Archive for fantasy saves

The stakes were high for Nicky Delmonico when he came up in the bottom of the ninth with runners on the corners and one out on Thursday night. The Red Sox were clinging to a 4-3 lead, but the normally-reliable Ryan Brasier was on the mound. Delmonico got the better of Brasier, lofting a slider on the outer third of the plate just beyond the outstretched glove of Jackie Bradley Jr. and into the seats.

While Brasier had entered the game against the White Sox having allowed only two runs over 13.2 innings (to go along with six saves), both runs had come on solo homers. Delmonico’s shot left Brasier with his first loss and second blown save, and his profile may suggest that homer-proneness could be a chronic issue. He has a career 36.9 percent ground ball rate, and he also draws a lot of swings in the strike zone with a career 75.2 percent Z-Swing%.
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Heading into Tuesday night’s game with the Pirates, Jose Leclerc had not pitched in a high-leverage situation in nine days. His two most recent appearances occurred in blowouts, as he tried to work out the command issues that had plagued him for much of the season. Chris Woodward ended Leclerc’s sabbatical from closing on Tuesday night, deploying him in a save situation, as the Rangers held a 3-0 lead going into the top of the ninth.

Leclerc had actually been highly effective against righties this season, holding them to a .130 Avg prior to Tuesday, but to shut down the Pirates, he had to run the gauntlet of switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds and Cole Tucker and left-handed Adam Frazier. He did not retire any of them, and Frazier’s single scored Reynolds, cutting the Rangers’ lead to two runs. Leclerc was on the verge of getting out of the jam, striking out Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco in succession, but Josh Bell (another switch-hitter) laced a game-tying double into left center. Fortunately for Leclerc, Bell unsuccessfully tried to extend the double into a triple, so he avoided further damage.
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For the second night in a row, Emilio Pagan notched a save for the Rays against the Royals, tossing a perfect inning in both contests. He is not anywhere near the top of the most-added lists on ESPN and CBS, but he is at the very top of Yahoo’s list. Pagan was called into closer duty on both occasions because the usual candidates — Jose Alvarado and Diego Castillo — were unavailable due to heavy workloads over the weekend.

Because Kevin Cash sent us a strong signal that Pagan is next-in-line for saves after Alvarado and Castillo, he now sits behind the Rays’ two main high-leverage relievers in our closer grid. Even without saves, Pagan is not a bad reliever to own in holds leagues and deeper formats. He gets swings-and-misses (career 14.1 percent SwStr%) and a ton of popups, and he throws strikes, making him a reliable bet to post a low WHIP.
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By now, we have all become aware of the home run explosion that’s occurred in the early weeks and the appearance of a juiced ball. High-leverage relievers have not been immune to the deluge of dingers. Josh Hader, Matt Barnes and Kenley Jansen all allowed home runs on Sunday that led to a loss or a blown save. The three normally-reliable relievers have teamed up to allow seven home runs over their last 8.1 innings combined. Hader has allowed homers in each of his last three appearances, Barnes has allowed one in each of his last two outings, and Jansen has given up two homers over his last three appearances.

Despite the rash of long balls, it’s far too soon to be concerned about any of the three. Hader is still missing bats at a stratospheric rate, sporting a 22.8 percent SwStr%. However, his flyball rate of 72.2 percent is even more otherworldly. It’s nearly double the major league average of 36.7 percent. Not only is Hader letting the ball get lofted, but hitters are making a lot of hard contact on those airborne balls, averaging 97.4 mph in exit velocity (per Baseball Savant). As he accumulates more innings, this could become a real problem barring some serious regression, even with his healthy whiff rate.
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I know it’s early, but I think we can spot a pattern with Mychal Givens.

It’s fair to call Givens the Orioles’ primary closer, but a better (if not catchier) title would be “guy who comes in to clean up a mess in the eighth inning.” On Thursday night, and for the fifth time this season, Givens was called upon with runners on base in the eighth inning. Paul Fry and Evan Phillips had already allowed the Rays to whittle a 5-2 lead down to 5-4, but Givens restored order by getting the final two outs. In coming back out for the ninth inning, Givens had a chance to collect his first save of the season, but a one-out solo shot by Avisail Garcia ruined that.
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The Phillies, Red Sox and Twins have made it difficult to know who we can rely on for saves, but that’s been pretty much by design. Suddenly, the Braves’ bullpen has become possibly the toughest one to figure out.

When the Braves placed Arodys Vizcaino (shoulder) on the IL on Sunday, that appeared to actually simplify their bullpen situation, as A.J. Minter figured to inherit virtually all of the save opportunities. The lefty fared well enough on Sunday night, pitching a perfect ninth inning in a Braves 7-3 win over the Mets. The stakes were a little higher on Tuesday night, as Minter was charged with keeping the score knotted at 6-6, giving his offense a chance to top the Diamondbacks in the bottom of the ninth inning with a single run. It took only two pitches for Minter to allow the Diamondbacks to surge ahead, as Christian Walker drove a cutter in the middle of the strike zone for a solo home run. He was charged with two more runs when Jacob Webb allowed an Adam Jones double that brought in two inherited baserunners.
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Perplexing bullpen situations did not get less perplexing on Sunday.

After the Phillies’ 3-1, 14-inning win over the Marlins, I am leaving their portion of the closer grid untouched, but that hardly means that the saves picture is getting clearer. Brian Anderson‘s home run in the bottom of the sixth inning knotted the game up at 1-1, and it would stay that way for seven-and-a-half innings. Because the Phillies were the visiting team, it’s hard to read too much into Gabe Kapler’s choice to use Pat Neshek in the seventh, Adam Morgan and Hector Neris in the eighth and David Robertson in the ninth and 10th.
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Ken Giles‘ nearly perfect season finally hit a snag on Thursday night. Through his first six appearances, the Blue Jays’ closer had not allowed a run through 5.2 innings, and the only baserunners he put on were by way of two singles, a double and a walk. In appearance number seven, Giles started off the bottom of the ninth inning against the Red Sox by getting Andrew Benintendi to ground out, but that would be the last out he would get. After walking Mookie Betts and giving up a Mitch Moreland RBI double, the Blue Jays’ 6-5 lead had vanished.

Then Giles intentionally walked J.D. Martinez, but it backfired, as he loaded the bases with an unintentional walk to Xander Bogaerts and coughed up Rafael Devers‘ walk-off single. Devers’ chopper had an xBA of .100, but he wouldn’t have been in a position to win the game if Giles hadn’t issued three walks, two of which were unintentional. Walks have generally not been an issue for Giles the last couple of seasons, and he has been good at inducing out-of-zone chases throughout his career. Despite the poor results on Thursday night, there is no reason for Giles’ owners to panic.
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We went into Thursday’s skimpy slate of games with eight of the majors’ closer situations marked as committees in our grid, and we are now up to nine. A.J. Minter (shoulder) made his return from the IL on Thursday, and while he did not pitch in a save situation, he was called upon with one out in the ninth inning after Chad Sobotka let a 9-0 lead over the Cubs shrink to a 9-3 lead. Prior to Thursday night’s game, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Minter would share save opportunities with incumbent closer Arodys Vizcaino.
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I came here to defend Greg Holland. But before I do, I want to talk a little about Mark Melancon.

The year was 2015. Melancon’s velocity was down, both on his four-seamer and cutter, through the first two months, but he started to overcome a rough start to the season (.292 Avg allowed through May 15) in the latter part of May. Then his velocity rebounded closer to his 2014 levels over the season’s final four months.
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