RBIs. But even in this hot streak, Loney has zero HR. Loney’s HR/FB rate checks in at a dismal 5.4 percent and in order to be a valuable corner infielder in fantasy, Loney will need a much higher AVG than his .293 mark this season with such puny HR production.

From the moment the Los Angeles Dodgers plucked James Loney out of prep powerhouse Elkins High (Texas) back in 2002, scouts lauded his silky-smooth left-handed swing. A two-way phenom who could dial it up into the low-90’s on the mound, Loney was nonetheless preferred by the Dodgers for his feats in the batter’s box. While few doubted that Loney would spray line drives all over the field, his power ceiling was subject to considerably more debate.

It’s been seven years since Los Angeles made Loney the 19th overall pick, and guess what? We still don’t know how much thump the 25 year-old will show in the long term. His minor league career was often schizophrenic, as he posted a combined .296/.362/.430 line. That’s garden-variety production from a fellow playing the pre-eminent power position on the diamond, but Loney continued to rank prominently on most prospect lists on the faith that his doubles power would eventually lead to more frequent round-trippers…

2003, High-A Vero Beach (Age 19)
.276/.337/.400, .124 ISO, 9.2 BB%, 17 K%
Baseball America Prospect Ranking: #42 overall (4th in LA system)
Prospect Handbook comment: “A disciplined hitter with good pitch recognition and a classic lefthanded stroke that recalls Mark Grace, Loney sprays line drives to all fields and has power to the alleys. He’s still growing and projects to hit 30 homers annually.”

(note: Loney did break his wrist late in 2002; wrist injuries tend to sap a player’s bat control and power)

2004, AA Jacksonville (Age 20)
.238/.311/.327, .099 ISO, 10.6 BB%, 19 K%
BA Prospect Ranking: #62 overall (4th in LA system)
Prospect Handbook comment: “Loney did bat .314 in the Arizona Fall League and remains one of the game’s most promising first-base prospects…scouts have wondered when Loney’s power is going to come.”

(note: Loney fractured the tip of his middle finger during the season and later developed an infection)

2005, AA Jacksonville (Age 21)
.284/.357/.419, .135 ISO, 11.7 BB%, 17.3 K%
BA Prospect ranking: 11th in LA system
Prospect Handbook comment: “Following three seasons marred by wrist and finger injuries, Loney finally stayed healthy in 2005…but he hit just 11 homers, and scouts continue to wonder if he’ll have enough power to be a regular first baseman in the big leagues.”

You get the picture. Most everyone loved the swing and kept the faith that Loney would eventually hit the ball with force. But, as the prospect rankings slipped and the slugging exploits remained mild, some were beginning to fall off the band wagon.

Just when it looked like Loney’s prospect status might be headed down the drain, the lefty hit the jackpot with AAA Las Vegas in 2006. The Pacific Coast League (and Vegas in particular) is a great place to hit, and Loney’s line was fueled by a lofty batting average, but he turned in a .380/.426/.546 showing that evidently re-started the love affair with scouts. Loney also helped himself with a searing cup of coffee with the Dodgers, batting .284/.342/.559 in 111 PA. He jumped back up the charts, ranking as BA’s 44th best prospect. By this point, Loney was yet again compared to Mark Grace, another southpaw-swinging first-baseman with modest pop but good strike-zone control and contact ability.

Loney regressed back at Sin City in 2007, however, posting a very mild .279/.345/.382 line at Vegas. The youngster still received another opportunity to break into the big league lineup in June, as Nomar Garciaparra’s bat was no-mas (.307 wOBA in ’07). Loney seemingly made good on those power prognostications, posting a tantalizing .389 wOBA (.331/.381/.538), a .200-plus ISO (.206) and 15 bombs in 375 PA.

So that’s it, right? Loney was the greatest thing since Vin Scully and bopped happily ever after?

Not quite. Rather than maintaining that boost in the extra-base hit department, Loney turned in a rather Graceian .289/.338/.434 line in 2008, with 13 taters in 651 PA. His ISO (.145) was the fourth-lowest among first baseman qualifying for the batting title, ranking ahead of only underpowered peers such as Casey Kotchman, Ryan Garko and Daric Barton. While it’s probably best not to get worked up over a one-year platoon split, southpaws did silence Loney to the tune of .249/.303/.361.

Loney is a mystery wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a Dodger Dog. Any time one feels confident in mapping out his future, he unexpectedly takes a 180 degree turn. There’s a fine line between asset and liability at a spot like first base. With the positional standard being so high (the average MLB first baseman hit .271/.352/.463 in 2008), singles-and-doubles-hitting batsmen aren’t all that valuable; they’re just sort of there.

Loney is still just going to be 25 this year and holds a career .303/.353/.480 line in the majors, so he’s certainly not without talent. But it seems most will end up disappointed if he turns out to be the next Sean Casey. Holding the title of “Mayor” could be sort of a letdown if you were expected to become president of a young and immensely talented ballclub.