Archive for Ian Snell

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 22.

Jon Garland – After some ugly starts at the beginning of the year in Chase Field, Garland has settled down and been a reliable starter wherever he pitches for the last two-plus months. Since the beginning of July, Garland is 5-4 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Get him active for his two home starts this week.

Wade LeBlanc – If you are looking for a waiver addition with two starts this week LeBlanc could be your guy. Owned in just four percent of CBS Sports leagues, LeBlanc has won back-to-back games on the road. He allowed just six hits and two runs in 13 IP. He gets one home start this week in Petco and faces two of the worst teams in the majors in the Diamondbacks and Pirates, neither of which do particularly well against lefties.

Carl Pavano – The overall numbers in 2009 are not great for Pavano but he has been solid in his starts for Minnesota and has hurled Quality Starts in five of his seven outings for the Twins. Since the trade, Pavano is averaging 7.11 K/9 and he has a 1.26 WHIP. He has favorable matchups this week, with a start against Cleveland, the team he began the season with, and a matchup against Jarrod Washburn and the Tigers. Pavano did lose a game against the Indians earlier this month, but he notched 6 Ks in 6 IP in the road outing.

Ian Snell – Since a disastrous start against the Yankees in mid-August, Snell has been a useful fantasy pitcher. He has posted four wins in his last five games, with a 3.33 ERA, although his WHIP (1.48) and Ks (12 in 27 IP) have left owners wanting more. Snell is capable of adding strikeouts, he averaged 7.39 K/9 last year and hit 96 in his last start, and he gets two home starts this week, although one of them is a rematch with New York. Overall, I like his chances this week of picking up a win.

Sean West – The rookie has been solid for the Marlins this season since his promotion in late May. But he has a huge home/road split and this week he has two away games. Five of his six wins have come at Dolphin Stadium. On the road he is 1-3 with a 6.81 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. With starts this week in St. Louis (against Wainwright) and Cincinnati, leave West on the bench this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 24 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, Lincecum, Lee, Weaver, W. Rodriguez, Nolasco, Hanson, Dempster, Zambrano, Gallardo, Arroyo, Price, Niemann, Smoltz, Washburn, Duke, Hammel, McCarthy, Gaudin, Suppan, Sowers, Mock, Byrd, Parnell, Tomko, C. Torres, D. Hernandez, Purcey, Wells, Buckner, Berken, Chen.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 22 and how they did.

Cahill – Advised to start. 5.40 ERA, 3 Ks, 1.60 WHIP (1 start)
Richard – Advised to start. 1.35 ERA, 6 Ks, 0.90 WHIP (1)
Sanchez – Advised to sit. 1.50 ERA, 17 Ks, 1.00 WHIP (2)
Wakefield – Advised to sit. 6.00 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.50 WHIP (1)
Washburn – Advised to sit. 12.71 ERA, 2 Ks, 2.12 WHIP (1)

Stock Up

Gavin Floyd, White Sox

This past winter, I took a rather skeptical stance regarding Floyd’s “breakout” in 2008:

Unfortunately, there are a number of reasons to think that Floyd’s 2008 campaign was more the product of good fortune than great pitching. Floyd’s ERA was a shiny 3.84, but he surrendered 19 unearned runs- pitchers bear some responsibility for those tallies as well. His strikeout rate was pretty ordinary, as he punched out 6.32 batters per nine innings, while serving out 3.05 free passes per nine. With a 2.07 K/BB ratio that was actually below the 2.12 AL average, Floyd’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) was a mundane 4.77. The 0.93 run difference between his ERA and FIP was the fifth-largest among all starters. Floyd’s .268 BABIP is going to rise, and with it, so will his ERA.

Floyd’s ERA in 2009 (3.84) is an exact match for his 2008 work. However, there’s every reason to believe that it is legitimate this time around. In 185 IP, Gavin has whiffed 7.78 batters per nine innings, with 2.72 BB/9. His ’09 Fielding Independent ERA (3.77) is a full run lower than in 2008.

