Archive for Homer Bailey

If you are in H2H championships right now, you are probably thinking of streaming or already knee deep in probable starters as we speak. Here’s a quick run-down of the more interesting starters by day for the final weekend. Good luck!

Friday
Mark Rogers is starting against the Reds and if you need strikeouts and strikeouts alone, he’s an interesting name. He missed all of 2007 and 2008 with labrum surgeries (torn!) and yet he’s got his velocity back up to 94/95 MPH and has shown his characteristic strikeout punch again (10.06 K/9 in his minor league career). Then again, Rogers has control problems (5.67 BB/9 career in minor leagues), to put it mildly. He also saw a reduced strikeout rate (about one per inning) after the surgeries. In more shallow leagues, the strikeouts-and-strikeouts alone option is Bud Norris, but that’s living on the edge, too, despite his nice FIP (4.16).

PIcking up Pat Misch might be a misch-take but at least he doesn’t walk people (0.93 BB/9 this year, 2.53 career), and is keeping the ball on the ground this year (51.8%). The Washington lineup will also be without Ryan Zimmerman, so he’ll have less opposition. He’s probably the safest streamer Friday. Jordan Zimmermann is also safer than Rogers (most starters are), and offers more strikeout ability than Misch, but he’s been limited to about five innings per start, so his ability to get you a “W” has been adversely affected.

The Kyle Kendrick / Brandon Beachy tilt is probably best to be avoided, given Kendrick’s FIP (4.91) and Beachy’s lack of experience and the stress of the moment. If you’re going to take the dive on one of the two, try Beachy, who has always shown great control in the minor leagues (2.12 BB/9), and added strikeout punch as he advanced.

Saturday
Saturday is actually a rough day for streamers, with a lot of established pitchers taking their final turns. Chris Capuano has been pitching decently and should be fresh, but his career numbers (4.34 ERA / 1.35 WHIP) were accrued in over 700 innings and shouldn’t be ignored. He’s pretty vanilla and only struck out one dude in his last start. His opponent, Homer Bailey, offers much more in the way of strikeout ability and risk. But Bailey’s only given up more than four runs once in his past ten appearances, so maybe he’s not as risky as we think. He’s pitching as a post-season audition and has a 3.89 FIP, he’s a decent spot starter.

Tim Stauffer is flying off the shelves (14% owned now), and for good reason. He’s got a great final matchup against the Giants, and has finally regained that groundball-inducing stuff (53.7%) that made him interesting before the injuries. His FIP (2.84) and opponent makes him the best spot starter of the day. Wade Davis is also an interesting name for the day, as he has a good matchup (the Royals) and has been pitching better since the half-way mark (3.36 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9).

Joe Saunders and Alex Sanabia both have nice matchups (the Dodgers in LA and the Pirates in Florida, respectively), and they limit the walks (2.93 and 1.99 BB/9), but both have poor strikeout rates (5 and 5.85 K/9), so they are better options for those looking to protect ratios than those looking for the K.

Sunday
A little tip for roto players looking to get the most out of their innings limits. On Yahoo, the innings limits are enforced at the end of the day. So if you have one inning going into the final day, you can throw as many arms as you like that day and receive credit for all of them. It may not be in the spirit of the rule, but it is in the rules, and winning eases all pains. If you have little to lose in regards to your ratios, you might as well throw everyone you can that day.

That said, it’s not a great day for streaming. The shallow league prize is probably Ted Lilly, who has a nice matchup against the K-happy Diamondbacks in Los Angeles, but he’s owned in 62% of leagues and you’d have to get lucky to find him on your wire. Mike Pelfrey seems streaky and is in the midst of a decent stretch (only two starts of 3+ runs allowed in his last ten) and he gets the scrubs the Nationals want to run out on their final day in a decent matchup. He’s available about half the time, too. Randy Wolf would be a better matchup if he weren’t a flyballer going into Cincinnati, but he’s been strong this second half at least (3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and is a known quantity.

The deep league prize is probably Marc “Scrabble” Rzepczynski, who is once again striking out over eight per nine (8.1 K/9) and keeping the ball on the ground (51.7%). His walks are once again a little too high, though (4.45 BB/9 this year, 4.42 career), so as his FIP shows (4.87), he’s not without risk. Then again, it doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will risk too many of their regulars on the last day, and Scrabble is coming off of a string of good starts, including his last, a gem against the Yankees. I’d rather use him than his opponent Nick Blackburn, as his groundball-inducing repertoire will be going up against a slew of Jays trying to pad career-high homer totals. Strength on strength, I’m not betting against Jose Bautista et al, at least not this year.

