Early season roster moves aren’t something I’m a fan of, but bottom-of-the-roster turnover is a constant reality for fantasy owners. Let’s take a look at the shortstops who have seen their ownership percentages rise and fall the most after one week (according to ESPN) in the constant waiver wire shuffle. Read the rest of this entry »
The Baltimore infield gave us quite a few fantasy relevant options last year. They had a player finish inside the top 12 at every position other than second base, and Chris Davis emerged as a complete stud. Their four fantasy relevant guys will return to their positions, but there are some questions about whether they’ll be able to repeat their value from last year.
By the time you reach the last few rounds of your draft, your remaining options can look pretty scary. Some people are grabbing middle relievers and potential save vultures, some people are picking up middle infield depth, and some are just stockpiling minor league players hoping that if you throw enough against the wall, something’s bound to stick. For you, there can be another option and given the fact that we’re so far into the draft, the risk is minimal with a potentially enormous upside. Laugh if you will, but Baltimore’s Chris Davis can make for an outstanding late round sleeper pick this year.
Francisco Liriano, Twins
Liriano, 26, has reclaimed his place as one of the game’s elite starters. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2006, the lefty posted back-to-back ordinary seasons in 2008 (4.31 xFIP) and 2009 (4.55 xFIP), lacking the power, control and strong ground ball tendencies which allowed him to wreak havoc in ’06. He also missed time last season with elbow and forearm injuries, again calling into question his durability.
In 2010, however, Liriano has 9.41 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, a 49.5% rate of grounders and a 3.12 xFIP that ranks second to Cliff Lee among qualified AL starters. His mid-80’s slider has always been wicked — it has a +2.49 runs/100 value during his career, and is at +2.71 this season. He’s going to that breaking pitch about 36 percent of the time. But it’s Liriano’s two-seam fastball that’s making a big difference.
Liriano’s heat has been hammered for a -0.8 runs/100 mark during his career, but the pitch (up to 93.5 MPH, from 91 MPH in ’08 and ’09) has a +0.5 runs/100 value this year. He’s throwing the pitch for strikes (64.6%, 61.9% MLB average). Couple the souped-up, well-located fastball with Liriano’s untouchable slider — he’s throwing the pitch for strikes 74.7% (62.7% MLB average) and getting whiffs 24% (13% MLB average) — and you have the recipe for pitcher’s counts and little contact. Liriano’s first pitch strike percentage is 61.6% (58% MLB average) and his contact rate is 75% (80-81% MLB average).
Mike Pelfrey, Mets
Speaking of improved pitches, Pelfrey’s splitter has helped him take a step forward this season. The 6-7 sinkerballer threw his tailing low-90’s fastball nearly 80% of the time in years past, getting ground balls put few punch outs. He experimented with sliders and curves, but neither pitch has been especially effective (-0.76 runs/100 for the slider, -0.2 runs/100 for the curve).
Pelfrey has shifted his pitching strategy this season, going to his fastball about two-thirds of the time and throwing a mid-80’s splitter nearly 19 percent. He’s still keeping the ball down (a career-high 52.5 GB%), but Pelfrey’s K rate has climbed to 6.53, his best showing in the majors. While he hasn’t morphed into the ace that his ERA (2.39) suggests, Pelfrey has a quality 3.87 xFIP. His strand rate (near 83 percent) and sub-six HR/FB rate will likely rise. Still, the changes in Pelfrey’s game make him an asset to the Mets and a guy worthy of fantasy consideration.
Jay Bruce, Reds
“The Boss” entered the season as a prime rebound candidate, given his history of pulverizing minor league pitching and his strong walk and power numbers that were obscured by a low BABIP in 2009. So far, so good for Cincy’s 23-year-old right fielder: Bruce has a .368 wOBA.
He hasn’t quite displayed the light-tower power of past seasons (.197 ISO), but Bruce is still putting a charge into the ball often enough while continuing to improve his plate discipline. His rate of swings on pitches outside of the strike zone has gone from 30.4% in 2008 to 26.1% last season, to 24.4% in 2010. Consequently, his walk rate has climbed — 7.3% in ’08, 9.8% in ’09 and 12.4% this year. Bruce has top-shelf secondary skills, and the best is yet to come.
Grady Sizemore, Indians
Eno was all over the news that Sizemore underwent microfracture surgery, a devastating blow to the Indians and fantasy owners who were looking for a rebound from one of the game’s best players — Sizemore averaged 6.4 WAR per season from 2005-2008, with a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA that was 33 percent above average (133 wRC+).
Sizemore declined to a 112 wRC+ during an ’09 season marred by abdominal and elbow injuries, both of which required surgical fixes. In 2010, he had a paltry 53 wRC+, as his normally excellent patience and pop were nowhere to be seen. Sizemore’s outside swing rate soared to 33 percent (19.1% career average) and his rate of swings on pitches within the zone dipped to 59.4% (65.3% career average). His ISO was just .078 (.204 career).
