Archive for Fausto Carmona

If you want to follow the action when Cleveland’s starters are on the bump in 2012, keep your eyes glued on the infield. The Indians exercised Fausto Carmona’s $7 million option for next season and then swung a trade with Atlanta for sinkerballer Derek Lowe. With Lowe joining Carmona, Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland’s starting rotation will wage one serious ground war. Lowe, Masterson and Carmona ranked in the top 10 among qualified starters in ground ball percentage, and all four have a career ground ball rate north of 50 percent:

Read the rest of this entry »

Usually we have two columns on two-start pitchers but circumstances beyond my control made the Friday column impossible. So, this week there will be just the Sunday one. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 21.

Fausto Carmona – The overall numbers for Carmona are pretty uninspiring (6-12, 4.89) but in his last seven games he has pitched much better. Carmona’s ERA has dropped a full run in that span, as he has a 2.51 ERA over his last 43 IP. Carmona has had very good control this year and recently he’s kept his HR in check, too. He allowed 15 HR in 104.1 IP before the All-Star break and 4 in 41.0 IP here in the second half. This week he goes up against SEA and KC, two teams that are below average in hitting homers. Get Carmona into you lineup this week.

Bartolo Colon – After he was roughed up by the Blue Jays in his first start in the second half, many began to wonder if the clock had struck midnight on Colon’s surprising comeback season. But Colon bounced back with a 3.71 ERA over his last six starts, with 10 BB and 28 Ks in 34 IP. He’s got a fairly normal .314 BABIP in this span, too. He faces BAL and OAK this week, two teams that are a combined 31 games under .500 this season. He should be active this week.

Ryan Dempster – In his last four games, Dempster is 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA. But unlike Colon, he’s done that with a .242 BABIP. Batters have hit 27 fly balls in this span and have 2 HR. Prior to this stretch, Dempster allowed 14 HR on 124 fly balls. Dempster has a home game against the Braves, who have won 12 of their last 16 games, and then a road start in Milwaukee, where the Brewers are second in the NL with 78 HR at home and have a 47-16 mark at Miller Field. Give Dempster a spot on the bench this week.

Ricky Nolasco – It’s hard to imagine worse possible matchups for a starting pitcher in the NL, as Nolasco squares off against ERA leader Johnny Cueto in his first start and gets Wins leader Roy Halladay in his second outing. And in his last start, Nolasco allowed 11 H and 11 ER in 3 IP. For the clincher, Nolasco is not piling up strikeouts like he has in the past, as he has a pedestrian 20 Ks in his last 31.2 IP. Put him on your bench this week.

Bud Norris – In the first half of the season, Norris surrendered 11 HR in 112 IP. In the second half he’s given up 8 HR in 40 IP. Additionally, his K/9 has dropped from 9.1 to 7.2 in the same span. Norris has a start in COL this week, never a good thing for a pitcher struggling with the gopher ball and one who gives up more fly balls than grounders. If you have the depth, give Norris a week on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 21 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, Greinke, Cain, Carpenter, Kennedy, Cueto, Wilson, Price, Masterson, Morrow, Lewis, Chacin, Niemann, Jurrjens, Lohse, Zimmermann, Bedard, Niese, Kartends, Lackey, Saunders, Myers, Duensing, Vargas, Pavano, McCarthy, Eovaldi, Chen, Guthrie, Penny, Britton, Detwiler, Coleman.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 19 pitchers and how they fared.

Cecil – Advised to start. 8 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 0.786 WHIP, 14 IP, 7 ER
Garza – Advised to start. 14 Ks, 4.09 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, 11 IP, 5 ER
Harrison – Advised to start. W, 12 Ks, 4.38 ERA, 1.135 WHIP, 12.1 IP, 6 ER
Hudson – Advised to start. W, 5 Ks, 4.91 ERA, 1.909 WHIP, 12 IP, 8 ER
Masterson – Advised to start. 6 Ks, 3.72 ERA, 1.138 WHIP, 9.2 IP, 4 ER

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 9.

Erik Bedard – After losing his first four decisions, Bedard has quietly put up some monster numbers in his last five starts. In that span, he’s 3-0 with a 1.09 ERA with 28 Ks and 7 BB in 33 IP. While his curveball may not be the unhittable pitch it was back in his pre-injured heyday, he still has an impressive 30.1 O-Swing%. Bedard has a deep repertoire and throws all of his pitches for strikes. He has two home starts this week against East Coast teams. It all adds up to a must-start week.

Madison Bumgarner – Each pitching staff has the guy that seemingly gets no run support and Bumgarner fills that role on the Giants. The offense has provided him with an average run support of 2.27 in his 10 starts, which explains how in his last six games, all Quality Starts, Bumgarner is 1-3. If he can’t get wins when he’s pitching well, what happens if he falters? This week he goes up against two pitchers with a combined 11-4 record this year. And with the Giants now without their cleanup hitter, it seems like a good time to sit the unlucky youngster.

