Archive for Gavin Floyd

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Five.

Brett Cecil – After getting the Rays and the Red Sox in his first two starts this year, Cecil gets a break from AL East opponents this week with road starts in Cleveland and Chicago, two teams with a combined 18-25 record. Cecil has allowed 2 HR in 12.2 IP but the Indians are 13th in the American League in HR. He will face a harder time on that score against the White Sox, but outside of HR, the Chicago offense has been terrible this year. Southpaws have limited the White Sox to a .216/.219/.381 line this season. Cecil is on the waiver wire in most leagues and could be a nice pickup for his two-start week.

Kevin Correia – After losing his first start of the year, Correia has run off four straight wins. But that has had as much to do with the level of offensive support he has received as it has had to do with his pitching. In his last two starts, Correia has 10.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 BB and 11 H allowed and 2 W. With matchups this week against Ubaldo Jimenez and Roy Oswalt, do not expect the Padres offense to supply him with a ton of runs. Put Correia on the bench this week.

Gavin Floyd – It has been a rough start to 2010 for Floyd, who finally broke into the win column in his last outing. The key was that he did not allow a single walk in 7 IP. Even after that outing, Floyd has a 4.10 BB/9. In the three previous years, Floyd’s highest BB/9 was 3.05. And even with the elevated walk rate, Floyd’s xFIP is 2.42 runs lower than his ERA. With home starts against two sub-.500 teams in the Royals and Blue Jays, Floyd is set up for a good week if he can continue to throw strikes.

Jaime Garcia – As Dave Cameron alluded to yesterday, Garcia has a pretty nice GB rate. Maybe the Cardinals can start removing Skip Schumaker and perhaps even David Freese when he takes the mound. But aside from that, right now Garcia is really outperforming his peripherals. His xFIP is 2.65 runs higher than his ERA. Garcia has yet to allow a run at home this season, but this week he has two road starts, including one against the Phillies and Cole Hamels. Give Garcia a week off if you have a safe alternative.

Max Scherzer – In three of his first four starts this season, Scherzer threw a Quality Start. In his other outing he missed because he only went five innings. In his last start, he got lit up by the Twins. But Scherzer gets a rematch versus Minnesota this week. My opinion is that whenever a pitcher faces a team in back-to-back outings, he usually has the opposite result in the second start. In his other game this week, he faces the weak-hitting Indians, a nice tonic for a pitcher who has allowed a HR in his last four starts. Ignore Scherzer’s poor outing his last time out and keep him active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Five are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Jimenez, Kershaw, Oswalt, Dempster, Shields, Lester, Hamels, Baker, E. Santana, Peavy, Pavano, Harden, Matusz, Braden, Garcia, L. Hernandez, Leake, Kennedy, Sanders, Talbot, A. Sanchez, Blanton, O. Perez, Vargas, Maholm, Kawkami, Guthrie, Meche, Wellemeyer, Narveson, Paulino, Mulvey.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Three pitchers and how they fared.

Bailey – Recommended to sit. 13 Ks, 7.15 ERA, 1.677 WHIP
Morrow – Recommended to sit. W, 16 Ks, 2.08 ERA, 1.077 WHIP
Myers – Recommended to start. W, 8 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 1.539 WHIP
Pelfrey – Recommended to start. 2 W, 9 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 1.333 WHIP
Slowey – Recommended to start – W, 11 Ks, 3.375 ERA, 1.200 WHIP

Let’s take a look at our third group of fifteen starters, the SP3 tier. Predictably, by the time you are looking at your third or fourth fantasy pitcher, the candidates begin to thin out and the valuations of the players vary wildly. Consider that this tier goes all the way from Matt Garza (119.67 ADP) down to Wade Davis (306.98). One is a pitcher on the rise with plenty of reasons to for a fantasy manager to get excited, and the other is a youngster just battling for a spot on the roster. Let’s focus on two pitchers that stretch the range and might provide good return on your investment.