The 26 year-old righty’s fastball has never been an especially effective pitch (-0.91 runs/100 pitches during his career), and he seems to have adapted by throwing fewer and fewer heaters as the years go by. Floyd chucked a fastball 61 percent of the time in 2007, 54.7% in ’08 and just 48% in 2009.

In its place, the former Phillies prospect is relying more upon a cut fastball and a slider (the pitch data on Floyd’s page lumps them together, but his Pitch F/X data shows them as two distinct offerings). Couple that nasty pitch with a typically strong 80 MPH curveball (+2.75 runs/100) and a nice changeup (+1.15), and you have an awfully strong 2009 campaign. Normally susceptible to lefties (.279/.360/.518 from 2006-2008), Floyd and his new pitching strategy have subdued southpaws for a .227/.289/.378 line in 2009.

Pedro Martinez, Phillies

Pedro’s incredible career reached its nadir in Queens last season. He appeared to be breaking down physically, though his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate) of 4.61 was a full run lower than his 5.61 ERA. He looked as though he could be moderately useful at the back of someone’s rotation, but that was under the assumption that his shoulder or some other body part wouldn’t spontaneously combust.

After sitting out the first half of the 2009 campaign, Martinez inked a deal with the Phillies in July. Following a few minor league tune-ups, Pedro is giving big league hitters fits. During his first 23 frames, the wily 37 year-old Dominican Republic native has posted a 23/3 K/BB ratio.

It remains to be seen whether or not he can maintain the increase, but Martinez’s fastball velocity (88.6 MPH) is his highest since his last year with the Red Sox in 2004. Pedro’s pounding the strike zone (56 Zone%, 49% MLB avg.), getting ahead of batters (65.6 first-pitch strike%, 59% MLB avg.), and he’s getting outside swings when he lays one off the plate or in the dirt (29.9 O-Swing%, 25% MLB avg). Is there a more enjoyable pitcher to watch than Pedro? I think not.

Seth Smith, Rockies

Coors or no, Smith’s slugging exploits in 2009 (.317/.406/.572, 15 HR and a .419 wOBA in 315 PA) are impressive. The University of Mississippi product mashed in the minors and performed decently with the Rockies in 2008 (.349 wOBA in 123 PA), but it would have been difficult for anyone to see this coming. With +20.2 Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive value), Smith trails only Todd Helton among Colorado batters.

While no one should expect Smith to keep on eviscerating the ball like Pujols, he combines a very keen batting eye (13.1% walk rate, 20.2 O-Swing%) with plenty of pop. Smith’s rest-of-season projection pegs him for a .297/.366/.484 line. Even if that’s “all” he delivers, that’s very useful. Of course, finding consistent playing time in Colorado’s crowded outfield could be problematic. But if he keeps on lacing everything he sees into the gap or over the fence, he’ll find enough AB’s. Smith isn’t this good. But as a patient lefty batter with a quality minor league track record and little fanfare, he reminds me of a poor man’s Brian Giles.

Tim Hudson, Braves

Pedro isn’t the only prominent name returning to the hill as the 2009 season wraps up. Hudson underwent Tommy John surgery last August, but he has looked rather sharp in his first two starts this season. The mended 34 year-old has posted an 11/4 K/BB ratio, allowing 3 runs in 12.1 IP. Huddy’s still got his deep mix of pitches: the sinker, cutter, curve and splitter are all present.

Will Atlanta pick up Hudson’s $12M option for 2010? There’s a $1M buyout, so the Braves have to decide if they think he’s worth $11M. For Hudson to be “worth” the dough, he would have to post about 2.4 Wins Above Replacement ($11M, divided by the $4.5M per WAR that teams pay on the free agent market). It’s possible if he’s healthy, though Atlanta’s other financial commitments in the rotation (as Erik Manning notes in the linked post, Lowe is due $15M, Vazquez $11.5M and Kawakami roughly $7M) could play a part in the decision-making process.