Fausto Carmona – If you look at the WHIP leaders, you’ll see a nice collection of the game’s top pitchers and this year’s success stories. You’ll also find Carmona. So far this season, Carmona is 3-5 with a 4.73 ERA. And this is with a 1.18 WHIP. The last three starts have not been kind, as he has allowed 16 ER in 20.2 IP, thanks in part to 4 HR allowed. This week he goes up against Toronto and Texas, two of the better HR-hitting clubs in the AL. And his start against the Blue Jays is in Toronto, where the Jays have hit 30 HR in 23 games. Keep Carmona on your bench this week.

Charlie Morton – If you haven’t already read it, check out Cameron’s piece on Morton. Basically, Morton has revamped his approach and is now death on RHB. Some in the comments section even compared him to Doc Halladay. I don’t trust pitchers with BB/9 over 4 and Morton’s currently sits at 4.21 BB/9 after nine starts. This week he goes up against the Mets and Phillies, two teams that can easily put five LHB into their lineups. This seems like a week for the wheels to come off the Morton bandwagon so give him a spot on the bench if you can.

Ervin Santana – Everyone seems to be down on Santana because he’s not the pitcher he was in 2008. But the reality is he’s still a pretty good pitcher. The stat that jumps off the page is his 3.59 K/BB ratio, which goes a long way in explaining how both his FIP (3.41) and xFIP (3.52) are lower than his ERA (3.95). In his last two starts, Santana is 2-0 and in 15 IP he’s allowed just 1 ER with 2 BB and 13 Ks. This week he goes up against the Royals and Yankees, two teams struggling after hot starts. Get Santana active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 9 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Lester, Cahill, Billingsley, Kennedy, Wilson, Carpenter, Colon, McClellan, Latos, Arrieta, Vogelsong, T. Hudson, Harang, Davis, Wood, Narveson, Marquis, Holland, McDonald, Penny, Blackburn, Happ, Hochevar, Dickey, Fister, Gee, Francis, L. Hernandez, Saunders, Volstad, Talbot, Sonnanstine, A. Rodriguez, J. Reyes.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 7 pitchers and how they fared.

Garland – Advised to start. 3 Ks, 8.38 ERA, 2.379 WHIP, 9.2 IP, 9 ER
Garza – Advised to start. 3 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 6 IP, 0 ER
Jimenez – Advised to sit. 11 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, 15 IP, 5 ER
Porcello – Advised to start. W, 3 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.375 WHIP, 8 IP, 0 ER
Volquez – Advised to sit. 12 Ks, 9.35 ERA, 1.731 WHIP, 8.2 IP, 9 ER

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 38 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics.

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Felipe Paulino – pitched in just 5.2 innings after the break. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to a lack of playing time.

Francisco Liriano – His second half ERA was better than his first half mark, but both metrics thought he was outstanding before the All-Star break. This is a clear win for xFIP.

Anibal Sanchez – His 2nd half ERA (3.44) was a near-perfect match for his first half FIP (3.46).

Clay Buchholz – Both systems thought Buchholz was not nearly as good as he was in the first half. FIP had his as a keep while xFIP said he was an active sell. Since Buchholz did even better in the second half of the season than the first, this was a clear victory for FIP.

Josh Johnson – Both systems had Johnson as a keeper, but xFIP did a better job predicting his 3.50 post All-Star break mark.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – After allowing 4 HR in 71 IP in the first half, Matsuzaka served up 9 HR in 82.2 IP after the break. Big win for xFIP.

Johan Santana – His 3.00 ERA in the second half almost identical to his first half mark of 2.98. xFIP had Santana as a cut, so an easy win for FIP.

Jason Vargas – Eight of his 14 starts after the break came on the road and he allowed eight of his 10 second half HR away from Safeco. Big win for xFIP.

Justin Verlander – In the last three years, Verlander has posted an ERA over 5.50 in the month of April. He was terrific from May 1st through the end of the season again in 2010. Easy win for FIP.

Barry Zito – A lousy second half of the season made Zito a spectator for the Giants in the post-season. xFIP did an outstanding job predicting Zito’s collapse.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Just like with Zito, xFIP was just about perfect predicting Jimenez in the second half.

Tom Gorzelanny – Both systems saw Gorzelanny as a pretty good pitcher, but xFIP came closer to his second-half collapse.

John Danks – Again, the crystal ball for xFIP was right on target for Danks.

Tommy Hanson – In both seasons in the majors, Hanson has outperformed his xFIP. He turned it up a notch in the second half of 2010, thanks as much to his .233 BABIP as his 7 HR in 100.1 IP.

Matt Cain – Another pitcher with a history of outperforming his peripherals, Cain beat his FIP by nearly a run and his xFIP by nearly two runs in the second half of 2010.

Clayton Kershaw – Just as good in the second half of the season as he was in the first.

Cliff Lee – Many people wanted to eliminate Lee from this study last year, as he went from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. But Lee outpitched his xFIP after the break in 2009. No such luck for Lee this year while following a similar story line of moving to a tougher park for pitchers.

C.J. Wilson – Like Kershaw, he was remarkable consistent between halves and ended up as a win for FIP.

Livan Hernandez – Those of us who kept predicting the bottom to fall out for Hernandez in 2010 are still waiting. Meanwhile, his second half ERA of 4.02 was a perfect match for his first half FIP.

