With Jake McGee currently on a rehab assignment and Sean Doolittle reportedly set to begin one soon, Brad Boxberger and Tyler Clippard may not be seeing much of the ninth inning soon. Ignoring the whims of managers and whether McGee and Doolittle will resume their role as closer, should they? Read the rest of this entry »
The closer grid is updated below, but first up is your current rankings for 5×5 (W,SO,ERA,WHIP,SV), 6×6 (+HLD) and rate-stat (K/9, BB/9, HR/9, H/9, ERA) leagues using z-scores (rate stats adjusted by IP) for each category. It’s currently sorted by the standard 5×5 format. Scroll to the right for all of the individual z-scores in gray. I highlighted the relievers in green:
Here is yesterday morning’s review of Friday’s games including a grundle-grab reference, Edward Mujica probably sticking at closer, Drew Storen definitely sticking at closer, a White Sox closer swap rewarded with shakiness, and an update on Glen Glen Glen!
A’s at M’s: Sean Doolittle is back, looked sharp and earned his 21st save the season. Since his last save on August 23rd, there was one lonely save by Eric O’Flaherty. The A’s went 6 and 14 over that timeframe. It was a big win for the A’s who kept the Mariners one game back from their Wildcard lead thanks in part to Doolittle’s clean return (1 IP, 1K), but thanks more in part to a Fernando Rodney implosion (1 IP, 4 straight walks in the top of the 10th). To date, using 50 IP as the qualifier, Sean Doolittle owns the 3rd best K%-BB% rate in the history of baseball, 36.2%, thanks in part to the 20th best K% ever (38.6%) and the 26th best BB% ever (2.4%). Incredible. Enjoy his high fastball in a time where not many others have this lethal high fastball and hitters focus with their chins down.
Astros at Angels: Angels keep winning: their 10th straight behind two Trout homers. Lefty specialist and deep bullpen option Joe Thatcher was activated from the DL. Austin Powers has forever ruined his last name for me: Margaret Thatcher naked on a cold day….Margaret Thatcher naked on a cold day! Huston Street earned save 14 for the Angels (38 in total). He gave up 1 hit, struck out 1 and looks as though he’s fine after being sidelined with a hamstring injury. Noncloser note: Jered Weaver continues to deceive. I strolled across this while preparing a 2015 Mets Rotation post…Jered Weaver owns the 9th best zone-contact rate for starters this year, and despite diminishing velocity, hitters are relatively swinging at much less stuff in the zone against him (14th best SP rate) confirming his continued deception.
Rays at Blue Jays: Usually I’m pointing to just how dominating Brad Boxberger has been, but perhaps he needs a little break despite only pitching in 4 of the last 8 days. It’s 2 appearances in a row now he’s given up a homer. He earned his 2nd loss of the season yesterday. With less than a month left of the season, if you’re in a saves-only league mayyybe it’s worth dropping Boxberger since Jake McGee is still the (very effective) closer. Casey Janssen confirmed that he’s still the Blue Jays’ closer earning himself save #23.
I wanted to highlight Pitcher over and under performers. Naturally, Mike Podhorzer has already done that and more concisely and eloquently than I ever could. In conjunction to what he did (ERA vs. SIERA within this year), I wanted to look at pitchers’ skills and luck relative to last year.
By “skills” I mean K%-BB%, combined Contact% and SwStr%, GB/FB and IFFB%. These columns are in green.
By “luck” I mean BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB. These are in some emotional shade of red.
I took all the 2014 vs. 2013 differentials and z-scored them. I summed them up and presented them under column 3 (“SKILL”) and column 4 (“LUCK”). In short, these are not their skill and luck scores for 2014, but their change relative to 2013…in relation to how much everyone else from this list changed (50 IP qualifier).
For my first Bullpen Report, I wanted to provide additional value so I blasted “Enter Sandman” and sprinted toward my office to write this.
Below the report of yesterday’s games, you will find rankings for 5×5 (W,ERA,WHIP,K,SV) and 6×6 (+Holds) leagues based on Zach Sander’s FVARz approach. For reference, I used 108 active Pitchers = 9 P x 12 teams and 25 IP as a qualifier. Why 25? I didn’t want to leave Ken Giles off the list.
But there’s more. In addition to their fantasy value, I’ve z-scored outcomes on the plate appearance level to depict pitcher skill (K%-BB%, Ct%, GB/FB, F-Str%, and IFFB% weighed by their correlations to ERA) and luck (BABIP, HR/FB and LOB% weighed by their correlations to ERA) thus far this season. To back up the top 20 relievers ranked by my “Skill” Score, I also furnished grids on their pitch outcomes, which depicts how well their individual pitches induce whiffs and grounders vs. flies.
Saves are king when it comes to the value of relievers in fantasy baseball, but in the right type of league, top middle relievers can be very useful. In leagues with start limits, top middle relievers can help with ratios and, maybe more importantly, they can help you rack up strikeouts, which is a category than can be a tight race in start limit leagues.
