Archive for Gil Meche

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 11.

Kevin Correia – Coming off back-to-back wins, Correia gets two home starts in Petco this week. And he also squares off against Seattle and Oakland, two below-average run scoring teams, with Seattle being last in the AL with a 3.77 runs per game average. Correia is owned in only seven percent of CBS Sports leagues and could be a nice pickup for his two starts this week.

Gil Meche – Slowed part of the season by a sore back, Meche has turned in three straight solid outings, in which he has 20 strikeouts in 20 IP with a 1.35 ERA in that span. However, he is just 1-0 in those three games, indicative of the poor run support he has received in 2009. The Royals have scored two runs or fewer in six of his 13 starts this year. Make Meche active for his two home starts this week.

Wandy Rodriguez – After starting the season 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA, Rodriguez has allowed 19 runs in his last 20.2 IP. His ERA now stands at 2.82 and only six unearned runs in that stretch kept it from being even worse. His road ERA is 3.74, over 1.5 runs higher than his home mark, and he has starts this week at Texas and at Minnesota. Pull him from your lineup this week.

Tim Wakefield – He has a great record this year despite some uneven pitching. But he is coming off back-to-back Quality Starts and he has two home starts in Interleague matchups scheduled this week. Since 2006, Wakefield is 6-2 in Interleague play. Make sure he is active this week.

Barry Zito – After some tough luck earlier in the season, Zito has picked up two consecutive wins despite not pitching all that well. He has two home starts this week and Zito gets the nod to start due to his big home/road split in 2009. This year he has a 2.70 ERA with a 2.44 K/BB ratio at home compared to a 5.26 ERA and a 1.25 K/BB ratio in road games.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 11 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, F. Hernandez, Hamels, Wainwright, Zambrano, Jurrjens, Harang, Lackey, Kershaw, Liriano, Danks, Volstad, Pavano, Pelfrey, Braden, Wang, D. Davis, Bush, Niemann, Guthrie, De La Rosa, Martis, Morton, Mathis.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 9 and how they did.

Arroyo – Advised to start. 7 K, 4.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP (2 starts)
Blanton – Advised to start. W, 10 K, 2.77 ERA, 1.00 WHIP (2)
Burnett – Advised to sit. W, 8 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP (1)
Duke – Advised to sit. W, 0 K, 1.29 ERA, 1.29 WHIP (1)
Washburn – Advised to start. 9 K, 1.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP (2)

The earlier a fantasy owner can pull off a good trade the better, as the longer he will have the undervalued players on his roster. It is not uncommon for leagues to have owners with itchy trigger fingers, so it is never too soon to examine players to acquire or deal. While some owners are more likely to hold on to underperforming veterans, there are just as many who are looking to acquire the next big rookie. So here are five guys to pick up and five players to move.

Acquire

Jimmy Rollins – A notoriously streaky hitter, Rollins is hitting just .121 with no HR and no SB in seven games. He does not have to be 2007 MVP good to justify giving up something worthwhile to acquire him when his value may be down.

Chris Davis – Everyone’s favorite sleeper during mock draft season, Davis has a .154 average with one HR. He has hit in every stop along the way to the majors and is still the same guy who hit .285 in Texas last year. Davis will not have a 42 percent K rate all year.

Dustin Pedroia – He has just a .179 average thanks to a .160 BABIP. Three of his five hits have gone for extra bases and he has three walks compared to two strikeouts.

Gil Meche – An undervalued pitcher to begin with, Meche is winless in his first two starts. But 12 strikeouts in 14 IP with a 6:1 SO/BB ratio is indicative of how well he has pitched. And Meche’s two starts were in Chicago and versus the Yankees, so a 3.12 ERA is very good.

Dan Haren – After a 16-win season in 2008, Haren opened 2009 with an 0-2 mark. All of his other numbers are good so owners will likely be hesitant to give him up, but it may be possible to find someone who drafted him high based on other’s assessments of him who may be having doubts.

Dump

Emilio Bonifacio – Yeah, it is fun having him on your team only to say his name but his value will never be higher. And despite his current .714 SLG he is not going to hit for power and he will have to hit better than the .268 that his top pre-season projection had him going for to be a worthwhile fantasy player.

Kyle Lohse – A perfect 2-0 record with a 0.56 WHIP has been posted versus Houston and Pittsburgh, contenders for worst teams in baseball. Also, both of these games came at home, where Lohse was 8-2 with an ERA over a full run lower than it was on the road in 2008.

Adam Lind – The main problem with Lind is that he has no plate discipline. And even in this great hot streak to start the season, he has six strikeouts and one walk in 35 at-bats. Trade him while those 12 RBIs are among the league leaders.

Nyjer Morgan – No one doubts the SB potential but at the same time, no one doubts the complete lack of power, either. Morgan needs to get on base more and he still shows no propensity to take a walk. While he’s likely to post a high BABIP it simply will not be of the .444 variety where it currently stands.

Joe Saunders – Last year Saunders surprised everyone by posting 17 wins. But he had a FIP nearly a full run higher than his ERA, the fourth-worst mark in the majors. So far he has a win and a 2.63 ERA in two starts, but his FIP is more than two runs higher and his strikeout and walk numbers are still nothing to write home about.

Gil Meche has survived and thrived despite two rotator cuff surgeries. The 1996 first-round pick of the Seattle Mariners, Meche made his Major League debut as a 20-year old in 1999. However, he did not pitch in the majors in either 2001 or 2002 due to his injured shoulder and it took several years to re-emerge as something more than a fringe player.

In 2006, Meche added a slider to his repertoire. His O-Swing% jumped from 17.1 to 22.5 percent, his GB% went from 38.9 to 43.1 percent and his K/9 went from 5.21 to 7.52 percent. It was also the final year of his contract and he parlayed his success into a five-year, $55 million contract with the Royals, which was lampooned at the time by the mainstream media and most statheads.

But Meche has been extremely effective in his first two years with Kansas City. He has thrown 426.1 innings and posted a 3.91 ERA in that span. He made the All-Star team in 2007, notched 14 wins last year, and was one of the top pitchers in the league in the second half. In his final 14 starts, Meche was 8-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 90 innings. He had 11 QS in 14 outings and did this all with a .309 BABIP after the break.

There were two big reasons for Meche’s success last season. He notched the highest strikeout rate for any full season in the majors of his career, as he posted 7.83 K/9. Also, Meche allowed a home run on just 7.9 percent of his fly balls, which ranked 18th in the majors. He cut back on his curve and change to focus more on his fastball and slider. Meche used his slider 16.6 percent of the time last year, nearly as often as he threw his curve (17.8).

Meche was a lower-level number-three type fantasy starter in a standard 12-team mixed league last year. Barring some unforeseen improvement in his WHIP, that is probably his upside. But he is very reliable, having made 100 starts the past three seasons, he won’t kill you in any category and is a plus pitcher in strikeouts. Since many fantasy owners do not hold Meche in high regard (ADP in the 220s last year), he is someone who can provide great value in the high teens of your draft.