Doug Fister – I imagine even the staunchest FIP supporters were shopping Fister every chance they could.

Fausto Carmona – After back-to-back seasons with a BB/9 over 5.00, Carmona allowed just 29 BB in 94.0 IP after the break last year. That had more to do with it than HR rate (10 HR in 94 IP) for why FIP was a clear winner.

Gavin Floyd – Fantasy owners did not know start from start what to expect from Floyd, but xFIP did a nice job of predicting his second half ERA.

Mark Buehrle – Like Wilson and Kershaw, Buehrle was a model of consistency with his ERA between halves this year. However, I worry about his K/9 rate and would be shocked if he was on any of my teams next year.

Brandon Morrow – With the Blue Jays out of the race, they decided to shut down a healthy Morrow after his first September start, which limited him to 46.1 IP after the break. A polar opposite to Buehrle, Morrow posted a 10.95 K/9, up from 8.14 a season ago.

Johnny Cueto – Cueto’s second half ERA was in the range predicted by his first half FIP and xFIP. But it was just 0.05 away from his FIP.

John Lackey – His second half ERA of 3.97 was a nice match for his 3.89 career mark but I doubt that makes too many Red Sox fans happy about his season and the team’s remaining obligation to him.

Kevin Correia – The first player on our list to have a big discrepancy between his FIP and xFIP due to a high HR rate, Correia did not show much regression in the second half of the year. Those who thought he would rebound, especially considering his home park, were disappointed. Correia allowed 13 HR in 82.1 IP in Petco this year.

Cole Hamels – Just like in 2009, one pitcher from the high HR rate side completely turned things around to become one of the best pitchers in the second half. Hopefully, Hamels has more luck in 2011 than 2009’s entry did. Rich Harden had a 5.58 ERA in 20 games with the Rangers this year after having a tremendous post-break performance (2.55 ERA) in 2009.

Nick Blackburn – Both systems would have advised cutting Blackburn, who responded with a 3.94 ERA in the second half, as he showed a big across-the-board improvement, including a microscopic 1.83 BB/9.

Kevin Millwood – Most of the players with a high HR/FB rate come back as not worth the risk by both systems. But xFIP said Millwood was significantly better than he showed in the first half and did an excellent job projecting his post-break ERA.

Jeff Karstens – An sore shoulder led to just one appearance in September. I regret the pain suffered by Mr. Karstens but it’s probably just as well that it played out that way.

Zach Duke – Hard to believe he made the All-Star team in 2009. Since then he is 11-23 with a 5.52 ERA.

James Shields – Both systems predicted a big bounce-back performance in the second half by Shields but that never materialized. He continued to give up HR by the basket, saw his K/BB ratio drop by over a full point and saw his BABIP increase to .362 after the break.

Brian Bannister – Limited to 25.2 IP in the second half due to rotator cuff tendinitis.

Randy Wolf – Both systems saw Wolf as waiver wire fodder but he had a 2.67 ERA in his final 13 starts, which was right after I placed him on waivers in a dynasty league.

Doug Davis – Elbow tendinitis kept Davis from pitching after the All-Star break.

Ricky Nolasco – FIP was nearly perfect with its Nolasco forecast, a marked departure in recent history, as he has generally underperformed his peripherals the past two seasons. Of course, Nolasco pitched just 47 innings after the break due to knee surgery.

Ian Kennedy – Neither system thought much of Kennedy going into the break but xFIP had a brighter outlook. Meanwhile, Kennedy put it altogether after the All-Star game, with Quality Starts in seven of his last nine outings. He finally started pitching well in his home park. In his last three games in Chase Field, Kennedy allowed 4 ER (0 HR) in 19 IP.

*****

When I started this comparison in 2009, my belief was that you would be just as well off using either system. After last year, there was a definite raw advantage for xFIP but now with two years worth of data, the two systems are basically even. Overall, there have been 72 pitchers who’ve had a 0.50 or greater difference between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break. Here’s how they did if you used their first half FIP or xFIP to project their second half ERA:

xFIP – 37
FIP – 34
Push – 1

Both systems have strengths and weaknesses. Generally speaking, xFIP does a better job with non-elite pitchers with low HR rates while FIP does a better job with elite hurlers. So, if a Tom Gorzelanny is cruising along with a sub-7.0 HR/FB rate, it appears you should look to sell high. But if it’s Justin Verlander, perhaps you should hold onto him.

We know that over the long haul that xFIP is the better metric to use for most pitchers. The issue here is that for one season (or one partial season) there may not be enough time for regression to fully kick in. Let’s look at Tim Lincecum. In the first half of 2009, he had a 3.9 HR/FB rate. In the second half of the season he had a 7.5 HR/9. This year he had a 9.9 HR/FB ratio. He has been regressing towards a normal HR/FB rate since the first half of 2009. But it did not all come in the same season.

Readers have suggested using first half ERA, or a mid-point between first half FIP and xFIP or an average of all three to see which one best predicted second half ERA. I think these are worthwhile suggestions and perhaps ones that we can use in the future (going back retroactively, too) as our sample size increases. We can also eliminate pitchers who did not pitch substantial innings and look for other trends and anomalies as our population gets bigger.