To determine who the most valuable relievers have been so far, I took the top 100 relievers from ESPN’s player rater and stripped out the categorical contributions from wins and saves. I took out saves because most closers are owned, and you probably don’t need help chasing saves. I took out wins because they’re even harder to predict for relievers than they are for starters. Below is a list of the relievers with the greatest combined contributions in ERA, WHIP and Ks on the player rater so far this year along with their ESPN ownership percentage. Read the rest of this entry »
When was the last time you saw a single position in fantasy take such a beating before the season even gets underway? First there was the sudden change to Brett Myers in Houston. Then Joakim Soria and Ryan Madson headed for the DL, each in need of Tommy John surgery. Then Drew Storen had elbow issues and Frank Francisco needed his knee drained. It’s been a disaster, right?
Well, now it gets worse as Andrew Bailey heads to the shelf for three to four months with thumb surgery and Kyle Farnsworth lands on the DL with elbow soreness. The waiver wire has been a hotbed of action for the last few weeks and it’s getting even hotter with these next two guys…
As much joy as the game of fantasy baseball brings to most of us, it can also bring an enormous amount of frustration and anxiety. They say you shouldn’t keep that sort of stuff bottled up inside you, unless, of course, you enjoy the taste of bile and all the other stomach acids that a bleeding ulcer provides. You need to get it out. But what are you going to do, bitch to your girlfriend? Try to gain sympathy from your fellow owners? Doubtful. Her level of care is reciprocal to your level of interest in her best friend’s latest relationship disaster and deep down, your fellow owners are wishing this kind of stuff on you. Read the rest of this entry »
While the season hasn’t started yet, it’s never too early to get familiar with your league’s waiver wire. Situations are still changing on some teams and by keeping up with the news, you’ll be better prepared to pounce on a potential quality pick-up before your competition. The waiver wire articles you’ll find here focus on players owned in less than 50% of Yahoo! and ESPN leagues. Read the rest of this entry »
With the Red Sox and Yankees recently adding big names to their respective rotations other guys like Wade Davis tend to slip under the radar. Davis doesn’t have the name recognition of a John Lackey, Javy Vazquez, or even David Price but he’s pretty darn good. The Rays were confident enough in his abilities to have him take over for Scott Kazmir in the rotation after they traded Kazmir to the Angels.
Davis shined during his first six starts at the big league level. He had strong peripherals (8.92 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9) which led to a 2.90 FIP. This suggests that his 3.72 ERA should have been better though his September 12 performance against the Red Sox (2.2 IP 8 ER) helps explain the bloated ERA. More good news from his big league line: His 62.5% strand rate looks a bit light and his .318 BABIP should be expected to regress.
I was fortunate enough to take in a few of Davis’ starts this past summer and came away impressed each time. During my Baseball America days one of my former colleagues and I closely charted Davis and the opposing pitcher. His broad shouldered build is impressive and he knows how to dial it up with his fastball. Davis’ curveball is a true plus pitch and has filthy break.
The Rays have a lot of rotation depth like the Yankees and Red Sox. But the Rays have younger depth that is spilling into the minor leagues and sparkling on the top prospect lists. As of today the Rays figure to open the season with a tentative rotation of James Shields, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, David Price, and Wade Davis. Davis’ sparkling 2009 MLB debut should give the 24 year-old the upper hand for the last rotation spot. He’s slowly but steadily progressed through the Rays system and has no significant injury history. He’s also proven to be a workhorse during his minor league tenure. Here are his combined inning totals the past few seasons:
2009: 195
2008: 161
2007: 158
2006: 146
Davis has seen his inning totals increase every season and he’s had success at every level. He’s ready to be cut loose at the big league level and the Rays should be confident in his ability to provide 180+ innings at the big league level. While there may not be immediate pressure on Davis if he’s the teams fifth starter he better try avoiding any early big season slumps.
Andrew Friedman knows each win really counts in the American League East and if Davis struggles (his weaker points can be his command and consistency of his slider and change up) they have a few appetizing options that could slot in easily for him. Jeremy Hellickson (known for his lethal change up) is going to be pounding on the door at Triple-A Durham where he tore through hitters to wrap up his 2009 season with a 2.66 FIP in nine starts. And Andy Sonnastine is going to be hungry for another opportunity after an embarrassing 2009 showing (5.45 FIP in 100 IP) at the big league level although he showed signs of life (3.37 FIP in nine starts) after a demotion to Durham. Jake McGee cannot be forgotten as he’ll begin his first full season back from Tommy John surgery after tossing 30 innings (mostly in Double-A) during his recovery year. McGee could rocket through the system if he finds his pre-injury stuff.
I like Davis’ chances of nabbing 10-15 wins with an ERA south of 4.00 next season with the Rays. His home run per nine rate will rise from his 0.50 big league marker but Davis’ plus fastball and curve will allow his to earn plenty of strikeouts. A big key to Davis’ game will be his ability to harness his command and if he has it big league hitters better watch out because this guys going to be here to stay.
Davis has flown under the radar and closely monitor him when pitchers and catchers report in February. He has big upside and can be had later during your drafts especially with all the attention New York and Boston’s rotations are receiving.