Archive for Felipe Paulino

Every year, at about this time, I like to go back and check in on certain strategies employed on draft day and see how they have served me thus far.  Is it a strategy worth employing again?  What tweaks to it are needed for the next time, if indeed there is a next time?  One strategy in particular, the one that seems to always spur the most discussion, that deserves to be re-visited is the one where I, because of the incredible depth at pitching, draft a beast-like offense first and wait until closer to the middle rounds to pick up my starters.  Nothing but bats to start things off and somewhere around the 10th or 11th round, I grab my first pitcher. Read the rest of this entry »

Zack Greinke is currently starring in ‘The Peripheral Disconnect,’ but Felipe Paulino has been a worthy leading man for the role during most of his career. The 27-year-old righty, long a scouting favorite for his mid-90s gas and upper-80s slider, has nearly a run-and-a-half difference between his xFIP (4.06) and ERA (5.50).

Yet Paulino, now in his third different organization within the past year, appears poised to get off baseball’s D-list by matching process and results with the Royals. Given a chance to start in K.C before another wave of upper-echelon pitching prospects arrives, the former Astro and Rockie is making Dayton Moore look like a smart man.

Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 10.

Kyle Drabek – In his first three starts, Drabek allowed just 4 ER in 18.2 IP for a 1.93 ERA. Since then, he’s allowed 29 ER in 44.2 IP for a 5.84 ERA. In that span, he’s allowed more walks (34) than strikeouts (26) and sports an ugly 1.858 WHIP. Walks are just killing him, as Drabek has a 6.39 BB/9, the worst mark among 115 qualified pitchers and over a full walk worse than the next worst pitcher (Jonathan Sanchez 5.19). Give him a spot on the bench until he gets his walk rate under control.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Three weeks ago, I had Jimenez as a sit and told you to wait until he showed something more. In his last outing he had a four-hit shutout with no walks and seven strikeouts – I think that counts. In his last four starts, covering 30 IP, he’s allowed just eight walks. In the four previous starts, he allowed 19 BB in 18.2 IP. Jimenez faces the Padres and Dodgers this week, the bottom two teams in the National League in runs per game. If you were holding him out, now is definitely the time to get him back in your lineup.

Felipe Paulino – Liberated from the Rockies bullpen, Paulino is back to starting with the Royals. In two starts with Kansas City, he’s pitched 9.1 scoreless innings with 0 BB and 7 Ks. Paulino is a strikeout pitcher who gets lots of groundballs. But the few fly balls he allowed seemingly all left the park in Colorado. He had a 7.36 ERA with the Rockies but a 3.41 xFIP. Available on the waiver wire in most leagues, Paulino is an excellent streaming option this week with his two starts and potentially much more than that.

Joel Pineiro – The switch to more two-seamers back in 2009 turned Pineiro into a pitcher who gets lots of ground balls but few strikeouts. So, he’s really a three-category pitcher at best. But when he’s right, he should deliver numbers in all three remaining categories. Pineiro has scuffled recently but he does have two home starts this week, including one against the Rays, who struggle versus lefties. Against LH starters this year, Tampa has a .652 OPS, the third-worst mark in the American League. Owners have not embraced Pineiro since he came off the DL but this looks like a week where he could contribute.

Josh Tomlin – He is tied for the American League lead with 7 wins and is fifth with a 0.949 WHIP, meaning Tomlin has made owners who picked him up off the waiver wire very happy. But in his past two starts, Tomlin has allowed 10 ER in 12 IP and allowed 3 HR. This week he squares off against the Yankees who lead the AL in both runs per game (5.24) and HR (83 in 54 games) by a wide margin. Tomlin’s start is in the Bronx, where the Yankees have hit 47 HR in 30 games. His other start is against the Twins, who have had trouble scoring runs overall this year but have tallied five or more runs in five of their past seven games. Give Tomlin the week off.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 10 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Lee, Price, Hanson, Lester, Marcum, Greinke, Oswalt, Scherzer, Gonzalez, J. Sanchez, D. Hudson, C. Lewis, Morrow, Zimmermann, Lilly, Correia, Stauffer, Baker, Matusz, Myers, Porcello, Danks, Harrison, Garcia, Westbrook, Richard, Vazquez, Capuano, Leake, Garland, Lannan, Mortensen, Moscoso, Swarzak, Davis, O’Sullivan, Lopez, Reineke.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 8 pitchers and how they fared.