Scott Baker (148.34 ADP) is currently a relatively cheap pitcher, going in about the twelfth round of a twelve-team mixed league. You can denigrate his lack of strikeouts (6.88 K/9 career), but there are plenty of other things to like about this young man. Take his walk rate (2.05 BB/9 career), for example. It’s been virtually identical over the past two years, even (2.19 in 2008, 2.16 in 2009), so he’s got that going for him. If you’re looking for flaws, he’s certainly a fly ball pitcher (33.7% GB, 45.4% FB career) and he’s had troubles with the home run (see last year’s 1.26 HR/9) that have inflated his ERA from time to time. Those that follow the Twins might have heard this record before (see: Kevin Slowey).

It’s a little worrisome that he’s moving to a new park, but at least one person thinks will play as a pitcher’s park (AL Petco!). Either way, if the park plays at all similarly to the Mall of America Field, which played between a 1.11 and .896 park factor for home runs over the past three years, he should actually be in for some regression in the home run department. That regression could even get him back to his excellent 2008 levels. (A note: all but nine parks played within that range last year, so it’s likely that Target Field will, too. Also, climate and altitude, not explicitly covered in the above study, are a big part of how a park plays. Those should be similar in the new park.) He still limits walks, he still has a good fastball/slider combo, and he’s still getting batters to reach on 30+% of his pitches outside the zone. The possibility of a high-threes ERA and low 1.2s WHIP is worth a 12th round pick.

It’s not often that a pitcher improves his underlying statistics and loses ground in his more visible numbers, but Gavin Floyd (185.06) pulled off that feat from 2008 to 2009. Here is the full list of component statistics that Floyd improved: strikeout rate, walk rate, home runs per nine, ground ball rate, fly ball rate, O-Swing rate, and contact rate. You got that? And yet somehow, his ERA went up to 4.06 from 3.84 – mostly because his BABIP normalized (from .268 in 2008 to .292 last year). Since his ‘luck’ stats were about where they should have been last year, most of the projection systems say that Floyd will repeat his year, perhaps with a little ERA inflation due to the difference between last year’s nice home run rate (.98 HR/9) and his career number in that category (1.37).

Here’s one thing, though: Floyd has not yet figured out the optimal mix of his pitches. His fastball is not a great pitch (-46.3 runs for his career), and so he’s using it less (47.8% last year, down from 66.7% in 2006). For the last three years, the pitch has begun to find a niche around the scratch level (-4.9 runs last year), and his other pitches have zoomed forward in productivity as he has relied on them. His slider (+7.5 runs) and curveball (+14.1 runs) both hit career highs last year. Even though Floyd threw his fastball ninth-least in the majors last year, he could throw it less (!) since he once threw his curveball regularly over 20% of the time before settling in around 18%. The point isn’t to say that Floyd will throw the fastball less and the curveball more and succeed – the point is that he’s a pitcher available in the fifteenth round that has a floor around the low fours in ERA, should put up a WHIP lower than 1.3, and is not finished figuring out the optimal mix of his pitches. There’s value there, no?

On the surface, Chicago White Sox righty Gavin Floyd appeared to take a step back in 2009. After all, his ERA rose from 3.84 in 2008 to 4.06 this past year, with his win total dipping from 17 to 11 in the process.

Recently, ESPN fantasy analyst Tristan Cockcroft came out with a preliminary top 200 list for the 2010 season. Floyd checked in at number 200. He ranked below starters such as Derek Lowe, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Ervin Santana.

Santana (elbow, triceps) and Matsuzaka (shoulder) lost big chunks of the ’09 season with injury problems. Lowe, meanwhile, pulled off an undesirable trifecta by missing fewer bats, walking more hitters and getting fewer ground balls than usual.

But Floyd? He’s coming off of his best season in the majors, win total and higher ERA aside.

This time last year, I examined Floyd’s 2008 season and came to a rather harsh conclusion:

Floyd’s prospect pedigree, superficial improvement in ERA and big win total might trick some people into believing that he has taken major strides toward becoming an ace-level starter. However, there just isn’t any evidence to suggest that’s really the case. Floyd is worth selecting in the later portion of most drafts, but don’t be the guy that takes him really high and then spends the season wondering why his ERA went up by a run.