Otherwise, it’s a tough day. Had Brad Bergesen not blown up against the Rays, he might look like a decent start against the weaker Tigers offense, but there is that five-run start looking up at you from his game log (as well as his poor strikeout numbers (4.25 K/9) and well-deserved FIP (5.20)). Brian Burres gets an okay matchup in Florida, but he’s not a good pitcher (5.01 K/9, 4.89 FIP). If you are scraping the bottom of this barrel, you’d be better off trying Esmil Rogers, who gets to pitch in St. Louis and has shown the ability to keep the ball on the ground (50.7% career GB) and garner the strikeout (8.47 K/9 this year). Call Rogers the surprise at the bottom of the cracker jacks.

Wilson Betemit, Royals (Owned in 2% of Yahoo Leagues)

It has been an awfully long time since Betemit signed (illegally) with the Atlanta Braves as a 14-year-old Dominican shortstop in 1996. He was once Atlanta’s organizational golden child, ranking as eighth-best prospect in the game (according to Baseball America) prior to 2002. Betemit has since donned Dodger blue and pinstripes of both the Bronx and South Side variety. Now a 28-year-old with dubious defensive qualifications, the switch-hitter is keeping third base warm for Mike Moustakas following the Alberto Callaspo trade.

In 175 plate appearances for K.C., Betemit has a .342/.423/.559 triple-slash and a .424 wOBA. He’s not gonna keep a .421 BABIP, but it’s not unreasonable to expect him to hit at a level that’s slightly above the big league average. In 1,450 career PA, Betemit has batted .268/.336/.447, which translates to a .336 wOBA and a 106 wRC+. He’ll occasionally take a seat against left-handed pitching, and his D (-13 UZR/150 in 1,885 innings at 3B) won’t endear him to Ned Yost. But ZiPS projects Betemit for a moderately useful .266/.329/.422 for the rest of the season.

Homer Bailey, Reds (8%)

With Mike Leake bullpen-bound in an effort to limit his innings and Johnny Cueto serving a suspension for kicking Jason LaRue in the head during a skirmish with the Cardinals, Bailey got a spot-start for Cincy on August 15th. The 24-year-old whiffed four Fish and walked none, tossing six scoreless frames. Bailey got another start versus the Dodgers on the 20th and shined once again (7 IP, 6/2 K/BB, 1 run).

Few players have frustrated fantasy players more than the seventh pick in the 2004 draft, and Bailey missed nearly three months with right shoulder inflammation this season. But when on the bump, he has performed decently — in 63.2 innings pitched, he’s got 7.21 K/9, 3.25 BB/9 and a 4.35 xFIP. It remains to be seen whether the change sticks, but Bailey has displayed better control and is getting ahead in the count more often (61.5 first pitch strike percentage, compared to a mid-fifties mark from 2007-2009 and a 58-59% MLB average). There are no guarantees here, given Homer’s injury issues and the possibility that he does get bumped to the ‘pen. Still, he’s making progress and possesses more upside than most waiver wire fodder.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Three.

Homer Bailey – Long touted as one of the top young pitchers in baseball, Bailey is having the same struggles early in 2010 as he has had throughout his career in the majors – too many walks and trouble with gopher balls. Bailey has a 5.23 BB/9 and has allowed 2 HR in 10.1 IP this year. Bailey has two starts this week at home, where he has allowed 16 of his 25 homers. While neither the Dodgers nor Padres are big HR teams, Bailey at home for two starts is still a good recipe for disaster. Making things even worse is the slow start offensively for the Reds, who are 15th in the NL with an average of 4.30 runs per game.

Brandon Morrow – The good news for Morrow is that his xFIP is half of his ERA. The bad news is that his ERA is 12.00 after two starts. Control has always been an issue for Morrow and he has allowed 6 BB in 9 IP this year. Adding to his problems are that his velocity is down, which may be contributing to the troubles this year with his changeup. His change is already 2.5 runs below average. Morrow is trying to compensate by throwing more curves, but that pitch sits at 1.8 runs below average. Even with a home start against the Royals, put Morrow on the bench until he shows something better than he has so far this season.