Arroyo – Advised to sit. 2 Ks, 22.24 ERA, 3.706 WHIP, 5.2 IP, 14 ER
Chacin – Advised to start. 11 Ks, 6.23 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 13 IP, 9 ER
de la Rosa – Advised to start. 3 Ks, 7.71 ERA, 2.143 WHIP, 2.1 IP, 2 ER
Hellickson – Advised to start. W, 10 Ks, 1.35 ERA, 0.975 WHIP, 13 IP, 2 ER
Niese – Advised to start. W, 11 Ks, 1.59 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 11.3 IP, 2 ER

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 38 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics.

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Felipe Paulino – pitched in just 5.2 innings after the break. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to a lack of playing time.

Francisco Liriano – His second half ERA was better than his first half mark, but both metrics thought he was outstanding before the All-Star break. This is a clear win for xFIP.

Anibal Sanchez – His 2nd half ERA (3.44) was a near-perfect match for his first half FIP (3.46).

Clay Buchholz – Both systems thought Buchholz was not nearly as good as he was in the first half. FIP had his as a keep while xFIP said he was an active sell. Since Buchholz did even better in the second half of the season than the first, this was a clear victory for FIP.

Josh Johnson – Both systems had Johnson as a keeper, but xFIP did a better job predicting his 3.50 post All-Star break mark.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – After allowing 4 HR in 71 IP in the first half, Matsuzaka served up 9 HR in 82.2 IP after the break. Big win for xFIP.

Johan Santana – His 3.00 ERA in the second half almost identical to his first half mark of 2.98. xFIP had Santana as a cut, so an easy win for FIP.

Jason Vargas – Eight of his 14 starts after the break came on the road and he allowed eight of his 10 second half HR away from Safeco. Big win for xFIP.

Justin Verlander – In the last three years, Verlander has posted an ERA over 5.50 in the month of April. He was terrific from May 1st through the end of the season again in 2010. Easy win for FIP.

Barry Zito – A lousy second half of the season made Zito a spectator for the Giants in the post-season. xFIP did an outstanding job predicting Zito’s collapse.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Just like with Zito, xFIP was just about perfect predicting Jimenez in the second half.

Tom Gorzelanny – Both systems saw Gorzelanny as a pretty good pitcher, but xFIP came closer to his second-half collapse.

John Danks – Again, the crystal ball for xFIP was right on target for Danks.

Tommy Hanson – In both seasons in the majors, Hanson has outperformed his xFIP. He turned it up a notch in the second half of 2010, thanks as much to his .233 BABIP as his 7 HR in 100.1 IP.

Matt Cain – Another pitcher with a history of outperforming his peripherals, Cain beat his FIP by nearly a run and his xFIP by nearly two runs in the second half of 2010.

Clayton Kershaw – Just as good in the second half of the season as he was in the first.

Cliff Lee – Many people wanted to eliminate Lee from this study last year, as he went from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. But Lee outpitched his xFIP after the break in 2009. No such luck for Lee this year while following a similar story line of moving to a tougher park for pitchers.

C.J. Wilson – Like Kershaw, he was remarkable consistent between halves and ended up as a win for FIP.

Livan Hernandez – Those of us who kept predicting the bottom to fall out for Hernandez in 2010 are still waiting. Meanwhile, his second half ERA of 4.02 was a perfect match for his first half FIP.