Jake Fox, Cubs

With Alfonso Soriano’s knee injury possibly requiring arthroscopic surgery, Fox figures to keep getting penciled into the lineup.

Fox, of course, went Coo-Coo for Cocoa Puffs in the International League, and he has batted .282/.328/.520 in 198 big league PA for the Cubs. Fox obviously possesses scores of power (career .235 ISO in the minors), but he’s also a hacker of the highest degree (5.9 BB%, 37.1 O-Swing%). The 6-0, 210 pound Fox might take a page out of the Adam Dunn playbook defensively, but he could be useful to power-starved owners looking for an offensive jolt.

Stock Down

Geovany Soto, Cubs

Soto pieced together a superb rookie season in 2008 (.371 wOBA), but his 2009 campaign has been defined by shoulder and oblique injuries, as well an anemic offensive showing (.310 wOBA). The 26 year-old Soto is in Lou Pinella’s dog house, with Koyie Hill stealing more AB’s.

Despite the rapid downturn in his numbers, there are reasons to believe that Soto circa 2008 and this year’s version are largely the same. His walk rate his up (11.2 BB% to 13.4%), his K rate is down (24.5% to 23.2%), he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone (20.1% in ’08, 18.1% in ’09), and his contact rate has increased (74.7% to 77.6%). Soto’s ISO is down (.219 to .162), but it wasn’t reasonable to expect a .200+ ISO from him again, and a .162 ISO is still excellent for a backstop. Geo still has the skills to be a big asset, if the Cubs are willing to play him.

Ian Snell, Mariners

Huh? Snell has won four straight starts for the Mariners. Surely he’s pitching like a stud, right? Well, not really. During that winning streak, the banished Bucco has only surrendered 7 runs in 21.2 frames. But he has done so despite actually walking more batters (11) than he struck out (10). Snell looked to be a long-terms asset for Pittsburgh following a 2007 season in which he posted rates of 7.66 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9, with a 4.01 FIP in 208 IP. The former 26th-round pick out of Delaware inked a three-year, $8.6M extension with the team in March of 2008, with club options for the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

Since then, however, Snell has been on a downward slope. He kept the K’s but lost the strike zone in 2008 (7.39 K/9, 4.87 BB/9), and his peripherals are looking Daniel Cabrera-esque in 2009 (5.52 K/9, 5.21 BB/9). Sensing Snell’s wildness, opposing batters have gradually swung at fewer pitches out of the strike zone (from 28.2% in ’07 to 21% in ’09; 25% MLB average). Consequently, his first-pitch strike percentage has plummeted from 63.7% during his banner 2007 to 52.1% in 2009 (59% MLB average). That’s the lowest rate among all starters tossing at least 100 innings.

Kevin Millwood, Rangers

Despite holding an ERA (3.77) that’s 1.3 runs lower than his 2008 mark (5.07), Millwood is not really pitching any better. In fact, one could make the case that his 2008 season was actually stronger.

Millwood’s K/BB ratio was 2.55 in ’08, but it’s just 1.62 in ’09. His FIP in 2008 was 4.02, yet it’s 4.89 this season. The difference? A massive change in BABIP, from .366 in ’08 to .279 in ’09. Texas’ dramatic improvement with the leather has surely played a part (28th in team UZR in 2008, 6th in 2009), but Millwood has also been pretty darned fortunate. Millwood’s tight rope act appears to be running thread-bare, however. Since the All-Star break, he has given up 22 runs in 42 frames, with a mediocre 1.24 K/BB.

Grady Sizemore, Indians

Sizemore’s 2009 season is over, as Cleveland’s cornerstone player undergoes a pair of surgeries to fix a balky elbow and an “instability of the abdominal wall.” Sizemore has turned in an ’09 campaign that most would characterize as disappointing (.343 wOBA, .248/.343/.445 line in 503 PA), but his core skills are still very much intact.