Brett Myers – To the dismay of my Razzball team, Myers has been decent so far this season, including a tough loss to the Cardinals in his last outing in which he allowed 1 ER in 7 IP. His fastball velocity still sits below 90, but Myers has cut way back on the number of times he has thrown his heater, down to throwing just 40.5 percent fastballs. Instead, he is now an off-speed pitcher, throwing his curve nearly 32 percent of the time and his slider over 24 percent. The result has been more swings out of the strike zone and more ground balls, two positive changes. Try riding Myers in his home starts this week against the Marlins and Pirates. With the Astros finally winning a game, anything is possible now!

Mike Pelfrey – Before the season started, I thought Pelfrey and his one-pitch repertoire was destined for the bullpen. Instead, he has been the best pitcher for the Mets the first two weeks of the season, with a 2-0 record and a 1.38 ERA. In his last outing against the Rockies, in which he threw seven innings of shutout ball in Colorado, Pelfrey threw five pitches. He threw 13 sliders, 10 curves and 7 changeups according to PitchFX. And 65 percent of his pitches were strikes, including 21 of his 30 off-speed pitches. He gets home starts this week against the Cubs and Braves. It feels like bizarro world recommending both Myers and Pelfrey.

Kevin Slowey – Uncharacteristically, Slowey has had trouble with walks so far this season. After three straight seasons of BB/9 rates under 1.50, Slowey has a 5.23 mark so far this season. But he faces two teams that are below average in the American League in drawing walks, including the 13th-place Royals. Slowey is also a notorious fly ball pitcher, his 0.69 GB/FB mark is the 12th lowest in baseball, and the concern is that he will get roughed up with some home runs. But the Indians are tied for 12th in fewest homers hit. The matchups look good, so make sure Slowey is active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 2 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Haren, Lackey, Hanson, Cain, de la Rosa, Billingsley, Zambrano, Price, Vazquez, Porcello, Penny, Kazmir, Wells, Niemann, Masterson, Pineiro, G. Gonzalez, Cook, Lewis, Volstad, Wakefield, Richard, Willis, Bush, Niese, Bannister, Bergesen, Kendrick, Fister, Olsen, Morton, Stammen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

A few days ago, I highlighted some former top position prospects who once graced magazine covers and had fantasy players’ hearts aflutter, but have since fallen out of favor. Today, let’s do the same with starting pitchers. Here’s the Fallen Prospect Starting Rotation.

Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox

CHONE: 151 IP, 7.33 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 1.07 HR/9, 4.27 FIP

When a much-discussed hurler gets the big league call and chucks a no-hitter in his second start, expectations can become so enormous that anything short of that pitcher becoming a Roger Clemens/Nolan Ryan love child seems like a let-down.

Buchholz, who turned 25 last August, has logged 190.2 innings in the majors from 2007-2009, with a 4.91 ERA. That screams mediocrity. But his peripherals are more promising. The 6-3 right-hander has struck out 7.65 batters per nine innings, while posting a 49.9 percent groundball rate. His control hasn’t been precise (4.11 BB/9), but Buchholz has a more palatable 4.13 expected fielding independent ERA (xFIP). Buchholz has performed like an above-average starter, but a .317 BABIP and a near 14 percent home run per fly ball rate have obscured his quality work.

Known for his diverse arsenal of pitches, Buchholz has succeeded in the majors with his slider (+2.30 runs per 100 pitches), curveball (+0.52) and changeup (+0.42). His fastball, on the other hand, has been more than a run below average (-1.04).

However, his heater velocity did perk up in 2009. In 2008, Buchholz threw his fastball for a strike 61.8 percent of the time. In ‘09, his fastball was thrown for a strike 65.9 percent. His ceiling is still wicked high.

Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds

CHONE: 158 IP, 7.35 K/9, 3.87 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9 4.66 FIP

The seventh pick in the 2004 draft won’t turn 24 until May, but his odyssey in pro ball has taken him from uber-prospect to perceived bust to promising, if unpolished starter. Bailey was beaten badly during his first two stints in the big leagues (5.59 xFIP in 2007 and a 5.16 xFIP in 2008). But in 2009, he turned in a quality season at the Triple-A level (89.2 IP, 8.23 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 3.86 FIP) and pitched at a league-average level (4.58 xFIP) in the majors.

Bailey has a four-pitch mix, including a mid-80’s slider/cutter, high-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup, but he chooses to fire his fastball well over 70 percent of the time. Like Buchholz, Bailey got some extra oomph on his fastball this past year, sitting 94-95 MPH instead of 91-92 MPH like in ’07 and ’08. He’s basically an average starter right now, with the upside for more than that if he makes gains with his control and secondary stuff.