Doug Fister – I imagine even the staunchest FIP supporters were shopping Fister every chance they could.

Fausto Carmona – After back-to-back seasons with a BB/9 over 5.00, Carmona allowed just 29 BB in 94.0 IP after the break last year. That had more to do with it than HR rate (10 HR in 94 IP) for why FIP was a clear winner.

Gavin Floyd – Fantasy owners did not know start from start what to expect from Floyd, but xFIP did a nice job of predicting his second half ERA.

Mark Buehrle – Like Wilson and Kershaw, Buehrle was a model of consistency with his ERA between halves this year. However, I worry about his K/9 rate and would be shocked if he was on any of my teams next year.

Brandon Morrow – With the Blue Jays out of the race, they decided to shut down a healthy Morrow after his first September start, which limited him to 46.1 IP after the break. A polar opposite to Buehrle, Morrow posted a 10.95 K/9, up from 8.14 a season ago.

Johnny Cueto – Cueto’s second half ERA was in the range predicted by his first half FIP and xFIP. But it was just 0.05 away from his FIP.

John Lackey – His second half ERA of 3.97 was a nice match for his 3.89 career mark but I doubt that makes too many Red Sox fans happy about his season and the team’s remaining obligation to him.

Kevin Correia – The first player on our list to have a big discrepancy between his FIP and xFIP due to a high HR rate, Correia did not show much regression in the second half of the year. Those who thought he would rebound, especially considering his home park, were disappointed. Correia allowed 13 HR in 82.1 IP in Petco this year.

Cole Hamels – Just like in 2009, one pitcher from the high HR rate side completely turned things around to become one of the best pitchers in the second half. Hopefully, Hamels has more luck in 2011 than 2009’s entry did. Rich Harden had a 5.58 ERA in 20 games with the Rangers this year after having a tremendous post-break performance (2.55 ERA) in 2009.

Nick Blackburn – Both systems would have advised cutting Blackburn, who responded with a 3.94 ERA in the second half, as he showed a big across-the-board improvement, including a microscopic 1.83 BB/9.

Kevin Millwood – Most of the players with a high HR/FB rate come back as not worth the risk by both systems. But xFIP said Millwood was significantly better than he showed in the first half and did an excellent job projecting his post-break ERA.

Jeff Karstens – An sore shoulder led to just one appearance in September. I regret the pain suffered by Mr. Karstens but it’s probably just as well that it played out that way.

Zach Duke – Hard to believe he made the All-Star team in 2009. Since then he is 11-23 with a 5.52 ERA.

James Shields – Both systems predicted a big bounce-back performance in the second half by Shields but that never materialized. He continued to give up HR by the basket, saw his K/BB ratio drop by over a full point and saw his BABIP increase to .362 after the break.

Brian Bannister – Limited to 25.2 IP in the second half due to rotator cuff tendinitis.

Randy Wolf – Both systems saw Wolf as waiver wire fodder but he had a 2.67 ERA in his final 13 starts, which was right after I placed him on waivers in a dynasty league.

Doug Davis – Elbow tendinitis kept Davis from pitching after the All-Star break.

Ricky Nolasco – FIP was nearly perfect with its Nolasco forecast, a marked departure in recent history, as he has generally underperformed his peripherals the past two seasons. Of course, Nolasco pitched just 47 innings after the break due to knee surgery.

Ian Kennedy – Neither system thought much of Kennedy going into the break but xFIP had a brighter outlook. Meanwhile, Kennedy put it altogether after the All-Star game, with Quality Starts in seven of his last nine outings. He finally started pitching well in his home park. In his last three games in Chase Field, Kennedy allowed 4 ER (0 HR) in 19 IP.