Grady walked 12.1% of the time, punching out 21.1% and posting a near-.200 ISO (.197). According to this Expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, Sizemore was pretty unlucky this year. His BABIP was just .276, yet his XBABIP (which uses HR, SB, groundballs, fly balls and pop ups in addition to line drive rate) was .309.

Even if we assume that all of Grady’s extra hits would be singles, his line “should” be closer to .281/.376/.478. That’s a typical Sizemore season (his career line is .275/.367/.485). About the only facet of Grady’s game that was truly off was his base stealing (13 SB, 8 CS). Don’t be scared off by his “down” 2009 season. Sizemore is still the same championship-caliber player he has always been, and he could be quite the bargain on draft day next year.

Josh Hamilton, Rangers

Hamilton’s first season in Texas was excellent (.385 wOBA), but 2009 has been marred by injuries and an impatient approach at the dish. Battling rib, groin, abdominal and back maladies, Hamilton has batted just .270/.318/.426 in 355 PA, with a .322 wOBA. Adjusting for his home ballpark, the 28 year-old has been below-average with the stick (-3.5 Batting Runs).

Hamilton’s walk rate has dipped from 9.3% in 2008 to 6.9% in ’09, with a 35.7 O-Swing%. He’s still crushing fastballs (+1.48 runs/100 pitches seen), but breaking stuff (-1.14 for the slider, -2.12 for the curve) and changeups (-2.53) are giving Hamilton nightmares. Perhaps noting Hamilton’s tendency to expand his zone, opposing pitchers have placed just 43.3% of their pitches within the zone against him (49% MLB avg). Josh is currently sidelined with a pinched nerve in his back.

Stock Up

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto displayed his superb talent last season, though his tendency to cough up homers and occasionally lose the strike zone dragged down his overall line. In 2009, he’s made progress on both fronts. In 39.2 frames, Cueto has a 3.13 FIP, the product of a 2.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.32 in ’08) and 0.45 HR/9. There’s certainly been some lucky bounces here to produce that 1.59 ERA: Cueto’s BABIP is .260, his strand rate is near 90% and his 4.2 HR/FB% is extremely low.

On the bright side, he’s shaved a little more than one walk per nine innings off his 2008 total (2.50 BB/9 this year, 3.52 in ’08). While his K rate (7.26 K/9) is down from last season (8.17), the overall net effect is positive (as Justin pointed out in the comments section, Cueto’s K/PA figure is slightly higher this year due to his efficiency). Cueto’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP), based on a pitcher’s K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, checks in at 4.34 (4.62 last season).

Jay Bruce, Reds

It’s the all-Reds edition of Stock Watch! A 22 year-old lefty with immense power, Bruce has adapted to major league pitching faster than most anticipated. With a .391 wOBA, 10 big flys and a sweet .262/.342/.570 line, Bruce has certainly been The Boss in 2009. Happily, his control of the strike zone (his biggest hurdle) has improved. Bruce has drawn a walk 10.1% of the time in 2009 (7.4% last year), whiffed less often (20.6% in ’09, 26.6% in ’08), and has cut his Outside-Swing percentage from 30.4% to 25.7%. In other words, he’s already among the best outfielders in the game, and he’ll only get better from here.

Carl Crawford, Rays

Crawford has probably stolen about six bases since I started typing this sentence. Tampa’s swift left fielder has been an absolute terror on the base paths in 2009, going a perfect 22-for-22 on stolen base attempts. With 3 more thefts, Crawford will match his total from an injury-marred 2008 season. If we use Tom Tango’s SB run value of +.19, then Crawford is closing in on half a win added in the stolen base department already.

Fortunately, Crawford is showing progress in other facets of his game as well. His Outside Swing% is down to 24.8%, from last year’s hacktastic 31.5% mark (24.4% MLB average). His 8.8% walk rate isn’t awe-inspiring, but it is the highest mark of his career. With 1.7 Wins Above Replacement, Crawford has been one of the ten most productive position players in the game.