This started with a claim by my friend and colleague Derek Carty that FIP was basically useless for fantasy purposes with other metrics like xFIP available. Right now it appears FIP is making a case not to be tossed into the trash can by fantasy players.

In 2009, I did a column at the All-Star break to see if FIP or xFIP would be more helpful for fantasy players in making trades. This year I did the same thing. You can see the results below

Should Fantasy Owners Use FIP?
FIP Challenge Results Part I
FIP Challenge Results Part II
FIP Challenge 2010

Here is the table from the 2010 article, along with an additional column, the pitcher’s ERA in the second half of the season.

There are 38 pitchers in the above chart. On a raw scale, the two systems were almost identical, with the FIP metric did a better job of predicting 2nd half ERA in 20 cases while xFIP did better 17 times. Furthermore, FIP did a better job of forecasting 14 of the 26 players with low HR/FB rates and both systems got five of the 11 pitchers (Davis being a wash) with high HR/FB rates.

In 2009, xFIP did better on a raw scale, as it did a better job predicting 20 of the 34 pitchers in the sample.

Similar to 2009, most of the pitchers fell outside the range predicted by FIP and xFIP. For example, Liriano’s FIP was 2.18 while his xFIP was 2.97. But he had a 3.31 second half ERA. Only seven of the 37 players listed above had a second half ERA between their first half FIP and xFIP. The two systems were close on this, too, with FIP being better on four of these seven pitchers. In 2009, 28 of the 34 pitchers had second half ERAs outside the range of their first half FIP and xFIP numbers.

Later today I will post a breakdown of all 38 pitchers in this survey.

Though he’s still just 26 years old, Fausto Carmona has played many parts during the course of his pro career. The 6-4, 230 pound righty, signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2000, once was a top prospect — his ground ball-generating sinker and impressive control (career 1.6 BB/9 in the minors) led Baseball America to name him the 76th-best prospect in the game prior to 2004. After a brief bullpen cameo with the Indians in 2006, Carmona blossomed into a front-line starter, racking up 4.2 WAR in 2007. But that success was short-lived — with those pesky midges seemingly stealing his ability to throw strikes, Carmona’s walk rate soared in 2008 and 2009. He posted just 1.3 WAR over that period, missing significant time with a left hip injury in ’08 and earning a punitive demotion to Triple-A in ’09.

In 2010, however, Carmona looks to be back on track. He’s got a 3.69 ERA in 109.2 innings, and he’ll head to Anaheim next week as Cleveland’s representative in the All-Star game. Is Fausto back? Digging a little deeper reveals a mixed bag of results — he’s clearly pitching better this season than in 2008 and 2009, but he’s not approaching that halcyon 2007 level of performance.

Back in ’07, Carmona supplemented a modest K rate (5.73 K/9) with excellent control (2.55 BB/9) and ground balls by the bucketful (64.3 GB%). The final product? A 3.88 xFIP in 215 frames. Carmona put plenty of pitches within the strike zone (51.4%, compared to the 50.3% average that season), but he still managed a league-average swinging strike rate of 8.6 percent. In 2008 and 2009, though, Carmona struggled to locate his pitches and got fewer batters to swing and miss:

In 246 combined innings in ’08 and ’09, Carmona struck out 5.01 batters per nine and issued 5.12 BB/9. His ground ball rate, while still strong, declined to 59.2%. With fewer whiffs and worm burners, as well as a walk rate that doubled compared to 2007, Carmona posted a cringe-worthy 5.05 xFIP.

This season, Carmona has improved — somewhat. His punch out rate has actually fallen again (4.68 K/9), and he’s getting swinging strikes just 6.3%. His ground ball rate (58.1%) is below that mid-sixties total from ’07 and comes in under his average over the ’08 and ’09 seasons, too (even so, Carmona’s GB% is fourth-highest among MLB starters). But most importantly, he has pared his walk rate down to 3.2 per nine innings pitched, while putting an above-average number of pitches within the strike zone (49.8%, compared to the 47.1% MLB average).

Not surprisingly, Carmona’s cut in free passes dished out is the result a sharper sinker. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Carmona threw his fastball for a strike 60.2% of the time over the 2008-2009 seasons (62-64% MLB average), with batters swinging at 42.6% of the fastballs he threw (42-45% MLB average). So far in 2010, he’s throwing his fastball for a strike 63.9%, with hitters offering at 45.3% of those pitches.

Carmona’s xFIP is 4.54, certainly serviceable but not nearly as shiny as his current 3.69 ERA. His BABIP is .274, compared to a .299 career BABIP, and his home run per fly ball rate is 6.9% (10.7% career average, right around the MLB average). For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a 4.55 FIP for Fausto. It’s likely that once Carmona is done rubbing elbows with baseball’s elite at the Midsummer Classic, he’ll give up more hits on balls in play and won’t see as many fly balls die at the warning track.