*****

When I started this comparison in 2009, my belief was that you would be just as well off using either system. After last year, there was a definite raw advantage for xFIP but now with two years worth of data, the two systems are basically even. Overall, there have been 72 pitchers who’ve had a 0.50 or greater difference between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break. Here’s how they did if you used their first half FIP or xFIP to project their second half ERA:

xFIP – 37
FIP – 34
Push – 1

Both systems have strengths and weaknesses. Generally speaking, xFIP does a better job with non-elite pitchers with low HR rates while FIP does a better job with elite hurlers. So, if a Tom Gorzelanny is cruising along with a sub-7.0 HR/FB rate, it appears you should look to sell high. But if it’s Justin Verlander, perhaps you should hold onto him.

We know that over the long haul that xFIP is the better metric to use for most pitchers. The issue here is that for one season (or one partial season) there may not be enough time for regression to fully kick in. Let’s look at Tim Lincecum. In the first half of 2009, he had a 3.9 HR/FB rate. In the second half of the season he had a 7.5 HR/9. This year he had a 9.9 HR/FB ratio. He has been regressing towards a normal HR/FB rate since the first half of 2009. But it did not all come in the same season.

Readers have suggested using first half ERA, or a mid-point between first half FIP and xFIP or an average of all three to see which one best predicted second half ERA. I think these are worthwhile suggestions and perhaps ones that we can use in the future (going back retroactively, too) as our sample size increases. We can also eliminate pitchers who did not pitch substantial innings and look for other trends and anomalies as our population gets bigger.

This started with a claim by my friend and colleague Derek Carty that FIP was basically useless for fantasy purposes with other metrics like xFIP available. Right now it appears FIP is making a case not to be tossed into the trash can by fantasy players.

In 2009, I did a column at the All-Star break to see if FIP or xFIP would be more helpful for fantasy players in making trades. This year I did the same thing. You can see the results below

Should Fantasy Owners Use FIP?
FIP Challenge Results Part I
FIP Challenge Results Part II
FIP Challenge 2010

Here is the table from the 2010 article, along with an additional column, the pitcher’s ERA in the second half of the season.

There are 38 pitchers in the above chart. On a raw scale, the two systems were almost identical, with the FIP metric did a better job of predicting 2nd half ERA in 20 cases while xFIP did better 17 times. Furthermore, FIP did a better job of forecasting 14 of the 26 players with low HR/FB rates and both systems got five of the 11 pitchers (Davis being a wash) with high HR/FB rates.

In 2009, xFIP did better on a raw scale, as it did a better job predicting 20 of the 34 pitchers in the sample.

Similar to 2009, most of the pitchers fell outside the range predicted by FIP and xFIP. For example, Liriano’s FIP was 2.18 while his xFIP was 2.97. But he had a 3.31 second half ERA. Only seven of the 37 players listed above had a second half ERA between their first half FIP and xFIP. The two systems were close on this, too, with FIP being better on four of these seven pitchers. In 2009, 28 of the 34 pitchers had second half ERAs outside the range of their first half FIP and xFIP numbers.

Later today I will post a breakdown of all 38 pitchers in this survey.

The first three spots in the Houston Astros’ rotation are locked up. Ol’ reliable, Roy Oswalt, will be followed by Wandy Rodriguez and free agent pick-up Brett Myers.

Contenders for the back of the rotation include Brian Moehler, Wesley Wright, Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino. Both for the short and long term, the Astros (and fantasy owners) would be best off if Norris and Paulino snag those last two spots.

Norris, who turns 25 tomorrow, was Houston’s sixth-round pick in the 2006 draft. A short, stout righty (6-0, 225 pounds), Norris was tabbed as a future late-inning reliever because of his size and searing mid-90’s fastball. But while the Cal Poly product made his pro debut out of the ‘pen, he has been a starter ever since, as the Astros try to extract maximum value from one of the club’s few young building blocks.

In 340.2 minor league innings, Norris has struck out 9.5 batters per nine frames. His control hasn’t been particularly sharp, however, as he has issued 3.7 BB/9. This past year at Triple-A Round Rock, Norris notched 8.4 K/9, with four walks per nine innings and a 3.41 FIP.