Edwin Jackson, Tigers

Let’s give credit where it’s due: Jackson has been pretty darned effective in 2009. He came to Detroit with a reputation as a radar-gun curiosity who didn’t miss many bats or control the zone particularly well, but he’s making strides. Jackson isn’t a 2.60 ERA pitcher (duh), but his K/BB ratio is an impressive 3.18. With 7 K’s per nine and 2.20 BB/9, Jackson holds a 3.51 FIP. He’s looking more legitimate by the start.

David Wright, Mets

Wright’s early-season scuffle raised both panic and ire, but he’s just fine now. His wOBA is back up to .367, and he’s popped enough extra-base hits of late to raise his Isolated Power to .174. Wright is batting .364/.436/.697 in May. Hopefully, you didn’t sell low. One aspect of Wright’s game that is curiously diminishing is his stolen base ability. He was 34-for-39 in 2007, 15-for-20 in 2008 and just 5-for-10 in 2009.

Stock Down

Scott Kazmir, Rays

What happens to a control-challenged southpaw when he loses his ability to dominate hitters? Take a gander at Kazmir to find out. The 25 year-old’s walk rate has increased for a fourth straight season (4.97 BB/9), but he’s just not fooling batters the way he used to (7.11 K/9). Kazmir’s fastball velocity has dipped from 91.7 MPH in 2008 to just 89.9 MPH in 2009, and his hard, mid-80’s power slider is now more of a low-octane frisbee (80.4 MPH). With just 46.4% of his offerings crossing home plate (48.9% MLB average) and opponents making contact 84.3% of the time (75.1% career average), something is wrong with the Rays’ former ace.

Mike Aviles, Royals

Tony Pena Jr. might be on the DL, but Aviles has compensated by doing his best impression. After an unexpectedly productive rookie season, Aviles’ bat has flat lined in 2009. Impatient to a fault (2.9 BB%), the 28 year-old isn’t getting any favorable bounces on balls put in play (.247 BABIP). His nefarious .226 wOBA is fifth-worst among all batters, and he’s been nearly a win below replacement level with the lumber already. With lackluster play in the field as well (-12.6 UZR/150), Aviles has been an anchor on Kansas City’s hopes of staying competitive.

Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks

Never exactly known for his feats of strength (career .150 ISO and .431 SLG%), Jackson has been downright punchless this season. His microscopic .071 ISO ranks among the worst in the game. Jackson is not this bad, mind you: his .210 BABIP is incredibly low, so he should revert back more toward his usual level of production as the season goes on. The question is: is that enough? Underpowered as a first baseman, Jackson’s work in left field is still under review. Singles-hitting corner players aren’t exactly in vogue, so the 27 year-old is going to have to show some thump to do more good than harm to Arizona’s dwindling playoff chances.

Jeff Francoeur, Braves

Francoeur is this generation’s Joe Carter, compiling counting stats that mask the fact that he’s sort of a drag on his team’s offense. Frenchy continues to show next to no progress in terms of plate discipline, wildly hacking at 34.6% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Not coincidentally, his First-Pitch Strike% is a career-high 71 percent (57.6% MLB average). Francoeur has gotten behind 0-1 or put the ball in play on the first pitch more than any other batter in the majors. With a wretched .290 OBP and little pop (.136 ISO), he’s produced a .299 wOBA. Showing apparent apathy toward working the count, Francoeur is an absolute mess at the plate right now.

Ian Snell, Pirates

Snell scarcely resembles the guy who posted a 4.01 FIP during the 2007 campaign. After walking 2.94 batters per nine innings during that year, Snell’s control took a giant leap back in ’08 (4.87 BB/9) and continues to go south in 2009 (5.4 BB/9). His K rate, 8.18 during his first full season in the big in 2006, checks in at just 6.08 this year (the continuation of a four-year decline). He’s not fooling much of anyone, and has put just 44.3% of his pitches within the strike zone (48.9% MLB average). Snell will continue to take his turns on a pitching-starved staff, but he hasn’t pitched like an above-average starter in quite some time. His FIP is 5.33.