Today, I can say that I was wrong about Floyd. And now, I fear that other analysts may be making a similar mistake in underestimating the former Phillies prospect.

In 2008, Floyd struck out 6.32 batters per nine innings. In ’09, his K rate climbed to 7.6 per nine frames. The increase appears to be supported by a drop in contact rate. Opposing batters made contact when swinging at Floyd’s pitches 81.7% of the time in ’08, but just 77.8% in ’09 (80-81% MLB average).

Also, his rate of swinging strikes spiked from 8.4% in ’08 to 9.9% this past year (7.8% average for starting pitchers). Floyd ranked 17th among starters in contact rate and 21st in swinging strike rate.

The soon-to-be 27 year-old also lowered his walk rate a bit, from 3.05 BB/9 in 2008 to 2.75 BB/9 in 2009. Floyd kept the ball on the ground more than in years past, with a 44.3 GB% (41.2% in ’08).

That’s not a massive increase, but it makes a difference. His home run/fly ball rate didn’t change all that much between 2008 (11.8%) and 2009 (11.2%), but his HR/9 figure fell from 1.31 to 0.98. Considering U.S. Cellular Field’s homer-happy tendencies (1.26 HR park factor from 2007-2009), getting a few more grounders can’t hurt.

For most of his major league career, Floyd struggled to retire lefty batters. In 2009, that wasn’t the case. Baseball-Reference keeps track of a stat called sOPS+, which compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average. An sOPS+ of 100 is league average. A score below 100 for a pitcher means that he was better than the league average, while a score above 100 means he did worse than average. Here are Floyd’s sOPS+ figures vs. lefties since 2006:

2006: 155
2007: 132
2008: 111
2009: 74

While one year of platoon data shouldn’t be taken as definitive proof that Floyd has conquered southpaw batters, there’s other evidence to suggest the improvement is legitimate.

Floyd has shifted his pitch selection in recent years, progressively tossing fewer low-90’s fastballs in favor of more mid-80’s sliders and cutters:

Floyd’s fastball, slider and cutter percentage, by year:

2007: 62.1 fastball (FA) percentage, 7.6 slider (SL) percentage, 6.7 cutter (FC) percentage
2008: 54.9 FA%, 9.2 SL%, 9.4 FC%
2009: 41.5 FA%, 16.3 SL%, 12.7 FC%

Floyd’s fastball has been scorched for a career run value of -0.92 per 100 pitches, making his decision to throw fewer heaters a wise one. His slider and cutter are lumped together on his Pitch Type Values section. Floyd’s Pitch F/X graphs (like this one from a 9/16 start vs. Seattle) show that they’re two distinct pitches, though:

The run value of his slider and cutter combined is +0.58 during the course of his big league career.

With more whiffs, fewer walks and the patented “Cooper Cutter” in his arsenal, Floyd was one of the better starters in the A.L. in 2009. Floyd’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA dropped from 4.61 in ’08 to 3.82 this past season. That placed 8th among A.L. starters.

Gavin Floyd might not be an elite starter, but he’s pretty darned good. Don’t let the win total fool you: Floyd was better than ever in 2009.

Stock Up

Gavin Floyd, White Sox

This past winter, I took a rather skeptical stance regarding Floyd’s “breakout” in 2008:

Unfortunately, there are a number of reasons to think that Floyd’s 2008 campaign was more the product of good fortune than great pitching. Floyd’s ERA was a shiny 3.84, but he surrendered 19 unearned runs- pitchers bear some responsibility for those tallies as well. His strikeout rate was pretty ordinary, as he punched out 6.32 batters per nine innings, while serving out 3.05 free passes per nine. With a 2.07 K/BB ratio that was actually below the 2.12 AL average, Floyd’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) was a mundane 4.77. The 0.93 run difference between his ERA and FIP was the fifth-largest among all starters. Floyd’s .268 BABIP is going to rise, and with it, so will his ERA.