Getting the big league call in late July, Norris slotted into Houston’s rotation (10 starts, one relief appearance). He tossed 55.2 innings, with 8.73 K/9, 4.04 BB/9, 1.46 HR/9 and a 4.38 xFIP.

Norris has a “hard, harder, hardest” repertoire, featuring a 94 MPH fastball, 87-88 MPH slider and an 86-87 MPH changeup. Opposing batters made contact 83.9 percent of the time against his stuff on pitches within the strike zone (87-88 percent MLB average), and 75 percent of the time overall (80-81 percent average).

Bud’s bugaboos are free passes and fly ball tendencies. He has never really been known for painting the black, and while his groundball rate in the minors was 47.4 percent, he burned worms at a 37.2 percent clip in the majors. It’s probably best not to read too much into that number, given the sample size. But it bears watching, given that Minute Maid Park has inflated home run production by eight percent compared to a neutral ball park over the last three seasons.

CHONE projects Norris to compile a 4.40 FIP in 2010, with 8.43 K/9, 4.14 BB/9 and 1.14 HR/9. He’ll miss bats, and he could be a nice addition to Houston’s staff if he can rein in the walks and not allow hitters to put that Minute Maid train in harm’s way.

Norris you probably buy. But Paulino, he of a career 6.40 ERA? Believe it or not, yeah. As Carson Cistulli pointed out earlier this off-season, there’s a big gap between Paulino’s results and the processes behind those results.

Inked out of Venezuela in 2001, Paulino is a 6-2, 260 pound leviathan who also comes equipped with radar gun readings that make scouts salivate. In addition to mid-90’s gas, he totes an upper-80’s slider, with an occasional mid-70’s curveball and mid-80’s changeup. He has punched out 8.4 batters per nine frames, with 4.4 BB/9 in 386.1 career minor league innings (71 starts, 32 relief appearances).

In the majors, Paulino has been pummeled. However, the 26 year-old’s peripherals paint the picture of a talented guy who’s been hosed by some terrible luck. In 116.2 innings (20 starts, eight ‘pen appearances), Paulino has 8.02 K/9, 3.39 BB/9 and a 4.23 xFIP. Yet, his ERA is nearly 2.4 runs higher, due mostly to a .353 BABIP and a 17.6 home run per fly ball rate. When a batter has put the ball in play against Paulino, hits have fallen as if Ichiro were perpetually at the plate. On fly balls, it’s as though Ryan Braun clones were lofting all of them. Those figures are bound to drop precipitously.

Like Norris, Paulino has been pretty hard to make contact against (85.1 Z-Contact, 74 Contact). And, like Norris, his biggest challenges will be honing his control and limiting those leisurely trots around the bases. CHONE envisions a 4.75 FIP for Paulino next year, with 7.81 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and 1.35 HR/9.

The two have experienced some health problems. Norris was shut down a little early last year with right shoulder fatigue, and he missed some time in 2008 with a right elbow strain. Paulino missed nearly the entire 2008 season with a pinched nerve in his right shoulder, and served a DL stint for a right groin strain in 2009.

While neither hurler is a sure thing (is any pitcher?), Norris and Paulino have the punch out potential to be of use in NL-only leagues.

The Houston Astros have reportedly signed free agent RHP Brett Myers to a one-year, $5 million deal with an option for the 2011 season.

Myers, 29, missed a large portion of the 2009 season following right hip surgery to repair a torn labrum in late May. He returned to the majors in early September as a reliever. However, a right shoulder strain shelved him for a few more weeks late in the year.

Philly’s first-round pick in the 1999 amateur draft, Myers was a mainstay in the starting rotation from mid-2002 through 2006. Despite turning in a 3.4 WAR season in 2005 and a 3.5 WAR campaign in 2006, the Phillies shifted Myers to the bullpen in 2007. He moved back to the starting five in 2008, and opened 2009 as a starter prior to the hip injury.