Sean Gallagher, San Diego Padres

CHONE: 102 IP, 8.12 K/9, 3.97 BB/9, 0.79 HR/9, 3.91 FIP

A former Cub and Athletic picked up by the Padres last July, Gallagher scarcely pitched in 2009 after suffering a left knee injury. In 2008, though, the right-hander used his low-90’s gas, hard slider and slow curve to punch out 8.04 batters per nine innings in 115.1 IP with Chicago and Oakland. He does lose the strike zone often (career 4.93 BB/9), and lets hitters loft the ball frequently (35.8 GB%).

Gallagher will need to stop being so generous with the walks, but Petco Park should help mitigate those extreme fly ball proclivities, should they persist (his near-50 percent groundball rate in the minors suggests that his GB/FB split might not be that pronounced moving forward).

The 24 year-old is not currently penciled in to San Diego’s rotation. However, with Chris Young’s recent ailments, concerns over Mat Latos‘ workload and the checkered health history of Tim Stauffer, the out-of-options Gallagher figures to get a shot at some point.

Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays

Bill James (CHONE’s projection for Morrow comes in relief): 135 IP, 8.73 K/9, 5.27 BB/9, 0.87 HR/9, 4.34 FIP

Swapped from the Mariners to the Jays over the winter, Morrow has seen his development derailed by injuries, being shoved into the major league bullpen and indecision over his role: starter or closer, that is the question.

Toronto has spared us from any more rumination: Morrow, 25, will be a starter with his new organization. His ability to miss bats is unquestioned, but the former Cal star has to hone his control and prove durable (forearm and shoulder injuries have plagued him) if he hopes to become more than a hard-throwing curiosity.

Don’t be surprised if there are bumps along the way. Because Seattle’s former regime allowed Morrow to throw reallyrealyreally hard in the general direction of home plate out of the ‘pen, instead of building stamina and improving his breaking stuff as a minor league starter, the 6-3 righty remains green as grass.

Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks

CHONE: 94 IP, 8.33 K/9, 3.93 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9, 4.20 FIP

A USC Trojan who terrorized minor league batters (9.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9), Kennedy scuffled in limited time with the Yankees (5.84 xFIP in 59.2 IP) and was sent to Arizona as part of a three-team deal during the offseason. Kennedy’s ’09 season was quashed by surgery to repair an aneurysm under his right armpit.

A 6-0, 195 pound righty who relies far more on command than sizzling stuff, Kennedy sits 89-91 with his fastball and backs it up with a slider, curve and changeup. His Major League Equivalencies in 2007 (4.34 FIP) and 2008 (3.34 FIP) suggest that he could be a nifty back-end starter.

But, Kennedy faces a daunting task with the D-Backs. He’s a fly ball pitcher (career 39.7 GB% in the minors) headed to a park that, according to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, has increased run production by 15 percent and homers by seven percent compared to a neutral park over the past three years.

Sunday is the last scheduled day of the regular season and congratulations if you are still in contention for a money spot and can pick up a guy going in Game 162. Here are the pitchers going Sunday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Jeff Karstens (1%) – Has a road start in Cincinnati against Bailey. Had his longest outing since 6/5 when he went 5 IP, gave up 2 ER and picked up the win 9/30 versus the Cubs. However, he fanned only one. For the season Karstens has a 4.26 K/9 but has just 2 Ks in his last five outings, covering 10.2 IP.

Homer Bailey (49%) – Has a home start versus Karstens and the Pirates. In his last eight games he is 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 46 Ks in 52.1 IP. Bailey is 4-2 with a 4.52 ERA in the Great American Ball Park this year and is 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three games versus Pittsburgh.

Wilton Lopez (1%) – Has a road start in New York against Figueroa. In his first start of the season Lopez allowed 5 ER in 3.2 IP against the Phillies and saw his ERA rise to 9.42 for the season.

Nelson Figueroa (6%) – Has a home start versus Lopez and the Astros. Figueroa lost his fifth straight game in his last outing but deserved a better fate. as he allowed 2 ER in 6 IP and had 5 Ks. It was his second straight loss with a Quality Start. Figueroa is 1-4 with a 5.74 ERA this season in Citi Field. He has yet to face the Astros this season.