Hopefully the 27-year-old can return and resume being a franchise-type player, but the truth is, we just don’t know how the procedure will affect his play. Those in keeper leagues have to be feeling Sizemore’s pain.
Cameron Maybin, Marlins
Mike Stanton’s in the big leagues, and early indications are that Cody Ross will shift to center to make room for the 20-year-old masher. That means less PT for Maybin.
While fellow 2005 first-round fly catchers Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury and Colby Rasmus have established themselves in the majors, Maybin has scuffled. In 489 career PA, the 23-year-old has a .308 wOBA, with rough plate discipline (7.6 BB%, 31 K%).
Maybin’s at an uncomfortable, in-between state right now. He’ll either see reduced playing time in the majors, hardly optimal for his development, or perhaps he’ll head back to Triple-A, where he already proved himself last season (.387 wOBA). Ross could be headed out of town in the next couple of months, opening up an everyday job for Maybin. His long-term potential is still excellent. But for now, Maybin’s no longer a prospect and not yet an accomplished big leaguer.
J.J. Hardy Twins
Minnesota acquired Hardy during the off-season for CF Carlos Gomez, hoping that J.J. would provide superb D and produce offensively at a level closer to his 2007 (.338 wOBA) and 2008 (.355 wOBA) work than his .292 mark in 2009. While Hardy, 27, has lived up to expectations with the leather, he has been a near-automatic out at the dish.
When healthy enough to take the field (he served a DL stint with a left wrist sprain, which apparently is still bothering him), Hardy has a .268 wOBA. His .237 BABIP will improve to an extent (though his line drive rate is generally pretty low, and his pop up rate high). Hardy’s rest-of-season ZiPS projection has a .312 wOBA. Coupled with rangy defense, that’s good enough to make him a solid starter for the Twins. ZiPS doesn’t know about Hardy’s wrist, though, and fantasy players getting none of the benefits of Hardy’s glove will want to look elsewhere for shortstop help.
Fantasy managers are no doubt already beginning to panic. Don’t fee bad, I’m currently 10th overall in a 10-team mixed (auction) league. If you’re already combing the waiver wire for help (mind you, it’s far too early to panic), there is some potential value to be found. Add these players to your watch lists if they’re not already there.
Edwin Encarnacion | 3B | Toronto (8% owned)
Thankfully in fantasy baseball we don’t have to put up with Encarnacion’s brutal glove, which has already seen him make two errors in as many games. Still just 27, the third baseman has 25+ home run power and the Jays offense around him should be pretty good (it’s the pitching we really have to worry about). His batting average hasn’t been anything special over the past two seasons, but he’s also posted low BABIPs of .264 and .245 so there is plenty of room for improvement in that area. An average walk rate of 10.6% over the past two seasons suggests that Encarnacion has a pretty good eye at the plate and he’s shown a reasonable rate of strikeout in his career (for his power output).
J.J. Hardy | SS | Minnesota (21%)
One bad season all is forgotten in fantasy baseball. Hardy slugged 24 or more home runs in both ’07 and ’08 but slipped to 11 last season and also spent time in the minors. That was still good for the 12th most homers by a shortstop in the Majors in ’09; he has a chance to be more valuable in 2010 than some other ’09 shortstops such as Alexei Ramirez (2.2), Miguel Tejada (2.6), and Jason Bartlett (4.8), all of whom are owned in most leagues. Just 27, he’s poised for a rebirth in 2010 as a member of the Twins. Despite his struggles, Hardy has seen his walk rate improve each of the past three seasons.
Nick Johnson | DH | New York (23%)
I have to admit a little shock at the fact that Johnson is only owned by 23% of fantasy managers. He’s a proven veteran who just happens to be hitting at the top of a potent lineup. It must be the injury thing. I understand that but, when he’s healthy, Johnson can be a real benefit to a fantasy team in teams of runs scored and batting average. He even has 15-20 home run potential. If you’re playing in an on-base league, then you really should have the Walking Man. Johnson’s walk rate was 17.2% last season, third highest in the Majors last year and just behind Adrian Gonzalez and Adam Dunn. Interestingly, Johnson had just four intentional walks, while Gonzalez had 22 and Dunn had 16.
Mat Latos | RHP | San Diego (14%)
Youth + Power arm + Cavernous Park = Potential Stud. The 22-year-old Latos appears to be one of the best kept secrets in baseball. Everyone is jumping up and down about the Stephen Strasburgs and the Tommy Hansons, but they’re overlooking this kid. The right-hander held his own in 10 big league starts for the Padres in ’09. His walk rate of 4.09 BB/9 in the Majors was a tad high but was solid in the minors… especially for his age. He also displayed positive values on three of his four pitches. If he can show a little better control and improve ground-ball rate (36.1) he will be an absolute beast.
Ownership numbers courtesy of Yahoo Fantasy Baseball.