Myers has a wide gap between his career ERA (4.40) and his career Expected Fielding Independent ERA (3.90). Over the past three seasons, the dichotomy is even greater: a 4.56 ERA, and a 3.79 xFIP.

In the majors, Myers has struck out 7.5 batters per nine frames and walked 3.14 per nine innings. The wild divergence between his actual ERA and his xFIP can be explained by Brett’s homer-happy ways: he has surrendered 1.35 round-trippers per nine innings, despite generating more ground balls than the average pitcher (his GB% is 47.3). In general, home run per fly ball rates tend to stick around 10 to 12 percent. However, Myers’ HR/FB rate in nearly 1,200 innings is 15.5 percent.

Making 10 starts and eight relief appearances in 2009, Myers posted rates of 6.37 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9. He served up a jaw-dropping 18 dingers in just 70.2 innings pitched (2.29 HR/9). Again, his ERA (4.84) and xFIP (4.32) were far apart, as his HR/fly ball rate was stratospheric 23.4 percent.

In recent years, Myers has relied on his fastball less often. He chucked the pitch between 56 and 63 percent of the time between 2002 to 2005, but has since gone to his heater less than 50 percent. His fastball has been battered for a -0.77 run value per 100 pitches in the majors.

That fastball is pretty straight, tailing in on righty batters just four inches compared to a pitch thrown without spin (six inch MLB average for right-handed pitchers). As Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool shows, that true fastball hasn’t garnered many swings and misses over the past two seasons. Myers’ whiff rate with his fastball since 2008 is four percent, while the MLB average is about six percent.

Myers’ bread and butter is his breaking stuff: an average mid-80’s slider (+0.03 runs/100) and a plus high-70’s curveball (+1.48) that drops off the table. A seldom-used changeup (-0.78) hasn’t been very effective.

Though we’re dealing with a small sample, Myers was more hittable in 2009 than in years past. His overall contact rate was 84.4 percent, compared to a career 80.3 percent average (the MLB average is 80-81 percent). His swinging strike rate was 6.5 percent, well below his career norm.

Moving from Citizens Bank Park to Minute Maid, Myers goes from a venue that increased home run production by 14 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009 to one that inflated homers by eight percent over the past three seasons. Overall, CPB has boosted run scoring by three percent, while Minute Maid has decreased runs by four percent.

CHONE projects Myers to post a 4.79 ERA in 2010, with 7.57 K/9, 3.07 BB/9, and 1.5 HR/9 in 126 innings pitched. He’s worth a late-round flyer, but his uncertain health status and gopher-ball problems make Myers hard to recommend strongly.

Myers’ addition likely means that Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino and Brian Moehler will compete for two rotation spots.

Norris’ control has never been a strong suit, but his low-to-mid-90’s gas and hard slider have missed plenty of lumber. Twenty-five in March, Norris had a 4.38 xFIP, 8.73 K/9 and 4.04 BB/9 in 55.2 IP for the Astros last season.

Paulino’s ’09 results look horrifying (6.27 ERA), but as Carson Cistulli points out, Felipe’s peripherals were far more promising. He punched out 8.57 per nine innings and walked 3.41, also showcasing a mid-90’s fastball and a hard breaking ball. But a .368 BABIP and a 16.9 HR/FB% made him look like a punching bag. The 26 year-old’s xFIP in 97.2 frames was 4.10.

Moehler pitched better than his 5.47 ERA would indicate (4.67 xFIP), but fantasy types should be rooting for Norris and Paulino to win those last two spots.