J.D. Martin (3%) – Has a road start in Atlanta against Hudson. In his last start, Martin allowed 3 ER in 6 IP but got a no-decision. He is 3-1 with a 4.62 ERA in his last seven starts. Martin is 4-2 with a 3.78 ERA in road games this season but he has yet to face the Braves in 2009.

Jeremy Guthrie (28%) – Has a home start versus Romero and the Blue Jays. Despite pitching a Quality Start (7 IP, 3 ER) in his last outing, Guthrie dropped his fourth straight decision. This year he is 5-8 with a 4.74 ERA at Camden Yards. Guthrie is 1-2 with a 4.09 ERA in three games against Toronto this season.

Tomo Ohka (0%) – Has a road start in Boston against Buchholz. Ohka pitches for the first time since 9/19 and makes his first start since 7/18. He is 0-1 with a 6.91 ERA in 28.2 road innings this year. Ohka has not pitched against the Red Sox in 2009.

Wade Davis (36%) – Has a home start versus Barnett and the Yankees. Davis picked up his second win of the season in his last outing, when he hurled 7 IP and gave up 1 ER versus the Orioles. He has a 1.83 ERA in 19.2 IP at Tropicana Field this year but Davis has yet to face New York.

Luke Hochevar (24%) – Has a road start in Minnesota against Pavano. In his last six games, Hochevar is 1-5 with an 8.47 ERA. He is 3-7 with a 7.53 ERA in road starts this year. However, in two starts versus the Twins, Hochevar is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA.

Jeff Suppan (9%) – Has a road start in St. Louis against Pineiro. In his last five starts, Suppan is 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA. He is 4-4 with a 4.20 ERA in road starts in 2009. Suppan is 1-2 with a 5.48 ERA in four games against the Cardinals this season.

Doug Davis (49%) – Has a road start in Chicago against Dempster. In his last eight games, Davis is 1-4 with a 6.20 ERA, with 24 BB and 8 HR in 45 IP. He is 3-7 with a 4.58 ERA in road games this year. Earlier this season, Davis pitched seven socreless innings against the Cubs, fanned seven and picked up the win.

Gio Gonzalez (28%) – Has a home start versus Saunders and the Angels. In his last nine starts, Gonzalez is 2-5 with a 5.94 ERA but with 54 Ks in 47 IP. He is 2-5 with a 6.75 ERA this season at McAfee Coliseum. Gonzalez 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA in two starts against the Angels.

Cesar Ramos (0%) – Has a home start versus Sanchez and the Giants. Made his first start in the majors 9/29 against the Dodgers and went 5 IP with 1 ER but got a no-decision. Ramos hit 94 with his fastball versus Los Angeles.

Vicente Padilla (32%) – Has a home start versus Marquis and the Rockies. Padilla returns to the rotation after making a relief appearance 9/30 versus the Padres. In seven games since joining the Dodgers, he is 3-0 with a 3.41 ERA with 28 Ks in 34.1 IP. Padilla has a 4.35 ERA in two games this year in Dodger Stadium and is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA this season against Colorado.

Here on Tuesday in the final week of the season most leagues have already passed their deadline for waivers. But for those of you in daily transaction leagues with moves still available and innings left to play with, there are no shortage of pitchers to consider. Here are the pitchers going Tuesday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Carlos Torres (2%) – Has road start in Cleveland against Masterson. Torres has pitched in six games for the White Sox and made four starts this year. Had a home start 8/8 versus the Indians and allowed 4 ER in 3.1 IP. His repertoire includes a fastball, cutter and curve. Torres offers some strikeouts possibilities with a 7.59 K/9 in the majors following a 9.14 mark this year in Triple-A.

Justin Masterson (34%) – Home against Torres and the White Sox. Has made nine starts for the Indians and allowed four or more earned runs in five of them. Masterson’s longest outing of the season is 6.1 innings. Has one appearance versus Chicago this season, his first start for Cleveland, in which he went four innings, gave up one run and fanned four on 8/8.

Anthony Lerew (0%) – Has road start in New York versus Burnett. Lerew was 10-6 with a 4.09 ERA in the Double-A Texas League this year with 101 Ks in 152 IP. In his only start in the majors, he gave up four runs (two earned) in 4.2 IP versus the Red Sox. Lerew had a 30.7 percent fly ball rate in the minors but gave up four ground balls and 11 fly balls in his start against Boston.

