Archive for jake arrieta

To begin the 2009 season, Baltimore Orioles fans were treated to a starting rotation that included the likes of Koji Uehara, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Hendrickson, Adam Eaton, Rich Hill, and Alfredo Simon. There is no reason to ask why the club is in last place, 23 games out of first in the American League East.

Guthrie and Uehara have not been terrible. At the age of 30, Guthrie doesn’t really have any upside left but he’s developed into a fairly dependable No. 3 starter. He is exposed, though, if a club relies on him to be a No. 1 or 2 starter, which he’s been in Baltimore. Uehara, who came over from Japan prior to the 2009 season, has a torn flexor tendon in his elbow and hasn’t pitched since June. His numbers weren’t bad prior to the injury but the 34-year-old right-hander was pitching like a No. 4 starter.

As grim as the above information is, the future is extremely bright for the Orioles’ starting pitching staff. Fans in Baltimore have already been treated to the MLB debuts for the club’s top two pitching prospects: Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz. Both players have been roughed up a bit at times – mainly due to a lack of command – but their potential is evident. They project to fill in the top of the Orioles’ starting rotation for years to come.

Brad Bergesen has been a surprise contributor to the rotation this season as a rookie. The right-hander was flying under the radar of prospect watchers but he’s made 19 starts for the club and has allowed 126 hits in 123 innings of work. He has a solid ERA at 3.43, as well as a respectable FIP at 4.08. His walk rate is marvelous at 2.34 BB/9 but his strikeout rate is alarmingly low at 4.74 K/9. Bergesen, though, lives and dies by the ground ball and currently has a ground-ball rate of 50.1%. With a fastball that sits right around 89-90 mph, and a good slider, Bergesen, 23, could fill the No. 4 or 5 starter’s role for the Orioles for quite some time.

Like Bergesen, David Hernandez has also provided more innings for the club than expected in ’09. The right-hander has pitched reasonable well, although he’s been a little too hittable with 60 hits allowed in 52.1 innings of work. His walk rate is OK at 3.61 BB/9 but his strikeout rate is quite low at 4.82 K/9, especially considering that he was averaging K/9 rates of 9.50 to 11.00 in the minors. Hernandez is also an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a ground-ball rate of just 29.3%. His stuff is good, though, as he’s been average around 93 mph on the fastball and he also has a solid slider, and an OK changeup. He could battle Bergesen in the future for a back-of-the-rotation spot with the loser moving to the bullpen.

Rookie Jason Berken has made 14 starts with the Orioles but has an ERA of 6.72 (FIP of 5.01). He’s allowed 89 hits in 69.2 innings of work, while also posting rates of 3.49 BB/9 and 5.04 K/9. His ground-ball rate is just 38.1% and his line-drive rate is 24.2%. Berken is getting hit hard despite a four-pitch mix that includes a fastball that averages 92 mph. The 25-year-old pitcher is probably best suited to bullpen work, but he could become a valuable swing pitcher.

The Orioles club still has two pitchers remaining in triple-A and double-A who should both settle into the MLB rotation within the next year: Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe. Matusz jumped over Arrieta after the latter pitcher hit a three-start rough patch in triple-A from July 24-Aug. 3. The right-hander dominated high-A and double-A, but he’s struggled a bit with consistency in triple-A. Regardless, the 23-year-old pitcher has all the potential necessary to be a very good No. 3 starter in the Majors, including low-to-mid-90s fastball, slider, curve and changeup.

Erbe has gotten lost in the shuffle a bit because of a rough 2007 at high-A ball (although he was just 19 years of age at the time). Now 21, the right-hander has been slowed by some injuries this season but he’s been dominant as of late. In his last start against the Jays’ double-A affiliate, he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning. On the season, he has allowed 29 hits in 47.2 innings of work. He also has a walk rate of 3.97 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.55 K/9. Both those rates will surely improve once he gains better command of his pitches, which include a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a plus slider and an OK changeup. Right-handed batters are hitting just .138 against him.

If all goes well, the Orioles rotation could eventually stack up like this:
1. Chris Tillman, RHP, age 21
2. Brian Matusz, LHP, 22
3. Brandon Erbe, RHP, 21
4. Jake Arrieta, RHP, 23
5. Brad Bergesen, RHP, 23

6. David Hernandez, RHP, 24
7. Jason Berken, RHP, 25

For fantasy baseball managers, the Baltimore Orioles’ pitching depth offers some very intriguing options in keeper leagues. For Orioles fans, the above depth chart is exciting news after enduring a very ugly April.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Desmond Jennings: When a left shoulder injury wiped out most of Jennings’ 2007 season, it stood to reason that the talented outfielder’s timetable would get pushed back. However, no one told Jennings. The 22-year-old picked up right where he left off in 2007. In fact, his two triple-slash lines are almost eerily similar to this point:

.315/.401/.465 (in 387 at-bats at high-A in 2007)
.316/.395/.486 (in 383 at-bats at double-A in 2009)

Even Jennings’ walk rates and strikeout rates are similar. His wOBA, though, has improved from .399 to .415. With 100 games under his belt in double-A, Rays management recently promoted Jennings to triple-A. In four games, he’s hitting .250 with a double, four Ks and a couple of stolen bases. Defensively, the center fielder has good range and an average arm. He may get a taste of the Majors this September and Jennings should be ready to contribute on a regular basis by mid-2010. That would give the Rays an incredibly athletic outfield with Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton already on hand.