Here on Wednesday in the final week of the season most leagues have already passed their deadline for waivers. But for those of you in daily transaction leagues with moves still available and innings left to play with, there are no shortage of pitchers to consider. Here are the pitchers going Thursday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Kip Wells (1%) – Has a home start against Carpenter and St. Louis. After being designated for assignment earlier this year by the Nationals, Wells hooked up with the Reds. He pitched three games out of the bullpen and then moved into the rotation for his last six outings. Wells is 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.178 WHIP in that span. He’s appeared in four games this year in Great American Ball Park, where he is 1-0 with a 3.80 ERA. Wells has made two relief appearances versus the Cardinals and has allowed 1 ER in 3.2 IP.

Nate Robertson (4%) – Has a home start against Baker and the Twins. After spending most of the season in the bullpen, Robertson has made three straight starts for the Tigers. He is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA in that span, with 11 BB and 8 Ks in 12 IP. Robertson has a 3.70 home ERA this season and has 6 IP and 2 ER against the Twins with one win this year.

Manny Parra (28%) – Has a road start in Colorado versus Cook. After starting the season 3-8, Parra is 8-2 with a 4.95 ERA in his last 13 starts. This year he is 6-7 with a 6.87 ERA in road starts. Parra has yet to pitch this season in Coors Field.

Garrett Mock (5%) – Has a road start in Atlanta versus Hanson. Mock has dropped his last five decisions and has a 7.03 ERA and has a 1.656 WHIP in his last six games. He gave up 4 ER in 5 IP 9/26 versus the Braves and is 0-2 with a 6.31 ERA versus them this season. Overall, Mock is 2-3 with a 4.87 ERA in road games this season.

Felipe Paulino (3%) – Has a road start in Philadelphia versus Lee. Paulino has lost seven consecutive decisions and has a 7.71 ERA in his last 10 games. He is 1-6 with an 8.37 ERA in road games this year and has yet to face the Phillies this season.

Chris Waters (0%) – Has a road start in Tampa versus Garza. Waters was 9-7 in Triple-A this season before getting the call to Baltimore. He has made four relief appearances for the Orioles and this will be the 28-year old’s first start of the season after making 11 in 2008. The lefty is a fastball/slider pitcher.

Carlos Carrasco (11%) – Has a road start in Boston versus Lester. Carrasco was part of the package received from Philadelphia in the Lee trade. He was 5-1 in Triple-A for Columbus after the deal with a 3.19 ERA. Carrasco has made four starts for Cleveland and has given up four or more earned runs in each of them. On the plus side, Carrasco has a 2.19 GB/FB mark. However, when batters get the ball in the air, they hit it out of the park 37.5 percent of the time.

Paul Maholm (43%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Samardzija. In his last seven starts, Maholm is 2-2 with a 2.89 ERA and he has allowed just 2 HR in 46.2 IP. Maholm is 4-6 with a 5.54 ERA in road games this season. In his only game against the Cubs, he allowed 7 ER in 4 IP but came away with a no-decision.

Jeff Samardzija (6%) – Has a home start against Maholm and the Pirates. A candidate for the rotation in Spring Training, Samardzija made his second start of the season in his last outing, in which he gave up 3 ER (on 2 HR) in 5 IP and took the loss. The gopher ball has been a problem for Samardzija this season but it has been more pronounced on the road. He has allowed 2 HR in 15.2 IP at Wrigley but 5 HR in 19 IP on the road.

Doug Fister (10%) – Has a home start against Anderson and the A’s. After a strong showing at the start of his major league career, Fister is 0-3 with an 8.80 ERA in his last three starts. He is 2-2 with a 4.31 ERA in home starts this season. Fister has faced Oakland once this season and allowed 1 ER in 5 IP and got a no-decision.

Here is the latest update to Week 6 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update
ANA – Weaver
DET – Galarraga
KCY – Hochevar
HOU – Paulino
SEA – Vargas
FLA – Koronka

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts
PHI – Moyer
HOU – Hampton
FLA – Sanchez
DET – Miner
SEA – Silva
KCY – Ponson
ANA – Ortega

Weaver is having a fine season and is coming off a complete-game victory with eight strikeouts. He should be active in all formats but is facing a tough road with a matchup against the Red Sox and a road start in Texas.

