Archive for Fantasy Starting Pitchers

The 2014 season was a cruel one for Justin Verlander. To the fantasy baseball players who owned him for most of it and drafted, bought, kept, or traded for the formerly elite right-hander, the 2014 season felt approximately as cruel.

The pitcher surely expected more after a relatively – extra emphasis on relatively – disappointing 2013 effort that saw his walk rate jump above 8% and his average heat velocity dip below 94 mph for the first time since 2008 on his way to a 3.46 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He and fantasy owners didn’t get it, though. The 4.54 ERA (117 ERA-, his worst mark in the category since his debut season), 1.40 WHIP, and 17.8% strikeout rate tell the tale of a mostly abysmal season, in fact.

Now what? The last time Verlander had fantasy owners this puzzled was, incidentally, after his 2008 campaign. The next year turned out to be pretty good. That hurler was 26, however, and his four-seam fastball averaged 95.6 mph. This guy will be 32, and … who knows?

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I have been skeptical of Bud Norris, as perhaps others have been, for much of this season. His 3.68 (4.36 FIP, 4.26 xFIP, 4.17 SIERA) ERA isn’t spectacular, but it’s really the first time in his career in which he’s produced results notably better, really even at all better, than his ERA indicators.

Of course, there are a couple of simple things at which to point that could sort of easily help to explain Norris’ 2014 success. He’s posting a career-best walk rate of 7.7%. His fastball velocity is back near its peaks of his break-in seasons. His opponents’ BABIP (.284) and his LOB% (78.4), notably better than his career marks and league average, hint at the possibility of increased fortune for the right-hander this season. I could probably stop there and call it something close to a perfect storm.

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The St. Louis Cardinals have added Justin Masterson to their rotation. The new team should be good for the right-hander, as Jeff Sullivan wrote on the non-fantasy side. Bernie Miklasz, long-time, reputable Cards beat guy and columnist, highlighted many of the same reasons. Potential positives:

• Masterson moves from perhaps the worst defensive team to perhaps the best
• If his knee is sound, which it reportedly is, then his command, velocity, etc. should rebound

In general, Masterson seems to be in a much better position to rebound for fantasy owners already. All he’s had to do is spend nearly four weeks on the disabled list and then pack his bags.

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The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim couldn’t have asked for Hector Santiago’s first season with the club to begin much worse. He’d had a good spring, with a 3.63 ERA and a 24:9 K/BB, but he opened 0-6 with a 5.19 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 4.7 BB/9 and 1.56 HR/9 in seven starts (34 2/3 innings). The Halos moved him into the bullpen a couple of days after his May 7 start, against the Yankees. He’d made two relief appearances, eight days between them, before the club optioned him to Triple-A Salt Lake.

The moves may be for the best. Mike Scioscia acknowledged that his team has been putting the left-hander in a tough position. Although the skipper almost certainly didn’t mean to implicate Santiago’s teammates, it’s clear that the rest of this heavenly cast hasn’t helped him much, start by start. Jose Serrano looked into how so a couple of weeks ago at Halo Hangout. Basically, the Angels have played poor defense, and they did so particularly on nights when Santiago pitched. They gave him abominable run support.

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It’s a shame that pretty much no one saw this coming. The question, then: What now?

Jordan Lyles, of the Colorado Rockies, has a 2.62 ERA. Yes, it’s after only seven starts (44 2/3 stanzas). But it’s kind of supported, with a 3.41 FIP, a 3.60 xFIP and a 3.76 SIERA. Those figures say that a correction is coming, but not necessarily the kind you’d expect for a pitcher who makes half of his starts at Coors Field and has a 13.6 K%. If you want real absurdity, check out his 1.25 ERA in three home starts (21 2/3 innings).

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I’m a sucker for cool comeback stories – at least enough that I don’t readily dismiss fringe players, former top prospects and those with supposedly newfound abilities for one reason or another who are the subjects of them. I can’t help but wonder if they’ll help my fantasy teams, so I do some research and give them a chance to convince me.

Of course, most of them don’t, just as most fantasy owners had suspected. But they’re worthwhile exercises to me, nonetheless. The rate of return in terms of quantity is low, but the potential rate of return relative to the investment can be great.

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Okay, technically Petco Park is in the 619 area code, however Kanye West never had an album that sounded similar to “619s & Hearbreaks.” With that out of the way, we can now take a look at my thoughts on a long time favorite, Andrew Cashner. Minds smarter than my own have already compiled the consensus starting pitcher rankings, but there was dissenting opinion regarding Cashner. His highest rankings were 35 and his lowest was 64, meaning that the jury was still out on Cashner’s ability to put up strong fantasy numbers as a starter.

There were plenty of reasons to fall in love with Cashner’s ability. He kept the ball on the ground with his 52.1% ground ball rate. Moving from Wrigley Field and the windy city to spacious Petco Park should have (and did) help his home run rate. Last season Cashner managed to post a 3.09 ERA and trimmed more than a walk off of his BB/9 rate. So why am questioning my love for Cashner?
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On top of sharing the present author’s nationality, Hyun-Jin Ryu is noteworthy for his strong rookie season. After posting seven spectacular seasons in the Korean Baseball Organization, Ryu was signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers in early December of last year. As the first South Korean player to be posted, some wondered how much the difference in competitive talent would hurt Ryu. One season doesn’t make a career, however it seems as though Ryu is the real deal.
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Given his previous prospect pedigree, it wasn’t terribly shocking to see Jarrod Parker perform so well in his first season in the big leagues. However, throw in the fact that he missed the entire 2010 season due to Tommy John’s surgery and now there was suddenly doubt cast over the young hurler.

Fortunately for himself — and for his future fantasy owners — Parker came roaring back in double-A in 2011 and earned himself a late season MLB start. He was seasoned for all of four games in triple-A in 2012 and then earned another call up. Despite pitching a grand total of 20.2 triple-A innings, according to ERA, Parker hit his stride almost immediately. His first half 2.96 ERA was sparkling, despite some underlying issues.
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Terrible TV commercials aside, it is hard to argue that “going to Jered”  has been anything but a good thing. For the second straight year Jered Weaver has ranked in the top 10 in terms of qualified starting pitchers ERA. Sure, ERA isn’t the most reliable evaluation metric, but for fantasy purposes it clearly suits us quite well. Considering that it has been almost 650 innings since Weaver last posted a seasonal ERA above 3.02, it’s safe to say that Weaver is an elite pitcher.

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