I came here to defend Greg Holland. But before I do, I want to talk a little about Mark Melancon.
The year was 2015. Melancon’s velocity was down, both on his four-seamer and cutter, through the first two months, but he started to overcome a rough start to the season (.292 Avg allowed through May 15) in the latter part of May. Then his velocity rebounded closer to his 2014 levels over the season’s final four months.
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Welcome to the 2019 RotoGraphs Bullpen Report!
As in past seasons, we will update and publish our team-by-team bullpen grid on a daily basis and provide analysis on relievers to pick up, drop or monitor. I’m unveiling the first iteration of the grid just below, and then we will begin our daily updates beginning next Friday.
With a week to go until Opening Day, Part 2, one-third of the closer situations are still very much in flux. For each of those 10 teams, I have denoted the relievers in the grid as being part of a committee. With the possible exception of the Giants, Diamondbacks and White Sox, a committee is a probable outcome for these teams once the season gets under way.
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Over the last several weeks, I have been writing about the closer picture for teams who are unlikely to contend, but are likely to deal an incumbent closer before the trade deadline. While this year’s Hot Stove season has generally moved slowly, there have been a number of moves and announcements involving relievers lately, so I’m taking the opportunity to update some of the situations I have written about recently. I am also tossing in a couple of closer conundrums from teams that I have yet to address this offseason (including one from a clear contender). Both situations are already starting to vex owners getting ready for drafts.
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The Blue Jays have the highest projected win total (77) of any team I am writing about in this series, but it’s fair to say they will be non-contenders in the AL East. Their biggest moves have been to sign Matt Shoemaker and Freddy Galvis and to trade for Clayton Richard, and they haven’t been linked to any deals for impact players. As currently constituted, they don’t appear to have either the offense or pitching to keep up with the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.
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In this series, I have focused on pitchers who are likely to close for teams that project to be sellers at the deadline, as well as the potential replacement closers for when said pitchers get traded. For most teams, that has meant taking a look at a total of four or five relievers. In the case of the Tigers, there are really only two relievers who matter: Shane Greene and Joe Jimenez. Ron Gardenhire has named Greene as his closer, With Alex Wilson gone, Jimenez remains as the only viable closer-in-waiting, and it’s no secret that he is being groomed to be the Tigers’ next closer.
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Earlier this offseason, it appeared as if Jose Leclerc might get traded rather than be a part of a rebuilding Rangers squad. Then new manager Chris Woodward was reportedly thinking of using his incumbent closer in a variety of relief roles. Now we know that Leclerc isn’t going anywhere — not to another team and not to another role — as Woodward named him as the team’s closer.
If the Rangers fall out of contention as expected, teams will certainly be calling about Leclerc. Also, while Leclerc was one of the best relievers in the majors last season, he is only two years removed from an astronomical 20.0 percent walk rate. As great as Leclerc was in 2018, it is still worth our while to venture out further into the bullpen to see who might have value in 2019.
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Initially, I was not going to include the Padres in this series about bullpens on non-contending teams. I realize that sounds ludicrous, because I don’t actually expect the Padres to hold their own against the Dodgers and Rockies. My focus on selecting teams, however, has been more about effort to contend than about the current makeup of a given roster. Still, even with their pursuit of players like Corey Kluber and Miguel Andujar and all of their emerging young talent, the team could very well be sellers at the trading deadline.
That means incumbent closer Kirby Yates could find himself pitching the latter part of the season someplace where he will have fewer opportunities for saves and fish tacos. There is a case to be made that Yates would be worth keeping around for the 2020 season when the Padres could be in a much better position to contend. However, if they wanted to trade Yates in order to fill another need or get reinforcements for the farm system, they have enough depth to provide a replacement closer and still have quality relievers for other roles.
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The Royals’ closer situation is distinctly different from those of the teams already previewed in this series on bullpens for likely non-contenders. The Marlins and Diamondbacks will almost certainly be auditioning relievers for various roles — including closer — in spring training. Will Smith figures to be the Giants’ opening day closer if he sticks around, but it seem likely he will get dealt. The same goes for the Orioles and Mychal Givens, and if they don’t trade their incumbent closer this spring, it could easily happen at some point during the season.
Wily Peralta would appear to be the Royals’ equivalent of Givens. He took over as the team’s closer shortly after Kelvin Herrera was traded to the Nationals in last June, and he converted all 14 of his save chances. But whereas Givens’ most likely path to losing his job is getting traded to a team that uses him in a different role, Peralta could get ousted as closer without leaving Kansas City. While he throws hard and, at least in 2018, got a lot of weak ground ball contact, there is little else in Peralta’s skill set that suggests he can be a consistently effective closer.
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Whether you’re measuring by WAR, SIERA or saves plus holds, Will Smith and Tony Watson were the Giants’ most valuable relievers in 2018. (If we include non-qualifiers, Pablo Sandoval had the lowest SIERA, but I’m not going to dwell on this.) When you think about non-contending teams who don’t need the luxury of going into the season multiple top-flight relievers, the Giants should come to mind first. So it should hardly be surprising that Smith and Watson’s names have been popping up in trade rumors.
Several teams have contacted the Giants about both relievers, and with bigger names like Zach Britton, Andrew Miller and David Robertson recently coming off the board, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi recognizes that the duo could be a good fit for small market teams still looking for relief help. Even if the Giants dealt both Smith and Watson, they would have a plethora of lefties still in place to fill that need in their bullpen.
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Unlike the first two subjects of this series, the Marlins and Orioles, the Diamondbacks were contenders in 2018, at least until they went 8-19 in September. Now with Paul Goldschmidt and Patrick Corbin gone — and with A.J. Pollock presumably signing with another team — it’s hard to see them keeping pace with the Dodgers and Rockies.
That means the Diamondbacks could look to deal relievers at some point in 2019, making them one of those annoying teams with persistently fluid bullpen situations. Torey Lovullo has indicated that he is inclined to give Archie Bradley the first shot at being the team’s closer, though he also hinted that he may be quicker to make a change in roles if his closer struggles. Bradley had a difficult second half of 2018, compiling a 6.58 ERA and 1.54 WHIP, so even if the Diamondbacks are surprise contenders, there is no reason to think that he would be immune to losing the closer’s job if he actually won it coming out of spring training.
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