Floyd’s ERA in 2009 (3.84) is an exact match for his 2008 work. However, there’s every reason to believe that it is legitimate this time around. In 185 IP, Gavin has whiffed 7.78 batters per nine innings, with 2.72 BB/9. His ’09 Fielding Independent ERA (3.77) is a full run lower than in 2008.

The 26 year-old righty’s fastball has never been an especially effective pitch (-0.91 runs/100 pitches during his career), and he seems to have adapted by throwing fewer and fewer heaters as the years go by. Floyd chucked a fastball 61 percent of the time in 2007, 54.7% in ’08 and just 48% in 2009.

In its place, the former Phillies prospect is relying more upon a cut fastball and a slider (the pitch data on Floyd’s page lumps them together, but his Pitch F/X data shows them as two distinct offerings). Couple that nasty pitch with a typically strong 80 MPH curveball (+2.75 runs/100) and a nice changeup (+1.15), and you have an awfully strong 2009 campaign. Normally susceptible to lefties (.279/.360/.518 from 2006-2008), Floyd and his new pitching strategy have subdued southpaws for a .227/.289/.378 line in 2009.

Pedro Martinez, Phillies

Pedro’s incredible career reached its nadir in Queens last season. He appeared to be breaking down physically, though his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate) of 4.61 was a full run lower than his 5.61 ERA. He looked as though he could be moderately useful at the back of someone’s rotation, but that was under the assumption that his shoulder or some other body part wouldn’t spontaneously combust.

After sitting out the first half of the 2009 campaign, Martinez inked a deal with the Phillies in July. Following a few minor league tune-ups, Pedro is giving big league hitters fits. During his first 23 frames, the wily 37 year-old Dominican Republic native has posted a 23/3 K/BB ratio.

It remains to be seen whether or not he can maintain the increase, but Martinez’s fastball velocity (88.6 MPH) is his highest since his last year with the Red Sox in 2004. Pedro’s pounding the strike zone (56 Zone%, 49% MLB avg.), getting ahead of batters (65.6 first-pitch strike%, 59% MLB avg.), and he’s getting outside swings when he lays one off the plate or in the dirt (29.9 O-Swing%, 25% MLB avg). Is there a more enjoyable pitcher to watch than Pedro? I think not.

Seth Smith, Rockies

Coors or no, Smith’s slugging exploits in 2009 (.317/.406/.572, 15 HR and a .419 wOBA in 315 PA) are impressive. The University of Mississippi product mashed in the minors and performed decently with the Rockies in 2008 (.349 wOBA in 123 PA), but it would have been difficult for anyone to see this coming. With +20.2 Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive value), Smith trails only Todd Helton among Colorado batters.

While no one should expect Smith to keep on eviscerating the ball like Pujols, he combines a very keen batting eye (13.1% walk rate, 20.2 O-Swing%) with plenty of pop. Smith’s rest-of-season projection pegs him for a .297/.366/.484 line. Even if that’s “all” he delivers, that’s very useful. Of course, finding consistent playing time in Colorado’s crowded outfield could be problematic. But if he keeps on lacing everything he sees into the gap or over the fence, he’ll find enough AB’s. Smith isn’t this good. But as a patient lefty batter with a quality minor league track record and little fanfare, he reminds me of a poor man’s Brian Giles.

Tim Hudson, Braves

Pedro isn’t the only prominent name returning to the hill as the 2009 season wraps up. Hudson underwent Tommy John surgery last August, but he has looked rather sharp in his first two starts this season. The mended 34 year-old has posted an 11/4 K/BB ratio, allowing 3 runs in 12.1 IP. Huddy’s still got his deep mix of pitches: the sinker, cutter, curve and splitter are all present.

Will Atlanta pick up Hudson’s $12M option for 2010? There’s a $1M buyout, so the Braves have to decide if they think he’s worth $11M. For Hudson to be “worth” the dough, he would have to post about 2.4 Wins Above Replacement ($11M, divided by the $4.5M per WAR that teams pay on the free agent market). It’s possible if he’s healthy, though Atlanta’s other financial commitments in the rotation (as Erik Manning notes in the linked post, Lowe is due $15M, Vazquez $11.5M and Kawakami roughly $7M) could play a part in the decision-making process.