J.D. Martin (3%) – Has a home start against Pelfrey and the Mets. Is 1-1 versus New York this season, including a win on 9/18 when he gave up two runs and fanned three in 5.1 IP. Martin is 1-2 with a 5.68 ERA and a 1.611 WHIP in seven home games this season.

Wilton Lopez (0%) – Has a road start in Philadelphia against Happ. See Sunday’s two-start pitcher update for more on Lopez.

Brian Duensing (38%) – Has a road start versus Verlander in Detroit. Duensing has won five straight decisions since moving into the rotation, posting a 1.88 ERA in the seven-game stretch. He is 2-1 with a 4.11 ERA in 30.2 road innings this season. In three games (one start) against the Tigers, Duensing is 1-0 with a 0.61 ERA and has 8 Ks in 14.2 IP.

Jeremy Guthrie (27%) – Has a road start versus Davis and the Rays. Guthrie has lost three straight decisions and has a 6.38 ERA in that span. He is 5-8 with a 5.48 ERA in road games this year. Guthrie is 1-0 versus the Rays this season. He pitched six scoreless innings against Tampa in a home start on 4/11.

Wade Davis (35%) – Faces Guthrie and the Orioles at home. See Friday’s two-start pitcher article for more on Guthrie.

Homer Bailey (47%) – Has a home start versus Pineiro and the Cardinals. In his last seven starts, Bailey is 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA. He has a 1.288 WHIP and a 7.3 K/9 mark in home games this year. Bailey is 0-1 with a 4.99 ERA in two games against St. Louis this year.

Kevin Hart (3%) – Has a road start versus Dempster and the Cubs. Hart has picked up a loss in six straight games. He has a 7.31 ERA in that stretch, with 18 BB and 21 Ks in 32 IP. Hart started the year with Chicago and went to Pittsburgh in the Gorzellany/Grabow deal.

Chris Narveson (5%) – Has a road start in Colorado against Marquis. Narveson has appeared in 19 games for the Brewers and moved into the rotation three games ago. In his last outing he picked up the win, as he allowed one run in 5.2 IP and notched 10 Ks in a home game against the Cubs.

Cesar Ramos (0%) – Has a home start against Billingsley and the Dodgers. Ramos went a combined 6-7 with a 3.56 ERA among three stops in the minors this season. In three games in relief with the Padres, Ramos has 5 Ks in 5.1 IP. The lefty averages 91.8 with his fastball and also throws a slider, curve and change.

Trevor Cahill (39%) – Has a road game versus Hernandez and the Mariners. Cahill has won four straight decisions and in his last seven games he has a 2.43 ERA and a 1.131 WHIP. He is 3-5 with a 4.66 ERA in road games this season. Cahill is 0-2 with a 1.99 ERA in three games against Seattle this year.

Doug Davis (49%) – Has a road start against Sanchez and the Giants. Since the All-Star break, Davis is 4-4 with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.580 WHIP. He is 3-6 with a 4.39 ERA in road starts this season. Against the Giants, Davis is 2-2 with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.545 WHIP.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 23.

Homer Bailey – The overall numbers this year are underwhelming for Bailey but in his last three starts he is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 19 Ks in 21.1 IP. He is consistently in the mid-90s with his fastball and can dial it up to 98. The gopher ball is still a problem, he gave up two in his last start, and he does have a road start this week in Coors. Still, I like him this week as a two-start pitcher.

Garrett Mock – In the last 24 games of August, the Nationals were 8-16. In that same time span, Mock was 3-2 with a 3.14 ERA and 32 SO in 28.2 IP. Walks have been a problem for Mock, but his FIP is still nearly a run lower than his ERA. Get him into your lineup this week, even with a tough matchup against the Phillies.

Clayton Richard – Fantasy owners have really been hesitant to pick up Richard since his move to the NL, despite a 4-1 record with the Padres. He is 3-0 at home and gets one of his two starts this week at Petco. Since his road start is at San Francisco, I think he is a good two-start pitcher this week.

Ricky Romero – It has been a very successful rookie season for Romero, but the lefty has been hitting the wall lately. In his last six starts, Romero is 1-3 with a 6.32 ERA and a 1.851 WHIP. He catches a break by not going up against any AL East teams this week, still I think it is good to give him a break and not suffer two starts equal to what he has posted recently.