Stock Up

Brett Anderson, Athletics

Oakland’s 21 year-old rookie was plenty good during the first half of the 2009 season, but he has ascended into elite territory since the Midsummer Classic:

1st Half: 87.1 IP, 6.6 K/9, 2.78 BB/9
2nd Half: 77.1 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.21 BB/9

Anderson’s uptick in performance coincided with an increase in velocity:

Anderson’s fastball and slider velocity, by month:

April: 91 MPH for the fastball, 82.7 MPH for the slider
May: 91.4, 82.4
June 92.6, 83.8
July: 93.6, 85
August: 93, 84.2
September: 93.4, 84.2

Anderson’s souped-up fastball hasn’t been dominant (-0.61 runs/100 pitches for the year), but that mid-80’s slider has been deadly (+2.79 runs/100, best in the majors). What makes the pitch so wicked? It may be the unusual depth and bite on the offering. Anderson’s slider drops in the zone 3.4 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. By comparison, the average lefty slider has +1.7 inches of vertical movement (rising 1.7 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin).

Howie Kendrick, Angels

Optioned to AAA Salt Lake in June, Kendrick has returned to the majors with a vengeance. His second-half surge (.385/.409/.594 in 149 PA) owes something to an obscene .430 BABIP, but Howie (or is it Howard?) is hammering the ball with a .209 ISO since the break. Overall, Kendrick has a .344 wOBA and a .153 ISO, both career bests. He’s still a free swinger who rarely draws a free pass (4.9 BB%), but the former top prospect has gradually tightened his zone while making more contact:

2007: 40.1 O-Swing%, 75.6 Contact%
2008: 36.6 O-Swing%, 76.2 Contact%
2009: 32.4 O-Swing%, 80.3 Contact%

(the MLB averages are 25% and 81%, respectively)

Scott Feldman, Rangers

With 5.3 K/9 and 2.85 BB/9, Feldman has been more solid rotation cog (4.59 Expected Fielding Independent ERA) than the breakout ace that his ERA (3.62) or win total (17) would suggest. However, the 26 year-old has undergone one drastic transformation over the past few seasons.

Prior to the 2008 season, Feldman was essentially a ROOGY (Right-Handed One Out Guy), a somewhat pejorative term used to describe righty relievers who get pummeled by southpaw batters. His side-arm motion generated lots of groundballs (58 GB% from 2005-2007), but his opportunities against opposite-handed batters were limited.

He switched release points and jobs in ’08, moving into the rotation. Feldman’s peripherals (4.4 K/9, 3.33 BB/9, 5.25 XFIP) weren’t all that special. In 2009, Feldman has changed his pitching approach. He tossed a fastball 63.5% of the time in ’08, but he has thrown a heater just 44.9% this season.

In place of the conventional fastball, Feldman is relying heavily upon a 90 MPH cutter (thrown 33% of the time). The pitch has been extremely effective, with a value of +2.94 runs per 100 pitches. That figure may be inflated a little by Feldman’s good fortune of balls put in play (the run values are results-based, so a low BABIP or HR/FB rate could influence the pitch values), but that cutter has helped him battle southpaws. Lefties lashed Scott for a .846 OPS in 2008 (17 percent worse than the league average), but just a .623 OPS in 2009 (38 percent better than the league average).

Felipe Lopez, Brewers

Coming off of a pair of tepid seasons at the plate (.295 wOBA in 2007, .320 in 2008), Lopez had to settle for a 1-year, $3.5M deal with the Diamondbacks over the winter. Without question, Felipe was one of the best bargains on the free agent market, accumulating 4.6 WAR between the D-Backs and the Brewers. That production is worth roughly $20-$21M.

Lopez has been fortunate, with a .364 BABIP this year. According to this expected BABIP calculator, the switch-hitter should have a BABIP around .333. That would make his .312/.382/.433 line something closer to .281/.351/.402. That still equates to a wOBA of about .345, besting his work during a nomadic stretch that saw Lopez roam through Cincinnati, Washington and St. Louis. Lopez’s walk rate this season is up to 10.1% (8.1 and 8.2% in ’07 and ’08).

Robinson Tejeda, Royals

When your club can’t see first place with the aid of the Keck Telescopes, September baseball can be a drag. But there is one perk associated with being woefully out of contention: the chance to evaluate players in expanded roles.

Case in point: Robinson Tejeda. For most of his pro career, Tejeda has thrown really, really hard (94.3 MPH in 2009) toward the general vicinity of home plate. However, the former Ranger and Phillie has shown about as much control as Dayton Moore near an expensive, low-OBP position player (5.11 BB/9 career).

So far, Tejeda has taken to the rotation better than expected. In four starts spanning 22.1 innings, Robinson has posted a 24/10 K/BB ratio, with a microscopic 0.81 ERA. The 27 year-old has, of course, been exceptionally lucky on balls in play (.170 BABIP as a starter).

But, Tejeda has retained his velocity battling lineups multiple times (94.5 MPH), while garnering plenty of outside swings (33.3%, 25% MLB average) and posting a low contact rate (73.7%, 81% MLB average). It’s just four starts, so no conclusions can really be drawn. Still, Tejeda at least gives Royals fans something to focus on while waiting for Billy Butler‘s next AB or Zack Greinke’s next start.