Jake Fox, Cubs

With Alfonso Soriano’s knee injury possibly requiring arthroscopic surgery, Fox figures to keep getting penciled into the lineup.

Fox, of course, went Coo-Coo for Cocoa Puffs in the International League, and he has batted .282/.328/.520 in 198 big league PA for the Cubs. Fox obviously possesses scores of power (career .235 ISO in the minors), but he’s also a hacker of the highest degree (5.9 BB%, 37.1 O-Swing%). The 6-0, 210 pound Fox might take a page out of the Adam Dunn playbook defensively, but he could be useful to power-starved owners looking for an offensive jolt.

Stock Down

Geovany Soto, Cubs

Soto pieced together a superb rookie season in 2008 (.371 wOBA), but his 2009 campaign has been defined by shoulder and oblique injuries, as well an anemic offensive showing (.310 wOBA). The 26 year-old Soto is in Lou Pinella’s dog house, with Koyie Hill stealing more AB’s.

Despite the rapid downturn in his numbers, there are reasons to believe that Soto circa 2008 and this year’s version are largely the same. His walk rate his up (11.2 BB% to 13.4%), his K rate is down (24.5% to 23.2%), he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone (20.1% in ’08, 18.1% in ’09), and his contact rate has increased (74.7% to 77.6%). Soto’s ISO is down (.219 to .162), but it wasn’t reasonable to expect a .200+ ISO from him again, and a .162 ISO is still excellent for a backstop. Geo still has the skills to be a big asset, if the Cubs are willing to play him.

Ian Snell, Mariners

Huh? Snell has won four straight starts for the Mariners. Surely he’s pitching like a stud, right? Well, not really. During that winning streak, the banished Bucco has only surrendered 7 runs in 21.2 frames. But he has done so despite actually walking more batters (11) than he struck out (10). Snell looked to be a long-terms asset for Pittsburgh following a 2007 season in which he posted rates of 7.66 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9, with a 4.01 FIP in 208 IP. The former 26th-round pick out of Delaware inked a three-year, $8.6M extension with the team in March of 2008, with club options for the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

Since then, however, Snell has been on a downward slope. He kept the K’s but lost the strike zone in 2008 (7.39 K/9, 4.87 BB/9), and his peripherals are looking Daniel Cabrera-esque in 2009 (5.52 K/9, 5.21 BB/9). Sensing Snell’s wildness, opposing batters have gradually swung at fewer pitches out of the strike zone (from 28.2% in ’07 to 21% in ’09; 25% MLB average). Consequently, his first-pitch strike percentage has plummeted from 63.7% during his banner 2007 to 52.1% in 2009 (59% MLB average). That’s the lowest rate among all starters tossing at least 100 innings.

Kevin Millwood, Rangers

Despite holding an ERA (3.77) that’s 1.3 runs lower than his 2008 mark (5.07), Millwood is not really pitching any better. In fact, one could make the case that his 2008 season was actually stronger.

Millwood’s K/BB ratio was 2.55 in ’08, but it’s just 1.62 in ’09. His FIP in 2008 was 4.02, yet it’s 4.89 this season. The difference? A massive change in BABIP, from .366 in ’08 to .279 in ’09. Texas’ dramatic improvement with the leather has surely played a part (28th in team UZR in 2008, 6th in 2009), but Millwood has also been pretty darned fortunate. Millwood’s tight rope act appears to be running thread-bare, however. Since the All-Star break, he has given up 22 runs in 42 frames, with a mediocre 1.24 K/BB.

Grady Sizemore, Indians

Sizemore’s 2009 season is over, as Cleveland’s cornerstone player undergoes a pair of surgeries to fix a balky elbow and an “instability of the abdominal wall.” Sizemore has turned in an ’09 campaign that most would characterize as disappointing (.343 wOBA, .248/.343/.445 line in 503 PA), but his core skills are still very much intact.