Andy Sonnanstine – One year after pitching in the World Series, it has been a disappointing season for Sonnanstine. He was unimpressive in the beginning of the season and was sent back to the minors. Sonnanstine posted a 4.40 ERA in nine games at Triple-A Durham and then made it back to Tampa Bay after the Kazmir deal. And his first start back was more of the same as he fell to 6-8. This week he has road starts at the New York and at Boston. Keep him on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 23 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, F. Hernandez, Carpenter, Vazquez, Jimenez, Beckett, Happ, Lilly, Marquis, Kazmir, E. Santana, Garza, Scherzer, Buehrle, P. Martinez, Buchholz, Porcello, Penny, Richmond, Correia, Duensing, Bannister, Nippert, Lehr, Davies, Bush, Moehler, VandenHurk, Redding, Manship, Misch, Paulino.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 21 and how they did.

Arroyo – Advised to start. 1.88 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.05 WHIP (2 starts)
Buchholz – Advised to start. W, 5.54 ERA, 12 Ks, 1.08 WHIP (2)
Millwood – Advised to sit. W, 5.40 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.71 WHIP (2)
Niemann – Advised to sit. W, 4.72 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.20 WHIP (2)
Rowland-Smith – Advised to start. 3.14 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.05 WHIP (2)

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Mike MacDougal (35%) – Released by the White Sox after five games and a 12.46 ERA, MacDougal has found new life with the Nationals and has ascended to the closer role. Ordinarily, this is not someone we would focus on, as he has a 4.48 FIP with Washington, compared to a 1.93 ERA, along with below-average K numbers. But with less than a month remaining in the season and the chance to pick up saves, he becomes an attractive add.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Homer Bailey (28%) – Coming off back-to-back starts in which he has allowed just one run in 15 innings, Bailey could still yet turn into the pitcher we have been waiting for the past few years. After averaging in the low 90s in his first two years in the majors, Bailey checks in this year at 94.5 and he was clocked at 98 in his August 23rd start.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Sean West (15%) – Has hurled a Quality Start in three of his last four outings, missing only in the second of back-to-back starts against the Astros. He tied a season high with 7 Ks in his last outing. West is 5-2 with a 3.26 ERA in nine home games this season.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Drew Stubbs (5%) – After starting the season 2-17, Stubbs has put up a .295-2-5-8-3 line in his last nine games. Stubbs is a “tools” guy, so he offers the chance for HR and SB for the final month of the season. His AVG may be his weakest tool, but that should not hurt fantasy teams too much this late in the season.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Milton Bradley (53%) – Yes, he has some baggage. But he is also a productive hitter when in the lineup, which should be all that matters as you chase a money spot in your league. In his last 35 games, Bradley has a .319-5-15-27-2 line. And unlike last year, Bradley is doing it in 2009 with sustainable numbers in a .319 BABIP and a 12.9% HR/FB rate.

All 30 teams are in action this evening as interleague play wraps up. How about some links?

MVN’s MLBOutsider takes a closer look at the Nationals’ Jordan Zimmermann, who has a 1.99 ERA and 22/6 K/BB ratio over his past four starts. He obviously doesn’t carry much win potential, but he’s been missing a lot of bats (8.9 K/9) without a great dip in control (2.6 BB/9). Mixed leaguers starving for strikeouts might as well give him a try. He is owned in just 13 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Alex Geshwind of FantasyBullpen.com lists his “second half starting pitching targets,” calling Francisco Liriano the “ultimate risk reward” and Randy Johnson a “decent buy low candidate.” Geshwind also takes note of Jorge De La Rosa’s 9.8 K/9 and 3.46 BABIP.

RotoRob’s “Daily Dump” is the Orioles’ Luke Scott, who is stuck in a 3-for-22 rut and has a .699 OPS in the month of June. He’s shown a good display of power this season (14 home runs in 184 at-bats) and has at times murdered left-handed pitching, but he’s not helping mixed leaguers.

Knox Bardeen of AOL Fanhouse advises us to stay away from the “Homer Train.” He, of course, is referring to the Reds’ Homer Bailey, who will be called on to start Saturday against the Indians. The 23-year-old is 4-0 with a 0.47 ERA and 38/7 K/BB ratio in his last five starts for Triple-A Louisville, but he’s had trouble parlaying any kind of success into the major leagues during the course of his career. There’s some hope that this time will be different, due in large part to a new split-finger fastball.

Brad Berreman of MVN’s MLBOutsider has a look at the Marlins’ bullpen situation. With Matt Lindstrom hitting the disabled list, the Fish have said they intend to use a closer-by-committee strategy. That doesn’t always last. Perhaps Leo Nunez or Dan Meyer will emerge as the club’s official ninth-inning hurler.

