Archive for Fantasy

Here’s the original post. No dilly-dallying, let’s dive in.

1) Steven Kwan is a top-30 outfielder.

Kwan walk more than he stuck out, and while he only hit six home runs, he stole 19 bases and slashed .298/.373/.400 (124 wRC+). Only five qualified hitters had a better strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB), and only Luis Arraez had a lower swinging strike rate (SwStr%). Ultimately, Kwan finished the season 19th among outfielders on Razzball’s Player Rater. The haters will point to volume (he accumulated 622 plate appearances) but Kwan finished 20th among qualified outfielders on a per-game basis—that is, ignoring volume.

You may remember Kwan started the season scorching hot, then predictably fell back to earth, which entailed a somewhat grueling slump. Da Haters pointed to this slump as an indication of Kwan’s lack of viability as a Major Leaguer rather than simple gravity. The slump actually cost Kwan some starting time—he could’ve notched 700 PA if the Guardians didn’t lose faith in him in May, like everyone else did—but he rebounded by showcasing his tools. More excitingly, his counting stats increased as the season wore on, and he compiled three home runs, seven steals, and a .309 average in September alone.

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It’s cliché to say “you know the drill,” but you do! You do, indeed, know the drill! The one thing about bold predictions that gets me up on my soapbox every year is what it means to be bold. There’s bold for shock value, bold to be bold. (Or, not bold enough—its own problem.) And then there’s sufficiently bold (per market sentiments) but readily achievable.

Much of this is qualitative, so “sufficiently bold” and “readily achievable” are eye-of-the-beholder types of descriptors. But we can at least measure sufficient boldness using average draft position (ADP) data. All fantasy baseball websites use them; I use National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) data because it involves high-stakes players. (Let it be known that high-stakes does not always equal high-talent, but that’s altogether another soapbox.) Moreover, we can filter NBFC ADP by date range, so I can leverage ADP specifically from the final week of spring training by which time ambiguous spring training storylines have solidified.

I’m proud of my success this year. I hope a few of these picks were worthwhile for you, if you happened to heed them exclusively because of this post. That’d be quite brave of you!

(“Year-end rank” courtesy of Razzball’s player rater.)

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Last offseason, over brunch at some restaurant in Phoenix, Brad Johnson and I, in coordination with FanGraphs’ Powers That Be, revived a recently deceased series about prospects. We had to attribute to it a new name, but its purpose remained steadfast: to identify intriguing but unheralded Minor League talent. This is the corner of fantasy baseball in which Brad and I thrive. I’m not one for series — I never thought I had any good ideas — but I had always wanted to do something like this, but for fantasy purposes.

Alas, Peripheral Prospects was born, a phoenix from the ashes. (A good metaphor, this, because in Phoenix we ate at a restaurant with ashtrays.) We published every Monday steadily for months until the grind of the season wore us down. Just because Cody Bellinger tailed off the in second half doesn’t mean we remember his 2019 season as a bust. I’d like to think our weak finish sullies not our fine season. Several WARs, at least.

Here, I’d like to highlight some of my favorite peripheral prospects of 2019. (Brad will separately highlight his own, for I can ascertain why he picked the players he picked but it is better that he articulate his rationale on his own terms.) Let’s not waste any more time. Here are my 10 favorite peripheral prospects, sorted ascending according to their appearance in the series.

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Anyone within arm’s reach of my Twitter account is so. bleeping. tired. of me talking about Mike Tauchman.

But I have to bring him up. Tauchman was literally the first Peripheral Prospect. He led off the inaugural post. It’s imperative we revisit our old friend, because guess what? He is the 7th-best fantasy hitter the last 30 days, per ESPN’s Player Rater.

Seventh-best. Not out of just Yankees, not out of just outfielders — out of all hitters. His recent success alone has made this entire series worth it.

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Jake Bauers entered the 2019 season a kind of wide-awake sleeper to many fantasy analysts looking to target cheap value at first base or in the outfield. Per National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) average draft position (ADP) data, Bauers was drafted, on average, 230th overall, 24th among first basemen, and 66th among outfielders — effectively your last corner infielder or outfielder, or your first bench bat. You weren’t depending on him too gravely for production; the cost to acquire Bauers was typically low, making any sunk costs a bit easier to swallow.