Grady walked 12.1% of the time, punching out 21.1% and posting a near-.200 ISO (.197). According to this Expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, Sizemore was pretty unlucky this year. His BABIP was just .276, yet his XBABIP (which uses HR, SB, groundballs, fly balls and pop ups in addition to line drive rate) was .309.

Even if we assume that all of Grady’s extra hits would be singles, his line “should” be closer to .281/.376/.478. That’s a typical Sizemore season (his career line is .275/.367/.485). About the only facet of Grady’s game that was truly off was his base stealing (13 SB, 8 CS). Don’t be scared off by his “down” 2009 season. Sizemore is still the same championship-caliber player he has always been, and he could be quite the bargain on draft day next year.

Josh Hamilton, Rangers

Hamilton’s first season in Texas was excellent (.385 wOBA), but 2009 has been marred by injuries and an impatient approach at the dish. Battling rib, groin, abdominal and back maladies, Hamilton has batted just .270/.318/.426 in 355 PA, with a .322 wOBA. Adjusting for his home ballpark, the 28 year-old has been below-average with the stick (-3.5 Batting Runs).

Hamilton’s walk rate has dipped from 9.3% in 2008 to 6.9% in ’09, with a 35.7 O-Swing%. He’s still crushing fastballs (+1.48 runs/100 pitches seen), but breaking stuff (-1.14 for the slider, -2.12 for the curve) and changeups (-2.53) are giving Hamilton nightmares. Perhaps noting Hamilton’s tendency to expand his zone, opposing pitchers have placed just 43.3% of their pitches within the zone against him (49% MLB avg). Josh is currently sidelined with a pinched nerve in his back.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Jermaine Dye and trade Johnny Cueto last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

John Maine – Current owners may look at his .252 BABIP and 4.41 FIP and see a sell candidate. But Maine was terrible the first three games of the season and has quietly been a very effective pitcher since then. In his last seven games, Maine is 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA. Linear Weights shows his fastball, which was such a good pitch in both 2006 and 2007, has rebounded into positive numbers despite a slight decrease in velocity.

Jorge Cantu – After a hot start to the season, Cantu really struggled in May and now his updated ZiPS shows him falling fall short of last year’s HR and R totals. A hand injury that he refused to come out of the lineup for hurt his numbers, especially early in the month. But Cantu has hit a solid .286 over his last 14 games and he could be a great pickup if his power numbers rebound as the hand improves.

Jhonny Peralta – Here is another player whose numbers have been dragged down due to injury. After a strong first two weeks of the season, Peralta injured his left elbow. The injury sapped his power and helped his average fall below .200 in early May. But in his last 21 games, Peralta is batting .347, albeit still with no power. The most attractive thing about Peralta as a fantasy player is his 20-HR power. RoS ZiPS sees Peralta hitting 11 HR the rest of the season.

Gavin Floyd – A 17-game winner a year ago, Floyd was overvalued by many coming into the season. But it seems that he has reached the point now where he is an undervalued commodity. Floyd’s strikeout rate is up over 1.5 per nine from a year ago and his FIP is actually lower now than it was in 2008 (4.14 opposed to 4.77). But he is being hurt by baserunners, as his BB rate is up and his BABIP sits at .335 compared to a .296 lifetime mark. But in his last three outings, Floyd has allowed just seven walks in 23 IP. Improved control along with a little better luck on balls in play could add up to a big improvement in Floyd’s numbers.

Nolan Reimold – The Baltimore rookie has provided some nice power, with five home runs in his first 17 games. While that pace may not be sustainable, the power is not a huge surprise, as Reimold hit 25 HR last year in Double-A. Reimold has made good contact since returning from a strained oblique in 2007. He will not hurt you in average and could be a cheap source of power as he is owned in only 5.1 percent of ESPN leagues.

Trade

Nate McLouth – An All-Star in 2008, McLouth came into the season with an ADP of 59 as owners anticipated another 25-25 season and hoped for 30-30. So far, McLouth has been hitting for power but he has been disappointing in the other categories. He looks like a nice acquisition target, as his BABIP is a dismal .254 so far. But his updated ZiPS shows him hitting just .256 with 22 HR and 20 SB. McLouth’s first half of 2008, when he had 19 HR and a .542 SLG, is looking like a career outlier. His SLG was .459 in 2007, .426 in the second half of 2008 and is .451 this season.