Stock Down

Freddy Sanchez, Giants

The Pirates received plenty of backlash from fans and the local press for trading Sanchez, a respected community member and a decent second baseman when healthy, to the Giants this past summer. That venom aimed at the organization didn’t take into account that the 31 year-old might just be breaking down physically.

Courtesy of Sportsnet, here’s Sanchez’s sizeable list of ailments since the beginning of the 2007 season:

Sep 7, 2009: Missed 19 games (left shoulder injury).
Aug 25, 2009: Left shoulder injury, 15-day DL.
Aug 18, 2009: Left shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Aug 2, 2009: Missed 5 games (sore left knee).
Jul 27, 2009: Sore left knee, day-to-day.
Jul 10, 2009: Missed 6 games (back injury).
Jul 3, 2009: Back injury, day-to-day.
Sep 13, 2008: Missed 1 game (eye injury).
Sep 12, 2008: Eye injury, day-to-day.
Aug 3, 2008: Missed 5 games (back spasms).
Jul 28, 2008: Back spasms, day-to-day.
Apr 14, 2008: Missed 1 game (right shoulder injury).
Apr 13, 2008: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Apr 5, 2008: Missed 1 game (right shoulder injury).
Apr 4, 2008: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Oct 1, 2007: Missed the last 5 games of the regular season (shoulder injury).
Sep 26, 2007: Shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Jun 19, 2007: Missed 3 games (flu).
Jun 15, 2007: Flu, day-to-day.
Apr 26, 2007: Missed 1 game (eye injury).
Apr 25, 2007: Eye injury, day-to-day.
Apr 18, 2007: Missed 1 game (left wrist injury).
Apr 17, 2007: Left wrist injury, day-to-day.
Apr 7, 2007: Missed 5 games (sprained knee).
Mar 31, 2007: Sprained knee, 15-day DL.

Shoulder and knee maladies have proven especially troublesome. Sanchez is largely the same aggressive, high-contact hitter with just a smidge of extra-base power. However, he has posted the highest K rate of his career (16.6 K%), and his percentage of contact within the strike zone (89.7 percent) is below the 92-96% range he hovered around from 2005-2008 (88% MLB average).

Joba Chamberlain, Yankees

Chamberlain’s first year as a full-time starter has not gone as smoothly as Yankee fans or fantasy owners would have liked, as the former Cornhusker has posted a mediocre 4.70 XFIP in 146.2 IP. The big righty, who turns 23 tomorrow, has missed a decent number of bats (7.61 K/9). However, his control has lagged behind.

Joba has posted a paltry 54.9 First-Pitch Strike%, compared to the 58% major league average. His hard mid-80’s slider (+0.98 runs/100) and high-70’s curve (+0.3 runs/100) have fooled hitters, but Chamberlain’s 92.5 MPH gas has often been torched (-1.15 runs/100).

The 6-2, 230 pounder’s struggles will likely spur more unwarranted discussion of his long-term role, but it’s important to keep in mind that Chamberlain is still very young and is surely capable of better in the rotation in the years to come. It’s extremely difficult to conjure up an argument for pushing him to the ‘pen.

Nick Markakis, Orioles

The 25 year-old Markakis remains a valuable commodity, but it’s hard not to be let down by his 2009 campaign. Over his first three seasons in the majors, Markakis made steady offensive improvement:

2006: 8.1 BB%, .346 wOBA
2007: 8.7 BB%, .366 wOBA
2008: 14.3 BB%, .389 wOBA

The lefty batter was an on-base fiend last year, swinging at just 18 percent of pitches thrown out of the strike zone. This year, Markakis has chased 23.4% of pitches off the dish. His walk rate has nearly been cut in half (7.5 BB%), with his wOBA falling back down to his rookie level (.345 wOBA). After posting ISO’s of .185 in each of 2007 and 2008, Markakis has compiled a .156 mark this year (again, right around his rookie production of .157).

Fausto Carmona, Indians

In late May, we took a gander at the apocalyptic path Carmona’s career has taken since his banner 2007 season. He pitched 215 frames, posted a sub-four FIP and generated a huge number of worm-burners (64.3 GB%) with his low-to-mid-90’s sinker.

Since that massive increase in workload (he pitched 74.2 major league innings in 2006), Carmona has been a train wreck. He walked 5.22 batters per nine innings in 2008, and has actually shown slightly worse control in 2009 (5.37 BB/9). While still a groundball pitcher, Carmona isn’t posting the same kind of extreme rates (54.2 GB% in 2009). His sinker has gone from a plus pitch to possibly the worst in the big leagues:

Carmona’s runs/100 pitches value with his sinker:

2007: +0.57
2008: -0.15
2009: -2.26

Suffice it to say, that’s a problem when Fausto still tosses a sinker nearly three-quarters of the time (73% in 2009). Carmona’s percentage of pitches in the strike zone has fallen from 51.4% in 2007 to a lousy 44.9% in 2009 (49-50% MLB average). It’s sad to say, but the 25 year-old has turned into the A.L.’s answer to Daniel Cabrera.

Milton Bradley, Cubs

Though some Chicago columnists may claim otherwise, Bradley probably isn’t responsible for global warming, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and stalled health care legislation. That being said, the 31 year-old switch-hitter’s first year in the Friendly Confines has been anything but amicable. The Cubs suspended Bradley for the rest of the 2009 season, though the MLBPA is considering filing a grievance.