With a month’s worth of games in the books, let’s take a quick look at the starting pitchers who have significantly over performed or underperformed, based on their Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). By taking a gander at those core numbers (strikeouts, walks, homers), we can get a better idea of which hot starts are unlikely to last or which “struggling” starters might be in for a rebound. First up, those who have posted an ERA significantly better than their FIP would indicate. These are the guys who might slip going forward, if their peripherals don’t improve.

Kevin Millwood, Rangers

2.13 ERA, 4.37 FIP

This is certainly change for Millwood, whose FIP outpaced his ERA from 2006-2008. The 34 year-old has hardly been bad (Millwood isn’t missing many bats with 5.21 K/9, but his walk rate is a nifty 1.89 per nine). It’s just that his .220 BABIP and a very high strand rate (86.7% of runners put on base have been left out in the cold) make his work look ace-like as opposed to just slightly above league-average.

Ian Snell, Pirates

3.72 ERA, 5.90 FIP

Snell is one of many Bucco hurlers outperforming his FIP thus far- Pittsburgh’s staff has a collective 3.38 ERA, but a much less impressive FIP of 4.75. Snell rode the opposite wagon in 2008, posting a middling 4.57 FIP but a ghastly 5.42 ERA. The righty has an unimpressive 1.11 K/BB ratio in 2009, the product of 6.21 K/9 and a Blassian 5.59 BB/9. Just 43.4% of his pitches have been in the strike zone (48.9% MLB average).

Chris Volstad, Marlins

2.67 ERA, 4.83 FIP

Toting a low-90’s sinker and a big curve, Volstad was never considered a power pitcher in the minors (his career K rate was 5.9 per nine innings.) So far in ’09, though? The 6-7 righty has punched out 8.01 per nine, while still generating grounders (53.2 GB%). His control hasn’t been very sharp (3.56 BB/9) and his BABIP is absurdly low (.182, lowest among all starters). Volstad surely won’t keep a sub-three ERA, but there are actually a number of positives here: in addition to the extra whiffs and continued grounders, Volstad has been rather unlucky in the HR department (1.48 HR/9 and a wacky-high 19.2 HR/FB%). If you view his work through Expected FIP (XFIP) instead (which normalizes HR/FB rates to root out outlier performances on flyballs), Volstad checks in at 4.09. He’s not an ace, but there’s a lot to like.

Braden Looper, Brewers

2.45 ERA, 4.54 FIP

Looper has basically been his league-average self in Bratwurst Town, though he’s both whiffed (6.55 K/9) and walked (4.5 BB/9) more than normal (career 5.25 K/9 and 2.87 BB/9). The former Cardinal, Marlin, Met, Cardinal again and now Brewer has lucked out in stranding runners (86.5% strand rate).

Edwin Jackson, Tigers

2.25 ERA, 4.24 FIP

Jackson has gotten a lot of play as a breakout performer in 2009, and to his credit he has shown some improvement in Mo Town. His previously oscillating control (his career BB/9 is 4.37) has been pretty crisp (2.25 BB/9 in ’09), and batters are offering at a higher percentage of the pitches that he throws out of the strike zone (28.5 Outside Swing%, well above his 21.3% career average and the 24.3% MLB average). He’s also avoided being beaten like a drum by left-handed batters, holding southpaws to a .497 OPS in 2009 (his career mark is .810).

So, Jackson performed like a pretty good mid-rotation starter in April. But let’s not get too ahead of ourselves here: his BABIP is .233, and he’s still missing bats at a clip slightly below the league average (Jackson has K’d 5.91 per nine this season).

