Archive for Heath Bell

As much joy as the game of fantasy baseball brings to most of us, it can also bring an enormous amount of frustration and anxiety.  They say you shouldn’t keep that sort of stuff bottled up inside you, unless, of course, you enjoy the taste of bile and all the other stomach acids that a bleeding ulcer provides.  You need to get it out.  But what are you going to do, bitch to your girlfriend?  Try to gain sympathy from your fellow owners?  Doubtful.   Her level of care is reciprocal to your level of interest in her best friend’s latest relationship disaster and deep down, your fellow owners are wishing this kind of stuff on you. Read the rest of this entry »

Bobby Jenks is out for the rest of the year and the rumors have begun to fly. See ESPN, the Examiner, RotoWorld, MLBTradeRumors, and even Bob Nightengale chime in with their belief Jenks will get traded this offseason.

Entering his second year of arbitration, his steady save totals should augment his $5.6 million salary to the point where he may not be the best use of Kenny Williams’ resources. He was, for example, only worth $1.9 million this year.

His story is also not one of consistency. Generally speaking, he was lucky last year despite poor underlying stats, and this year he’s had the reverse happen. It might just be the story of small sample sizes in the end, but can a team like the White Sox afford a closer that costs more than $7 or $8 million?

Much was made in 2008 of the precipitous decline of Jenks’ strikeout rate. Surely he must be suffering from an arm injury, we all said. No one goes from striking out almost a batter per inning to 5.55 K/9 in one year without something being wrong, right? Especially with his fastball velocity down almost two MPH off its peak. Well, not so much. He got through the year with a sub-3 ERA, perhaps thanks to his career high 57% groundball percentage, and also thanks to a little luck (.261 BABIP).

Fast-forward to this year and the secondary stats all normalized to his career rates (8.27 K/9, 2.70 BB/9), and his fastball regained a mile per hour. Unfortunately, his luck turned too. While his BABIP (.298) stayed the same, his other batted ball statistics went south. The real ‘unlucky’ part of his game concerns home runs. Despite a reasonable fly ball percentage (33.1%), he’s giving up a home run and a half this year thanks to a distorted home run per fly ball rate (17%, 9.6% career).

So now the portly (6’3″ 275 lbs) closer is on the DL with a calf strain and the team will get to audition their possible replacement in Matt Thornton. What can we expect, and does Thornton have the stuff to be the closer in 2010?

Non-traditionalists will look at his numbers and give an unqualified thumbs up to Thornton’s candidacy. 330+ innings into his career, his strikeout rate is good overall (9.37 K/9) and excellent recently (over 10 K/9 the last two years). In his last 134 innings, his walk rate has been under 2.55 BB/9, which is also excellent. He’s actually had two straight identical seasons with great underlying numbers. Sure, his groundball rate took a step back this year, and his flyball rate went in the wrong direction, but can you really argue with two straight FIPs under 3?

He has the fastball of a closer (95+ MPH), a good slider (neutral by linear weights over his career), he gets people to reach (reach% over 25% for the last four years), and they don’t make great contact even when the ball’s in the zone (79.7%). What’s not to like?

Ah, there’s the rub. Thornton has blown 10 saves against two saves in the last two years and for some the thought is that he can’t handle the pressure. Are there actually great relievers that can’t be closers? This may need a more comprehensive look, but as anecdotal evidence I submit to you Heath Bell. Bell had 12 blown saves against his first two saves despite good underlying numbers that don’t even look as nice as Thornton’s do now. Sure, Bell may be slowing down a little recently, but he sort of blew through that blown saves problem this year, wouldn’t you say?

With veteran Trevor Hoffman possibly ending his 16-year relationship with the San Diego Padres, the familiar late-game tune of AC/DC’s “Hell’s Bells” may no longer blare through the speakers at Petco Park. However, another Bell might step into the all-time save leader’s role: Heath Bell (may I suggest Metallica’s “For Whom The Bell Tolls”?) The 31 year-old had to wait an awfully long time to get his shot in the majors, but he has done excellent work for the Fathers over the past two seasons.