If Milton has indeed played his final game this season, he ends up with a disappointing .345 wOBA that pales in comparison to his .405 mark in 2007 and .423 figure in 2008. Bradley was still extremely patient (14.4 BB%), but his pop was nowhere to be found. His ISO, .239 in ’07 and .242 in ’08, plunged to .140 with the Cubs.

Bradley didn’t hit the DL, but he missed time with groin, calf and knee problems. He continued to crush fastballs (+1.21 runs/100) and sliders (+0.85), but he was downright Pedro Cerrano-like against curveballs (-2.84 runs/100) and changeups (-0.85). He’s owed $9M in 2010 and $12M in 2011.

It is a three Hernandez and two Martinez week! Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 20

Fausto Carmona – Since returning from the minors, Carmona has pitched well, with a 2.65 ERA in three starts. But he has allowed more walks (10) than strikeouts (7), his WHIP checks in at 1.588 and his record is 0-1. If those are the numbers he puts up when he is pitching well, what happens with a bad outing or two? Leave him on the bench for his two starts this week.

Manny Parra – It is tough to win games with a 1.84 WHIP yet that is exactly what Parra is doing. He has won his last four starts despite a 6.48 ERA. Unless you are desperate for wins, they are simply not worth the ratios. And with those ratios there is little chance that the wins will continue to follow.

Oliver Perez – Before being sent to the minors, Perez had a 9.97 ERA in five games. Since returning he has posted a 3.72 ERA in seven games. With Perez you are sure of two things: his WHIP is going to be terrible and he is going to pile up strikeouts (38 in 38.2 IP in his last seven games). His ERA has been acceptable since returning so the wild card is his wins total. In his last three starts he left the game with the lead only to see the bullpen blow wins for him. Perez does well against lefty-heavy lineups and this week he faces the Braves and the Phillies. He has won six of 10 career decisions versus Atlanta and Philadelphia features lefty swingers Utley, Howard and Ibanez. Put him in your lineup this week if you can take the WHIP damage.

David Price – The HR rate has really hurt Price this season, especially on the road. He has allowed 13 HR this year and nine of those have come away from Tropicana Field. In home games, Price is 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.286 WHIP. Make sure he is active this week with home starts against Baltimore and Texas.

Scott Richmond – Before going to the disabled list with shoulder tendinitis, Richmond was pitching his best ball of the season, going seven or more innings in his last three starts before hitting the DL. His first start back was rough and then he allowed 3 ER in 6 IP his last outing in Yankee Stadium. Richmond has a tough start versus Josh Beckett this week, but I still like him as a two-start pitcher this week with his two home games.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 20 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lincecum, Beckett, F. Hernandez, Burnett, Verlander, Carpenter, Jimenez, Nolasco, Lowe, Hanson, Buehrle, Dempster, Scherzer, Billingsley, E. Santana, Feldman, Hunter, Norris, Liriano, Pavano, Garland, P. Martinez, Lilly, Bannister, Correia, L. Hernandez, Villanueva, Hart, Bailey, Mazzaro, D. Hernandez, Bell, Jef Weaver, Boggs, J. Martinez, Stammen, Carrillo, Berken.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 18 and how they did.

Baker – Advised to start. W, 4.76 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.15 WHIP (2 starts)
Latos – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.08 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.15 WHIP (2)
Morton – Advised to start. 4.09 ERA, 5 Ks, 1.55 WHIP (2)
Penny – Advised to sit. 7.50 ERA, 5 Ks, 1.33 WHIP (1)
Wells – Advised to sit. W, 4.26 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.42 WHIP (2)

Remember when Fausto Carmona looked like Cleveland’s ace-in-waiting? As a 23 year-old back in 2007, Carmona compiled a 3.94 Fielding Independent ERA in 215 innings pitched. The Dominican Republic native employed a devastating, hard sinker (93.5 MPH) that generated groundballs by the bucketful (64.3%, bested only by Derek Lowe). That extreme worm burning, coupled with a passable strikeout rate (5.73 K/9) and fairly sharp control (2.55 BB/9) led many to believe that the 6-4, 230 pounder could be headed for a Lowe-esque career path, minus the years of relief work and long wait to crack the starting rotation.

These days, though? Carmona looks more Sean Lowe than Derek Lowe.

Carmona’s 2008 season was marred by a hip injury that limited him to 120 innings. His FIP climbed nearly a full run, up to 4.89. While he still kept his infielders on their toes (63.5 GB%), his K rate fell to 4.33 per nine innings. Far more troubling was his total lack of control: Carmona’s walk rate soared to 5.22, the highest figure among all starters tossing at least 120 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio plummeted from 2.25 in 2007 to a Daniel Cabrera-like 0.83 in 2008. Ironically, Cabrera (1.06 K/BB) actually beat Carmona, who ranked dead last in K/BB ratio among starting pitchers.