In his last two starts Galarraga has given up 11 ER in 11 IP with five strikeouts and three home runs allowed. His 4.09 BB/9 is nothing to write home about, either.

Hochevar takes Soria’s spot on the roster and Ponson’s spot in the rotation. He was 5-0 with a 0.90 ERA at Triple-A. Hochevar had 30 strikeouts and 10 walks in 40 innings at Omaha.

After getting bumped to the bullpen when Moehler came off the disabled list, Paulino returns to the rotation taking Ortiz’ spot. In three games as a starter, Paulino has a 2.55 ERA. In three games as a reliever his ERA is 21.00.

Vargas gets a spot in the rotation after picking up a win in two appearances as a reliever. He averaged 9.14 K/9 in 21.2 IP at Triple-A and has four strikeouts in 3.2 IP with Seattle.

Never a big strikeout pitcher, Koronka punched out 24 batters in 27 innings at Triple-A. However, he gave up four home runs in that time span.

A fair number of stars, like Tim Lincecum and Johan Santana, are slated for two starts in Week 5. But since you are going to start those guys anyway, let’s take a look at some other pitchers you may be on the fence about who are projected for two starts in those leagues with weeks starting on Monday.

Josh Beckett – Ordinarily he would be a no-brainer pick for your lineup, even if he had just one start in a week. But Beckett’s been unimpressive since his Opening Day outing. Since then he’s pitched 17.2 innings and allowed 22 earned runs. It is always a risk to take a horse like Beckett out of the lineup, but two starts of lousy pitching this week is something of which to be wary. His two games are at New York and versus Tampa Bay.

Chris Volstad – He has a 2.67 ERA overall and in his last start allowed just two runs in seven innings while he struck out five batters. Bench him anyway. Volstad has a tough matchup with Edinson Volquez in his first start and then he has to go to Colorado for his second outing, always a tricky place for pitchers and not one that a hurler who has allowed five home runs in 30.1 innings should particularly relish.

Mark Buehrle – The veteran has been extremely effective so far this season, as he has allowed two, one, three and two earned runs in his four outings. Buehrle also is doing a better than usual job of striking out batters, as he has notched 17 Ks in 24 IP. His first start is at Kansas City and then he returns to Chicago for a matchup with Texas.

Paul Maholm – I am going with my gut on this one. His first start is against the Brewers, who roughed up Maholm in his last outing. I like pitchers who get a quick shot at revenge against a team that just beat them. Plus, Pittsburgh has to beat Milwaukee one of these days, right? The losing streak is up to 15 games now. In his second start, Maholm goes up against Livan Hernandez and the Mets at Citi Field.

Felipe Paulino – A pinched nerve in his shoulder kept Paulino out for virtually the entire 2008 season. He opened this year in the minors but was promoted when Brian Moehler hit the DL in mid-April. Since then the 25-year old with the 95 mph fastball has been solid, despite his 0-2 record. He has a 3.25 K/BB ratio and has yet to allow a HR. Unfortunately, his teammates have provided him with only four runs in three games. His first start is at Washington and then he returns home to face off against San Diego.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 5 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Santana, Greinke, Gallardo, Hernandez, Kazmir Burnett, Johnson, Lester, Wainwright, Vazquez, Bedard, Harang, Dempster, Volquez, Hamels, Chamberlain, Myers, Garza, Millwood, Floyd, Liriano, Jackson, Scherzer, Carmona, Sanchez, Davies, Uehara, Marshall, Davis, Snell, Cook, Reyes, Blackburn, Porcello, Braden, Kawakami, Stults, Tallet, Anderson, Padilla, Boggs, Olsen, McDonald, Hernandez, De la Rosa, Cabrera, Correia, Ortiz, Geer, Loux, Eaton, Ortega and Burress.