Bell was originally selected by the Tampa Bay (then) Devil Rays in the 69th round of the 1997 draft. Suffice it to say, the 1583rd pick in the draft was not considered much of a prospect at the time. The hefty right-hander never signed on the dotted line with Tampa, and he went undrafted the following June. Bell was eventually scooped up by the New York Mets.

Despite his lack of scouting support, Bell often dominated in the minor leagues. In 468.1 frames, he whiffed 10.4 batters per nine innings, while issuing a solid 2.5 BB/9. Despite the more than 4-to-1 K/BB ratio, the 6-3, 240 pounder did not make his Queens debut until 2004, at the age of 26. In 24.1 innings for the Mets that season, Bell struck out 27 and surrendered 6 free passes.

The next two seasons, Bell would dominate the International League while shuttling back and forth between Norfolk and New York. His peripherals were excellent (78/24 K/BB in 83.2 combined innings with the Mets), but Bell was the recipient of some insanely poor luck on balls put in play: his BABIP was .374 in 2005 and an astronomical .394 in 2006. With every hitter turning into Ted Williams when the ball was put in play, Bell’s ERA was well over five during ’05 and ’06.

Apparently feeling that Bell was lousy as opposed to unlucky, the Mets shipped Heath (along with lefty Royce Ring) to the Padres for Jon Adkins and Ben Johnson following the 2006 season.

Finally liberated, Bell would post one of the better relief seasons in the game in 2007. Shouldering a very heavy workload (appearing in 81 games and tossing 93.2 innings), Bell posted a 2.50 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Using a mid-90’s heater and a low 80’s slider, Bell punched out 9.8 batters per nine innings and walked 2.88. Bell led all relievers in innings pitched and appeared in the 6th-most games. His 3.47 WPA ranked 6th among all relievers, sandwiched between Joakim Soria and newly-minted Met Francisco Rodriguez.

Bell’s 2008 season wasn’t as dominant, though he still turned in another quality campaign. With 8.19 K/9 and 3.23 BB/9, Bell posted a 3.34 FIP. His fastball usage increased from 64% to 72%, but the offering lost over a tick in terms of speed (down to 93.4 MPH). His Contact% increased from 75.4% in ’07 to 79.5% in ’08, suggesting that his stuff was down a bit compared to his crazy 2007 season.

After his frequent usage in 2007 and more heavy lifting during the first half of the ’08 season (46 G, 50.1 IP during the first half), Bell seemed to tire down the stretch. After posting a 42/13 K/BB ratio before the All-Star break, the Oceanside, California native struggled with his control late in the season (29/15 K/BB, 19 R in 27.2 IP during the second half). Bell’s heater peaked at 94.4 MPH during June, but he was down to 92.3 MPH by September.

Take a look at Bell’s pitch F/X data from 2007 compared to 2008:

2007

Fastball: -4.3 X, 9.36 Z
Slider: 5.34 X, -2.69 Z

2008

Fastball: -1.32 X, 9.44 Z
Slider: 4.22 X, -1.91 Z

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

In addition to a drop in speed, Bell’s fastball lost about 3 inches of horizontal movement, meaning the pitch was not tailing in on right-handers nearly as much. His slider also wasn’t quite as sharp, with less break away from righties and less “tilt” down in the zone. Perhaps it was just a blip on the radar or the product of inherently small samples when dealing with relievers, but Bell went from stifling righties in ’07 (.157/.216/.203) to giving up a good deal of extra base hits against them in 2008 (.254/.307/.435).

Bell may well be in line to take over for Hoffman in San Diego, and he has produced one otherworldly season followed by another impressive showing in 2008. However, there are some danger signs here: Bell has tossed a combined 171.2 innings over the past two seasons, as strenuous a workload as any reliever has faced. His strikeout rate took a pretty large dip, down about 1.6 per nine innings, and his fastball lost both speed and movement. Perhaps an offseason of rest will help abate some of these trends, but it seems possible that Bell’s work over the past two years will go down as the highlight of his career.

As is, Bell is still a pretty good reliever. Just don’t expect the 2007 version to come trotting out of that bullpen gate, no matter what tune he settles on as his ninth-inning ditty.