Entering 2009, there still remained hope that a mended Carmona would round into his 2007 form. But with each passing, disappointing outing, that looks less and less likely. In 58.2 innings, the 25 year-old owns a wretched 5.62 FIP, the product of 5.37 K/9 and 5.83 BB/9 (Carmona again brings up the rear among qualified starters in walks per nine innings and ranks second-to-last in K/BB ratio. Thanks, Jon Garland.)

Carmona’s collapse has been stunning, both for its suddenness and his age. Like the recently DFA’D Cabrera, Carmona is a young man who has seemingly lost every mote of consistency and talent that made him one of the more impressive young hurlers a few seasons ago. Relying heavily upon a sinking fastball, Fausto has lost velocity on the offering since his banner ’07 season:

2007: thrown 75% of the time, 93.5 MPH
2008: thrown 80.9%, 92.8 MPH
2009: thrown 81.4%, 92.5 MPH

Only Colorado’s Aaron Cook (86.6%) goes to his sinker more often than Carmona among starters. Disturbingly, that once-hellish pitch is now decidedly below-average. Take a look at Carmona’s not-so-turbo sinker, through Fan Graphs’ new pitch linear weights section. Below are Fausto’s run values for his fastball per 100 pitches, from 2007 to 2009 (a positive number indicates that a pitch saves more runs than average per 100 pitches, while a negative figure indicates that the pitch is below average):

2007: +0.57
2008: -0.15
2009: -1.52

Over the past few years, Carmona’s sinker has lost over two runs per 100 pitches in value. When that’s your bread-and-butter offering and a pitch thrown over three-quarters of the time, you have a serious problem on your hands.

Locating just 44.5% of his pitches within the strike zone (49% MLB average), Carmona has seen opponents become increasingly content to just keep the bat on their shoulders. Predictably, his three-year down slope in placing his offerings in the zone has coincided with fewer and fewer hacks by opponents:

2007: 51.4 Zone%, 47.9 Swing%
2008: 50.8 Zone%, 45.1 Swing%
2009: 44.5 Zone%, 42.9 Swing%

Carmona’s fall has been as severe as any pitcher’s in recent years, as he’s gone from a hurler worth 4.3 Wins in 2007 to a guy who’s just keeping his head above the replacement level waters in 2009 (0.2 WAR so far). In what’s shaping up to be another disappointing summer in Cleveland, Carmona’s devolving from organizational pillar to pinata ranks as one of the most bitter pills to swallow. Maybe those midges were a warning sign.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 8.

Fausto Carmona – In three of his four seasons in the majors, including this one, Carmona’s ERA has been above five. This year he has as many walks as strikeouts. And while his LD% (18.8) and FB% (24.4) look very good, they are the worst marks of his career. Instead of wondering if you should start him, perhaps you should be scanning the waiver wire looking for his replacement.

Scott Kazmir – He is owned in 95 percent of CBS Sports leagues and was a starter in 64 percent of them last week. And he’s been terrible in his last five starts. His velocity is down under 90 for the first time in his career, his command has gotten worse (5.72 BB/9) and his SwSTR% is nearly half of what it was a year ago, down to 6.4 percent. Move him to the bench so you don’t get stuck with two bad starts.

John Maine – While Johan Santana has been struggling for run support, the Mets’ bats come alive when Maine is on the mound. For the season, the Mets have scored 5.77 runs per game for Maine and in his last five games they’ve given him an average of 6.6 runs. Maine has pitched well in four of those last five games and has picked up three wins in that span. He gets two starts at home this week, facing the Nationals and the Marlins.

Sean Marshall – His FIP is a run higher than his actual ERA due in large part to his poor HR rate. But Marshall faces the Pirates and the Dodgers this week, two teams that are below-average in hitting homers. Despite giving up five HR in his last four starts, Marshall has pitched well enough to give the Cubs a chance to win each of them.

Brad Penny – With an ERA above six, Penny hits the road this week to face Toronto, which leads the league in runs scored, and Minnesota, which just put up 20 runs in one game. Penny’s velocity is fine but he’s not getting nearly as many swings on balls out of the strike zone. In 2007 he had a 29 percent O-Swing% and this year it’s down to 17.5 percent. And when they do swing, he’s not getting as many misses, either, as his 5.1 percent SwStr% is a career-low. Not surprisingly, Penny’s 4.60 K/9 is the worst mark of his career.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 8 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, Garza, Gallardo, Vazquez, Dempster, W. Rodriguez, Harang, Lester, E. Santana, Liriano, E. Jackson, Danks, Carpenter, Volstad, Millwood, Maholm, Meche, De la Rosa, D. Davis, Harrison, Sanchez, Hughes, Guthrie, Cecil, Lannan, Blackburn, Braden, Stults, Medlen, Moyer, Pavano, Anderson, Gaudin, Augenstein, Jakubauskas, Milton, Eaton.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 6 and how they did.

Slowey – Advised to sit. W, 10 K, 1.98 ERA, 1.24 WHIP (2 starts)
Masterson – Advised to start. 9 K, 2.92 ERA, 1.46 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to start 5 K, 2.77 ERA, 1.15 WHIP (2)
Zimmerman – Advised to start. 14 K, 8.18 ERA, 1.73 WHIP (2)
Hampton – Advised to sit. W, 3 K, 7.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (1)