Kevin Millwood – He is in the top 10 in the American League with a 3.23 ERA but that comes along with a 5.05 FIP. His .256 BABIP is 50 points below his career average and his 83.9 percent strand rate is unlikely to last. Adding to the worries is his K/9, which sits at 4.96, down from 6.67 last year and his career average of 7.09.

Raul Ibanez – An extremely reliable fantasy performer the past seven seasons, Ibanez is off to a fantastic start. CBS Sports lists him as the fifth-best fantasy player so far while RotoTimes has him at number four. If you can sell high, now would be the time. Ibanez is just not this good and he has absolutely feasted on the pitching of the last-place Nationals. Due to a quirk of the schedule, Ibanez and the Phillies have played 12 games versus Washington and no more than six against anyone else. In those 12 games versus the Nationals and their MLB-worst 6.16 R/G staff, Ibanez is hitting .440 with 6 HR, 18 RBI and 15 R. His play against Washington has raised his AVG alone 23 points. Ibanez won’t see that pitching staff again until September 8th.

Doug Davis – He has only posted two wins but has been a strong contributor in the other three SP categories. But a 4.78 FIP suggests Davis has been more than a little lucky with his 3.65 ERA. After posting a 2.91 ERA and a 1.176 WHIP in April, Davis had a 4.37 ERA and a 1.371 WHIP in May.

Mark DeRosa – The Indians are allegedly shopping DeRosa and so should you. Since he qualifies at three positions, DeRosa can still be a useful fantasy player and should have trade value. The updated ZiPS shows him with numbers that come close to his 2008 ones, but that seems overly optimistic. DeRosa did so much of his damage during his career year last year at Wrigley Field, where he batted .316/.404/.514. His road numbers last year of .254/.347/.448 look remarkably like what he has posted so far in 2009.

With spring training in full swing and most drafts set to begin, now seems like the perfect time to recap which starting pitchers might see a dip or rebound in their respective performances. Here’s a quick look at the five hurlers with the largest discord between their Earned Run Average and Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Let’s start with those who were a little too fortunate in 2008.

1.) Armando Galarraga, Tigers
3.59 ERA, 4.81 FIP

Acquired before the ’08 season from the Rangers for a nondescript minor league outfielder, Galarraga turned in the best starting line for a disappointing Tigers rotation. However, his peripherals (6.35 K/9, 2.97 BB/9) suggest that he’s more likely to post an ERA north of four and a half if he retains similar rates next season. Galarraga’s .250 BABIP (third-lowest among all starters) is sure to rise.

2.) Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
2.90 ERA, 4.03 FIP

Matsuzaka was the subject of one of the first articles on Rotographs, where I pointed out several trends that portend to a less shiny ERA in 2009. Dice-K missed bats (8.27 K/9), but he was the beneficiary of a .267 BABIP, a high strand rate (80.6 LOB%) and a low HR/FB rate (6.1%). Add in a maddening tendency to dish out free passes (5.05 BB/9), and Matsuzaka’s year begins to lose some of its luster.

3.) Johan Santana, Mets
2.53 ERA, 3.51 FIP

We’re obviously speaking in relative terms here: Santana’s FIP ranked 16th among all starters, as he whiffed 7.91 batters per nine innings with 2.42 BB/9. The soon-to-be 30 year-old is still one of the prime starters in the NL, if not quite the cyborg that tore through the AL earlier in the decade. With a lower strand rate (his 82.6% mark was the highest among all starters), Santana’s ERA will likely revert to great as opposed to otherworldly.

4.) Joe Saunders, Angels
3.41 ERA, 4.36 FIP

A former first-rounder out of Virginia Tech, Saunders looks like he should fool batters. The 6-3 southpaw has fair velocity on his fastball (91 MPH) and complements the heater with a changeup, curveball and occasional slider. While Saunders possesses solid control (2.41 BB/9), his K rate (4.68 per nine) and low BABIP (.267) suggest that he’s more Average Joe than fledging ace.

