Archive for fantasy saves

On a day that was largely devoid of big bullpen developments on the field, an important move was made off of it. On Thursday, the Cubs placed Craig Kimbrel on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to Monday, with right elbow inflammation. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein said that Kimbrel is targeting a return by “the end of next week,” or in other words, not much beyond his eligibility date for activation.

Joe Maddon plans on playing the matchups with save situations while Kimbrel is out. When the Cubs’ closer missed two weeks in August with right knee inflammation, David Phelps, Pedro Strop, Brandon Kintzler, Derek Holland and Rowan Wick all had ninth-inning save opportunities. Each of them could be in the mix this time around, as well as Steve Cishek and Kyle Ryan. Owners should keep tabs on this situation in case Kimbrel’s return is delayed and if someone emerges as a clear primary closing option, but there is no need to pursue one of the potential replacements now.
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For most of the second half, Brad Hand just hasn’t been his usual dominant self, and his problems are getting more acute. Since July 23, the Indians’ closer has a 6.59 ERA, a 2.12 WHIP and an 18.8 percent strikeout rate. Undergirding Hand’s subpar K-rate is an 8.8 percent SwStr%. Until recently, his pitch velocity and movement had been near their normal levels, so there was reason to hope that whatever was hurting Hand’s performance could be easily fixed. However, over his last four outings, his average fastball velocity has been just 91.2 mph, or roughly 2 mph below where it typically had been. The average horizontal movement on Hand’s slider has dipped below five inches in two of his last four appearances, as compared to his season-to-date average of 8.6 inches.

Those changes in Hand’s pitches were not apparent in the results from the first three of those four games. He did not allow a run in any of those performances and gave up only one hit over the three combined innings. On Wednesday night against the White Sox — the fourth of those appearances — things went haywire pretty quickly. Hand started off the top of the ninth inning with an 8-4 lead and began by striking out pinch-hitter Danny Mendick, but that was followed by a Leury García single and a Tim Anderson home run. Now with just a two-run lead, Hand loaded the bases by allowing a single, a walk and then another single. At that point, Terry Francona pulled Hand in favor of Nick Wittgren, who retired Eloy Jiménez and Ryan Goins for his fourth save of the year.
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The Mets’ 11-10 loss to the Nationals on Tuesday night, as heartbreaking as it was, merely reinforced the team’s bullpen hierarchy. Seth Lugo has been used consistently as the closer for the last two-and-a-half weeks (including in the top of the ninth inning in tie games), and he was in line for a two-inning save against the Nationals. He relieved Jacob deGrom in the bottom of the eighth inning after the Mets’ starter gave up a two-run homer to Juan Soto that cut the lead to 5-4, and Lugo retired all three batters he faced. However, when the Mets blew the game open with five runs in the top of the ninth, the save opportunity was gone, and Mickey Callaway opted to let Paul Sewald finish out the game.

In retrospect, it’s easy to say that Callaway should have left Lugo in, as Sewald retired only one of five batters he saw, and he bequeathed a 10-6 lead with runners on first and second base to Luis Avilán. Yet Sewald had been superb since rejoining the Mets from Triple-A Syracuse, allowing one run over 7.1 innings with 13 strikeouts, one walk and four hits allowed. After Sewald departed, Avilán gave up a single to Juan Soto, so Edwin Díaz entered with still only one out and the bases loaded.
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No relief appearance from Sunday’s games was more meaningful than Carlos Carrasco’s inning of work against the Rays. Pitching in his first game since being diagnosed with leukemia in June, Carrasco came in for the bottom of the seventh inning with the Indians behind by a 4-1 score. He began by inducing a pair of ground ball outs, and then Carrasco yielded a Tommy Pham double and a Travis d’Arnaud RBI single. He finished off the inning with a third groundout, this one off the bat of Joey Wendle.

The Reds’ bullpen has had its share of tumult of late, and the roller coaster ride continued on Sunday. They entered the day with a doubleheader against the Cardinals just completed and another doubleheader just ahead of them. In the nightcap of Saturday’s twin bill, Raisel Iglesias let a one-run lead and a split slip away, as Harrison Bader’s RBI single tied the game up at 2-2. He left runners on first and second base with no one out for Kevin Gausman, who allowed Matt Carpenter to hit a walk-off RBI single.
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Ryne Stanek did nothing to dispel the José Ureña-as-closer speculation on Thursday night, as he failed to protect the Marlins’ one-run lead over the Reds. He relieved Jarlin García in the top of the eighth inning with two outs and Joey Votto on first base, and began his outing by walking Eugenio Suárez, which put Votto into scoring position. Aristides Aquino’s single brought Votto home and left Stanek with his third blown save.