Rotoworld’s Mark St. Amant presents his “Risers” and “Fallers.” He even gives a little credit to David Ortiz, who is putting together a nice June after opening the season in a massive slump.

Have a link, question or comment? I’m all ears. Shoot me an e-mail or come join me on Twitter.

Remember “Homer Bailey, top pitching prospect”? It wasn’t that long ago that scouts were drooling over the lanky Texan, whose mid-90’s heat and hammer curve impressed Cincinnati brass enough to use the 7th overall pick in the 2004 amateur draft on him. Dubbing him the “undisputed class among the nation’s high school crop”, Baseball America extolled his virtues: Bailey possessed “the best fastball (92-96 mph), the best righthanded breaking ball (a hard downer curveball), the best command and the most polish among high schoolers in the draft.”

While that was certainly a heaping helping of praise, the La Grange native lived up to his flame-throwing billing in the earlier stages of his career. Bailey made his full-season debut in 2005, with Dayton of the Low-A Midwest League. Bailey spit fire in 103.2 frames for the Dragons, punching out 10.9 batters per nine innings. He was just as likely to burn himself as opponents, however, with 5.38 BB/9. Despite the strike-zone hiccups, BA named Bailey the 38th-best prospect in the minors (1st in the Cincy system) prior to the 2006 season.

Bailey began his ’06 campaign with Sarasota of the High-A Florida State League, tossing 70.2 innings for the club. The 6-4, 205 pounder continued to maul batters at the lower levels (10.06 K/9), but he also nearly halved his walk rate, issuing 2.8 free passes per nine innings. The sharper command led to a shiny 3.21 FIP. Pumping gas and showing better polish, Bailey was bumped up to the Southern League, where he pitched 68 innings for the Lookouts. Homer got lucky with homers (0.13 HR/9) and he walked more batters (3.71 BB/9), but his 10.19 K/9 served notice that the Texan could miss bats at the upper levels. BA really showed Bailey some love that offseason, as he was named the 5th-best prospect in the game.

With such lofty accolades, Bailey entered 2007 with Sistine Chapel-high expectations. He was sent to AAA Louisville, where some cracks began to appear in said chapel. His K rate was good, not great (7.89 K/9 in 67.1 IP), but he walked 4.28 per nine, suggesting that he needed some additional time to hone his craft in the minors. However, Bailey was summoned to Cincinnati in early June, where he struggled to keep his head above water. Bailey’s K/BB was an ugly 1-to-1, as he both whiffed and walked 5.56 hitters per nine innings in 45.1 frames of work. Utilizing a 92.4 MPH fastball (thrown 71.3% of the time) and that patented mid-70’s curve (14.7%), Bailey posted a 4.92 FIP. Despite the rocky introduction, few seemed worried about Homer’s long-term potential: he checked in as the 9th-best talent in the minors, per BA.

Returned to Louisville to kick off 2008, Bailey improved somewhat, though his performance fell under the level that one might expect from a top-of-the-line farm product. The 22 year-old posted rates of 7.76 K/9 and 3.72 BB/9, with a 3.96 FIP in 111.1 IP. He got his second shot with the Reds during the summer, but things continued to go awry in the show. In 36.1 innings, he didn’t fool many batters (4.46 K/9), nor was he stingy with the walks (4.21 B/9). His FIP was a Boeing-level 6.41, as Homer lived up to his name with 1.98 big flys per nine innings. His once-vaunted velocity was mundane (91.5 MPH) and mechanically-minded analysts were none too pleased with that they saw.

Bailey has barely managed 5 K’s per nine in his short major league career. Drawing conclusions off of 80-some innings is a terrible idea, but he has had issues putting hitters away in pitcher’s counts. Courtesy of the insanely useful Baseball-Reference, we find that Bailey has surrendered a .287/.359/.440 line with two strikes between 2007 and 2008. For comparison, the NL average in two-strike counts in ’08 was .185/.256/.284. While the average NL pitcher turned batters into Tony Pena Jr. with two strikes, Bailey allows them to imitate Mark DeRosa.

Heading into 2009, Bailey has very little shot of cracking the Reds’ starting rotation. That might be for the best, considering his tenuous mechanics and pitch sequencing suggest that he could use some extra seasoning. It would be silly to write off Bailey, but some of the shine is definitely off of his star.