Archive for Francisco Cervelli

The Yankee lineup is a bit of a mess. And that’s being nice. With Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson and Alex Rodriguez all ailing, guys like Juan Rivera and Brennan Boesch will start the season in a lineup that is usually one of the most formidable in the league. With Travis Hafner and Chris Stewart also figuring to see regular at-bats, this lineup is anything but formidable.

But this post is just about the infield, not the whole lineup.

Let’s start with the Teixeira injury. Teixeira was originally reported to be out with a strained wrist injury until sometime between the first and middle of May. But it now appears that Teixeira has a partially torn tendon sheath. This is the same injury Jose Bautista had last year that ended his season early. Teixeira’s injury is supposedly a bit different in that the tendon under the sheath is stable whereas Bautista had an unstable tendon, which is the reason Bautista’s injury required season-ending surgery.

If we could be sure Teixeira would be back sometime in May, he might still be worth drafting as your corner infielder. But with so much uncertainty about the timeline after this latest development concerning his injury, there’s probably too much risk to take on. However, if you play in a league with more than one DL slot, he might be worth stashing if he falls to the last couple rounds of your draft.

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During this offseason, the Yankees’ catcher “battle” will be one of the more prominent positional competitions to keep an eye on. Barring a free agent addition, which seems unlikely, the Yankees will go into 2011 with three distinctly different catchers, all of whom could have some value to your team. Here they are, in no particular order.

Jorge Posada
The switch-hitter has been around for a long time, but you already knew that (I hope). While his batting average was poor this year, he was still a top-10 fantasy catcher thanks to his 18 homers. By the time next season ends, Posada will be 40-years old, so will he be able to squat behind the plate more than a couple times a week? I’m doubting it, and the Yankees probably are, as well.

Francisco Cervelli
The Yankees used Cervelli to spell Posada this year, and he racked up over 300 trips to the plate in the process. He does a good job of making contact and drawing walks, but a slugging percentage below .340 really limits the damage he can do to an opposing team. He’s a safe option, and the Yanks are going to keep him around because of it.

Jesus Montero
Montero will always be involved in one of the great “what if” questions for both the Yankees and Mariners after he was almost dealt for Cliff Lee this summer. He has great power for someone who iis still really young, but still has a lot to learn about the defensive side of his position.

In all likelyhood, the Yanks are going to have Posada DH a couple of days a week, in the hopes of keeping up his offensive production. Cervelli will get the playing time behind the plate for the first month or two, as the Yanks try to fine tune Montero’s defense while limiting his service time.

All three of these guys could have some sort of fantasy value, but it could turn out that all three are somewhat worthless depending on how playing time is distributed. While the catchers’ position is the main one to watch, keep an eye out to see if the Yankees bring in a full-time DH for next season. I’d expect New York to keep the DH role fairly open, rotating Posada or Montero through for the majority of the season.

The Yankees and fantasy owners will be without the services of Jorge Posada for at least 3-4 weeks, as the switch-hitting backstop has a hairline fracture in his right foot. Posada suffered the injury on a Michael Cuddyer foul tip this past Sunday.

The 38-year-old was off to a scorching .326/.406/.618 start in 2010, with a .441 wOBA. Sans Posada, New York won’t turn to uber-prospect Jesus Montero, a prodigious power hitter in Triple-A who’s just 20 years old and elicits unfavorable scouting reports behind the dish. Francisco Cervelli will get the bulk of the starts until Posada is healed.

Cervelli, 24, was signed out of Venezuela back in 2003. Prior to 2009, though, he was known mostly as “the dude that Elliot Johnson crushed at home plate in spring training ’08” (somewhere in Cleveland, Shelley Duncan just got all twitchy). During his minor league career, the 6-1, 210 pound righty batter posted a .273/.367/.380 triple-slash. Cervelli had a 9.4 percent walk rate, striking out 20.6 percent and rarely driving the ball with a .107 Isolated Power.

Baseball America ranked Cervelli 23rd in the Yankees’ system prior to 2008 and 21st before 2009, but left him off the 2010 top 30 as the club accumulated an embarrassment of riches at the catching position (Montero, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy all made New York’s top 10 according to BA). Cervelli’s catch-and-throw skills were touted in his ’08 and ’09 write-ups, but BA questioned his offensive ceiling:

2008 (John Manuel)

While he has a good swing, he lacks the premium bat speed or strength to hit for power. The ball doesn’t jump off his bat. He does draw some walks, but more advanced pitchers will be more likely to challenge him without fear of reprisal.

2009 (Manuel)

Cervelli lacks the bat speed and strength to produce more than below-average power, and while he has shown good plate discipline in the minors, he’ll have to earn the respect of pitchers at higher levels.

Over the 2008-2010 seasons, Cervelli has logged 187 plate appearances. His line sits at .319/.358/.410, with little in the way of secondary skills (4.8 BB%, .090 ISO) but a high contact rate (13.3 K%) and a .359 batting average on balls in play that’s going to regress (his minor league mark is .336).

Cervelli hasn’t been a hacker, as his 26.2 outside swing percentage is close to the big league average. But, as Baseball America’s Manuel alluded to, major league pitchers are challenging him–Cervelli has gotten a fastball 66.4 of the time, with 52.4 percent of his pitches seen being thrown within the strike zone (48-51% MLB average).

Coming into 2010, CHONE projected a .257/.311/.376 line (.300 wOBA), while ZiPS had a .255/.307/.380 forecast (also a .300 wOBA). Cervelli’s fast start this season has his rest-of-season ZiPS line up to .282/.337/.423 (.334 wOBA), which seems like an awfully large jump, particularly in the power department (.141 ISO). Personally, I would take the “under” on that projection.

Cervelli is relatively young, and his development has been delayed by some kooky injuries (a broken wrist in the Johnson collision that torpedoed his ’08 season and a concussion sustained on a backswing in ’09 among them). But .413 wOBA start aside, he’s probably more of an adequate offensive catcher than any sort of breakout star. Those in mixed leagues might want to turn to someone like L.A.’s Mike Napoli (owned in 47% of Yahoo leagues) or Arizona’s Chris Snyder (13%) instead.