With spring training in full swing and most drafts set to begin, now seems like the perfect time to recap which starting pitchers might see a dip or rebound in their respective performances. Here’s a quick look at the five hurlers with the largest discord between their Earned Run Average and Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Let’s take a look at the guys who couldn’t catch a break in 2008.

1.) Livan Hernandez, Mets (Twins and Rockies in ’08)
6.05 ERA, 4.94 FIP

With a fastball that couldn’t tear through tissue paper (83.7 MPH), Livan surrendered an astounding 257 hits in 180 innings pitched. Sure, his .345 BABIP will likely fall somewhat, but Hernandez is still to be avoided in all fantasy leagues. His lone skill at this point is showing up for work every fifth day. Hernandez’s combination of average pitching and durability was once quite valuable (he tallied Win Values of 4.5 in 2003 and 4.6 in 2004 while with the Expos), but there’s nothing to see here now.

2.) Kevin Millwood, Rangers
5.07 ERA, 4.02 FIP

Millwood’s peripherals weren’t terrible last year (6.67 K/9, 2.61 BB/9), but he was felled by a .366 BABIP, highest among all qualified starters. The 34 year-old did surrender line drives aplenty, however (25.3 LD%).

3.) Javier Vazquez, Braves (White Sox in ’08)
4.67 ERA, 3.74 FIP

Vazquez has long been the subject of head-scratching in sabermetric circles. Low-90’s heat, a pair of nasty breaking balls, a solid changeup, strong K/BB ratios…Javy looks like an ace. However, despite strong career rates (7.99 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 3.93 FIP), Vazquez’s ERA sits at a fair-but-unspectacular 4.32. Vazquez always seems to go five innings strong, only to groove that One Bad Pitch (TM) that makes his outing look a bit less impressive. His career OPS against in innings 1-5 is .721. In the sixth inning? .867.

Javy posted another strong campaign in ’08 (8.64 K/9, 2.64 BB/9), but a .328 BABIP made his performance appear worse than it really was. Don’t be surprised if this flyball hurler posts a sub-four ERA, now that he’s out of The Cell and back in the NL.

4.) Ian Snell, Pirates
5.42 ERA, 4.57 FIP

Snell battled some health issues and his control in ’08 (4.87 BB/9). On the plus side, he retained his velocity and still punched out a decent 7.39 batters per nine innings. Behind one of the most execrable defensive clubs in the majors (the Bucs ranked 21st in team UZR/150 and 28th in Defensive Efficiency), Snell had the misfortune of surrendering a .358 BABIP. If he wants to get back to his promising 2007 form (4.01 FIP), Snell is going to have to cut the free passes and find something to quell left-handed batters. Relying almost exclusively on a fastball/slider combo, Snell has allowed the average southpaw to turn into late-career Todd Helton against him (.301/.387/.494).

5.) Andy Pettitte, Yankees
4.54 ERA, 3.71 FIP

In many respects, Pettitte’s 2008 season mirrored his work from the previous two years with the Astros and Yankees. He posted his lowest FIP since 2005, with a sturdy 2.87 K/BB ratio. Unfortunately, the porous Bronx Bombers D let Pettitte down, and he allowed a .339 BABIP. As a pitcher who generates a fair amount of groundballs, Pettitte is going to need better work from 2B Robinson Cano (a plus defender in ’07, but he came in at -6.4 UZR/150 in ’08) while living with SS Derek Jeter’s limited range. New first baseman Mark Teixeira should help matters to some extent. A switch-hitting force, Tex was also a vacuum with the Braves and Angels in 2008 (9.4 UZR/150).

From the moment that Ian Snell (then named Ian Oquendo) was selected as a 26th-round afterthought in the 2000 amateur draft, he has had to fight an uphill battle to prove himself a capable major league starter. The Delaware native always possessed a live arm, but his diminutive stature (5-11, 198) gave scouts pause, and led many to predict that he would reside in the bullpen long-term. As Baseball America’s 2004 prospect handbook summed it up, “with his slight stature and two above-average pitches, he could wind up as a closer in the big leagues.”