5.) Gavin Floyd, White Sox
3.84 ERA, 4.77 FIP

The perennial prospect finally turned in a full season in a major league rotation, tossing 206.1 frames for the White Sox. The former Phillies farm hand did perform better in the second half of the year (6.65 K/9, 2.18 BB/9 after the all-star break, 6.04 K/9 and 3.79 BB/9 prior), but Floyd had auspicious luck on balls put in play (.268 BABIP) and southpaws continued to rake against him (.259/.340/.485).

Great things were expected of Gavin Floyd when the Philadelphia Phillies popped him with the fourth overall selection in the 2001 amateur draft. A strapping 6-5, 230 pounder, Floyd showcased mid-90’s heat while dominating the competition at Mount Saint Joseph High in Baltimore.

Floyd performed fairly well as he moved up the organizational ladder, punching out about seven batters per nine innings and issuing around 3 BB/9. However, he failed to impress in three different trials with the Phillies from 2004 to 2006. In 108.2 combined innings, Floyd allowed 90 runs and 20 home runs, and he appeared to be stagnating at AAA as well. He posted a grisly 6.36 RA at Scranton during that three-year period, with 7.1 K/9 and 4 BB/9.

The Phillies jumped at the opportunity to convert the club’s disappointing prospect into a proven and productive commodity, shipping Floyd and southpaw Gio Gonzalez to the Chicago White Sox for right-hander Freddy Garcia in December of 2006.

Neither team got much of a major-league return on the trade in 2007, as Garcia’s shoulder gave out and Floyd posted a 5.27 ERA in 70 innings for the White Sox, serving up an incredible 17 long balls. However, 2008 brought much improved results for the Sox and Floyd, as the big righty tossed 206.1 frames, posting a 3.84 ERA and 17 wins. So, has the soon-to-be 26 year-old finally broken out, making good on those lofty expectations that led to a $4.2 million bonus from the Fightin’ Phils back in ’01?

Unfortunately, there are a number of reasons to think that Floyd’s 2008 campaign was more the product of good fortune than great pitching. Floyd’s ERA was a shiny 3.84, but he surrendered 19 unearned runs- pitchers bear some responsibility for those tallies as well. His strikeout rate was pretty ordinary, as he punched out 6.32 batters per nine innings, while serving out 3.05 free passes per nine. With a 2.07 K/BB ratio that was actually below the 2.12 AL average, Floyd’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) was a mundane 4.77. The 0.93 run difference between his ERA and FIP was the fifth-largest among all starters. Floyd’s .268 BABIP is going to rise, and with it, so will his ERA.

While Floyd’s 91 MPH heater, mid-80’s slider, high-70’s curve and low-80’s change worked pretty well against right-handed batters (.226/.279/.380), he continued to surrendered hits aplenty to southpaws (.259/.340/.485). In his major league career, Gavin has been pummeled by lefties to the tune of a .280/.364/.515 line. Floyd’s diverse repertoire (a five-pitch mix when you include his four-seam fastball and sinker) gives him plenty of weapons to go after righties, with a couple of different breaking balls at his disposal. However, those breakers don’t work near as well moving down and in to lefties, and Floyd has always been reticent to throw his changeup (6 percent of the time during his career).

In addition to his issues with left-handers, there’s also the matter of Floyd being a flyball pitcher (41.2 GB% in ’08) in a park that harshly penalizes such tendencies. According to the 2009 Bill James Handbook, U.S. Cellular Field has increased HR production by 28 percent over the past three seasons. Even with a league average HR/FB rate last season (11.8%), Floyd coughed up 30 long balls, or 1.31 per nine innings. Flyball pitcher + The Cell = fireworks.

Floyd’s prospect pedigree, superficial improvement in ERA and big win total might trick some people into believing that he has taken major strides toward becoming an ace-level starter. However, there just isn’t any evidence to suggest that’s really the case. Floyd is worth selecting in the later portion of most drafts, but don’t be the guy that takes him really high and then spends the season wondering why his ERA went up by a run.