To his credit, Stanek came back for the ninth inning and kept the game knotted. The Marlins ultimately prevailed in the bottom of the 12th inning, thanks to Harold Ramirez’s walk-off homer off Raisel Iglesias, who had just entered the game. The loss dropped Iglesias to 2-10, and he now has two losses and a blown save over his last four appearances. Over that 2.2-inning span, he has given up four runs on nine hits, including two home runs. Though the sample is obviously small, there may be something to his 16.7 percent ground ball rate and 69.2 percent hard contact rate during this stretch as an explanation for his struggles. It’s time to lay off Iglesias in daily lineup leagues and to pick up Michael Lorenzen as insurance.
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Héctor Neris has been reliable for much of this season, and especially in the second half. Prior to the Phillies’ current series with the Pirates, Neris had reeled off a string of 13 consecutive appearances — each lasting one full inning — in which he had not allowed a run. That does not fully illustrate how dominant Neris had been, as he allowed only two singles, a double, an unintentional walk and an intentional walk over that span.

In Monday night’s series opener, Neris blew a chance at a save when he gave up a Josh Bell solo homer, which was the first home run he had allowed since July 18. On Tuesday night, Neris entered in the top of the ninth inning with a 4-4 tie, and uncharacteristically, he issued back-to-back walks with one out. He would wind up paying for those free passes when the next batter, Kevin Newman, hit what appeared to be a double play ball to César Hernández. Melky Cabrera was out at second, but Rhys Hoskins dropped the throw from Jean Segura, which allowed Newman to be safe at first base and Adam Frazier to score the go-ahead run.
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The Mets did not need a closer in Sunday’s 2-1 loss to the Braves, but if they did, it would not have been Edwin Díaz. On Saturday, Díaz came in for the top of the ninth inning, one inning after Brad Brach had already allowed the Braves to unlock a 5-5 tie on Ronald Acuña Jr.‘s RBI single. He allowed the Braves to increase their lead on Freddie Freeman’s leadoff homer, and two batters later, Díaz was lifted due to tightness in his trapezius muscle. He was unavailable for Sunday’s game, and an IL stint is not off the table.

For however long Díaz is out, it is probably safe to assume that Seth Lugo would be used as the closer, Lugo already has a pair of saves in August, and he was essentially used as the closer against the Braves on Friday, when he pitched the top of the eighth and ninth innings in a tie game. Regardless of Díaz’s health status, owners — particularly those in saves-plus-holds leagues — should keep tabs on Paul Sewald. Since getting recalled from Triple-A Syracuse on Aug. 16, he has struck out 10 batters in five innings, including four batters in two innings on Sunday. Sewald did allow his first run since getting promoted, giving up Josh Donaldson’s second home run of the game.
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With a handful of closers unavailable to pitch, Thursday turned into Substitute Closer’s Day. The appearance by a fill-in that could signal the biggest fantasy impact was Derek Law’s foray into a save opportunity against the Dodgers. That’s because the Blue Jays’ placed Ken Giles on the paternity list prior to Thursday night’s game, and the incumbent closer could be miss the entire upcoming weekend series in Seattle. In other words, Law could have more save chances over the next three days.

Law had already filled in for Giles on a short-term basis earlier this month, when he was out with right elbow inflammation. Since returning on Aug. 13, Giles has made only three appearances, and only one of those outings was for a save opportunity. Because of Giles’ relative inactivity, we have kept Law in the grid as a co-closer, as it’s conceivable he could get saves if the Jays want to be careful with Giles’ workload.
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On Saturday, Matt Magill became eighth Mariner to record a save this season, and on Tuesday night, he joined a more selective group, becoming the fifth Mariner to record a second save. Given that the Mariners are just 53-73, have a staff with a collective 5.07 ERA that doesn’t hand off many leads in the late innings and have recorded only 26 saves on the season, we can be excused for not having much of an appetite for chasing saves in Seattle. That apathy could be compounded by Magill’s status as a 29-year-old journeyman with a history of pedestrian strikeout rates, questionable control and a propensity for allowing homers.

However, this version of Magill is not the same as the earlier one we may be more familiar with. He is throwing fewer four-seam fastballs, but he has roughly doubled his SwStr% on the pitch from 6.4 percent to 12.9 percent. Magill has also increased his curveball usage, and it’s a pitch that has been less prone to hard contact over the last two season (90.9 mph EV FB/LD) than his four-seamer has been (95.1 mph EV FB/LD). As a result, Magill has a more impressive strikeout rate (28.1 percent) and SwStr% (14.5 percent), and he also has an HR/9 ratio (1.13) that is well below the major league average.
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When the Rockies opened their series against the Marlins on Friday night, it was business as usual for Scott Oberg, who tossed a scoreless inning to record his fifth save of the season. On Saturday, in response to feeling heaviness in his right arm, Oberg ultimately underwent a procedure to remove a blood clot from the arm. He was placed on the IL on Sunday, and in all likelihood, he will not pitch again this season.

With Oberg out, the Rockies turned to recently deposed closer Wade Davis to finish off a game they were leading 4-3 heading into the top of the ninth inning. Davis faced three batters, but he did not retire any of them. He began by walking Jorge Alfaro and then had two runners in scoring position as a result of a Lewis Brinson double. Then Davis blew the save by allowing a Neil Walker single. Carlos Estévez took over from there, but he allowed the Marlins to tack on two more runs, which were both charged to Davis.
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