Jose Tabata: Like Jennings, this former Yankees’ prospect has also benefited from a recent promotion to triple-A. Tabata battled injuries (and the tabloids, thanks to his wife) early on in the season before establishing himself at double-A with a line of .303/.370/.404 with two homers and seven steals (in 13 attempts) in 228 at-bats. The right-handed hitter has yet to show the power expected of him but he’s hitting for average and controlling the strike zone well (11 K%). At only 20 years of age, Tabata has time to learn to drive the ball over the fences with more regularity. Defensively, he is a good center fielder, but he won’t move Andrew McCutchen out of position in Pittsburgh. As a result, Tabata will probably end up in right field, thanks to his strong arm. When that happens, though, his lack of power will become even more evident.

Ian Desmond: We’ve been hearing hype on Desmond for a while now but the slick fielder is just beginning to justify that talk with his performance at the plate. After struggling to hit for average early in his career, the 23-year-old prospect his .306/.372/.494 with six homers and 13 steals in 170 at-bats in double-A. Desmond still needs to show a little more patience at the plate with a walk rate of just 8.6 BB%. Another word of warning: Desmond’s BABIP is much higher this season over his career norm. In two previous stints in double-A, his BABIPs were .256 and .296. This year it was .371. His offensive showing in double-A was good enough to get him promoted to triple-A where he is currently hitting .298/.420/.351 through 18 games. With the club having given a two-year extension through 2010 to incumbent shortstop Cristian Guzman, it buys Desmond a little more time to hone his batting skills in triple-A next year. However, an injury to Guzman (or perhaps a trade to free up his $8 million salary) could get Desmond to Washington by the end of July next year.

Jason Castro: The Astros organization has slowly been benefiting from its minor league system over the past few seasons and it has enjoyed contributions from players such as Hunter Pence and Bud Norris. Catcher Jason Castro – the club’s 2008 first-round pick – should be the next significant contributor after surpassing J.R. Towles as the club’s backstop of the future. Castro, 22, began the 2009 season in high-A and hit .309/.399/.517 with seven homers in 207 at-bats. The left-handed hitter was then moved up to double-A where he is currently hitting .304/.358/.405 with two homers in 148 at-bats. His power numbers were probably exaggerated a bit in high-A ball due to the fact he was playing in Lancaster (one of the best offensive parks in minor league ball) and his ISO has dropped from .208 in high-A to .101 in double-A. Regardless, he’s still an above-average offensive catcher who has really improved defensively behind the dish.

Jake Arrieta: With fellow pitching prospects Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman having recently arrived in the Majors, Arrieta is now waiting for his shot in Baltimore. The right-hander’s ceiling is not quite as high as the other two pitchers but he should slide into the No. 3 spot in the rotation very nicely. Arrieta, 23, began the year in double-A where he allowed 45 hits in 59 innings of work. He also posted rates of 3.51 BB/9 and 10.68 K/9. Promoted to triple-A, Arrieta has struggled a bit with 56 hits allowed in 51.2 innings. He’s posted a walk rate of 3.14 and a strikeout rate of 8.54 K/9. The right-hander has also allowed almost twice as many home runs but in eight fewer innings. His repertoire includes a fastball that can touch the mid-90s, a slider and a changeup.

Andrew Cashner: After having success in the bullpen in college, Cashner rose into the first round of the draft in 2008, which is where the Cubs organization nabbed him. He was moved into the starting rotation in pro ball to get more innings under his belt and he may end up sticking as a starter. Cashner began the year in high-A where he allowed 31 hits in 42 innings of work, while also posting a walk rate of 3.21 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.29 K/9. With a promotion to double-A, the right-hander has allowed just 14 hits in 24.2 innings. His rates have remained almost exactly the same. He’s also done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park with just one homer allowed on the year. The Cubs rotation does not look as formidable as it once did so Cashner could help out sooner rather than later. With any luck, though, the organization will avoid bouncing him back and forth between the rotation and the ‘pen, which it did with Jeff Samardzija (with limited success). Cashner’s repertoire includes a fastball that can touch 97 mph (more often out of the ‘pen), a plus slider, and a changeup.