As he breezed through the Pittsburgh farm system, however, Snell’s performance as a starter was too good to ignore. With 8.6 K’s per nine innings and 2.3 BB/9, Snell established himself as one of the most promising arms in the organization at the same time that high-pedigreed hurlers such as Bobby Bradley, John Van Benschoten and Sean Burnett fell by the wayside.

After a fairly promising 2006 season (4.58 FIP, 2.28 K/BB), Snell appeared to break through in 2007. His strikeout rate fell somewhat (from 8.18 in ’06 to 7.66 in ’07), but he trimmed his walks from 3.58 per nine innings to 2.94. He also made better use of his full arsenal of pitches, as worked in an 84 MPH changeup 10.2% of the time to supplement his 92 MPH fastball (52.5%) and 84 MPH slider (37.3%). With his HR/FB rate regressing from an astronomical 14.9% to 9.6%, Snell’s HR/9 figure dropped from 1.4 in 2006 to 0.95 in 2007. His FIP came in at a tidy 4.01.

After crossing the 200-inning threshold in ’07 and seemingly solidifying himself as the club’s ace, Snell did not fare near as well in 2008, as his ERA ballooned from 3.76 to 5.42.

While there some concerns that we’ll get to later, let’s focus on the positives first. Snell’s ERA was cringe-worthy, but it certainly overstated the extent of his struggles. His K rate remained relatively stable (7.39) and his FIP was a little worse than league-average, at 4.57. As Peter chronicled earlier, Snell was one of many Pittsburgh hurlers who suffered in front of an iron-gloved Bucco defense (19th in UZR at -17.8, 28th in Defensive Efficiency). Snell’s .358 BABIP was the second-highest mark among all qualified starters- only Kevin Millwood (.366) fared worse on balls put in play.

So, Snell wasn’t near as bad as his ERA or won-loss record would have you believe. Still, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t some negatives to take out of his season. His walk rate jumped significantly, up to 4.87 per nine innings. Not surprisingly, Snell’s first-pitch strike percentage fell from 63.7% in 2007 to 56.5% in 2008; that put him in the same range as Livan Hernandez and Daniel Cabrera.

Generally speaking, a shoulder injury for a pitcher may materialize in decreased velocity, while an elbow malady is characterized by loss of control. Snell appears to fit that line of thought, as he hit the DL in late June with a strained right elbow. I’m not going to attempt to predict Snell’s health going forward, but it seems plausible that he could cut his free passes to a more tolerable level if the elbow is healed up.

Snell’s pitch selection also shifted in ’08, and not necessarily for the better . He increased his fastball usage nearly ten percent (from 52.5% to 62.2%), while still relying heavily on his slider (32.7%). Snell cut the use of his changeup in half, using the pitch only 5.1% of the time this past season.

One criticism that Snell faced as he climbed the ladder was his lack of a third offering. The 27 year-old uses his changeup reluctantly, instead preferring to focus on his fastball/slider mix against both lefties and righties. Without a pitch that reliably moves away from opposite-handed batters, Snell as had his share of problems with left-handed hitters. They hit him relatively hard in 2007 (.284/.353/.447), but 2008 was much worse: southpaws facing Snell transformed into Joe Mauer, scorching him to the tune of .314/.415/.498. Snell’s change doesn’t look like a bad pitch, dropping about four inches more in the zone than his fastball (the league average is about 2.9). Perhaps Snell doesn’t trust his changeup, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt to mix a few more in there against the lefties.

Going forward, Snell will almost certainly post a much lower ERA in 2009. Even if he were to continue walking a bunch of batters, his peripherals suggest he would be a league-average starter. If his elbow is mended and his control improves, he could compile another FIP in the low fours. That’s not headline-grabbing, but it’s certainly useful. However, if Snell is going to take the next step, he’s going to have to find a way to keep those pesky southpaws at bay.