Still, it has been disappointing to see Bauers follow up 2018’s 11-homer, 6-steal half-season with mediocrity. Yes, his rookie campaign featured a miserable .201/.316/.384 line, but it was marred by a meager .252 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and a 26.8% strikeout rate (K%) that seemed far out of whack relative to his roughly league-average 11.0% swinging strike rate (SwStr%). It stood to reason, at first glance, Bauers would cash in on some positive regression to post a fairly solid slash line while posting double-digit home runs and stolen bases — and it didn’t seem altogether far-fetched to hope so.

Ultimately, it never came to fruition. In almost an identical number of plate appearances, Bauers replicated his home run tally but with a lower isolated power (.146 ISO to .183 ISO), a feeble stolen base rate (two steals on five attempts, versus six on 12 last year), and worse plate discipline despite a better whiff rate. Cleveland had enough and eventually optioned Bauers with his career line standing at 22 homers, eight steals, and a .218/.312/.381 line in 771 plate appearances.

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From last week’s edition of Peripheral Prospects:

Alex likes to weave word-things before naming names. I’m impatient. Let’s jump straight into the action.

Brad’s not wrong.

This is Peripheral Prospects. We seek to identify obscure future fantasy contributors. Let’s take the plunge. Only four this week, because I’m feeling picky.

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Yo! It’s been a hot minute (read: a month) since Brad or I published a Peripheral Prospects piece. Sometimes, life gets in the way. Such distinct absences aren’t so bad, after all — it allowed us a little more time for some of the season’s early conquests to flesh out in larger samples.

Around this time last year, I became enamored with a hitter about whom no one knew hardly anything at the time but of whom everyone has heard now: Jeff McNeil.

alonso @ AA: .315/.442/.574, 18.2% K, 16.0% BB
mcneil @ AA: .329/.405/.633, 9.7% K, 9.3% BB

I DON'T CARE IF HE'S 26, GREAT HITTERS HAVE BROKEN OUT AT 27 BEFORE

— Alex "Oxlade" Chamberlain (@DolphHauldhagen) June 14, 2018

At the time, Pete Alonso was slaughtering Double-A pitching. But so, too, was McNeil, with a strikeout rate (K%) below 10% — and a higher isolated power (ISO) than that of Alonso, the Mets’ premier power-oriented prospect. Between Double-A and Triple-A, Alonso finished with the higher ISO (.295 to .274), but McNeil, thanks to superior contact skills and (non-homer) batted ball efficacy, produced a wRC+ almost 20 points higher.

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Sorry for the late post, y’all. With Memorial Day, spending time with nieces and nephews, and then getting sick because of said nieces and nephews, it has been a bumpy week.

It’s a good mission statement, Brad. The mission statement in question: Peripheral Prospects seeks to identify obscure future fantasy contributors. That seems good, right? Let’s roll with it.

I missed last week with travel and then subsequent illness. There’s a lot of housekeeping to catch up on!

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Behold! Another installment of Peripheral Prospects, the low-price, off-brand fantasy baseball version of Fringe Five. Brad Johnson and I have brought something on the order of five minor leaguers per week who make us feel — like, really feel. These players tend to be unloved and unheralded but very much deserving of love and, uh, herald, not unlike the two authors of this series.

Some quick housekeeping, per usual:

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This is the Fantasy Fringe Five, but is no longer named as such. This is the last time you’ll see Brad or me use that alliterative phrase to describe this series. And that’s it! Keepin’ it cryptic. This is now, until or unless we come up with something better, Peripheral Prospects. (We welcome recommendations! Leave a comment.)

That said, we might start steering this ship more deliberately in our own direction. In the spirit of Carson Cistulli’s series after which this is now loosely modeled, we will sometimes follow its self-imposed restrictions and other times elect to deviate from them — most probably, the one underlined below:

In light of same, eligibility for The Fringe Five will require (for the present, at least) the following:
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